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Geopolitics

Managing Oil Price Uncertainty with Micro WTI StraddlesYou cannot predict the future, but you can prepare for it. This is even more true for crude oil prices. Forces driving and pulling back oil prices are in full play in parallel at the same time. Oil prices remain at the risk to both the upside and the downside concurrently. Take this week as an example. WTI prices started with a rally extending a three-day uptrend of >7% following Fed’s hint at rate cuts plus heightened tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. The rally reversed as tensions eased. Crude oil prices crashed 3.8% over Tuesday & Wednesday on fears of feeble demand. RATE CUTS AND GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS DRIVE OIL PRICES HIGHER The US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has signalled that the time to pivot was about now when speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium last week on 23/Aug. This boosted optimism for oil prices, fuelling a rally reversing a price slump caused by weak Chinese economic data and disappointing US payroll revisions. Chair Powell’s remarks lifted market sentiment, leading to gains in oil prices and the dollar weakening. A feeble dollar makes oil cheaper for non US consumers and can help increase demand pushing up oil prices. Source: CME FedWatch Tool According to CME’s FedWatch tool , there is a 67.5% likelihood of a 25 basis points (“bps”) rate cut and a 32.5% chance of a 50 bps rate reduction at the September FOMC meeting. Sadly, the tensions in the Middle East continue to prevail. Last weekend, Hezbollah launched rockets and drones into Israel, prompting a swift response from Israel's military, which deployed around 100 jets to prevent a larger attack. Adding to these factors are disruptions in oil production in Libya and Colombia. The easing of tensions between Hezbollah and Israel reduced supply fears, with some speculating that Iran might view Hezbollah's missile attacks as sufficient retaliation. Despite easing tensions, supply concerns persist in Libya threatening to reduce oil production by 1.2m bpd. WEAKENING DEMAND AND OVER PRODUCTION COULD PULL OIL PRICES BACK Concerns over weak oil demand from China, a global economic slowdown on the horizon, and elevated Russian crude production is keeping oil prices under check. Russia has exceeded its OPEC+ production targets since March, leading to excess supply that is undermining the impact of OPEC+ production cuts and keeping prices low. Source: OPEC and IEA On Wednesday, the EIA reported a decline of 846,000 barrels in US crude inventories for the week ending 23/Aug, falling short of analyst expectations of a 2.7 million barrel drawdown. The market response to this smaller-than-expected inventory decrease was muted. Demand for crude and gasoline will soften as US summer driving season ends first week of September. Expectations of weaker US gasoline demand and lower refining margins have led several refiners to scale down their operations reducing demand for crude. The largest US refiner, Marathon Petroleum ( NYSE:MPC ), announced that it will reduce its refining capacity to 90% this quarter, the lowest for a Q3 since 2020. PBF Energy ( NYSE:PBF ) will lower its capacity utilization to a three-year low, and Phillips 66 ( NYSE:PSX ) will cut its capacity to a two-year low. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley reduced their 2025 Brent crude forecast to USD 77/barrel and USD 75/barrel respectively. Reasons cited for reducing forecasts include weaker Chinese demand, higher inventories, oversupply from OPEC countries, and rising US shale production for the downward revision. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Over the past two weeks, crude oil prices have been volatile for reasons mentioned above. Looking ahead, rate cuts in September, the ongoing crisis in Libya, and reduced US gasoline demand will fuel further uncertainty to oil prices in the near term. This is evident from rising WTI crude oil implied volatility. Earlier on 05/Aug it slid from its YTD high of 44.7 but has started to pick up again. Source: CME CVOL Establishing a directional position amid such uncertain backdrop is rife with risks. Long straddles using Micro WTI Crude Oil Options offer an effective way to capitalize on rising volatility. Straddles are designed to benefit from (a) significant price movements in the underlying asset regardless of the price move and (b) volatility spikes. Sharp oil price moves, and volatility spike are to be expected given the current context. Straddles provides “unlimited” profit potential combined with limited downside risk. A straddle comprises of two trade legs, namely, a long ATM call option combined with a long ATM put option. This paper posits a long straddle on CME Micro WTI options expiring on 17th September. Micro