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Geopolitics

What Will A Geopolitical Compromise Means For Markets?Henry Clay was a US Senator from Kentucky, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, the US Secretary of State, and a Presidential candidate in the 1800s. His legacy and nickname were “The Great Compromiser” for his involvement with the Missouri Compromise, the Compromise Tariff of 1833, and the Compromise of 1850. As Henry Clay understood, any great compromise means that both sides at the negotiating table must come to an agreement that makes them uncomfortable or incomplete. The price of an asset is always the correct price A messy geopolitical landscape Option one- A Great Compromise- High Odds Option two- A prolonged conflict Option three- The unthinkable In 2022, the geopolitical temperature has risen to the highest level since WW II. On February 4, Chinese President Xi and Russian President Putin met at the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics. The leaders signed a $117 billion trade agreement, but the watershed event was the “no-limits” cooperation understanding. Twenty days later, after the end of the Olympics, Russia invaded Ukraine, launching the first major war on European soil in over three-quarters of a century. Many analysts believe the Russian invasion sets the stage for Chinese reunification with Taiwan. Markets reflect the economic and geopolitical landscapes. Volatility in markets across all asset classes has increased, and uncertainty is the market’s worst enemy. The war, sanctions, retaliation, and a Chinese-Russian alliance threatens the status quo over the previous decades. The price of an asset is always the correct price As we learned in early 2020 in nearly all asset classes, bear markets can take prices to levels that defy logic and rational and logical analysis. The same holds on the upside as price spikes can reach unthinkable heights. The moves to the upside or downside compel many market participants to sell what they believe are tops or buy when they think the market cannot go any lower. Picking tops or bottoms is more about ego than making money, as the effort contradicts to prevailing trends. Picking a top or a bottom is a statement that the current price is too high or too low, which is always a mistake. Market participants can be wrong, but markets are never wrong. The price of any asset is always the right price because it is the level where buyers and sellers agree on a value in a transparent marketplace. Declaring a market top or bottom is a contrarian statement as it goes against the prevailing trend. A messy geopolitical landscape Two years ago, the world faced a common enemy as COVID-19 ignored borders, race, religion, political ideology, and all of the other factors that separate countries and people. In February and March 2022, the world faces new and daunting challenges: The Chinese and Russian leaders shook hands on a “no-limits” alliance. Russia invaded Ukraine, starting the first major war in Europe since World War II. Ukraine continues to put up fierce resistance. The US, NATO allies in Europe and allies worldwide slapped sanctions on Russia. Russia retaliated with export bans and other measures. North Korea test-fired ICBM missiles. Iran fired missiles near the US embassy in Iraq. Russian missiles came within miles of the Polish border. An attack on Poland triggers article five of NATO’s charter- An attack on one member is an attack on all. China and Russia stand on opposite sides of the conflict from the US and Europe. China plans to reunify with Taiwan against their will. On the US domestic scene, the US remains divided along political lines with mid-term elections in November. The central bank liquidity and government stimulus that stabilized the economy during the pandemic ignited an inflationary fuse before the geopolitical landscape deteriorated. The war in Ukraine only exacerbates price increases as Russia is a leading world producer of raw materials. Europe’s breadbasket in Ukraine and Russia is now a mine and battlefield at the start of the 2022 crop year. Russia and Ukraine typically supply one-third of the world’s wheat and other crops. They are also leading fertilizer exporters, causing problems in other worldwide growing regions. In 2022, the war will lead to rising prices, falling supplies, and the potential for famine and civil uprisings. Historically, food shortages have caused many revolutions. The 2010 Arab Spring that began as food riots in Tunisia and Egypt caused the sweeping political change in North Africa and the Middle East. Meanwhile, the Biden administration pledged to address climate change by supporting alternative and renewable fuels and inhibiting the production and consumption of fossil fuels. US production declined in 2021. After decades of working to achieve energy independence from the Middle East, US policy handed the pricing power to the international oil cartel. Since 2016, Russia has had an increasing role in OPEC’s production policy. In 2022, the cartel does not move unless Moscow agrees to cooperate. Oil prices were already rising when Russia invaded Ukraine, and they moved over $100 per barrel after the attack. Meanwhile, other fossil fuels have moved higher. Coal traded to a new all-time peak. US natural gas rose to a multi-year high, and European and Asia gas prices rose to record levels. Rising energy prices fueled inflation, and the war has poured fuel on an already burning inflationary fire. The war in Ukraine is less than one month old, and the human toll is rising. Tensions are at the highest level in decades. Markets are nervous, and the developments on the geopolitical over the coming days and weeks will dictate the direction of markets across all asset classes. I see three