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Geopolitics

US Stock Markets: And what's Mueller got to do with you?!This screencast is speculative - and I invite the full brain power of Tradingview's community to consider the variables which might affect the US Stock Markets around this time. Let's do this together. The stock market has retreated, probably due to nerves about the Mueller report - among several other things. If the report contains nothing on which Trump is impeachable then, I'm expecting a pump north. Mueller's hit list so far has been : 1. PAUL MANAFORT 2. RICK GATES 3. MICHAEL COHEN 4. MICHAEL FLYNN 5. GEORGE PAPADOPOULOS 6. ALEX VAN DER ZWAAN 7. RICHARD PINEDO (Names are in all caps only due to copy and pasting. Names and convictions are all in the public domain, so I'm not defaming anybody.) Some may think that with so much dirt around it's unlikely that Trump will come out of this clean. Hey, this bull market is about Trump - let's not debate that. If Trump goes down the markets go down like lead balloons. Alternatively, if Trump comes out clean enough, expect bullish moves which may then be limited by other factors. Separate to Mueller's investigation and report, there are 16 other investigations into Trump. If just one sticks, there could be catastrophic collapse of the American markets - with shock waves globally, hitting Forex as well. We have other variables to consider : 1. The Fed 'money printing' press going to be turned up. 2. Bleaker than expected economic projections by the Fed and Draghi. 3. Expected weaker US Dollar - creating bullish pressure in the long term. 4. Flattening or inverted yield curves 5. Uncertainty's and delays on deals with China. 6. Potential Brexit shock waves. 7. Germany struggling against recession. 8. 'Housing' market bubbles in several countries including the US, in trouble. 9. US and Global debt totally out of control. 10 etc. .. and much more. Sorry - I don't know what's gonna happen. I do not give tips on entry positions.
OANDA:US30USDEducation
by Captain_Walker
2
EUR/USD, Daily Chart Analysis March 7Technical Analysis and Outlook The downtrend is in progress, as the currency has broken out of the tight trading zone and violating Mean Sup 1.1330 in the process. However, a significant resistance stands at Mean Res 1.1390 . To the downside, we have newly created weak Mean Sup 1.1306 along with Mean Sup 1.1261 and Key Sup 1.1218 . Other significant downside levels are flagged on the chart. (For more Market Commentary, please visit the TradingSig_dot_com).
by TradingSig
STERLING: Not in a good placeIf you believe big media news headlines you'd be thinking that GBP is on some mega path of recovery. It ain't. The evidence is that GBP is in serious trouble as seen by most of the big daily trends. Unless something miraculous happens big trends like these especially GBPUSD create further probabilities for the south. But on the geopolitical-economic circuit, many in Britain are actually preparing for a 'Hard Brexit'. Should that materialise there is not only gonna be further big trouble for the pound, but for Forex and Stock Markets around the world. Stay tuned folks! Get your popcorn ready. :)
Short
by Captain_Walker
US Dollar under potential threat as de-dollarization sets in.In this screencast, I'm looking ahead for potential moves, possibly south in the US-Dollar. This is about preparedness. In the video I explore emerging geopolitical and macroeconomic issues that are taking place. The US-Dollar strength has big influence at this time on: 1. Commodities 2. Metals - especially Gold and Silver 3. Oil 4. Stock markets in the US and elsewhere. 5. US-Dollar currency pairs. - and more. This thing is big! There is reliable information about a silent forex war happening largely unseen as China, Russia and Japan are giving up US debt, and moving into Gold and Crytocurrencies. I don't do predictions, so I'm unable to say what this would mean for the future. Do not take my word for it - check out this stuff on reliable information channels (unable to give further information here - but PM me if you wish).
FX:USDOLLAREducation
by Captain_Walker
Brace! Avoid being flushed out in the 'Economic Colonic'. In this screencast I show how I attack the US30. It's very different to what you see 'out there'. This is about a robust and real trend-following methodology. And not - I'm not selling anything! WYSIWYG. Totally for free! Everybody deserves a chance. Reality has come home to the markets - globally. There is a mega trade war on at the moment and it has been for several weeks. The impatient and greedy will lose their money to those who are patient and strategic.
