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Geopolitics

KSS - Rounding bottom in making(chart updates) & Business updatePlease see my preview call on KSS link below ASX:KSS cdn-api.markitdigital.com As per Management: Demand for KSSmaritime data sets is driven by high financial, societal and environmental costs of illegal activitySlide 11For personal use only Targeting a Geospatial Solutions Market of $549 Billion by tackling Global Economic, Societal and Security Challenges.Deployed by Coast Guards, Navies & Maritime Security operators to identify, monitor coastlines and ultimately to intercept illicit traffic. Leveraged by insurers, regulators and governments to prosecute ships owners for carrying out illegal activities e.g. illicitly fishing, oil spills, piracy. selling actionable data vital to: •Defense and Security Market •Maritime Intelligence Market •Insurance Market •Regulatory Market Environmental Protection
KLong
by Peaceful-Weekend-Investing
EUR/USD Weekly Daily Chart Analysis For January 11, 2021Technical Analysis and Outlook The Euro retracement price action is in a corrective mode and well placed following completion of the Inner Currency Rally $1.2349 , and marginally Outer Currency Rally $1.2370 . Formation of Mean Res $1.2210 and Key Res $1.1173 are confirmed by Trade Selector System proprietary 'TARC' symbol - Trade accordingly/appropriate to your risk strategy. To continue the rest of the market story, see the 'Weekly Market Review & Analysis For January 11, 2021" at the usual site.
by TradingSig
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Weekly Daily Chart Analysis For Dec 21, 2020 Technical Analysis and Outlook With the completed Outer Coin Rally $24,230 , on Dec 20th, the coin traded at stagnation period for four days allowing us to lock and load for the next move to Inner Coin Rally $26,420 . The major Key Sup $22,600 is currently representing a slight possibility of a drop before launching the next robust up movement. - See 'Weekly Market Review & Analysis For December 21, 2020, page to continue the rest story.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TradingSig
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Weekly Daily Chart Analysis For Dec 7, 2020Technical Analysis and Outlook The Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar pair is currently trading inside a completed Outer Coin Dip marked at $17,715 . The buyers are destined to defend the Key Support $17,170 level aggressively - Prevalent Buy Zone. Once the price action rebounds off this support/buy zone, it will designate a solid upcoming two-step rally. See 'Weekly Market Review & Analysis For December 7, 2020, page to continue the rest story.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TradingSig
Gold / US Dollar, Weekly Daily Chart Analysis November 16, 2020Technical Analysis and Outlook Gold is experiencing a period of consolidation as the sentiment traders' and investors' stance is low - encouraging additional hedging. The upcoming week’s trading could very well mark the beginning of an epic squeeze on commercials and bullion banks' trading desks. In this scenario, Gold shows some very high chances to drop one more time: To Key Sup $1,798 and fulfilling Outer Gold Dip marked at $1,758 before a major take-off - the expectation of this to happen is very high. To continue the rest of the market story, see the 'Weekly Market Review & Analysis For November 16, 2020" at the usual site.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingSig
DJI (8H) - still a bear marketI show why the DJI (Wall Street) is still a bear market - at this time (only). Expand the chart for a better view. There is what looks like a parallel channel heading south and two sharp ATR switches. Price moves around in the channel, breaks out and back in. Note also that what looks like a channel now, could change into some other formation. The market does as it likes. This formation is not predictive. It can give an idea of what to expect, from wherever you find price on your chosen time frame. Very unusual things can happen with channels. Some may have seen a recent fallout on the 2H time frame (which doesn't mean the same thing will happen on this time frame. ) Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker
Topping up #AR9. Seems to be finding a base here.Topping up here TA, - Trend line support - 20EMA daily - Ascending triangle - RSI relatively oversold - Short term resistance at 0.6 show by high volume. Good place to take some profits if you intend to. Concerns, - Recent earnings and 50% loss in operating revenue. However, the earnings reaction was neutral which shows strong hands holding this. - If negative momentum continues, could see 0.35 in the short term. Should bounce there(first touch rejection 90% of the time) FA, Fundamentally, I am betting on the the team and the trust they've developed over the last 1.5 decades It's quite obvious that the next decade will be dominated by data,cloud and IoT. Cyber security is the back bone for this next paradigm and it is highly unlikely governments will outsource data security to a non-Australian company. AR9 has built this trust over the last 1.5 decades. Trust is hard to replicate on balance sheets.