WTI options provide exposure to 100 barrels of WTI crude offering a smaller contract size and lower premium requirements. Based on 30/August market prices, this hypothetical trade set-up uses CME Micro WTI Crude Oil options expiring on 17th September and involves (a) Buying a 76 ATM Call, and (b) Buying a 76 ATM Put. The premiums for each leg and the corresponding option Greeks as shown QuikStrike Strategy Simulator are shown below for ease of reference. The straddle requires USD 1.91 per barrel in premium for the long call and USD 1.8 per barrel for the long put. In aggregate the straddle would cost USD 3.71 a barrel. Each CME Micro WTI Crude Oil option comprises 100 barrels which translates to a premium of USD 371 per lot. When Micro WTI Crude Oil futures trade past break-even points as shown in the chart, this straddle will deliver positive returns. • Lower break-even point: 76 - 3.71 = 72.29 • Upper break-even point: 76 + 3.71 = 79.71 However, at expiry, if Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures prices settle between USD 72.29 and USD 79.71 a barrel, this straddle will incur a maximum loss of USD 3.71/barrel or USD 371/lot. The straddle pay-off are summarized in the table below to augment the above chart, illustrating the potential P/L of this trade at a few settlement prices. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by mintdotfinance
Why is the Canadian Dollar Outperforming Expectations?A Deep Dive into the Unexpected Resilience of the CAD In a landscape marked by economic uncertainty, the Canadian dollar has defied the odds, exhibiting remarkable resilience. This unexpected strength is a result of a complex interplay of factors, including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, market dynamics, and global commodity trends. The Federal Reserve's Pivotal Role The Federal Reserve's shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy has been a key driver of the CAD's rally. The Fed's hints at potential rate cuts, especially in response to a weakening labor market, have weakened the U.S. dollar, boosting the appeal of other G10 currencies, including the CAD. This has created a favorable environment for the Canadian dollar, as investors seek higher-yielding alternatives to the U.S. dollar. Short Covering and Positioning Dynamics Another significant factor contributing to the CAD's strength is a wave of short covering. Traders had previously bet against the CAD, anticipating a divergence between the easing cycles of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada. However, as the U.S. dollar weakened and the CAD began to rise, these short positions became increasingly unsustainable. Traders were forced to unwind their bets, adding momentum to the CAD's rally. The Impact of Rising Oil Prices Canada's significant oil exports make it particularly sensitive to fluctuations in oil prices. The recent increase in crude oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions and potential supply disruptions, has provided a further boost to the CAD. As a major oil producer, Canada benefits from higher oil prices, which can lead to increased exports and a stronger currency. Assessing the Risks and Challenges While the CAD's rally has been impressive, it is important to acknowledge the potential risks and challenges that could undermine its momentum. The Bank of Canada's rate cuts, although expected, could narrow yield differentials and put pressure on the CAD. Additionally, ongoing global uncertainties and subdued risk appetite could limit the loonie's upside potential. Key Data to Watch Several key data releases will be closely monitored in the coming weeks. Canada's GDP data will provide insights into the health of the Canadian economy and could influence the Bank of Canada's policy trajectory. Meanwhile, U.S. economic reports, such as PCE, will be watched for potential shifts that could affect the USD/CAD exchange rate. Conclusion The Canadian dollar's unexpected resilience is a testament to its strength in a challenging economic environment. While the current momentum is positive, investors should remain cautious and closely monitor key economic indicators. By understanding the underlying factors driving the CAD's rally and assessing the potential risks, investors can make informed decisions about their currency exposure.
Short
by signalmastermind
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Aug 23, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar showed strong upward momentum throughout this week's trading session. It reached our Key Resistance at 1.111 and completed the Inner Currency Rally at 1.112. Further buying pressure pushed the price to complete an extended Inner Currency Rally at 1.120, with the potential to reach the completed Outer Currency Rally at 1.124. Conversely, selling pressure at the current level could drive the price down to our Support level of 1.111.