potential outcomes. Option one- A Great Compromise- High Odds In the current standoff, neither side wants to give an inch. The Russian leader faces disgrace or worse if he loses to an inferior military but impassioned Ukrainian population, many of who would choose death over capitulation. The US and Europe do not want to appease Russia like the UK’s Nevil Chamberlain appeased Hitler in the 1930s. China may support Russia, but the world’s second-leading economy has close economic ties with the US and Europe. A Henry Clay-inspired great compromiser could emerge and come up with a solution where Russia, China, the US, Europe, and the rest of the world walk away from the negotiating table unhappy but with a workable solution. I believe, and it is more than a bit of wishful thinking, that this is the high odds result of the current geopolitical mess, and the result will go down in history as the great compromise of 2022. A great compromise would likely lead to a significant stock market rally and a commodity correction. Option two- A prolonged conflict A prolonged conflict where Russians fight a long and bloody war against Ukrainian forces will devastate the world economy and peace. Russia may capture territory, but it is clear President Putin will never capture the souls of the Ukrainian masses. The Russian brutality over the past weeks will never be forgotten. President Putin did not count on the passionate resistance Russian troops encountered across Ukraine. The longer the battle and the more brutal the weapons, the greater the price for Russians controlling the territory over the coming years. Millions of refugees have left the country, but that leaves over 40 million Ukrainians; most now consider Russians their mortal enemy. A long battle will weaken the Russian military and the Russian leader abroad. A prolonged conflict will cause sanctions to collapse Russia’s economy, causing domestic problems for President Putin and his government. Moreover, skirmishes are likely to break out worldwide. In the early days of the war in Ukraine, North Korea and Iran flexed their military muscles. With Europe and the US focused on Ukraine, China could use the opportunity to seize Taiwan. A prolonged conflict would weigh on US stocks and likely lift commodity prices to higher highs. Option three- The unthinkable The final option is the nuclear one, which is low odds, but a highly frightening scenario. If Russian aggression spreads across the Ukraine border into Poland or any NATO member country, it will trigger Article five that states an attack on one is an attack on all. The US and Russia have the most nuclear weapons, which increases the potential of MAD or mutually assured destruction. In this scenario, it does not matter how markets react as the world would face a disastrous situation. I believe that a great compromise is on the horizon, which would cause markets to stabilize. However, the extent of the compromise is critical as it must address the current situation in Ukraine and Taiwan and threats from North Korea and Iran. Anything short of a comprehensive understanding between the world’s powers will cause years of rising tension and threats to the nearly eight billion people that inhabit our planet. Where is Henry Clay when the world needs him? Expect the volatility in markets to continue. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
SP:SPX
by Andy_Hecht
2
GBPJPY Bearish Coming UP!Hey Traders! We can see GBPJPY in a Bearish Momentum on the 4 Hours & On the Daily Time Frames. We are 90% most likely to rise up to the Order Block shaded areas, where the resistance zones are! Plus we all know about Geopolitical news! As far as we can all see, the situation between Russia & Ukraine is not getting better! Plus We know GBPUSD is headed to create a Lower Low! (Mentioned in another Idea) 2 possible outcomes are: 1. We follow the direction of the Yellow Line 2. We follow the direction of the Purple Line, We are most likely to follow up this direction unless the market decides to grab further liquidity and rise up to the stronger resistance before further downside momentum! Notes: Do not trade when the market first opens on Monday due to high Spreads + No movements. It's better to wait for around 4 Hours then you can trade! I am personally not trading just yet, i am an 18 years old university student who is trying his best to help people make money in hope to get some donations in return Thank you Good luck on your trading!
Short
by Nanoplex
$GLOP - LNG BREAKOUTGreat LNG play here. Not everywhere has pipelines. New England for example. Everything has to be transport by ship and then by ground here. GasLog Partners LP is a limited partnership company. The Company focuses on owning, operating and acquiring liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers under multi-year charters. The Company's fleet consists of 14 LNG carriers with an average carrying capacity of approximately 157,000 cubic meters (cbm), each of which has a multi-year time charter. The Company's fleet includes GasLog Seattle, GasLog Shanghai, GasLog Santiago, GasLog Sydney, Methane Rita Andrea, Methane Jane Elizabeth, Methane Alison Victoria, Methane Shirley Elisabeth and Methane Heather Sally. The GasLog Seattle is a tri-fuel diesel electric LNG carrier. Each of the GasLog Seattle, GasLog Shanghai, GasLog Santiago and GasLog Sydney vessels has a cargo capacity of approximately 155,000 cbm. Each of the Methane Rita Andrea, Methane Heather Sally, Methane Shirley Elisabeth, Methane Alison Victoria and Methane Jane Elizabeth vessels has a cargo capacity of approximately 145,000 cbm. They do carry some Russian gas- but it does not look like all NATO countries will agree to ban oil. Might just be the United States. This carrier operates internationally.