ASX:AR9Long
by ashainp
1
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical Analysis for JuneWeekend Macroeconomic Report The week was a bullish one. Looking at the weekly time-frame, we've surpassed the 61.8% fib from the march swing-high to the march swing-low. It also gets us about 10% off of the record highs, however the progress was mostly catalyzed by the vaccine news at the early of the week. The rally at the end of this Friday's close was systemic. It was the news that the U.S. president (after the markets were already in anticipation as he had tweeted there would be significant news). The press conference was not positive. The things that came out of it was both anticipated and expected, which is what the markets are operating on right now. They anticipated that the U.S. would begin to win back exceptions from Hong Kong as a semi-autonomous trading partner because of Chinas move to consolidate power under grounds of national security. There was also mention of delisting Chinese companies on the American stock exchanges, which would be huge for companies such as $BIDU. Even the Hong Kong dollar after the news--not far--but remarkable . It's surprising and something I’ve never seen in my life. The most troubling aspect was the anticipation of how bad the second quarter GDP number will be for not just the world but the world. The feds estimate for Q2 is -35% , however not even close to the Atlanta Fed which they expect a -51.2% contracting (annualized). This is extraordinary activity for financial activity, and goes without saying is a lateral move. Is it appropriate to expect that the markets can really price in a -51% decrease in GDP? Even with the guides of central banks, the low assumptions of risk and low recharging of growth fails to reinforce the longevity of investment in the long run. The cost of the SPY for example (a cash ETF, proxy of the SP500) is at a record high with expectations of return extremely low according to C.O.T. (traders sentiment) and hedge fund position. As long as central banks prioritize the headlines, I will be following what the markets are projecting regardless of how irrational the price action. FOMO and momentum can be used to drive sentiment as we se it, and could be a good explanation. Another theme keeping things buoyant will be vaccine headlines over the weekend and also the possibility of the second wave here in the U.S. I suspect if this came to happen in a few weeks. The key themes going into next week will be stimulus. The update from the federal reserve this week they showed they are purchasing high quality corporate ETF's (a new asset class for them) and amongst the ETF's being purchased was LQD. As you can see, it clearly benefited. For some that have been in the game for a while, front running the FED has never been our cup of tea, but the purchases of corporate bonds could be something that could be emulated successfully. The interest will be there, but I doubt that it's NOT already counted in. The other two key events coming up will be the Royal Bank of Australia Central Bank docket. AUD/USD and AUD/JPY will be of watch next week, and also AUD/CAD should have volatility. These are unusual crosses that will be worth paying attention to, because volatility will be high between these crosses. The other central bank is Canada. The USD/CAD could gain traction if the bank announces a surprise in monetary policy. Expectations are accommodation for forward guidance, however there are some pretty steep measures that could be used and this would surely play into our advantage. The USD will have the ser ices PMI next week which will be very important to keep in mind as, as it accounts for 3/4ths of the output of the largest economy in the U.S. This is the indicator that will shake things lose, with N.F.P. will have on Friday but I suspect it to have a lesser impact. Tay FX
FX:SPX500
by TayFx
11
GET READY: A big fortnight ahead!This is an educational post - compliant with the house rules on text-based contributions - showing some of the tension between monetary policy taken by the FED and real world fiscal issues at deeper levels. Click and drag chart if all text does not show. Thanks. The tension has caused whipsaws in the US Dollar, and price of Gold. The IMF has declared a global recession and several countries have gone into recession. Reputable opinion out there is that the world is heading for an economic depression based on a 50 to 75 year cycle, which is coinciding with a 10 year recessionary cycle. I have no doubt that central banks around the world will have limited success in propping up economies. I'm more concerned for the longer term view. Last week extreme volatility took a break compared to the previous week. The next 2 weeks could see a return of volatility to indices and forex markets. Stay safe, fellow traders.
