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ABX Barrick Gold Beat Down Dog may Lead the NEXT GDX BuLL?Longer term trade setup for Canadians in RRSP or TFSA Since no shorts can be taken in RRSP or TFSA in Canada be patient and plan out the longer term longs with the highest probability of working out. The being patient part is still a significant challenge for myself. Two options for entry if things work out and ABX gets this low. Like anything else in life there is no gaurantee price will Reverse but if it does it is best to be prepared and have a plan. Plan your trade and trade your plan. $USDOLLAR Norm Winski 2018 vs 1937 Blood Red Moon Astro Chart calls GOLD Bottom REVERSAL HTTPS://PBS.TWIMG.COM/MEDIA/DJHVVO5WSAAIXPX.JPG
ALong
by gann1000
Gold Mercury Retrograde and Friday Blood RED MoonThe uncertainty surrounding the ongoing trade war between the US and China has been driving the price of gold lower, instead of higher, as would normally be the case in times of heightened geopolitical risk. This is due to the close correlation between gold and the Chinese yuan which has remained firm in recent months. The Chinese government has allowed the Chinese currency to weaken in order to offset the drag on Chinese growth caused by US tariffs on billions of dollars worth of goods. Furthermore, mounting signs of a renewed round of monetary easing has also been weighing on the currency. Especially following Monday’s announcement of tax cuts and infrastructure projects and after the PBoC on Wednesday said that a capital requirement for some banks would be eased in order to support lending. From their recent respective peaks back in April, the yuan is down by 8% while gold has lost 9.3%. Most of the relatively worse performance seen in gold has occurred during the past week as the market prepares for what is expected to be a very strong US Q2 growth number on Friday. Gold has once again managed to find support ahead of $1,200/oz, an area which has provided support in the past and which represents a 50% retracement of the $329/oz rally seen between December 2015 and July 2016. For this level to hold, however, it is clear that the dollar appreciation needs to pause or reverse, especially against the yuan as highlighted above. In the week to July 17, gold’s continued slump to a one-year low helped trigger another spate of heavy short-selling by funds. The net-short reached 22,000 lots, just shy of the 24,000 lots record seen in December 2015. Back then this bearish view was reached just before the first US rate hike signalled a low point from where gold rallied strongly. The current gross-short of 132,000 lots has never been seen bigger and it has left gold in a much better position to react to price-friendly news.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by gann1000
1
Silver/Gold Triple Three Pattern? HelpSpent a silly amount of time on this. Every Combo pattern seemed off until I came across this one. Wanted to focus only on Elliot Wave Theory. I'm trying to learn more about combination structures WXY and would welcome an expert opinion if any have one. There's some sort of double corrective structure going on here in Silver, I can just smell it. But can't put my finger on it. I'm reaching far out on this one so it could easily get invalidated, but it corresponds nicely to what I was originally thinking would play out in Gold/Silver over the next year. It took me a very long time before I realized that we might only be half-way through this corrective period, and this is the only structure that fits given that we only have half the price action to speculate off of. Just throwing a stray metals post out into the ether of bitcoin posts. This is the link to the idea: www.google.com
AMEX:SLV
by RHTrading
4
GDX Miners CautionHere's my 2 cents on the miners. Based on the last 7 months or so, it looks like we had 2 cycles and are currently in a 3rd. They range about 109-137 days. In each of these waves you can see three minor waves. If we are currently in the 3rd wave of the 3rd cycle then I would expect it to be LT and drop fairly soon. It shouldn't take out the highs of April unless there is a new trend higher happening? The peaks at "1" have each been lower than the previous, where the lows have all been about the same. I'm really not sure what to make of all this, just sharing...........
AMEX:GDX
by bhowe
1
THE WEEK AHEAD: XOP, EWZ, GDXJIt's somewhat a lather, rinse, repeat of last week, given the fact that we're kind of in-between earnings seasons, with the next to kick off here in a couple of weeks. XOP:* With the underlying somewhat in the middle of its range, I'm more inclined to go directionally neutral here, either via short strangle or iron fly. The 27 delta-ish May 18th 33/38 short strangle is paying 1.26/contract with break evens at 31.74/39.26; for the less aggressively inclined, the 32/39 is paying .84. For both of these, look to take profit at 50% max. The May 18th 30/35/35/41 dynamic iron fly** is paying 2.75 with break evens at 32.25/37.75. Look to take profit at 25% max. EWZ: "The Brazilian" is perennially frisky ... . The May 18th 41/49 is paying 1.13 at the mid with break evens at 39.87/50.13, with the 30/35/35/41 dynamic iron fly paying 3.34. GDXJ:*** My general tendency with GLD, GDX, and GDXJ are bullish assumption setups on weakness. Unfortunately, GLD is at a bit of a high here, and there is divergence between GDX/GDXJ in terms of strength versus the commodity, implying that weakness in gold may drag GDX/GDXJ down, when they're already toward the weak side of their ranges to begin with. Consequently, it may pay to be patient and wait until GDXJ drops to the bottom of its range between 30 and 31 before pulling the trigger on something bullish. Caveats aside, here are three bullish assumption setups: The "spack"**** trade: May 18th 30 short put for .45 with a break even of 29.55. Ride the short put to expiry. If assigned, proceed to sell calls against at or above your cost basis (29.55). The Synthetic Covered Call: May 18th 34 short put (70 delta) for 2.40 with a break even at 31.60. Look to take profit at 50% max (i.e., 1.20/contract). Otherwise, roll out for duration "as is" for additional credit or proceed to cover at or above cost basis (31.60) if assigned. The Poor Man's: May 18th 34 short/Aug 17th 26 long, 6.01 debit for an 8 wide (75% debit/width ratio) with a break even of 32.01 versus 32.15 spot. Look to take profit at 20% of what you paid to put the setup on for (i.e., 1.20/contract). * -- I'm in an XOP May 32/39 I put on last week for around a 1.00/contract. ** -- An iron condor won't pay one-third of the width of the wings here. *** -- I'm already in a long-dated GDX net credit diagonal, so won't be partaking of GDXJ here. **** -- Short Put Acquire Cover.