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Aug 23, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin has surpassed our Mean Resistance of 61700 and completed Interim Coin Rally 62200, finishing extended Interim Coin Rally 64900. Presently, the coin is positioned for further upward movement with a primary target of 68500 and a retest of our completed Main Inner Coin Rally 73200. The selling pressure at this level may cause the coin's price to decline toward the Mean Support level of 56600, possibly extending to the Mean Support level of 60300.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
What's unraveling the economic powerhouse of Europe?Once a stalwart of European stability, Germany's economic engine is facing unprecedented challenges. This deep dive explores the intricate factors driving its recession and the far-reaching implications for the continent. Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions have wreaked havoc on Germany's economy. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine, coupled with the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, has disrupted energy supplies, increased production costs, and hindered global trade. Rising interest rates and weak global demand have further exacerbated the downturn. The European Central Bank's aggressive monetary tightening to combat inflation has made borrowing more expensive for businesses and consumers, dampening investment and spending. Meanwhile, a global economic slowdown, driven by factors such as rising interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and inflation, has reduced demand for German exports, a crucial driver of its economy. The consequences for Germany and Europe are profound, with potential for increased unemployment, slower growth, and political instability. As Germany is one of Europe's largest economies, its downturn has a ripple effect on other countries in the region. The recession could lead to job losses, as businesses cut costs to weather the storm, exacerbating social tensions and increasing the burden on government welfare systems. Slower growth in Germany will contribute to slower growth in the Eurozone as a whole, limiting the ECB's ability to raise interest rates further and potentially hindering its efforts to combat inflation. Economic downturns can often lead to political instability, as governments face increased pressure to implement policies that alleviate economic hardship. This could lead to political gridlock or even changes in government. Can Germany weather this storm? Join us as we delve into the complexities of this economic enigma and explore potential paths forward.
XETR:DAXShort
by signalmastermind
Will Gold Hit $3,000 with Fed Rate Cuts and Geopolitical Risks?Gold has outperformed the broader U.S. stock market this year, with analysts predicting further gains as the Federal Reserve nears rate cuts. Gold surged to a new record high of over $2,500 per ounce, and some experts forecast it could reach $3,000 next year. Key drivers include potential Fed easing, geopolitical uncertainties, and increased demand from central banks diversifying away from the U.S. dollar. As interest rates decline, gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset continues to grow.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by signalmastermind
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Aug 16, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar exhibited consistent upward momentum throughout the current week's trading session. It successfully retested the Mean Resistance level of 1.099 and the completed Inner Currency Rally at 1.100. The breakthrough of these thresholds led to the establishment of a new Mean Resistance at 1.104. A breach of this pivotal level may incite rapid upward movement, targeting the Key Res 1.111 and culminating in the completion of the Inner Currency Rally at 1.112. Conversely, the prevailing downward analysis projects a sustained descent toward a critical Mean Support level of 1.097.
by TradeSelecter
Triggers for Major Corrections a.k.a. Black SwansIn the world of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, extreme volatility is the norm, not the exception. However , certain unexpected events — the so-called "Black Swans" — can trigger particularly severe corrections. These events, often unforeseen, can send shockwaves through the market, leading to sharp declines in BITSTAMP:BTCUSD value. Here are some real-world scenarios that could potentially trigger such corrections: 1. World Economy While Bitcoin has been around for just over a decade, it's shown a tendency to follow traditional financial markets, particularly the S&P 500. A major global economic crisis — say, a sudden collapse of a large economy like US or the escalation of geopolitical tensions — could lead to a broad retail sell-off across all asset classes. Investors might liquidate Bitcoin holdings to cover losses in traditional assets, triggering a sharp decline in its price. For instance, during the COVID-19 market crash in Feb/March 2020, Bitcoin plummeted( -63% ) alongside global stocks, demonstrating its vulnerability to wider economic turmoil. 