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Ger40

2024-11-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Neutral. Bullish read was perfect and good for 300+ points. Now the air gets thinner again. Above 19500 longs are probably not a good trade since the downside is sub 19100 and upside probably limited to 19700 max. If market holds above the 1h 20ema tomorrow, I’ll try longs but if now, we could see some profit taking again. comment : Hope you took the amazing longs today. Now it’s very tough to be a bull above 19500. We have big rejections from 19500 and 19600 on Wednesday and we have to assume that these prices continue to be resistance. If you want to buy this you would have to risk down to 19080 to make maybe 100 points. Not a good trade. I would rather try to scalp for 10-20 points than coming up with good trades from 19500. I will look for longs near the 30m or 1h 20ema, if they show to be support. No shorts until US starts the selling too. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18900 - 19700 bull case: Bulls want to retest 19650 and then also the ath at 19802. No reason to not get there because we have multiple measured move targets or patterns that lead there or higher. 20000 is still possible, if we get follow through buying tomorrow. If you are thinking “this can’t go higher, the german economy is a dumpster fire and all news are beyond bad blablabla” I got bad news for you. This has nothing to do with any logical reason to trade near the ath. Everyone who wanted to short this because of logical reasons already has and market is moving where the least resistance is. Call it a pain trade if you will. We have 2 years of negative GDP print and dax is going for 20000. Stop looking for reasons why markets are doing stuff. Senseless waste of time and energy. Invalidation is below 19000. bear case: Bears want to keep 19500-19650 resistance to prevent more bulls to join for 19800 or 20000. I would not look for shorts to be honest. US markets are unstoppable and you would try to short during a euphoric wave. I do think below 19400 more bulls would cover again and we can trade to 19100 again but I would only join them on strong momentum but I still favor the bulls to print 20000 rather than bears selling this down below 19200 again. Invalidation is above 19700. short term: Neutral. Leaning slightly bullish if we just continue higher and we have a clear support with the 30m or 1h 20ema. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. current swing trade: Took most off on 19500, leaving runner for 20000. trade of the day: I called the long and long it was.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
2024-11-06 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - 1 daily bar to almost engulf 2 months of price action. The rejection above 19600 was strong enough to expect that the highs are in but I am not convinced. I highly doubt dax will be flat or lower while wallstreet is doing an early Santa rally on coke. I am much more bullish and expect 19000 to hold. Decent 1h bear bar that closes below 19000 can convince me to turn bear. comment: Tough to ponder what to make of big up on US markets while dax sold off hard to get below 19100 again. I do think 19000 is huge support and bulls are favored but 6 consecutive daily bar closes below the ema is pretty bearish. Will continue to look for longs around 19100 until 19000 is clearly broken and we go down. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18900 - 19700 bull case: Bulls got above 19600 which was an amazingly fast up move but the sell off was even better. Bulls have still no reason not to buy this around 19100. It has been profitable for a month now and given price action on the other markets, I am having a very hard time to be bearish. Bulls need to get above 19300 for more bears to cover and then they can try to go 19500 or higher again. Most outrageous target of 20000 is still on the table. Invalidation is below 19000. bear case : Bears see the perfect head & shoulders pattern on the daily chart. Also the huge rejection above 19600 and the 6 consecutive closes below the daily ema. Bears have all the arguments on their side to try and break below 19000. Is the current market environment good for them? I don’t know. It’s not that often that major western indices converge that much but let’s see tomorrow. Measured move down brings us to 18300. Make no mistake, I absolutely, 100% expect that price to be hit again this year. This rally is nothing but coke fueled euphoria based on hopes and dreams the next US government will wave a magic wand and fulfill wallstreet’s dreams. Invalidation is above 19700. short term: Bullish as long as 19000 holds. I think we can print 20000 before this corrects big time. Below 19000 I am wrong. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19 : 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. current swing trade: If 19000 holds tomorrow, will do a swing long and hope for a homerun to 20000. trade of the day: Wild swings in both directions. Globex was obviously as bullish as it gets but changing to full bear mode on EU open and hold to 19100 was tough.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024Long
by priceactiontds
2024-11-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Who wants to be long into election day? That question pondered my mind couple of times today but here we are. Surprising bull strength. I said it was too soon for the bigger second bear leg down but today was also too strong for bulls at this point. No bigger opinion on today’s price action. Most markets traded back up to the 50% retracement and near their daily 20ema and that spot is as neutral as it gets. Still leaning more bearish than bullish and I would not be surprised if the Globex session sell this hard. dax futures comment: Clear trading range 19100 - 19400. I expect bears to come around soon and reverse it down. If we print above 19450, I am most likely wrong about this. Friday’s high was not broken and we are right under the 20 ema and 50% retracement. Many reasons for bear to short again. Above 19450 bears will probably give up and we test 19600 or higher. Market is neutral around 19250. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18900 - 19400 bull case: My line in the sand for bulls continues to be 19400-19450. If they break above that, bears will likely give up. Other than that I don’t have many arguments for them. We are below the 50% and daily ema, if bears come around here, bulls just have to cover because it could easily go back down to 19250 or lower. Invalidation is below 19000. bear case: Bears need to keep this below 19400. If they can manage, next target is test of the open price 19260 and then we could get a big second leg down. We have a decent two legged pullback now on the 4h chart and today’s high could fit a proper channel. Invalidation is above 19400. short term: Bearish if we stay below 19420ish (max 19450). I think the odds of a reverse are much better than more upside. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying the EU opening reversal was an amazing trade. Perfect double bottom with Monday’s low.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024Short