AMEX:XOP
by NaughtyPines
THE WEEK AHEAD: MU, OIH, EWZ, XOP, GDXJThe only earnings play coming up next week that currently interests me from a premium selling/volatility contraction standpoint is MU -- with a background implied volatility in the 60's -- which announces earnings on Thursday after market close. Neither ORCL nor FDX -- which announce Monday and Tuesday respectively -- have sub-30 implied volatility, although they're probably worth watching to see if their implied's bump up closer to the announcement or, depending on price movement post announcement, whether there is an opportunity to take advantage of earnings announcement "afterglow." Preliminarily, the MU March 29th 20 delta 55/69 is paying 1.89/contract (off hours) with break evens at 53.11/70.89. The defined risk iron condor would require slightly more aggressive strikes to get one-third the width out of the longs -- the 53.5/56.5/67.5/69.5 (30 delta) in the March 29th pays 1.03 with break evens at 55.47 and 68.53. For short put/acquire/cover cycle traders who are looking to potentially get into MU lower than current market prices, the April 20th 25 delta 55 short put is paying 1.88 at the mid, yielding a break even of 53.14, a 12.28% discount over where the underlying is currently trading. Alternatively, you can look at going out to May here where the 55 is at the 30 delta, bring in 2.87 at the door and get a break even of 52.13 (a nearly 14% discount). As far as non-earnings is concerned, we're kind of in "the dead zone" between the April and May monthlies; for me, the April month is too short in duration (33 days to go) and the May, a bit too long (61 days). Nevertheless, here are the top four exchange-traded funds ranked by implied volatility -- OIH (29), EWZ (29), XOP (29), GDXJ (28) -- and by implied volatility rank/percentile: XHB, FXI, XLF, and XLB, all of which are at the upper end of their 52-week ranges. Unfortunately, that isn't saying much, since background implied in all of these is sub-25, with the preferred metric for background implied being >35%. It may be time to scrounge around for something directional to keep me engaged in "the dead zone" -- for example, this GE play (See Post below) ... .
NASDAQ:MU
by NaughtyPines
THE WEEK AHEAD: ADBE, OIH, XOP, GDXJ, EWZ, VIXWith the VIX dropping hard below 15, some of the juice has poured out of the cup ... . Even so, there remain a few plays in the market. ADBE announces earnings on the 15th (Thursday) after market close. The volatility metrics don't quite meet my criteria for a volatility contraction play (56/32), but the March 23rd 210/323.5 short strangle is paying 3.80 at the mid with that setup's defined risk counterpart, the 205/210/232.5/237.5 iron condor, paying 1.69, just a smidge over one-third the width of the wings. These are off hours quotes, so neither of these may look as attractive during regular market hours when things tighten up. Nevertheless, worth keeping an eyeball on. The remainder of earnings announcements on tap for next week either involve poor liquidity underlyings or have implied volatility in the lower half of their 52-week range, making them singularly unattractive for the standard play. In the exchange-traded fund neck of the woods, OIH and XOP retain fairly decent background implied volatility at 31, as does the junior gold miners fund, GDXJ. My preference is to pull the trigger on these underlyings directionally. With GDXJ, I would like slightly lower (sub-30 would be great). A touch of caution is warranted, however, since there is a bit of divergence between gold spot prices and both GDX and GDXJ, implying that if gold goes lower here (it's got room), the miners will weaken even further, so trade these small in the event that support terms out to be meaningless (i.e., you're dead ass wrong as to direction). As far as "the Brazilian" (EWZ) is concerned, the April 20th 43/49 (40 days until expiry) short strangle is paying 1.25 at the mid; it isn't hugely compelling, but it's a sub-$50 underlying after all. If you're going to pull the trigger on that setup, however, I'd do it soon, since we're quickly getting outside the 45-day sweet spot. VIX futures term structure has finally returned to a modest degree of normalcy, with contracts in contango front to back. I'm still waiting for a few UVXY short call verts to pull off here that I put on in the hot and heavy of early Feb, so am going to hand sit until I'm able to quit sweating over those. The forecast, however, is for contango erosion/beta slippage to resume (it already has) in UVXY and VXX, implying that they will continue to pretty much go down from here over time (naturally, in the absence of another pop).
NASDAQ:ADBE
by NaughtyPines