2. Regulators Regulate Regulatory risks have always been a shadow hanging over the cryptocurrency market. Imagine if the US or the EU suddenly decided to implement draconian laws against Bitcoin, such as banning institutional investment or severely restricting trading. This isn’t far-fetched; we’ve seen something similar in China in 2021, where a nationwide crackdown on crypto mining and trading led to a significant drop in BITSTAMP:BTCUSD price( -49% in May ). If a similar scenario were to play out in the West, it could easily lead to a mass exodus from the cryptocurrency, causing its value to plummet. 3. Geopolitics Geopolitical tensions have a way of shaking up financial markets. Consider the potential fallout if tensions in the Middle East were to boil over into a full-scale conflict, or if relations between NATO and Russia were to deteriorate further. Such scenarios could trigger global uncertainty, leading to a flight to safer assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries — and a corresponding sell-off in riskier assets like Bitcoin. The war in Ukraine in 2022 caused significant turbulence in BITSTAMP:BTCUSD price( -61% ), and a similar or more severe event could have a chilling effect on Bitcoin. 4. Hacking Bitcoin’s strength lies in its technology, but that’s also a potential point of failure. If there were to be a significant flaw discovered in the BTC protocol, or if a major exchange were to suffer a catastrophic hack, it could erode trust in the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem. We’ve seen echoes of this before: the Mt. Gox hack in 2014 wiped out a substantial portion of BITSTAMP:BTCUSD in circulation at the time, leading to a massive price drop( -38% ). A similar event today could be even more devastating, given the broader adoption of Bitcoin. 5. Fraud In November 2022, the investigation revealed that FTX management, including its founder Sam Bankman-Fried, illegally used customer funds to cover losses of a related company, Alameda Research. This led to a loss of investor and customer confidence, causing a massive withdrawal of funds, which in turn led to the bankruptcy of the exchange - and the subsequent severe correction of BITSTAMP:BTCUSD ( -26% ). Thoughts Bitcoin's rollercoaster ride is anything but smooth. Wild swings in price can come from anywhere—regulations, market bubbles, or even major collapses like FTX. For investors, the game is about staying sharp and ready for whatever comes next. The crypto world is full of surprises, and knowing that the next big shock could be just around the corner is key to keeping your cool and making smart moves.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Paramonov95
1
Domino Effect -Australia's Exposure to a Sino-Taiwanese ConflictA potential armed conflict in the Taiwan Strait poses significant geopolitical risks with profound economic implications for Australia. As a key member of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance, Australia’s strategic interests are deeply intertwined with regional stability. The potential impact of such a conflict on the Australian economy. Economic Impact Assessment A Sino-Taiwanese conflict would likely trigger severe economic disruptions for Australia. The nation's reliance on China as a primary trading partner, particularly in the mining and agricultural sectors, would exacerbate the negative impacts. Key sectors and their potential implications are outlined below: Mining: As a dominant contributor to Australia's GDP and a significant component of the S&P/ASX 200, the mining sector would face substantial challenges. Disruptions to iron ore and coal exports to China would negatively impact major mining companies such as BHP Group and Rio Tinto, collectively representing approximately 5% of the index. Agriculture: Given China's status as a key market for Australian agricultural products, the sector would experience significant revenue losses. This would affect companies involved in grain, meat, and dairy production, although their overall weight in the S&P/ASX 200 is relatively smaller. Tourism: The tourism industry, still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic, would face renewed challenges due to decreased international travel. Qantas Airways, a prominent component of the S&P/ASX 200, would be directly affected by declining passenger numbers. Financial Services: The broader financial system would likely experience increased volatility, credit rating downgrades, and elevated insurance claims. Australia's major banks, including Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, and ANZ, which collectively hold substantial weight in the S&P/ASX 200, would be exposed to these risks. Implications for the S&P/ASX 200 The S&P/ASX 200, as a market-capitalization-weighted index, would undoubtedly reflect the economic challenges posed by a Sino-Taiwanese conflict. Given the significant weightings of mining and financial services in the index, a sharp decline is highly probable. The severity and duration of the market downturn would depend on the scale and duration of the conflict. Historical Precedent While direct comparisons are limited due to evolving economic structures and geopolitical contexts, historical data from World War II and the Korean War provide valuable insights. Both periods were characterized by significant market volatility, with sharp declines followed by varying recovery periods. Conclusion A Sino-Taiwanese conflict presents substantial economic risks for Australia, with the S&P/ASX 200 serving as a barometer of these challenges. The potential impact on the Australian economy and financial markets underscores the importance of robust risk management strategies and contingency planning.