GLong
by jaykenneyTRT
Oil at 2011 Highs - What to look forThis isn't strictly a technical analysis. I'd like to gage the market sentiment and geo political tensions before I commit to a trade. If I see price break support but I'm seeing bullish headlines, I won't take a oil short. I'm waiting for a bearish catalyst and a break of the support I pointed out. Below are some bullish and bearish headlines I'll be looking out for. Bearish Oil Headlines Examples: Cease Fire in Ukraine Russians Withdrawal Iran Nuclear Deal reached Refusal to sanction Russian Oil More reserves released Bullish Oil Headlines Examples: Military action involving NATO countries No fly zone implemented over Ukraine More nuclear weapon rhetoric Sanctions on Russian oil exports. NATO countries supplying weapons/equipment to Ukraine. Iran nuclear deal negotiations fall apart
TVC:USOILShort
by natron
4
INDA - Indian Sanctions?Looks like the US is going to be hitting another Russian "ally"- India. Easy short here if you missed out on the Ukraine/Russia directly related geopolitical play. Biden weighing sanctions on India over Russian military stockpiles "The Biden administration is weighing whether to impose sanctions against India over its stockpile of and reliance on Russian military equipment as part of the wide-ranging consequences the West is seeking to impose on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine. Donald Lu, the assistant secretary of state for South Asian affairs, on Thursday told lawmakers in a hearing that the administration is weighing how threatening India's historically close military relationship with Russia is to U.S. security. “It’s a question we’re looking at very closely, as the administration is looking at the broader question over whether to apply sanctions under CAATSA or to waive those sanctions,” Lu said." The Countering American Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), passed in 2017 in the wake of the Kremlin’s interference in U.S. elections, includes the authority to sanction transactions with Russian defense or intelligence sectors. The law includes waiver authority for the president that was used for Turkey, an ally in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, until December 2020 when the Trump administration imposed sanctions under CAATSA for Ankara’s purchase of the Russian S400 missile defense system. In 2016, India was named a “Major Defense Partner” with the U.S., a unique designation that serves to elevate defense trade and technology. Defense contracts between the U.S. and India are said to amount to $20 billion since 2008. India is also a member of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue with the U.S., India, Japan and Australia, a grouping that focuses on countering China’s ambitions in the Indo-Pacific. President Biden held a video call with Quad leaders on Thursday, according to the White House, “to discuss the war against Ukraine and its implications for the Indo-Pacific.” Lu told lawmakers that the administration is “in the process of trying to understand whether defense technology that we are sharing with India today, can be adequately safeguarded given India’s historical relationship with Russia and its defense sales.” “It is critical that with any partner, that the United States is able to assure itself that any defense technology we share is sufficiently protected,” he said."
CBOE:INDAShort
by jaykenneyTRT
1
How Bitcoin Could Go to $3 million This Year (Elliott Wave)Bitcoin and many cryptocurrencies look like they are completing a contracting triangle with reverse alternation which began in 2018. On Bitcoin it looks like this could be the end of F-wave, right before we get the final blow-off wave-G. This wave could be as big as Wave-C from 2013, which is also equivalent to 161.8% of wave-d that began in 2020 and ended last year. The time target of waves D+E being equivalent in time to wave-F (big red boxes) means that we are at a major long-term inflection point this month. This could likely be linked to Biden's executive order related to "national security" and cryptocurrency, as well as a potential invasion of Ukraine by Russia. The EO could promote US cryptocurrency innovation and to compete with Russia and China and help him win votes for mid-terms while sanctioning Russian and Chinese central bank digital currencies which will be presented as an alternative to SWIFT when Russia is removed from SWIFT for invading Ukraine. If China invades Taiwan after the Olympics and is removed from SWIFT, then we could see China finalize their CBDC which has already been in public beta stage for the last year, and present it as an alternative to SWIFT and Russian CBDC's These factors as well as spiraling inflation could lead to speculative mania which sends Bitcoin to $3 million before seeing a massive crash that will take many years to fully recover from.
