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Geopolitics

💶 EUR; Lowest Rate in 19 Years ( Risk of Energy Crisis )🆖As the risks of an energy crisis increase, the euro is nearing its lowest level in 19 years Today, the price of natural gas has increased by 9%, and the price of electricity for one year in Germany is 14 times higher than the level of one year ago. The numbers are crippling for heavy industries, with Germany's DAX down 2.3 percent today, the steepest drop in the global index. The euro has strengthened over the past six weeks as the US dollar weakened against a less accommodative Federal Reserve, but that rally appears to have come to an end. Meanwhile, Europe's economic outlook is rapidly deteriorating. The EUR/USD low was at0.9952 in July and is now about 20 pips away. If this rate breaks, the euro will hit its lowest level since late 2002.What is surprising is that the people of Europe have not yet realized how bad the economic situation will be. There is a lag in energy price increases that has not yet been felt and depends on different countries and contract structures, but there is a lot of difficulty ahead. ✌️ Good luck with your trading and investing and remember: Trade smart…OR JUST DON’T TRADE! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👉This analysis is my personal opinion ,not a financial advice ,so do your own research. 💚 if you're fan of my analyses please follow me , give a big thumbs 👍 OR drop a comment 🗯
by PRO_SMART_Trader
5
What Would Happen to Henry Hub NG if China Attacks Taiwan?Since last week the media has published videos and Chinese politicians' statements about the Chinese military drills near Taiwan. Taiwan has also conducted military exercises and preparatory work with the civilian population in the event of an attack. On August 3, the NYT, quoting Chinese state media, published an article about the following Chinese military drills scheduled on August 4 and a place of exercises. Chinese media offered five swaths of the sea surrounding Taiwan. If true, it can be a hostile act, possibly igniting conflict between China and unrecognized Taiwan. Both countries are essential for the world economy, meaning the conflict would affect markets. I hope it will not happen . However, this risk urged me to start a series of posts ' What would happen to asset_name if China attacks Taiwan? ' A brief: China is the second economy in the world by nominal GDP. China is the main trading party for the US, Europe, and many other countries and regions. The country is also a giant gas consumer and LNG importer. According to the EIA, the US was the fourth LNG supplier in China in 2021. Henry Hub natural gas is a local benchmark. However, its price partly depends on the US LNG trade achievements and obstacles. In case of a conflict, it would halt LNG export to Taiwan. I estimate Henry Hub participants would also wait for sanctions on Chinese banks or even prohibition of gas trade with China. These would drive expectations of short-term oversupply in the US local market resulting in a sharp price drop of natural gas in America. In the end, some LNG exporters would change their export from China and Taiwan to other Asian countries, e.g., South Korea, Japan, and India. Other LNG sellers would divert shipments to Europe, suffering from high continent natural gas prices , bringing relief to Europe in terms of volumes and price. The main shock could happen later. Possible export and import prohibitions between China and the US with Allies would bring manufacturing decline, pushing gas demand lower and cutting its price. It would get a more sustained bearish effect on Henry Hub prices than temporary shipment redirection. With the technical analysis help, I estimate a first bearish move could put prices down to a support level of $6.4/MMBtu . Then, in case of sanctions, it would go down to the next support of $5.5/MMBtu . It is hard to forecast how long Taiwan can fight and what sanctions will be imposed. I doubt that sensitive restrictions would be imposed during the first days. I also doubt that the US will impose harsh O&G sanctions if China takes over Taiwan quickly. I expect it could happen a month after the start of the conflict. Breaking $5.5/MMBtu through, it would drop to the last winter's $4/MMBtu . Put options are the best instruments for shorting HH on the potential conflict. For the first target of $6.4/MMBtu , the option with the corresponding strike and expiration in September could suit well. For the following targets of $5.5/MMBtu and $4/MMBtu , I suppose corresponding strikes with October and November expiration. For futures traders, I guess a stop-loss is $8.5/MMBtu . The stop-loss is ugly and huge in today's Henry Hub Volatility environment. Timing for the trade matters much. I believe that options with an end-of-month expiration date could be good. The position holding period is 7 days to next Thursday. If the bad doesn't happen, it is better to close the long put or futures short position. However, we do not know the date. Solely China knows the exact date if the plan exists. The risk could realize during the next 7 days or be postponed to next month or even later. If the risk realizes later, I expect the same effect on the market, and only target adjustments could be needed. I wish you peace! Thank you for your reading, and have profitable trading! Comment your thoughts!