ASX:XJOShort
by signalmastermind
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Aug 9, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin encountered a substantial decline during this week's trading session, reaching Mean Support 55800 and Key Support 53800, and subsequently retesting completed Outer Coin Dip 54000. The considerable selling pressure finalized Outer Coin Dip 51000 and major Key Support 50700. The overall upward trend remains ongoing, leading to the establishment of a new Mean Resistance 61700 and the completion of the Interim Coin Rally 62600. The potential extension towards Mean Resistance 65500 and 68500 holds significant promise for the forthcoming week's sessions. The likelihood of temporary downward pressure toward the Mean Support at 57400 exists before the coin resumes its upward trajectory.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Rheinmetall opportunity of 25% upsideRheinmetall dipped today due to concerns of the European "far-right" (half of them centrists lmao) wanting peace with Russia in the future. This doesn't change anything for Rheinmetall though. Key facts: - Earnings grew by 21.8% over the 2023. - Earnings are forecast to grow 26.06% per year. - Revenue expected to grow 40% this year. - New deal with Continental Ag. to hire new employees to fulfill the demand. - Fair value estimated at 1100-1200 EUR per share. War scenarios: - A new conflict means growth of 5% + for each arms dealer as seen many times. - If the war in Ukraine continues, Rheinmetall gets more deals. - If the war ends, European countries will need to replenish ammunition storages, which is expected to take up to 10-15 years. Additionaly: - Both Trump and Kennedy Jr. expressed how European NATO members should start to fulfill their obligations of 2% GDP budget for army if they want the US to protect them. - Around 17-18 countries do not meet this obligation yet, most of them being customers of Rheinmetall already. - The total combined deficit of these countries sits around 44 billion USD as of 2024. Sources: www.reuters.com www.reuters.com www.ft.com simplywall.st
GETTEX:RHMLong
by rtlustymen
8
England's Economic Crossroads and Banking ResilienceEngland’s economy is facing a complex array of challenges, driven by domestic social unrest, geopolitical tensions, and evolving labor dynamics. Recent riots, sparked by both marginalized Muslim communities and extreme right-wing groups, highlight deep-seated socio-economic issues. These tensions have been exacerbated by international events, such as the October 7, 2023, incident in Israel, which reverberated through England's Muslim community. In addition to these social and geopolitical pressures, the economic indicators present a mixed picture. Inflation, unemployment, and a housing crisis have strained the economy, while regional conflicts, such as the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine wars, pose further risks to energy prices, trade, and security. Amidst this backdrop, the Bank of England’s recent declaration that top UK lenders can be dismantled without taxpayer bailouts is a significant milestone. This statement reflects the progress made since the 2008 financial crisis in enhancing the resilience of the UK banking system through stricter capital requirements and resolvability assessments. However, emerging risks such as climate change, cyberattacks, and global financial interconnectedness require continuous vigilance and robust regulation. Inspiration and Challenge: As traders and investors, understanding the interplay between social dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and financial stability is crucial. England’s current economic state challenges us to think beyond traditional metrics and consider the broader implications of regional conflicts and social unrest on financial markets. The resilience of the UK banking system offers a glimmer of stability, but it also calls for ongoing scrutiny of emerging risks. Engage with this analysis to deepen your strategic insights and navigate the complexities of the global economic landscape.
FTSE:UKXShort
by signalmastermind
GOLD - ATH Amid Middle East Unrest and Fed Rate Cut Signals Gold Futures Surge Amid Middle East Tensions and Fed Rate Cut Speculations Gold futures soared to a new all-time high last week, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and increased expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. The geopolitical situation remains highly volatile, maintaining a bullish outlook for gold prices. Technical Analysis: Gold Current Outlook: Gold prices have stabilized within a bullish zone, currently targeting $2,475 with a potential correction towards $2,428. Bullish Scenario: If gold remains stable above $2,428, the bullish trend may extend towards $2,466 and $2,475, with an ultimate aim for an all-time high (ATH) around $2,493. Bearish Scenario: Conversely, stabilization below $2,420 could support a decline towards $2,397, and potentially further down to $2,378. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: $2,428 - Resistance Levels: $2,450, $2,475, $2,493 - *upport Levels: $2,428, $2,420, $2,397 Today's Expected Trading Range: Prices are anticipated to fluctuate between the support level at $2,428 and the resistance level at $2,493. This advanced analysis considers the impact of geopolitical events and central bank policies on gold's market performance, reflecting both immediate trading opportunities and potential risks.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SroshMayi
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Aug 2, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the most recent trading session, the Eurodollar displayed its ability to recover from the completed Inner Currency Dip of 1.082 and Mean Support levels of 1.081 and 1.078. The prevailing analysis indicates a sustained upward trajectory toward a Mean Support level and its associated completed Inner Currency Dip of 1.094. These critical targets may prompt swift downward movements toward a Mean Support of 1.083, potentially extending to target the subsequent Mean Support level of 1.078.