BNC:BLXLong
by Intuit
14
$SPY not looking good. Hello Traders, I hope you all are doing well. Notice the Head & Shoulder pattern on the chart. Good for Shorts though. If this H&S plays out we could see a significant drop, up to 6-10% from current levels. However, if there is some throwback on Monday, we could see a much weaker pullback. As I mention in the chart: If 431.25-431.75 support holds,we could see some throwback. Thus, weakening the pattern. Either way, it doesn't look good. Everyone's saying "Putin's got Puts" on the market, well maybe so; I mentioned in my previous post that geopolitics hadn't yet been factored in, well now they are starting to. I would like to note, although geopolitics can affect the markets... In what we are seeing currently, the largest disruption would only be from 2 things: uncertainty (markets don't like) and potential disruption in crude oil distribution to our allies, which could be a good thing if you're bullish on gas/oil prices (bad for inflation). Now is a great time to remember to practice good risk management. It'd be reckless to go all in on either side of the bull/bear coin, so as always.. know your levels, entry, exit, and stick to your strategy and rules . Cheers, Mike (UPRIGHT TRADING)
AMEX:SPY
by UPRIGHTTrading
Hydrocarbons Benefit From Rising Geopolitical RiskCrude oil came close to a triple-digit price last week for the first time since 2014. Natural gas prices have soared in Europe and Asia, and US prices rose to the highest level since 2008 when the February NYMEX futures contract spiked to over $7.30 per MMBtu in late January. The chicken and egg economic dilemma may be, which came first, inflation or rising energy prices? Energy prices continue to trend higher Russian incursions into Ukraine could cause price spikes US energy policy inhibits new production Rising energy prices are a root cause of inflationary pressures Expect lots of volatility- Watch crude oil at the end of March The tidal wave of central bank liquidity and tsunami of government stimulus that followed the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic ignited an inflationary fuse. As prices began to rise, the shift in US energy policy to address climate change poured gasoline on the inflationary fire. In January, the consumer price index rose to 7.5%, and core CPI, excluding food and energy, was 6.0% higher, the highest level in over four decades. While the core number omits energy prices, energy is an input cost for goods and services measured in core CPI. The producer price index rose by 9.7% in January. The bottom line is that if rising energy prices did not ignite inflation, it is fanning the flames. Meanwhile, based on a 7.5% inflation rate, the US Fed would need to increase the short-term Fed Funds rate by twenty-five basis points thirty times for real rates to be at zero percent. While the Fed may choose to increase the short-term rate by 50 basis points at the March FOMC meeting, the rise would be nowhere near the level that would push real interest rates out of negative territory. While inflation pushes all prices higher, energy markets face two other issues that could prove explosive. OPEC and Russia now control crude oil pricing, and Russia’s expansionary actions threaten to make petroleum a political and economic tool. Energy prices continue to trend higher Last week, crude oil prices rose to new multi-year highs. The monthly chart shows nearby NYMEX crude oil futures rose to $95.82 per barrel before pulling back to the $91.50 level at the end of last week. Crude oil continues to trend higher towards a triple-digit price. The current technical target stands at the June 2014 $107.73 per barrel high. Nearby Brent futures on the Intercontinental Exchange, the pricing benchmark for two-thirds of the world’s petroleum production and consumption, reached $96.78 per barrel last week. Brent’s technical target stands at the June 2014 $115.71 high. In February 2021, NYMEX and Brent crude futures traded to respective highs of $63.81 and $67.70 per barrel. At the $4.45 per MMBtu level on February 18, nearby NYMEX natural gas futures were well above the February 2021 $3.316 peak. Meanwhile, thermal coal for delivery in Rotterdam at $162.35 was over double the February 2021 $68.65 per ton high. The bottom line is fossil fuel prices have exploded, and the trends remain higher in early 2022. Russian incursions into Ukraine could cause price spikes The conflict between Russia and the US and its NATO partners is that the Russians consider Ukraine Western Russia, while the US and Europe believe the country is part of a free Eastern Europe. Russia has amassed over 150,000 troops along the Russian-Ukrainian border, and the US administration warns that an attack and incursion is “imminent.” While negotiations and discussions continued at the end of last week, President Putin is not backing down. The US and Europe have threatened severe sanctions, but Russia and China recently agreed on mutual support, making sanctions toothless. Since 2016, Russia has become an influential nonmember of the international oil cartel. OPEC is not OPEC+ with the plus being the cooperation with Moscow. President Putin’s clever inroads into the cartel increased Russia’s sphere of influence in the Middle East together with alliances with the Syrian and Iranian governments. OPEC does not make a move without Russian agreement these days, and a conflict that leads to sanctions could cause oil embargos aside from the logistical challenges created by war. Fighting in Ukraine could cause crude oil’s price to spike higher. Crude oil futures tend to take the stairs higher and an elevator lower. However, the current geopolitical environment increases the