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GDXJ

Pierce top BB - $40+I will not sell JNUG positions until top BB is pierced on GDXJ. The top BB is increasing in slop and bottom BB is curling up as well. There is some resistance overhead with MAs, but can easily be broken and then no resistance beside previous consolidation levels and tops. Invalidate with consecutive daily closes below SMA 9. TP is pierce of top BB, currently at 39.94 and increasing daily, so 40+ is target. Today's gap up cleared previous congestion area which is a historic Support/Resistance are on multiple occasions. The next such area is 40-43. Once the top BB is pierced, some profit should be taken and reloaded on a piercing of the lower BB.
AMEX:GDXJLong
by TradeUpCards
Gold Hidden Bearish Divergence RSIGold Daily Chart I apologize for all the lines for my gold chart. I usually don't like to post this chart because of the mess but felt it important. Take a look at the RSI below set at the default 14 for the daily. This is another reason why I believe that this is a fake out and that we still could fall until late Feb to March. What you are seeing is called a hidden bearish divergence. RSI is making higher highs as spot gold is making lower highs. Look it up (bearish divergence) for yourselves. Timing this is another story all together. Yes we could make a pop up which can really turn your stomach. And yes this does not have to play out. But divergences are important to consider. And the fact that miners is now past the half way mark for its cycle means that a correction move will begin soon. I held over the last few days placing my bet that this tanks soon. However, if this is a wave 4 then it could get sloppy before the fall. The other thing that I take into consideration is the YEN. The YEN is also in a wave four correction and started that correction on December 15th / 16th the day gold took off. The Yen is IMO more closely correlated to gold than the dollar. At least it has been lately. And I am also wondering if gold might tank after the inauguration. Just like it tanked after Trump won the election. I think this week and beginning of next will show us the way. If I am correct and gold does tank, I believe that this will be the last time we go down. It should be very very bullish for the next 5 years or so after that.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by SalN
THE WEEK AHEAD: SLIM PICKINGS FOR THE PREMIUM SELLERWith VIX at sub-12 levels, broad market implied volatility is low here, and a basic screen run for high implied volatility rank/high implied volatility yields few high quality results. Here's what I'm looking at ... . SPY et al (Broad Market) The first expiry with greater than 15% implied volatility for SPY is in the June expiry. The most I like to go out with these is around 90 DTE, so no play there unless you like to watch paint dry. (The theta decay of a June setup would be painful to watch). Earnings The only earnings play next week with >70 implied vol rank/>50 implied vol is $NFLX, which announces on 1/18 after market close. I'll probably play that with my standard volatility contraction setup, which will either be an iron condor or short strangle, although I could also see just playing it with a 20-delta short put (bullish assumption). Non-Earnings The only playable individual underlying without earnings on the horizon appears to be P, but the only worthwhile setup due to the price of the underlying would be an ATM short straddle, 45 DTE. It looks like that would pay 2.00 or so at the door; shooting for 25% max profit would yield about $50 per contract. Exchange Traded Funds There are literally no sector exchange traded funds out there that meet my criteria for a premium selling play (>70% implied vol rank; >35% implied volatility), unless you count $GDXJ (junior gold miners) and $UNG (the natty gas proxy). With $GDXJ, I'm contemplating the simplest play out there -- a naked short put (bullish assumption). Unfortunately, however, I missed the "meat of the dip," so am hesitant to pull the trigger here against a backdrop of Fed tightening and therefore Greenback strength going forward. I'll post the $NFLX, $P, and $GDXJ plays if I decide to play ... . VIX/VIX Derivatives I continue to keep an eye on VIX "front month" futures. The Feb expiry is currently trading at 14.20-ish; the March, at 15.70. The Feb is a bit low for my tastes on which to base a VIX term structure trade; I already have a March setup on; and VIX is too low for a "Contango Drift" trade in one of the derivatives. My original intention with UVXY was just to slap on an ATM short call vert post split, but the options chains have been somewhat slow to populate for the standard contracts. You will see the chain with both 20's (the nonstandard contract for options that were on when the split occurred) and 100s (the standard contract). Some care needs to be taken not to accidentally enter a trade in a non-standard or a combo of a standard and a non-standard ... .