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Aug 2, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin experienced a significant drop from an attempt to complete the Inner Coin Rally of 70400. However, the Mean Resistance 68200 was the main barrier during this week's trading session. The overall trend suggests a recovery towards Mean Resistance 65300, with a possible extension to Mean Resistance 68200 and Inner Coin Rally 70400. There may be interim downward pressure toward the Mean Support at 55800 before the coin resumes its up movement.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
The Silent Assassin - A New Era of Targeted WarfareDelve into the world of precision weaponry with a deep dive into the Lockheed Martin AGM-114 R9X. This non-explosive missile, designed for targeted elimination, challenges traditional warfare concepts. Explore its technical capabilities, potential implications for global security, and ethical considerations. This analysis explores the Lockheed Martin AGM-114 R9X, a specialized missile designed for precision strikes with minimal collateral damage. Often referred to as the 'Ninja Missile,' the R9X has gained notoriety for its role in high-profile operations. This article delves into the technical specifications, operational history, and implications of this unconventional weapon system. Key Points: Detailed technical breakdown of the R9X's design and functioning. Analysis of the R9X's role in counterterrorism operations, particularly the killing of Ayman al-Zawahiri. Examination of the ethical and legal implications of using such a weapon. Comparative analysis of the R9X with other precision strike systems. Assessment of the R9X's potential for future development and applications. Let's Focus on the Ethical Implications of the R9X The ethical dimensions of the R9X are particularly compelling. Given its precision and the potential to minimize civilian casualties, it raises complex questions about the changing nature of warfare. Hellfire is a low-collateral damage, precision air-to-ground missile with semi-active laser guidance for use against light armor and personnel. Missiles are used on the MQ-9 Reaper. AFSOC dropped previous plans to integrate the weapons onto its AC-130W gunships in favor of the Small Glide Munition. Hellfire is procured through the Army, and numerous variants are utilized based on overseas contingency demands. An MQ-1 Predator employed Hellfire in combat for the first time in Afghanistan on Oct. 7, 2001. The latest AGM-114R replaces several types with a single, multitarget weapon, and USAF is also buying variable Height-of-Burst (HOB) kits to enhance lethality. The next-generation Joint Air-to-Ground Missile (JAGM) is also procured via the Army, and adds a new multimode guidance section to the AGM-114R. JAGM is used against high-value moving or stationary targets in all weather. FY21 funds 2,497 Hellfire/JAGM via a common production contract.
NYSE:LMTLong
by signalmastermind
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 5, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: During this week's trading session, the Eurodollar has surpassed the Mean Resistance level of 1.074 and is currently positioned below the Mean Resistance level of 1.085. The present analysis indicates a potential down movement for the Euro to the Mean Resistance level of 1.078 and subsequently decrease to the Mean Support level of 1.074. However, it is essential to acknowledge the potential for an upward extension towards the Mean Resistance level of 1.090.
by TradeSelecter
LMT a defense large cap dips for buyers LONGLMT has been flat sideways since a good earnings beat 5 weeks ago. Lockheed Martin as a defense contractor is in a growth environment with the US supplying arms to Ukraine as well a Isreal. Domestic stockpiles and those of NATO are somewhat depleted. The contraacts will not catch up for years. Gone are the days of making face masks and gowns during COVID to keep revenues flowing in. I see this 2% dip as a change to get a small discount on what should be a stock with upside for some years to come. This is a long swing trade not expectant of a 3-4% profit in a week. I expect to hold this at least until the next earnings if not through the presidential elections where the defense and national security perspectives of the incoming or returning president may be a factor in the fundamentals of defense contractors.