odds of a sudden rally. The oil market has not experienced an event-driven price explosion since the evening in August 1990 when Saddam Hussein marched into Kuwait and nearby futures doubled in a matter of hours. US energy policy inhibits new production In early 2021, US energy policy experienced an overnight transformation. On his first day in office, President Biden canceled the Keystone XL pipeline that transported petroleum from the oil sands in Alberta, Canada, to Steele City, Nebraska, and beyond to the NYMEX delivery point in Cushing, Oklahoma. In May 2021, the administration banned oil and gas drilling and fracking on federal lands in Alaska. Increasing regulations that address climate change favors alternative and renewable energy sources and inhibits fossil fuel production and consumption. Aside from handing pricing power back to OPEC+, the administration’s policy shift created entry barriers for new companies in the traditional energy markets. Addressing climate change is a multi-decade initiative as the US and world continue to depend on fossil fuels for power. However, the administration appears to have put the policy horse before the cart as hydrocarbon output is not keeping pace with demand. According to the US Energy Information Administration, daily production at 11.6 million barrels per day is 11.5% below the March 2020 high. Moreover, oil and oil product stockpiles remain below the five-year average. Crude oil inventories were down 11%, gasoline was 3% lower, and distillate stocks were 19% below the average level over the past five years. While the US policies weigh on output, the demand is booming. Rising energy prices are a root cause of inflationary pressures After decades of striving for energy independence from the Middle East, the US energy policy handed the pricing power back to the cartel in 2021. As oil prices rose, the administration asked OPEC+ to increase output twice in 2021, but the cartel refused. In November 2021, the President released fifty million barrels from the US strategic petroleum reserve. The release amounted to three days of consumption, and the oil price continued to rally after reaching a higher low in early December. While the pandemic-inspired monetary and fiscal policies and supply chain bottlenecks created inflationary pressures, the US energy policy has exacerbated the economic condition leading to an increasing cost of all goods and services. OPEC+ suffered as US shale production increased over the past years. In 2022, it is payback time for the cartel as they would rather sell one barrel at $100 than two at $50. Meanwhile, in his standoff with the US and Europe, crude oil availability and prices are a negotiating tool and potential economic weapon for the Russian President. Expect lots of volatility- Watch crude oil at the end of March The higher the crude oil price rises, the greater the odds of a correction. The last downdraft in the crude oil futures market began in late October when the nearby NYMEX futures contract fell from $85.41 to $62.43 or 26.9% in six weeks. The $62.43 level was a marginally higher low than the August 2021 $61.74 bottom, keeping the trend of higher lows and higher highs intact. At the end of 2021, crude oil posted its seventh consecutive quarterly gain. A quarterly chart illustrates a close above the December 31, 2021, $75.45 per barrel on the nearby NYMEX crude oil futures contract will mark the eighth consecutive quarterly gain. As of the end of last week, the price was substantially above that level. Bull markets rarely move in straight lines, and the trajectory of crude oil over the past weeks has increased the odds of a correction and elevator ride lower. However, the geopolitical landscape, US energy policy, OPEC+’s desire for payback, and rising inflation continue to create an almost perfect bullish storm for the energy commodity that powers the world. While many market participants are watching the $100 level, the potential for a challenge of the 2008 all-time high at over $147 per barrel in WTI and Brent futures could be on the horizon in the current environment. Crude oil’s rise may result from monetary and fiscal policies and a political agenda to address climate change, but it has become a driving inflationary force. A more effective tool to stomp on inflation may be increasing US fossil fuel output to push prices lower instead of relying on monetary policy via interest rate hikes. --- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Andy_Hecht
2
Covid in 2020, Inflation in 2021, Geopolitics in 2022The Chinese New Year just passed, and we are now in the year of the Tiger. “May you live in interesting times” is often considered the translation of a traditional Chinese curse. Markets reflect the economic and political landscapes In 2021 rising inflation was at the center of the stage Inflation will continue to impact markets in 2022 and beyond Geopolitical concerns are rising- China and Russia become allies at the Winter Olympics Iran and North Korea pose threats- Significant moves could come from geopolitical events over the coming months In early 2022, the world continues to suffer from COVID-19 variants and the fallout from economic and political policies that addressed the global pandemic. Markets are nervous with choppy price action in markets across all asset classes. The stock market has been threatening to correct to the downside, and bonds have declined on the back of the prospects of rising interest rates. Cryptocurrency volatility continues to be at head-spinning levels. Commodities remain in mostly bullish trends, but bull markets rarely move in straight lines. As we learned in early 2020, the most significant market volatility comes