FOREXCOM:US30Education
by Captain_Walker
3
The Secrets to Forex & Protecting Your CarryYou must read the prior articles first. If this was a video game you would probably be trying to skip the conversation boxes at this point. Don't try to speedrun this, you'll die at the boss. --------------------------------------- I'm sure you're tired of all the poetry and want to get straight to the money. Money, after all, is the best form of entertainment. Now, last time we left off with timeframes and carry conditions, key components of the overall risk management message I want to get across. I figured that most retail traders operate on multiday/multiweek positions. Most know next to nothing about carry risk or other unique risks present only for non-intraday traders. If you intend to hold positions across several weeks/months (see pt. 3 for the definition), then this section is the most important of all the articles to come. In addition, I recommend doing additional research, especially if you have a job, are in schooling, or other responsibilities; because understanding this risk (and potential reward) can be very beneficial for those with limited time to spend. Part 1: Country-level Assets All wealthy people own assets. Assets can appreciate. If you 'own' a lot, you are, by default, wealthy. At least, for a brief moment in time. When you trade in forex, you are investing in a type of asset underwritten by a 'country' and paired with a similar underlying. The country creates the supply, and sets minimum standards in demand via tax law. Like businesses with stocks, countries with currencies and bonds can default, and flatline, leading to a breadline utopia. Inversely, they can also grow, and produce something of market value; and then provide returns to everyone that bet something on them. Some countries are flailing about, some countries are stable, and some are growing with seemingly no obstacles in sight. Which one would you want to invest in? Remember the dividend question? Before some median-salary economist gets in a huff, yes it's not always as simple as 'growing country = growing interest rates.' But here's what's important for retail traders: Central banks manage these 'country-level' assets with an evolving toolbox to variable acclaim. I recommend doing your own research into that topic, because it's too far outside the scope of these articles, and there are no unified verdicts on the 'science' behind any of it. The important thing to understand is that when you invest in these country-level assets, some countries demand a fee rate, and some offer a dividend rate. THAT'S IT. Room temperature or higher IQs will get this. Part 2: Free to Play vs Fees to Play You can find these rates by googling: 'central bank interest rates.' Those negative rates are FEES TO PLAY. Zero or higher is FREE TO PLAY. If you hold currency at a broker, these rates are realized and charged or credited to your market position at the daily rollover event. This occurs at the end of the 24hr cycle set to City time. So if you hold positions over 24hr cycles, you will be charged or credited REAL MONEY (no delivery gimmicks). Now, you can't trade currency in isolation in forex, it's always in the form of a pair. In case you haven't figured this out yet, the forex trader is the type of player these articles are designed for. This means, in lazy phrasing, that you are betting on the demand for the money (investor appeal) of one country AGAINST another. If you want to invest in a country as is, you can opt for national or municipal bonds, but note they do have slightly different carry conditions. But to stay on target, what do you think happens when you match a higher rate with a lower rate? The USD is a higher rate than the JPY. The USD is free to play, the JPY charges a fee to play. When you open a position in the market, you are FUNDING one of those currencies (basically against the other). This means you are liable to the interest rate gap. Brokers have an unnecessarily complicated explanation for why they HAVE to pay you money (or take your money) even though price action may not technically move from 23:59 to 00:01. They want to balance the books in a way they are comfortable with, because they have lots of liabilities with major liquidity providers. The net takeaway is that most brokers will generally charge or credit based on the interest rate gap between the currencies in your selected pair. So carry conditions are relevant accross most brokers unless you have a based Islamic account. Note that most brokers have a separate fee (usually .25%), which means if the interest rates are equal then you still get charged at rollover. There are other subtractions brokers will make as well (never in your favor), sometimes cutting deep in the rate gap. Unsurprisingly, they want to pay you as little as possible; in some cases, you can be charged on rollover regardless of gap or position direction. This is why you need to check the 'specification' of the pair in your MT4 to see the swap (or use a calculator provided by your