In this video, I explain what to expect in the months ahead, following the Fed's pivot back to monetary easing. Also, I wanted to make several notes: When I said that it's almost never better to own derivatives than holding an asset outright, I do realize the importance that derivatives can play with leverage and risk management. When I said that fear is...
There is a lot of fear and uncertainty about bank runs right now, but fortunately, TradingView's charts give us objective and unbiased insight into the actual state of U.S. bank liquidity. In this video, I explain some key charts that you can use to analyze banking liquidity. You can add these charts to your Watchlist so you're always able to get a pulse on the...
The long interest rate play may have been one of the most productive plays of, oh, the last five years or so (maybe more) with shorts in (pick your poison) SHY (1-3 year maturity paper), IEF (7-10), TLT (20+), EMB (emerging market), HYG (junk) being the rage, particularly with the Fed giving the market a fairly good idea of the when. Unfortunately, the point at...
Bull flags are found in charts with strong uptrends and are considered continuation patterns. They form when price barely subsides as the oscillators revert downward, such that when the oscillators are ready to move up again, rapid increases in price recur. Below are some bull flags with bearish implications that suggest perhaps more economic pain is to come in...
... for a $215 debit. Comments: I opened these for a $25/contract debit wayyy back in February of 2021 (See Post Below) when /GE was trading above 99.75, betting that -- at some point -- Eurodollar futures would return to their prepandemic levels and gave the play oodles of time to work out. Closed them on Friday for $210/contract with 268 days to go, with /GE...
... (long put vertical) for a .25/contract debit. Notes: Here a bearish assumption bet that 3 month Libor returns to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2022 (i.e., below 98.50). Risking .25 ($25) to make 6.00 ($600). Obviously, an extremely long duration trade, but with a 24:1 reward:risk ratio.
This is post 10 on the Eurodollar and the effect on the market. This is a monumental event. The eurodollar is the largest and most important market that one can understand to begin to make conclusions on all other markets. When it moves sideways then it is basically a "new normal" and things can move as we think they should when it comes to inflation, interest...
3M Eurodollar futures haven't bought into the recent sell off in bonds...yet.
Diagonal breakout in T-Bond futures this week on top of a eurodollar that is showing no sign of slowing down - certainly evidence for the continued bull case in bonds
If the top in Bonds is in - then why is the eurodollar above its March high? Could be indicative of an additional leg to this bond market rally
Eurodollar entering last break down supply zone $GE_F, $DXY, $TLT, $IRX, $TNX
FWIW Fed funds rate imposed $GE_F, $FED
$DJIA, and Fed Funds rate imposed