NYSE:LMTLong
by AwesomeAvani
USO / UCO a play on barrel oil shock LONGUCO is shown here as a one month trend - It is sitting on the rising support tendline about 2% below the recent high. Oil prices contribute to inflation. Anyone in the USA is aware of gasoline prices at the pump. Geopolitics plays into price. At present, US Navy warships are consuming refined oil and heading to the Middle East. Iran and Russia are sanctioned and must sell oil on the global market ( primarily India and China ) at artificially low prices. If Iran retaliates against Isreal, its oil infrastructure will be bombed back into the Stone Age in less than a day or two by the US. Global oil prices will spike nearly instantly from spot oil to futures. US Domestic producers will benefit ; the insane net cash flow to them will dramatically increase quickly. Russia will sell more oil to make up for Iran being taken off supply but will not capitalize so much given the sanctions. The price of oil will likely go north of $100 USD / barrel and potentially higher. Iran could go nuclear and any residual oil infrastructure would be turned into a quagmire of scrap metal in another day of work for the US Navy bombers and the fighter jets that escort them into strategic missions. Defense contractor stocks will spike as well. This could be a black swan event. My trading dictates that I add to my positions and average in until price goes against my idea. I am increasing my positions in gold and silver along with ETFs inversing the indices banks and financial stocks until the dust is settled. This includes any plays on VIX. I will also look at individual domestic oil stocks as well as junior precious metal miners.
AMEX:USOLong
by AwesomeAvani
5
US30 (Technical and Geopolitical Weekly Analysis)Technical and Geopolitical Analysis: The previous weekly chart indicated a strong upward movement, but the market is now poised to react to geopolitical pressures, particularly the tensions between China and Taiwan, expected to intensify this week and continue into next month. Technical Analysis: Bullish Scenario: If the price stabilizes above 38,700, it is likely to move between 38,700 and 40,050. Any sustained stability above 40,005 will signal a continuation of the bullish trend, potentially reaching 40,970. A retest at 40,005 could occur before the bullish trend resumes. Bearish Scenario: The bearish trend will be confirmed if the price closes below 38,700 on at least the daily chart, targeting 37,990. The next significant support level is 36,460, which is strong support for this year. Key Levels: Pivot Line: 38,700 Resistance Prices: 39,500, 40,005, 40,970 Support Prices: 38,300, 37,990, 36,460 The expected trading range will be between the support at 37,990 and the resistance at 40,050.
OANDA:US30USDShort
by SroshMayi
OIL - Getting Slippery?🩸Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📉 After breaking below the last major low marked in red at $84.5, OIL has been overall bearish , trading within the rising channel in blue. 📈 For the bulls to regain control, a break above the last major high marked in blue is needed. 📚 Meanwhile, OIL would be bearish and can still trade lower to test the $75 - $76.25 support zone. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
TVC:USOIL
by TheSignalyst
5
USD on the Rise? Concerns for the EUR. We'll see at 07:30 CSTUSD trying to gain a foothold after yesterdays lows due to a Higher than Expected Unemployment Claims report. The DXY dipped high in the morning from around 105.740, dropping to a low of around 105.200 and then went up slightly into a consolidating in a range from 105.332 high to 105.204 low. That being said USDCAD took a hard drop yesterday. These moves were beneficial to the AUDUSD & NZDUSD pairs as AUDUSD soared to a high of around 0.66230, retracing back to around 0.65994 before rising slightly into a consolidation pattern. NZD had the same affect reaching a high of around 0.60400 before retracing to a low of 0.60142, retracing near the high before settling down into consolidation. EUR pairs having the same reaction . GBP & EUR news releases early this morning being mostly favorable for the pairs, USD trying to get a footing with the demand of Gold & Silver still on the rise, we're seeing some uncertainty in the market as we come to an end of weeks closing. Awaiting further CAD Unemployment Claims report scheduled later this morning at 07:30 CST, this could be a make it or break it moment for the USD as we come to a close, pushing us into a Reversal for the week ahead or pushing us further down. Good Hunting Traders.
TVC:DXY
by RagingSniper