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by Nikita_Kalinin
1
What Would Happen to Gold if China Attacks Taiwan?Since last week the media has published videos and Chinese politicians' statements about the Chinese military drills near Taiwan. Taiwan has also conducted military exercises and preparatory work with the civilian population in the event of an attack. On August 3, the NYT, quoting Chinese state media, published an article about the following Chinese military drills scheduled on August 4 and a place of exercises. Chinese media offered five swaths of the sea surrounding Taiwan. If true, it can be a hostile act, possibly igniting conflict between China and unrecognized Taiwan. Both countries are essential for the world economy, meaning the conflict would affect markets. I hope it will not happen . However, this risk urged me to start a series of posts 'What would happen to asset_name if China attacks Taiwan?' A brief: China is the second economy in the world by nominal GDP. China is the top producer and buyer of gold in the world. It is the sixth largest gold holder, owning 1948 MT at the end of Q1 2022. A possible conflict would drive the gold price to break the last resistance of $1790/oz t and move to the middle of the May-June range to $1840/oz t in the short term. The longer the conflict exists, the more sanctions I expect. I can't predict how long Taiwan can fight and what sanctions will be imposed. If the conflict lasts several months, developed nations could prohibit Chinese gold, as they have done with Russian gold. You could see it as a bullish sign. However, China could probit gold imports. The action will decrease demand and weigh on the price. The position holding period is 7 days to next Thursday. Unfortunately, I do not see a good level for stop-loss. If the bad doesn't happen, it is better to close the long. However, we do not know the date. Solely China knows the exact date if the plan exists. The risk could realize during the next 7 days or be postponed to next month or even later. If the risk realizes later, I expect the same effect on the gold price, and only target adjustments could be needed. I wish you peace! Thank you for your reading, and have profitable trading! Comment your thoughts!
TVC:GOLD
by Nikita_Kalinin
What Would Happen to Bitcoin if China Attacks Taiwan?Since last week the media has published videos and Chinese politicians' statements about the Chinese military drills near Taiwan. Taiwan has also conducted military exercises and preparatory work with the civilian population in the event of an attack. On August 3, the NYT, quoting Chinese state media, published an article about the following Chinese military drills scheduled on August 4 and a place of exercises. Chinese media offered five swaths of the sea surrounding Taiwan. If true, it can be a hostile act, possibly igniting conflict between China and unrecognized Taiwan. Both countries are essential for the world economy, meaning the conflict would affect markets. I hope it will not happen . However, this risk urged me to start a series of posts ' What would happen to asset_name if China attacks Taiwan? ' A brief: China is the second economy in the world by nominal GDP. Taiwan is the heart of semiconductor manufacturing for all industries across the globe. In my opinion, Bitcoin today is a risk appetite indicator, which regularly mimics or outpaces changes in the notable stock indexes, e.g., S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. The risk realization would trigger risk aversion pushing the BTC price to the last local support level of $19000. The stop-loss is the previous local high of $24500. However, the level can slightly differ from the spot price. The main risk is conflict duration. The longer the conflict exists, the more sanctions I expect. I can't predict how long Taiwan can fight and what sanctions will be imposed. I doubt that sensitive restrictions would be imposed during the first days. I also doubt that the US will impose harsh sectoral sanctions if China takes over Taiwan quickly. If the conflict would last several months, I suppose bitcoin could drop significantly to $14000. The position holding period is 7 days to next Thursday. If the bad doesn't happen, it is better to close the short position. However, we do not know the date. Solely China knows the exact date if the plan exists. The risk could realize during the next 7 days or be postponed to next month or even later. If the risk realizes later, I expect the same effect on the BTC, and only target adjustments could be needed. Additionally, the potential conflict would seriously weigh on crypto mining activity because of semiconductor manufacturing termination in Taiwan. A probable semiconductors' deficit leads to the rise of GPU's price in the midterm, elevating mining costs. Miners would have to adapt to the new reality. I wish you peace! Thank you for your reading, and have profitable trading! Comment your thoughts!
