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GDXJ

Ratio:Miners index, priced in small capsNotice how Gold is moving inversely from HUI -priced in small cap miners ETF- since Jan 2013. My view is it pays at the time being to be in well financed, little debt small company stocks. Ratio currently at the lower boundary of possible megaphone pattern, right below of the non confirmed yet H&S's neckline. All eyes in yellow box, wick tail of June 16th area, for a possible break, or failed break. Big money are being made on big failed patterns. So far, ratio follows the path of a possible bullish Butterfly. Kumo (not shown) just turn red for the first time since Dec 2010 All the best P
NYSE:HUI
by pantheo
Silver: Anything can happenThe title by itself is indicative of any possible trade, but it's more of an opinion than a trade opportunity, as probabilities here on an R/R basis, are not the best, which should be our only criteria. As you can see in the attachments I was very positive and enter full long precious metal (jacked?) positions, on spot, futures,stocks and bullion more than two months ago. The reasoning behind is fully explained there, I believe. So, what's changed then since this? stocktwits.com Lots of technicals, overextended, negative reverse divergence, supply zone, trendlines and I'm sure that you are far better than me finding many others as well. The attitude of big traders as you can see in latest COT's its not the typical early stage uptrend we have seen in the past, rather I would say the big bar of June 19th looks like the product of short covering. Also this kind of positioning has signalled a pause in the past and not a continuation. Very quickly to extremes. nowandfutures.com The are still large amounts of positions in put options at $18 and $16 at CME. Of course this is the fuel that will push the price to increase if their stop losses getting hit. www.cmegroup.com Daily current pattern looks like what Bulkowski calls a "Flag tilt", while on the weekly price is at kumo resistance. thepatternsite.com Couple of newsletters I read in their free weekly/monthly edition calls for the mega bull, not always a good factor to include in your trades. More often than not, it pays to do exactly the opposite, it depends on the writer Sentiment readings regarding public opinion in silver hit the 65 mark, an area associated with tops in the past and not early uptrends. Last but not least we have the seasonality factor, like last year in a box to the left of the chart. All this together at the same time with everyone I know waiting for a lower high to be established, in order to long the sector. Anything can happen. I passed thankfully the stage of the "what if" trades and I can happily live with trades that I didn't enter if they don't fit my risk management or R/R criteria. Markets will be there for ever doing their thing. I want to feel the same for my accounts. All the best guys P.
FX:XAGUSD
by pantheo
3
Silver/Gold ratio popping out of downtrending channelI follow this closer than normal the last two months, as we are approaching one of good periods according to seasonal historical data, that usually price starts bottoming around June/July and rally late July to end of September. www.seasonal-charts.com This is the same chart posted a couple times before, but the rounded bottom I was hoping for starts to building. We will know if its an Adam&Eve double bottom after the ratio will break 0.17-0.18. Momentum is diverging, forming a possible IH&S, and as the title says, its popping out of the downtrending channel from the highs. Last week's sentiment and public opinion readings were at the low level but not reached extreme pessimistic areas. Still not out of the woods, as the say, but all these elements together with the close to record amount of shorts in silver in last COT's, says that bigger positions towards silver probably will perform better than Gold's. Personally my exposure is 60/40 in major vehicles and 70/30 in the leveraged one's or silver junior stocks to majors. Last two-three weeks were extremely profitable in the sector. After long, long time in the pain. All the best guys Panos
AMEX:SLV
by pantheo
2
Gold Stocks Outperforming Gold -- Royalty Stocks Leading the WayThis chart shows the year to date performance of gold vs gold stocks. We see that gold stocks of all kinds have outperformed gold itself. GDX is an ETF of larger, more established miners; GDXJ is an ETF is an ETF of junior miners. RGLD, SAND, and FNV are royalty stocks, which are basically firms that invest in other mines in exchange for a share of their output. Personally, I think these trends may continue -- though I still favor the accumulation of gold in the long run, as I think it is a safer, less speculative investment. More importantly, though, I think the outperformance year to date further supports the notion that the entire gold market has bottomed, and bulls are gearing up for the next leg up. For more on investing in mining stocks, see free video course on InformedTrades: www.informedtrades.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by cfdtrading_news
NUGT trade or how not to destroy your accountThe piercing line candle in the Juniors/Large miners got confirmation and the NUGT trade opened. Needs a lot of work, as PM complex is in a downtrend, but the chart present a possible ABCD, a C&H pattern, a falling bullish wedge that is about to break and everybody I know or I read is bearish or short gold and miner stocks. A lot, and I mean a lot of junior miner stocks presents H&S tops too, but since we are at the or near the bottom, might not be the best pattern to follow as it has poor results. On the other hand, shorts are creating the bottoms in a harry to bye back their positions when such patterns fail. Last COT's looks ok, sentiment data are ok too- not at the pessimistic extremes I would like to - Rydex assets holders have the smallest investment in PM's as usual, GOFO's are still negative, public opinion of Gold is around the middle level (50) and seasonals show late April until mid June is good period. www.signalfinancialgroup.com All these ok, but the R/R is what made me push the button. 1 R loss gives a good sleep. cheers and all the best Panos p.s. I have destroyed a couple of accounts with 3X leveraged products during the early - before R/R and trading journal- years. Take care.
AMEX:NUGTLong
by pantheo
GDXJ/GDX Ratio put a piercing line candleJuniors/Large producers ratio put a piercing line candle yesterday in the daily (not shown), right at the last weekly support/demand zone. If confirmed, might be a good signal that Gold has a chance to go higher like the last time it happened and fight the outside weekly reversal which is an ominous sign on its own. A close above 1,52 in the ratio will be good for the IH&S structure that exists both in miners and gold, hinting that 1,59-1,62 area is achievable. Bear in mind, that both are still in a downtrend and last week's sentiment data does not yet reached pessimistic levels, while public opinion in Gold is at medium to low level and not yet in extreme negative zone. GOFO rates are negative for the last few weeks, always a good sign for PM complex longs.
AMEX:GDXJ
by pantheo