broker.) Some brokers have special rules for emerging currencies with high rates like 8%, other brokers may offer advantages for trading these depending on their business structure. Wed to Thurs rollover is a x3 event , basically to make up for the lack of a rollover event on Sat and Sun night. You're probably wondering why these 'small percents' matter. After all, you're in forex to make highly leveraged internet magic money, not some quarterly dividend payment like your boomer parents. Part 3: Make America Think Again But it's just pennies a day right, who cares? Carry conditions can cost or credit you pennies a day or thousands of dollars a day, depending on the size of your position or the pair in play. On some pairs, you can make 15~ USD a day with just 1 lot in the market. That's over 5k a year USD. That's the equivalent of 540 pips a year, WITH 1 LOT ON 1 PAIR. And all you have to do, is fund a high rate currency bet against a low rate currency on a popular broker. That's it. No technical moonworshipping required. No stalking some coin startups social media for pump and dump schemes. No staying up all night worrying about the West going to war with Iran because you longed the Euro before dinner. It's the opposite of the coin flip, its coin printing. Many retail traders are from developing and emerging countries, it can be an excellent opportunity for men and women of all ages. Its like working at Wall Street and sending the remittances back, all from the ease of your home; without any political, religious, cultural, or economic barriers to get in your way. Sure it's not really that convenient. But the analogy would've been really cool if it worked. So what can happen, for example. At .40 lots for a full position, you would net 1.80 USD a day. Assuming 2 weeks to fill a position at optimal entry points (we'll talk about this later), and a remaining 2.5 month duration (5 fortnites), you net about 130 from carry credit payments during that trade period (1/4 a year), and be able to close with a very profitable or at least at a net-positive price level. Keep in mind, the average yearly takehome is anywhere from 2k-10k in developing countries. 1.8 a day can represent significant supplimentary income, and you only need 100-250 (in USD equivalent value) to support margin at most brokers. You could reinvest those winnings over the course of the first year and start the next year earning 7-8 USD a day. Now some of you might have more cash to waste. With a career in a developed country, maybe you have 25-50k to responsibly throw around in your 20s, no family, STEM job, good rent contract, little student debt, etc. We can upgrade that position size to 4 to 8 lots. 18-37 USD per day. You'll be doubling (before tax) your initial capital every 4 years. Part 4: Fields of Pink But wait, what if you have the opposite position? You fund a low rate currency against a high rate currency, or your trash broker demands fees on both. Your inverted head and shoulders 4h pattern looks (and smells) great, and you're ready to long the EURUSD. You plan to hold this one for a month at least, until it hits some absolute number like 1.200 (because it's the fifth wave in some model a statistician invented 40 years ago), and therefore, must happen. You decided your 'RR' would be 3 to 1, a 150 pip stop loss and a 450 take profit. You're already taking a tendie loan out at KFC in anticipation of a big win down the line. Meanwhile, you're losing 13 dollars a day (or let's say 0.5-2 pips worth of loss), guaranteed. Because you're paying a fee to play, while taking a bet that fails at a near 50% rate (much higher for retail), while throwing away weeks/months of time in anticipation of a result/delivery (capital opportunity cost). Now, if you had ten thousand years of nutritionally deficient ancestors, I can't blame you for this decision-making. But most of us haven't. So here it is, another forex secret: Quite simply, there are pairs the vast majority of you shouldn't be trading, and that includes majors with poor carry conditions (losers both ways with rollover). Pairs like CHFJPY, or any pair that has you longing the JPY or CHF (and usually EUR). Betting against the USD is another insured risk, when looking at majors. It doesn't mean you should never fund a low rate against a high rate, but you need to think in terms of FEES. Is it worth paying a daily fee to make this trade? Now, for the greedy. You'll need to do your own research, to decide if hunting extremely high rates on emerging/exotic currencies is the best course for you and your margin, of if settling with minimal (but not negative) rates on crosses or other majors is good enough for your strategy. My guidance is to look into emerging currencies if you don't have much time to trade daily (someone with a full-time job or family) or you don't intend to sink 1,000s of hours into mastering the intra-day trade (nightmare mode). Part 5: Washington Consensus Trading with carry conditions in mind can even be advantageous compared to other asset classes (like stocks or corporate