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Nikita_Kalinin
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For July 29, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook: After completing on July 20 our Outer Coin Rally of $24,150 and retreating to Mean Sup $20,780 (See Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For July 22), Bitcoin bounced back to competed Coin Rally and showing signs of extending its rally to Outer Coin Rally #27,800. However, if all fails, the coin will take us back down to Mean Sup $20,780, with a strong possibility to Key Sup $18,900 and beyond.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
BTCUSD weekly (26/07/2022): In this logarithmic scale analysis of the BTC/USD pair in BITSMAP, where the trajectory of these fluctuations since their incorporation together with the blockchain in the market is found, we are going to analyze possible key trend changes previously as well as the high probability of having reached a theoretical absolute background. Mainly we understand on a macro or weekly scale in bitcoin certain bearish patterns of change in trend, we have two similarities in the funds generated in previous cycles and transferred to the current one. In addition, we understand the importance of a Wyckoff change pattern as well as its phases that will be explained in later analyses. We must pay attention to the minimum areas of the RSI around 25 points. The break of the moving average of 200 periods consolidating under it a brief temporary interval. And finally the gauge cluster pressure zones in the Phoenix Ascending indicated in red. All this warns us of wonderful long-term Bitcoin buy zones and for Holdeo, with a well-measured key strategy. Geopolitical uncertainty has yet to give traditional markets great fear scares due to the non-existent supply of cheap gas and the inefficient and insufficient production of electrical energy by Europe. For winter, major energy crises will be approaching, reflected in the S&P and the NASDAQ as well as the large global markets. From this humble channel we recommend mainly Europeans or, as in my case, Spaniards, to opt for self-sufficiency in renewable energies, solar or mini-wind self-consumption. As well as using good analysis to support the prosperous and future growth of certain sectors such as blockchain, energy, minerals or digital tools. In this logarithmic scale analysis of the BTC/USD pair in BITSMAP, where the trajectory of these fluctuations since their incorporation together with the blockchain in the market is found, we are going to analyze possible key trend changes previously as well as the high probability of having reached a theoretical absolute background. Mainly we understand on a macro or weekly scale in bitcoin certain bearish patterns of change in trend, we have two similarities in the funds generated in previous cycles and transferred to the current one. In addition, we understand the importance of a Wyckoff change pattern as well as its phases that will be explained in later analyses. We must pay attention to the minimum areas of the RSI around 25 points. The break of the moving average of 200 periods consolidating under it a brief temporary interval. And finally the gauge cluster pressure zones in the Phoenix Ascending indicated in red. All this warns us of wonderful long-term Bitcoin buy zones and for Holdeo, with a well-measured key strategy. Geopolitical uncertainty has yet to give traditional markets great fear scares due to the non-existent supply of cheap gas and the inefficient and insufficient production of electrical energy by Europe. For winter, major energy crises will be approaching, reflected in the S&P and the NASDAQ as well as the large global markets. From this humble channel we recommend mainly Europeans or, as in my case, Spaniards, to opt for self-sufficiency in renewable energies, solar or mini-wind self-consumption. As well as using good analysis to support the prosperous and future growth of certain sectors such as blockchain, energy, minerals or digital tools. A pleasure as always to share my knowledge through this small channel and I hope you enjoy a wonderful week. ----------------------------------------------- : En este análisis en escala logarítmica del par BTC/USD en BITSMAP, donde se halla el recorrido de dichas fluctuaciones desde su incorporación junto a la blockchain en el mercado, vamos a analizar posibles cambios tendenciales clave anteriormente así como la probabilidad alta de haber alcanzado un fondo absoluto teórico. Principalmente comprendemos a escala macro o semanal en bitcoin ciertos patrones bajistas de cambio de tendencia, tenemos dos similitudes en los fondos generados en los anteriores ciclos y trasladados al actual. Además comprendemos la importancia de un patrón de cambio Wyckoff así como sus fases que se explicarán en posteriores análisis. Debemos prestar atención a las zonas mínimas del RSI entorno a los 25 puntos. La rotura de la media móvil de 200 periodos consolidando bajo esta un breve intervalo temporal. Y finalmente las zonas de presión del conjunto de indicadores en el Phoenix Ascending indicadas en rojo. Todo esto nos advierte de zonas maravillosas de compra de Bitcoin a largo plazo y para Holdeo, con una estrategia clave bien medida. La incertidumbre geopolítica aún tiene que dar grandes sustos de miedo a los mercados tradicionales por el suministro inexistente de gas barato y la producción ineficiente e insuficiente de energía eléctrica por parte de Europa. Para invierno se acercarán crisis energéticas grandes reflejadas en el S&P y la NASDAQ asi como los grandes mercados globales. Desde este humilde canal les recomendamos principalmente a europeos o como en mi caso Españoles optar por la autosuficiencia de energías renovables, autoconsumo solar o miniéolicas. Así como utilizar buenos análisis para fundamentar el prospero y futuro crecimiento de ciertos sectores como blockchain, energías, minerales o herramientas digitales. Un placer como siempre compartir mi conocimiento por este pequeño canal y espero que disfrutéis de una maravillosa semana.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by AVNGL01