FX:US30Education
by Captain_Walker
What's Geopolitics and Ponzi schemes got to do with you?I focus more on historical factors in brief overview in the video. There is an emerging perception that both the EURO and the US Dollar a Ponzi schemes of sorts. How can the US Dollar which is backed by 'thin air' have come to dominate the world. What is a Ponzi scheme? Are there similar elements in both the EURO and the USD? Look and you may see. Geopolitics affects these two. But I'm not really going into the 'fundamental analysis' of this at any deep level, at all. Demand for a currency is influenced by international trade which then is connected to stock markets. I'm not able to dig deeply into the complex interactive connections here. To be clear, I separate Geopolitics from 'Politricks' which I blogged about before. I'm saying that we need to be aware of Geopolitics in the higher time frames like 1D charts. That's not just about currencies - it's also about stock markets. Stuff that may be of interest: A Ponzi Scheme Special Interview Noam Chomsky 2018 A deeper understanding of money from a global pespective - and potential complications, by Yanis Varoufakis The Monetary System Explained - how the Federal Reserve works (or not). Century of Enslavement: The History of The Federal Reserve
Education
by Captain_Walker
EURCAD Weekly forecast. fundamental and technical overviewThe price i currently at the 0.886 Fibonacci level (drawn from (0) to 1.54729 Where i could see the price be in a range zone from 1.55713 to 1.53964 which is also between 0.886 and 1.13 on fibonacci. The price have been in a strong uptrend, where a trend channel also have formed on the daily chart. The price made a new high before starting to decrease, and can be an indicator of further downside so come. the price performed a Bump and run formation, (see my other chart from Mar 18) Long trade levels will be 1.52110 which is also the support line in the daily trend channel and 1.386 on fibonacci. while confer trade in the range area can be made before any breakouts. Short trade levels is the current level where a break of the 1.53964 can give further downside to the support line in the trend channel at 1.52110/1.52000 that is also a psychological level. break of this level will force a new analysis of a new short target. The price can have some struggles to make gains, as geopolitical tensions rise, and therefore rising oil prices, that can give the CAD a boost. also we have a oversold indicator on the RSI that signals a weakness in the upward momentum for further gains. There is a lot of high volatility macroeconomic data coming out the coming 2 weeks. where interest decision and removal of quantitative easing program will be watched closely by investors/traders. _____ Long trade. 1. Sold out on RSI. 2. removal of quantitative easing program in talk. 3. easing geopolitical tensions. 4. More output of oil from US 5. Support at 1.53964 that can give a new run to test the latest top. _______ Short trade. 1. Break of the range zone level 1.53964 2. Weeknes in the RSI. 3. 5 wave sequence 4. Geopolitical tensions. 5. rise in oil prices. 6. steady Interest rate decision with no talks about removal of quantitative easing programs, or postponement of the program 7. Week data Euro zone and Germany
Short
by Fx-AlphaStrats
technical & Political analyses for $GOLD $XAUUSDAs shown from the figure has been penetrating the falling trend under the rise of geopolitical intensity again, but on a personal level, this climb is only temporary and tend to drop the price again In general, in the figure we show the best areas to enter into a sale (I do not recommend) and buy into a sale Please note that in the meantime the mind is in the process of testing the resistance level 1281 NOTICE : This applies to $silver / $XAGUSD and the $EURUSD
TVC:GOLD
by AlaedineHa
USDJPY - MARKET SYMMETRY IN PLAY - LOOKING FOR LONGAs stated on the chart we can see that the price is at a key level, which acted as a turning point in the past and could do the same now as well. As we speak the price action suggests a Morning Star Formation on that level, should the candle close where it is now or even higher. With the tensions on the geopolitical level easing (we can clearly see that with the price of GOLD which is already down by 0.5) we could see investors shifting away from safe heaven assets such as the JPY, GOLD into more risky assets as they become less risk averse. Furthermore one more reason I believe we could be seeing a reversal is that the turning point displayed on the chart in the past occurred on almost the same exact RSI point as it is today which acts as more confirmation. Therefore I would personally be looking for a small pullback on a shorter TF such as the 1H to go long. Awaiting for some more confirmation As always trade safe and do your own due diligence before entering a trade. For further insights join me on: www.valuedbusinessconsulting.com