from unexpected events. In early 2022, the world is anything but a stable place as tensions are mounting and the US’s role as the leader of the “free world” is challenged. In 2020, the pandemic caused wild markets price swings across all asset classes. The central bank and government tools addressing COVID-19’s economic fallout dominate markets in 2021. In 2022, the geopolitical landscape appears to be the factor that could cause lots of uncertainty and price variance. Markets reflect the economic and political landscapes We follow trends as they reflect the crowd’s wisdom. The old sayings “buy the rumor and sell the fact,” or “sell the rumor and buy the fact,” refer to the market’s habit of fading news leading those who follow the news to lose. Over time, macro and microeconomics and the geopolitical landscape determine the path of least resistance of prices. However, market volatility can cause dramatic short-term moves that defy rational, logical, and reasonable fundamental analysis. In early 2022, markets continue to emerge from the global pandemic. The impact of monetary and fiscal policy tools that stabilized economic conditions has significantly impacted markets that will long outlive the pandemic. Moreover, geopolitical dynamics are shifting, increasing the threat of hostilities across the globe. The pandemic caused market volatility in 2020 and 2021, but in 2022, the price variance could increase as the economic and political landscapes are creating more than a bit of uncertainty, and markets hate uncertainty. In 2021 rising inflation was at the center of the stage In 2021, inflationary pressures rose to the highest level in four decades. The consumer price index rose by 7%, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 5.5%. The producer price index increased by nearly 10%. US GDP also moved appreciably higher. The Fed did absolutely nothing as inflation rose, blaming the economic condition on “transitory” pandemic-inspired supply chain bottlenecks. However, a four-decade high caused the central bank to realize that inflation was more structural than temporary. At the November and December FOMC meetings, the rhetoric became more hawkish, but while the Fed talked a good game, the only change came as they began tapering quantitative easing. Tapering was not tightening as the central bank continued to purchase debt securities. In early 2022, the hawkish squawking increased in volume at the January meeting, but QE will not end until early March, setting the stage for liftoff from a zero percent short-term Fed Funds rate. In 2021, asset prices increased with double-digit percentage gains in the leading stock market indices, commodities, real estate, cryptocurrencies, and other assets. Inflation erodes money’s purchasing power, so the increases in asset prices were a mirage as they reflected the decline of fiat currency values. About halfway through 2021, the US government bond market began screaming that the Fed was behind the inflationary curve. As the chart highlights, the US 30-Year Treasury bond futures fell from the July 2021 167-04 high to 159-31 at the end of December 2021. In early 2022, the long bond’s decent continues with the bonds trading to a low of 150-26 last week, the lowest level since May 2019. The move below technical support at the July 2019 152-28 low could be a gateway to a test of the 2018 136-16 bottom, meaning inflation will continue to push interest rates higher. Inflation will continue to impact markets in 2022 and beyond Last week, we found out that CPI rose by 7.5% in January 2022 with the core reading up 6% as inflation continues to rise. Crude oil is trending towards $100 per barrel, and other prices continue to appreciate. Bull markets in commodities reflect inflationary pressures, but they rarely move in straight lines. Raw material markets tend to be far more volatile than stocks or bonds, but they are inflationary barometers. All signs point to a continuation of higher lows and higher highs in the commodities asset class. At the end of last week, gold was above the $1800 pivot point and threatening to break out to the upside. Gold is the ultimate inflation barometer, and the price has been making lower highs and higher lows since March 2021. Like a tightly coiled spring, the wedge pattern in the gold market suggests that a substantial move is on the horizon. Since the turn of this century, every price correction in the gold market has been a buying opportunity. The odds continue to favor the upside when gold abandons the $1800 pivot price. Inflation is a challenging beast as it creates a vicious cycle that pushes prices higher and fiat currencies lower. In early 2022, the supply chain, labor shortages, and rising input costs continue to pour fuel on the inflationary fire. The shift in US energy policy handed crude oil’s pricing power back to the international oil cartel and Russia. Higher oil prices increase input and transportation costs. Addressing climate change by supporting alternative and renewable energy sources is a multi-decade program. The current US administration is not prepared to increase oil and gas production to lower traditional energy prices. Energy is a root cause of inflation, and the current course of monetary policy tightening is not likely to reduce inflation if oil prices continue to rise in 2022. With core CPI at the 6% level, the Fed would need to increase the Fed Funds rate by twenty-five basis points twenty-three times to push real short-term interest rates into positive territory. The latest FOMC forecasts of a 0.90% Fed Funds rate in 2022 and 1.60% in 2023 means real rates will remain negative, fueling inflation over the coming months and years. Meanwhile, the Fed is