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Jnug to Gold "French Election weekend"So I am having a hard time reading the Jnug chart right now. Aside from the extremely oversold RSI, the positive action today for Jnug, despite weakness in gold, suggests a pop may have begun today. But I thought maybe the regular gold chart might help me get a couple of ideas about Jnug price action in the short term. I am assuming that we are going to get a bounce from the French elections this weekend. So I threw up a Fib measurement to get an idea. With Macron most likely winning the election the bounce should be small. I am targeting the 50% Fib retracement into the 1250's range. There is also a ton of resistance and moving averages in this area. The only thing that I think could get gold to break through at this point would be a La Pen victory. If she were to win, then I would think that gold would retest the long term downtrend line that we have not been able to break, somewhere in the 1280's. But I think the 1250's is more reasonable. That being said, the Jnug bounce should also be somewhat short lived as well. I am at least thinking we can fill the next couple of gaps aside from the one we are at right now. So I am at least targeting the $22.15 spot which would also possibly coincide with the dropping 50 DMA. That would equal a 62% positive move for Jnug from the recent lows. To reach the upper edge of the channel seems to be too far away with a short term pop in gold. I just don't quite see it right now. But once gold itself starts to really drop into its ICL, Jnug will probably also drop hard right back down to the single digits. Since I am anticipating that gold will drop until the 2nd week of Jnue with a possible rate hike, I am saying that gold will drop to the bottom of that blue wedge at around the 1163 - 1170 range. We should get a much better bounce at that time but then after that, I predict the real bad bloodbath will begin until the winter of next year. I think Ill put up the GDXJ and Jnug charts next to assist.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by SalN
8
Jnug to Gold "Possible more downside ahead"With the break of the black trend line yesterday, that suggest that there is much more downside ahead for Jnug. I did not think this drop was coming so soon. I was thinking in a month or two. So I was wrong. But now it appears that we are in a downward channel. And I have a feeling we are going to fill at least the next gap if not the December low gap. The 50 DMA crossed the 100 DMA a week earlier than I was predicting which led to a big sell off. Especially once that trend line was broken. Once the trend line was broken, all the stops that were set just below it were triggered and that led to a very big sell off. The next set of stops may be around the $4.20 mark. But we could get a small bounce to retest that trend line that we broke yesterday. Not to mention, gold is starting it trek down to its ICL. That will bring this down more IMO. We should get a little bounce soon but nothing too big. Sell off are called bloodbaths for a reason. IT can be a brutal market and just when you think you are on top of everything, it throws you a curve ball a little early. That is why you must have stops in place. I am out of Jnug for now until I see it reach a strong support area.
AMEX:JNUGShort
by SalN
38
Jnug to Gold "looks like its time to go long for a bit"I was too focused and zoomed in on my little wedge to see the bigger picture. I think what just happened is a larger zig zag B wave just played out. I measured the drop from the 1st part of the B wave and as you can see(purple price measurement), this latest drop is just about a perfect measurement. I think we are done now. I am expecting Jnug to start the C wave up. I am expecting Jnug to be back at $7 by Friday. We are also stretched far from the 10 and 20 DMA which never lasts very long. We are clearly in the large wedge as of today. But I did not think it would happen this way. I just did not see it. Oh well, I did not sell my Jnug today because I know it will go back up very soon. I will still make a good profit. As you can also see, I measured the A wave up (green price measurement) and we should reach the top of the blue wedge line in a couple weeks. There is also a big bullish divergence on the RSI 5 so I am holding.