Long
by Aqua_Trader
2
Yen about to suffer or benefit from geopolitical uncertainty?The USDJPY is approaching a key level on the weekly chart at 110.30. However is this an opportunity to long given the obvious fact that both countries have different monetary policies ? Or given the fact that Abe's popularity is tanking as a result of the scandal may cause markets to reassess the probability of him seeing his abenomics policies to fruition remains to be seen. Read more about it. www.bloomberg.com Thus, probable scenarios moving forward a. 110.30 supported with stop below 108.00 with target at 113.40 and above (Month end flows and FOMCweek) b. 110.30 breached and weekly trendline broken but supported at 109.30 (USDOLLAR continues to tank without finding support) c. Sideways trading between levels 108.40 and 110.30 (Directionless until NFP in August )
by revelationtrading
Xau/Usd $$$ Gold - short term setupNote$ -I was hesitant to short gold mostly because of tensions with North Korea, however IMO any military escalation from now on is unlikely. Market got used to North Korea shooting wanna-be-ICBMs and missiles every now and then. -I expect gold to be losing value til next friday -US inflation data next friday might push Gold up a bit (as per labor report I expect weaker inflation), however I think it will hit top of current downtrend channel followed by further decline -Any new info regarding Trumps tax reform might confluence or diverge with this setup
FX:XAUUSD
by Chuck-Norris
Pending Breakout on CADCHF (~140 pips)Hey all, it's been a quiet couple of days as I've been closing some great trades after having already met my monthly goal. Despite that, I think it's always important to monitor the market for future ideas that may develop when we're ready to trade. CADCHF is showing some signs of being a potentially "safer" medium term idea that should come into play within the next week or two. What we have here is a clear overall descending channel on the daily, but if you look a little closer you'll see that the price is making an upward move in an ascending sub-channel of its own. If you'll look back a few weeks, there was a very similar scenario where we saw the price break out of its own channel for a very lucrative descent (on the 17th of April to be exact). The price itself seems to have it its ascending channel wall so we can expect the price to continue moving up to hit any of the outlined S&R levels before making its big break down to Target 1 which is an important Fib level. If everything goes according to plan, we can expect some consolidation and a brief reversal to give way to a further break down to Target 2 which is both a very strong daily S&R level AND a vital Fib level (from the overall structure). The Risk/Reward diagram is merely for illustrative purposes and can be moved depending on the location of the breakout (which might result in a few more pips). Setup: Entry: 0.72189 SL: 0.72398 TP: 0.71494 and 0.70753 This is merely an idea so always take the necessary precautions when trading!
Short
by Cohiba93
USDJPY safe-haven play on increased geopolitical risksChart of the day: USDJPY. Safe-haven buying kicked in heavily Tuesday, also giving a boost to other local Asian currencies. Geopolitical unrest levels have risen substantially over the last few weeks: Syria, N.Korea, Russia and this has led to a move to buy those 'safer' assets. Gold, Yen all should benefit from the uncertainty. On the Kagi chart the Yen is now back to mid 2016 numbers, breaking out of the bands, but playing on a key Fibonacci 38.2% line at just under 110, which could offer some resistance. A confirmed break here could see the price noise around 106 targeted, then to the lows just under 100. Any rebound in the shorter term has 112 and 115 in its sights.
Short
by StephenHoad
It´s The Politics. Stop Following Technical Analysis ... U.S. investors brace for mounting political risks as they decode Trump Quote: Barry James built up his $4 billion mutual fund largely by studying balance sheets, earnings and market share. In the last few weeks, however, he has realized that he must look at a new force in the market: U.S. President Donald Trump. Trump's unpredictable governing style and stated desire to renegotiate trade agreements and punish companies that seek out lower-cost forms of labor are upending the classic notion of fundamental investing, said James, who manages the James Balanced Golden Rainbow fund. Source: www.investing.com
TVC:SPXLong
by SwissView
1