bonds). It's like trading a high yield junk bond, only you have far less risk from defaults. What's a safer institution? Some 5 month-old, toothbrush-sharing, 10 slide company with 8 employees, or the full might of a nationstate? Sure, a few nationstates have defaulted in modern history. The upside is you usually have lots of heads-up, because default tends to be political in nature. That is, if you're a nation in need of cash, you can always get a loan. It's simply a matter of if the terms are politically acceptable for your faction. This all factors into the 'heads-up' period, alerting you to pull out or reverse your position. The US tends to sanction them beforehand (conveniently) kicking you out of those markets ahead of total economic disaster. The complete opposite occurs with some shady junk bond at 15%, where the company disappears overnight. Companies fail for the smallest things, they fail all the time, and the world goes on. A country failing is always geopolitical in nature and market rules about fair play are thrown out the window. This is an intrinsic advantage to forex and global macro tradables in general. I'll talk more about the future risk of national defaults and the utility and primacy of forex as an asset class in the final article. So beyond the obvious consideration, which is to fund a high rate currency against a low rate; what pairs should you trade and how else could you mind carry conditions while holding a long term position? Should you stick to emerging (exotic) currencies against safe-haven currencies? IE, you only short the EURMXN or fund against the CHF? And what indicators/models (from article pt.2) should you use to achieve the safest average price entry? Part 6: Not All Edges are Sharpe Forex is highly volatile, so you may have an advantage in the carry conditions, but suffer a net loss from a poor initial position when you decide to close. A currency with a negative rate could move against you, bigly. Remember, the future holds unlimited risk. But the distinction here (as mentioned in the prior article), is the resilient value in understanding that contracts can have insured risk outcomes. Cost/benefits that are legally settled (from the past) at the point of opening position and at the rollover event, even if brokers tinker with the point payouts, the 'deal' is still there in some form. Here's a poorly kept institutional secret, greed often drives the price in the direction of the higher interest rate currency in a pair over multi-month periods, so this doesn't really matter. Wealthy investors are greedy for higher payouts from emerging countries: where labor is cheaper, new factories spring up all the time, and real estate can be opportune. Part 7: Bat Soup vs the Fortune 500 Old school risk theory in markets argues that high volatility = high risk, but in recent years it has evolved beyond such mathematical explanations, especially as consecutive market challenges broke paradigms. Boomers are slow learners, but they adapt quickly when they start losing money. The subprime crisis cost them big time. And it's true today for our sniffle pandemic. It's simple: On high timeframes across longer-term positions, macroeconomics and geopolitics reign supreme. This isn't just a forex rule. This has been true since the dawn of markets in human society, it is true today, and it will be true in the end. Regulation and interest rates are variables that follow those leaders (not precede). That is, their behavior is shaped by the first two; macro and geopolitics. Think about COVID-19. Look what a few bats and one strange wet market did this world. Macroeconomics and geopolitics produce basic patterns in the human brain that propagate through our societies as two different frequencies: the short wavelength called fear or the long wavelength called security (interpreted in complex ways by players in markets). These are filtered by timezones, languages, civilizational and organizational biases, technology, individual upbringings, and the incumbency of delusion and greed. Nanoseconds, or years later, this all gets represented as a market outcome on a chart. Amazing that people spend so much time analyzing the chaotic patterns of some shit on a floor instead of what was on the menu last night, when they try to understand what went wrong. So if you can understand markets during these strong periods of psychological stress, and during soft periods of algorithm auctioning and market making (call it ranging), then you can sail all the seas and survive all the storms. This is where concepts like seasonality, ATR, regressions, psychological origination, hedging, news trading, major moving averages, and others come into play. In the coming weeks, I'll start to break down the major components of those, and where the center of price gravity and extremes are for these higher timeframe, longer-term positions. So you can find the optimal entry opportunities for longer-term trades, while also taking advantage or hedging against carry conditions. It's time to start charting the course.