AMEX:JNUGLong
by SalN
26
Jnug to Gold "Difficult Read ahead"I have had a difficult time figuring out what to discuss. NOTE** None of what I say below will matter if there is a war with North Korea in the next week because gold will shoot through the roof. But I have a feeling that Trump worked out a deal with China and dough boy will back down. That being said, I do believe that the cycle for Jnug has shifted....but trying to guess when it bottoms and starts new is a guess. So I will go for it. With the huge gap down yesterday and the strong close below both the 10 and 20 DMA, I would suspect that more down side is ahead for Monday and Tuesday. attention has to be given to the gap we just made. But if we continue down, AND touch the trend line, I would probably call that the cycle end for Jnug. I have already shifted the cycle indicators at the bottom to reflect this theory and moved the pink vertical line over as well. As you can see, I left the shaded green area in its original place as a reference of the old cycle end area. As you can also see, I do not expect a big pop in Jnug. The BBands are closing tighter and tighter and I think it will continue for a little while longer. So I expect more chop for a couple more weeks. Part of the reason I am leaning this way is that, .....I really do not think spot gold is going to break out of that long term downtrend line. (I will post the gold chart later). Not to mention, gold is starting to get to that point in time when it too should start cycling down. Not just for a daily cycle low but also for an Intermediate cycle low. An estimation for spot gold to bottom on its ICL is late May to Early June. Which means that it usually starts to turn down approximately 1 month ahead of that date. So I think that spot gold will reach the top of the downtrend line next week and then move down to sideways, just underneath it (which everyone will call a bull flag). Is it a bull flag? Well it will look like one but no one will be paying attention to the cycles. Not all bull flags play out. SO I am estimating that we start to drop with gold around the May 8th date. That is also about the time that the 50 DMA should be crossing down across the 100 DMA for Jnug. (which is also a very narrow point in the wedge). If spot gold does start to tank for its ICL, then it should drag Jnug down with it. That is the reason I have the arrows on the Jnug chart moving down in May. And of course, lets not forget the short, medium and longer term hidden bearish divergences on the RSI 5. I think that should be respected, a lot. The short term bullish divergence played out last week and there could be another medium one that forms if Jnug falls further and stops at the trend line. I extended the bullish divergence line to give you an idea. Ill post my gold chart next.
AMEX:JNUG
by SalN
48
Jnug to gold 4/07, still going according to planI was happy to see that wave 5 completed today. I was also unhappy that it did not complete yesterday like I was hoping. (I cant predict everything perfectly but only hope to get real close). What we saw this morning was the gap up for Jnug, a little more upside movement to complete wave 5, and then the start of our move down. The huge down move to 6.43 was wave 1 down, the pull back until close is wave 2. Wave 2 may continue a little while on Monday. Then wave 3 should occur on Monday and we should complete the 5 waves down by Tuesday. If by Tuesday, we are not quite down to the bottom of the wedge (approx. $6.10 - 6.08) then we might briefly drop on early Wednesday morning only to reverse hard and shoot up. So I bought JDST today when Jnug was at the 7.26 range. I will sell my jdst when jnug drops to the low $6 range and immediately buy Jnug again for the new cycle pop. I bet very few people had the balls to buy JDST or Dust after what happened last night and the gap up this morning. I saw everyone super bullish and calling for at least $8 for Jnug. I wonder what they are thinking right now after dropping so hard. Oh wait, I know what they are thinking......MANIPULATION!!! Ha Not. I followed my cycle analysis and wave count and it worked like it was supposed to. (YES supposed to). Hard to accept for many. It almost seems as if all the news and other BS is irrelevant unless it supports/helps the pattern complete itself. That being said, I know that I will not always figure out the correct pattern or wave count. But I am on a 3 month roll. Just a heads up *** Another thing to note that I have NOT figured out yet. The cycles shift from time to time. If you were to look at my cycles on the bottom part of my chart, and go back to middle of summer 2016, you will see that the current cycles do not work. I have not figured out what caused the shift and hopefully I see it when it happens next time. If I miss it then that could be a painful period of time. By the way, I have an alternative red arrow drawn for the cycle drop in the middle of May. The reason I put that there is that during that point in time (end of cycle drop), spot gold should also be in its cycle drop. Like in February, when/if these two things correlate, the moves are very big. GL
AMEX:JNUGShort
by SalN
39