TVC:VIX
by NaughtyPines
gdx miner cyclefor those who follow cycles, here is my chart of the gold miners cycle. this chart forecasts that as of 1/12/2017 we are due for a miners cycle low in the second part of january 2017. this cycle will give us hints as to the Trend of gold. The current Daily cycle looks right translated (the high is in the second half of the cycle) and has gone higher than previous cycle (see arrows). if the bottom of this upcoming gdx cycle closes Above the previous daily cycle low (see line labeled "Critical level" - we must find a cycle bottom Above that line), it will make a strong signal that the daily cycle Downtrend is Over and we are starting a new Daily cycle uptrend UP. In plain language as long as we dont make a lower cycle low, it is a strong signal that gold is now in a long term uptrend! so it looks like there maybe a good Short trade here for a few Days, and then once we bottom, a good Long trade if we dont break the low. same cycle applies to GDXJ
AMEX:GDX
by Proph1t
Jnug to Gold Important InfoGold Daily Chart This is important enough to get its own post. Earlier post still applies as you will see. I was reviewing some of the materials that others have written about cycles and gold and I think I found something that could prove to be very important. Since I cant post the chart I want to reference, I would like you to google search for it on your own so you can see this persons research before continuing reading this post. So in your google search type in silverdoctors Gary Christenson and look for his June 6th article titled Major Gold Cycle Lows. Then scroll down past the Gold monthly log scale and focus on the Gold weekly cycle log chart he has created. Read the description. ........ As you can see, his analysis looks pretty darn good and that the yearly cycle is more like 14.5 months rather than 12 months. THAT BEING SAID. Gold bottomed in December 2015 on the 17th. And now you are hearing everyone say that gold has bottomed this year on DECEMBER 15th. HMMMMM. 363 days! Nope, too damn close. In my OPINION, its a trick. They are fooling us and this could very well be a great bull trap this last week and a half. You see, 14.5 months comes out to middle February to early March. And if you look at my chart, you can see that the short term and intermediate term cycles are due to bottom at that time as well. So I really feel that in the next week or two, we will see if my theory is correct, that we are only in a corrective wave 4, with a 5th wave down about to commence possibly in two to three weeks. Down to that red arrow and yellow oval. Yep, I'm looking to buy physical gold and silver, and JNUG!! when gold gets to 986 to 977 range. And that fuchia colored line just bellow the yellow oval in the bottom of the bear channel, the same one we bounced off of in December 2015. Then we really start the bull run and live happily ever after. Just for fun, I'd like to know what you guys think about this little bit of info.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by SalN
1
TRADE IDEA/EXAMPLE: A 20/10 DELTA "DYNAMIC" IRON CONDORA creature of habit, I always sell the 20 delta when selling naked puts or setting up strangles/iron condors. Some traders like selling the 16's; some, the 30's; so I'm kind of "in between" ... . Here, I show an example of a setup where I'm selling the 20 delta call (at whatever strike it lies), the 20 delta put (at whatever strike it lies), and buying the 10 delta put and call (at whatever strikes they lie). As compared to a "static" setup where you are making each wing the exact same width, here I'm letting the options' respective delta values dictate where my strikes, resulting in a skewed setup with the short call vert side of the setup being wider (4 strikes) than the short put side (3 strikes). In actuality, this is a fairly good high IVR/IV setup, although I generally like to get at least 1/3rd the width of the wings in credit: POP% 63% Max Profit: $93/contract Max Loss: $307/contract BE's: 30.07/42.93 Notes: The "naked," undefined risk alternative is the body of this setup -- the Feb 31/42 short strangle with a max profit potential of $168/contract.
AMEX:GDXJ
by NaughtyPines
Jnug to Gold Great run BUT!!Spot God Daily Chart What a run! So I am currently having a dilemma. How much higher do we go? I am pretty sure that tomorrow is a miss on the jobs report. I am estimating 155,00 - 160,000. I came up with that estimate after using and reading a report written today on seeking alpha. That report has two bar charts. You can see where I came up with that number range. Currently we are bull flagging. It can be seen better on the 4 hour chart. I think with the jobs report miss tomorrow, we should push through 1186 and at least reach the 38% Fib of 1193. There is the problem for me. Do we continue or reverse course. I think we reverse course for Wave 5 down. If you zoom out or look at my last post you will see that I think we are in a wave 4 downtrend and should only retrace 38% or slightly more as wave 2 retraced over 50% or 62% depending on where you start wave 1. So hopefully tomorrow we might get a better understanding on where we are going to go. But I am expecting miners to reverse after am early morning push higher, just like last Friday. That is just my opinion. I will post my miners chart next.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by SalN
3
Jnug to Gold January 2nd 2017Gold Daily Chart first I decided to start off with the Spot gold chart first this time. I do not believe that gold is finished going down yet. Im talking about maybe one more day down. The reason I am thinking this is that we are, in my opinion, in a wave 4 correction.. If the wave 2 correction retrace approx. 61% then this correction should be around 38%. So I left the Fib retracement up to show you what I mean. I also left up the purple channel to show where we are. If spot gold breaks out of that channel then that might change things. But as of right now, we are still in a bear channel. So I am thinking that the most likely scenario is that we make it up to 1186 on a micro 3 wave move. If that is the case and A=C, then that would probably have gold bouncing off the 20 DMA or 10DMA before proceeding up again. After that, a little chop as the arrows show and then it looks to me that we begin wave 5 down. However, miners on the other hand appear to be finished with all 5 waves. maybe I am looking at it wrong but I will post gdxj to show you what I mean in a second. miners bounced off the top of the channel and is now moving down with gold. but if in fact gold needs to move up more like I described above then miners will break out of the downward channel during this cycle. I will post miners charts next
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by SalN
Jnug to GoldDaily Chart I think that we possibly bottomed (for the short term) for Jnug on the 20th. That would be a little over 30 days to end another left translated cycle. I think we could possibly get close to retesting the $3.80 level before starting a little two week pop. Evan though this does not look like a big move on the chart, It is actually quite a bit. IF we were to move from $3.80 to $6 then obviously that's a significant percentage. However, the first big resistance is at approximately the $5.27ish range. As you can see, we gapped down through that level. So once we get there, I think it would be a good idea to look at buying volume to see if it is subsiding at that point, just like selling volume has been subsiding. I am going to wait to see how this moves on Friday and possibly buy in on Friday or the beginning of next week.
AMEX:JNUGLong
by SalN
1