Education
by CountofCoins
XOP: Oil & Gas Fund Clings to SupportThe stock market's been undeniably strong, but energy has been the weakest link. Of the 11 major sectors, energy remains at or near the bottom of the rankings. (It's also the only one under its 200-day SMA) The S&P Oil & Gas Exploration ETF is a heavily traded name within the broader energy space. It averages almost 2x more options on a daily basis than the better known XLE: 122,000 contracts in the last month vs 76,000 for XLE , according to TradeStation data. XOP's MACD has been declining since early in the year and it's now trying to hold the $23 level where it peaked in early November. This sets up the potential for a break to the downside and a retest of the December lows around $20. The energy market has struggled with a supply glut. Just this week both the EIA and the IEA had bearish news. The EIA, part of the U.S. government, said domestic oil production passed 13 million barrels for the first time ever. Weekly data also showed big inventories of unused refined products. The IEA, a global organization, separately predicted non-OPEC supply will keep swelling. Throw in a potential of calmer tensions in the Middle East, and the risk/reward may favor weakness in this corner of the market.
AMEX:XOPShort
by TradeStation
ORBEX: US Air Strike Sends Oil and Gold UP!A US airstrike at the Bagdad airport killed Iranian General Qassem Soleimani’s. Not only this is going to increase geopolitical instability in the region but it also questions the legality of the President's decision as he acted without Congressional approval! US-Iran relations are taking a sour turn early in the year following an “extremely dangerous” attack that could set off a war. See how oil and gold have been affected so far and how they are likely to perform in the short-term. Timestamps WTI 3H 01:50 GOLD 3H 04:15 Trade safe Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by Orbex
NZDCAD Long-Term Buy FrameworkThis is a bullish setup framework for a lesser traded pair. Please read the 'guidance' below for full value. There tends to be a lot of volatility for this pair in Nov & Dec. Based on VaR analysis, there is a decent probability of a 250+ pip bullish move over that period. And, CAD macro data has been very strong for a bit too long, so any miss in upcoming data will see a surprise trend as commercials will try to cash in against speculators. Essentially, CAD has been 'wanting to weaken' since July, but data upside surprise keeps it on life support. But fair warning: do keep in mind that Options, Futures, and COT data all suggest NZD weakness and CAD strength, so I wouldn't expect any NZDCAD bullish moves to last into next year (without changes in that data at least). I attached rough estimates for levels that will be hit at some point in the next month or so. Generally, it is unwise to forecast technical setups for this kind of horizon. There are too many geopolitical and fundamental variables to interfere with at this kind of scale, but because both currencies are attached to commodities, global trade issues, and the Chinese economy to some degree, they are not as vulnerable as something like the USDJPY or XAUUSD, for instance, which have clear 'risk on vs risk off' parameters. Small lots with large SLs and low account risk can make these fun experiments from time to time.
Long
by CountofCoins
GOLD Medium-Term LongLast time we ran gold, it went pretty well. Got bored halfway through though. This time should be a bit more exciting. Metals complex is still bullish, seasonality looks good. MENA geopolitics is still hot and KJU is getting mad again cause Trump isn't giving him enough attention. (& whats Iran been up to lately?) Bad data and other warning signs from China econ (trade war hits them hard during the US Christmas consumer utopia, thus the deal demand for tariff reduction) and other emerging market problems (Argentina?). Even if phase 1 deal happens, its not gonna be that great. Economic warfare is here to stay. Gold should have an upside bias here, decent value (plus it's shiny and looks cool). First TP is almost a lock (like 70% hit). Lay off the TA you goobers and make some money for once.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by CountofCoins
NZDUSD Medium-Term SellChaos is cheap but plans are priceless. This is a wild month for fundamental and geopolitical events. No setups are safe this month, mine included. But that doesn't mean you opt-out of the market. As with my prior setups, exhaustion occurs during a surprise data miss or political event. You have to pay attention to real-time news if you want to win at this game in the long-run. Event Risk: Very High Sequence Risk: Low ATR: Good My published setups have made 100s of pips in the last few weeks, with an over 80% hit rate. I publish 3-4 charts a week and will continue doing so for the next 7 months at least. Follow me, and peer into the profitable and retail undervalued world of intra-day and intra-week trading. You can use my medium-term opportunities and fit them into your long-term trading setups/positions to get comfortable. (The PoC sinewave represents a safe return point for price action)
Short
by CountofCoins