in an unenviable position as higher rates will cause the cost of funding the $30 trillion debt to soar. Each twenty-five basis point increase costs $75 billion in debt servicing costs each year. At a 5.5% Fed Funds Rate the price tag is a staggering $1.65 trillion per year. The bottom line is that the US central bank and government are unwilling to swallow the bitter pill necessary to address inflation, which will continue to rise. Just as in all markets, the trend is higher, and it is always your best friend, even when it is devastating for the economy. Geopolitical concerns are rising- China and Russia become allies at the Winter Olympics The US faces more problems on the economic landscape. We may remember the 2022 Beijing Olympics as a watershed event, not for athletics, but a meeting between the Chinese and Russian leaders. President Xi pledged support to President Putin over Ukraine. With over 100,000 Russian troops at Ukraine’s border, it may only be a matter of time before an incursion. The US and Western Europe consider Ukraine part of a free Eastern Europe, and Russia believes the country is eastern Russia. A Chinese and Russian alliance complicates NATOs defense of Ukraine’s sovereignty. Meanwhile, China is committed to reunification with Democratic Taiwan. Presidents Xi and Putin also agreed that the US should not interfere with Chinese plans to bring Taiwan under its umbrella. An alliance between China and Russia over Ukraine and Taiwan has far-reaching geopolitical consequences as it could render sanctions impotent. Russia agreed to supply oil and gas to China via its pipeline system, which fills Russia’s pockets with funds and fuels China’s economy and growth. US allies in Europe and worldwide depend on Russia and China for commodity flows and commerce. The western alliance that supports sovereignty for Ukraine and Taiwan weakens as Chinese and Russian ties strengthen. Iran and North Korea pose threats- Significant moves could come from geopolitical events over the coming months The rise of China and Russia comes at the expense of the United States, the current leader of the free world. Moreover, it encourages US enemies worldwide. Iran continues to enrich uranium as the Biden administration attempts to negotiate a nuclear non-proliferation agreement. The US has an ulterior motive as higher oil prices make increased Iranian production attractive in the current environment. Higher oil prices strengthen Iran’s negotiating position in dealing with the US and Europe. Over the past weeks, North Korea has been test-firing rockets, moving forward with its nuclear weapons program. The hermit nation is now a nuclear power with weapons of mass destruction that could reach the US. Chinese and Russian cooperation only enhances North Korea’s position as an emerging nuclear power. The bottom line is that markets reflect the economic and geopolitical landscape. Uncertainty in early 2022 is at the highest level since the Cold War. As Russia increases its global sphere of influence, it is now the most powerful OPEC+ nonmember, making production decisions alongside Saudi Arabia. Moreover, Russian allies in Cuba and Venezuela are close to US territory, posing a substantial threat to the US mainland if a war in Europe is on the horizon. Aside from conventional military hostilities, technology has created new weapons that could draw the entire world into conflicts. COVID-19 dominated markets in 2020, and rising inflation was at the center of the stage in 2021. In 2022, the geopolitical landscape has become a minefield of potential problems likely to impact markets across all asset classes. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
CBOT:ZB1!
by Andy_Hecht
Russia/Ukraine Crisis effect on Natural GasThe Russia and Ukraine crisis will cause a strain on Natural Gas prices. This analysis will explain its effects. Global natural gas consumption rebounded by around 4.6% in 2021. This strong growth demand was led by an economic recovery following the 2020s lockdowns and a succession of extreme weather events. Supply could not keep up. Along with unexpected outages, this led to a tight market and steep price increases. The year closed with record high spot prices in Europe and Asia, as natural gas supplies remained very tight. Beginning with the Russia/Ukraine crisis from the end of January till today natural gas spot prices have seen a rapid rise. By almost 35%, from around 3.631 to 4.902. This has been solely due to a fear of an invasion into Ukraine. The reason is simple, Europe heavily relies on Russia for natural gas. Around 40%. A third of the gas comes from pipelines underneath Ukraine, Germany is trying to circumvent this issue with Nord Pipeline 2. But this is still in the making and the US have said that they would stop this pipeline if there were any invasion into Ukraine. So, an invasion into Ukraine will be a good buying opportunity for Natural Gas. However, there's a problem. If the markets, see a problem looming in the commodities sector they almost always price in the problem from the get-go. So, I suspect many large banks, traders are ready for an invasion and gas producers have already got a supply of gas that can be shipped, if need be, to circumvent the gas supply shock that would occur if Russia invaded Ukraine. Also, A senior Biden administration official said last Tuesday that the US has held talks with major gas producers in North Africa, the Middle East and Asia, as well as domestically about their willingness to “temporarily surge” their gas output to meet any supply shortages. This would lead to a medium-term fulfilment of gas prices and the increase may not be as pronounced as one may imagine. I still believe there will be a large short-term spike in the prices, but this would not sustain for very long and eventually, the price will level out. Only if the supply shortages are met. If not, then the prices may continue to rise. So, if an invasion comes then a spike in natural gas and oil prices will probably occur. After that, I will wait and see how the supply shortage is managed and how that will affect prices. In 1991 the spot price of natural gas begins around 1.649, the highest price was around 16.470 near the end of 2005. But, for the largest period, it's been between 1.649 and 6.162. In the last decade, the spot price has only on three occasions reached that amount. The purple indicator second to the bottom is the RSI, it measures overbought and oversold situations. Since natural gas is a commodity, I’m not going to focus largely on these indicators apart from the CCI (commodity channel index). Which is designed for assets such as natural gas. The RSI has seen overbought levels which have been represented by the purple boxes on the chart. Most of these events have been geopolitical and not nearly related to technical stuff. So, the large increase in the RSI which would inevitably come in the event of an invasion should be mostly ignored. Only recognize that the increase is related to the event and when the RSI starts to cool off it could be a sign to sell. The blue indicator is the CCI. This indicator is used to signal overbought scenarios as well. Since it works by comparing the current price by the average price over some time. The times when the CCI has been overbought are presented by the blue circles on the graph. As with the RSI, I would use this indicator only to see a sell, not a buy. Since the indicator lags in time, the event and spike in price will come before it is shown on the indicator and could cause a delay in action which could result in a bad timing in position. The red lines represent all-time lows and highs. The orange lines are recent highs and lows based on the last decade. But the important lines are the black ones. These represent an area of resistance for the price going back to 2002. The price has stalled and found support and resistance in this region. So, if one wants to have a long-term position in natural gas, I will use this to measure the level of support of the resistance. These lines would not cause any issues in an event of an invasion since the price would probably spike through and ignore the resistance. But when the price cools down, you can expect it to find this region as a support level and that could signal a sell. The blue arrow is my prediction in the event of an invasion. The highest peak of the arrow is where I see some form of a bad scenario working out. But if the US and Europe make sure the gas supply is sufficient, I do expect a rise in the price but not to the arrowhead. Only between the top black line to the orange line. Which is the green rectangle. The growth of the green rectangle represents a rise of 40% which, is more than enough to make a decent profit.
NLong
by BlackbearTrader
2
SPX Looking to retest the 200.Hello Traders - After the last few trading sessions you're probably almost convinced that the sky is going to fall out, that geopolitics are an issue right this moment, and that we're headed for a crash. I'd like to let you in on a little secret... When everyone thinks there will be a crash, there isn't one. Now don't get me wrong, we did just have a solid pullback from ATH's, and while it wasn't a small pullback, we did complete an IHS pattern and hit it's target pretty accurately. Then after gapping down to recession territory, shortly before FOMC's meeting probably had some Bulls a little worried. Personally, I don't think Geopolitics is yet factored into any market movement. The pullback was more related to COVID resurgence causes uncertainty, and if there is one thing the market doesn't like.. It's that. Not only this, midterm election interest has been pulled forward and midterm years are almost always more volatile. Lastly, inflation worries. These are the big 3 currently affecting the market, could the Ukraine situation become an issue for the markets? Well possibly, but I can't imagine it having an affect anywhere close to the China Trade War, because that actually directly affected the markets (i.e. tariff and embargos between two extremely active traders). With more reliance on Clean energy the geopolitical posturing on the border of Ukraine will mean even less for the US and its allies. With all of that out of the way, back to a quick technical analysis. Looks like we will see another retest of the 200MA very soon. This should give us an idea of where we go from here. Cheers, Mike
SP:SPX
by UPRIGHTTrading
U.S. Dollar Index Bullish Divergence and US Economy Improvement here we can see DXY is showing a Bullish Divergence with MACD in Daily Time Frame as it is a regular divergence so it can be a sign of trend reversal and start of a rally to its previews higher points and resistances i have specified the Minimum retracement levels by Fibonacci retracement tool and the levels are combined with Price Action analysis. we can use this data to setup our positions in may forex instruments including EURUSD and GBPUSD etc... which can be interpreted as shorting them for swing and positional Trades i have also analyzed them so I will keep their links to the related ideas this analysis can help us to forecast many other Asset movements and US related economic factors please name few other uses of DXY in the Comments and let me know how can we relate this trend change with the current US Geopolitical issues and economic status??? and obviously the US election...
TVC:DXYLong
by BitonGroup
2