by priceactiontds
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FOREXCOM:GER40Short
by Thief_Trader
2024-11-04 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Most went sideways today and we got some marginally lower lows. That was decent enough to disappoint bulls who were used to BTFD for a long long time now. I do think some expansion of the current range is possible but I doubt we get a bigger breakout tomorrow due to US elections. Will the election effect the market big time? No idea but my guess is less than many expect. Can either side end the party for the 0.1% and make them sell their overvalued stonkz? Probably not but I am open to surprises. My guess is we will chop wildy back and forth, like today’s US open. Bears will likely get their second leg down, but it’s too soon. dax xetra comment: 50% pullback of the current range from Thursday’s low to Friday’s high is around 19260 and we closed 19260. Market is in balance at that price and I expect more sideways before we get another impulse down. To guess if we hit 19000 before 19350, is impossible and you should not trade based on those questions. Middle of the range is the worst place for trades, so wait. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18900 - 19400 bull case: My line in the sand for bulls continues to be 19400 and until they break that price, bears are in full control. For tomorrow I expect more buyers around 19000-19100 and I will continue to look for longs in that area, until it’s clearly broken. Invalidation is below 19000. bear case: Bears prevented bulls from printing 19400, which showed strength and bulls finally gave up around 2 p.m. cet where we broke below 19300. The selling was much weaker than Friday’s rally and already had 3 legs down. Maybe bears can push this down to 19000-19090 but I don’t think the odds are good to take that trade. Shorts above 19300 can work. Most important for now is to not get trapped into bad trades like shorting below 19200 or buying above 19350. Invalidation is above 19400. short term : Neutral. Market needs to move more sideways before we get another impulse, which will probably be down for a second leg. Will look for shorts above 19300. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Shorting 19350 since it was bigger resistance and market tried 3 times to get above and failed.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
Heading into 50% Fibonacci resistance?GER40 is rising towards the resistance which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit. Entry: 19,326.61 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 19,557.03 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Take profit: 19,073.13 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
GShort
by VantageMarkets
#202444 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax xetra: Bearish. Bears finally got some follow through lower and got near 19000. Next they want to keep the pullback shallow and get a second leg down to weekly 20ema around 18800 which is also where the next bull trend line is on my chart. There we will see if it was low enough for bulls to buy or if we have to get even lower to 18000. Bulls need to get above 19400 and bears below 19000. Quote from last week: Market closed 200 points lower than last week but was mostly range bound. Bull trend line and the daily 20ema are still intact and we did not get the expected breakout. Market has absolutely no more room to inside the pattern. End of September market was at 19470 so we have a month of going nowhere behind us. Was it bulls scaling into longs for 20000 or bears scaling into shorts because the upside potential is probably very limited? Very likely both. Going into next week I can’t be anything but neutral until we see one side clearly giving up. The one thing that's clear on the weekly chart for the past 12 weeks is that bears only managed to print 1 bear in between bull bars. So 3 out of 13. That is really something and we should not expect it to end until it very clearly does. Don’t try to be the first. comment: Big week for the bears since they broke the bull rally and most recent trend line, which turned the market neutral at previous support. Now comes the most important price action for the coming weeks. If bears get their strong second leg down, we will see 18200 in November, if we go sideways from here, odds drop for the bears and market is probably ranging more at the highs. It would also keep the possibility alive to print 20000 this year. The timing of the selling was in between very good earnings and mediocre outlooks. If we continue down, this would probably mean funds want to secure profits in this year and the selling could accelerate. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18200 - 19700 bull case: Bulls did a decent job at keeping the market above 19000, which was important to disappoint eager bears from Thursday. If they now can trade above the daily 20ema and 19300, it would further weaken the bear case and we would likely continue inside the current trading range. 20000 is still the target for the bulls this year. Invalidation is below 19000. bear case: Bears showed some signs of life and we are now at the big decision spot 19000. Bears need to get better momentum going if they want to print below 18500. Above 19500 I can’t imagine many bears holding onto shorts because the risk of trading above 19700 are too great then. A measured move target down would lead to 18300 and that aligns with a 50% retracement and the September low. That is my preferred path forward over the next 1-2 weeks. Invalidation is above 19400. outlook last week: short term: Neutral. Clear levels to break for both sides. → Last Sunday we traded 19463 and now we are at 19254. Ok’ish outlook. short term: Bearish for a second leg down, as long as we stay below 19400. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. current swing trade : None chart update: Changed two legged correction into 3 legs down, target is the same for now.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024Short
by priceactiontds
DAX to attract sellers at market price?GER40 - Intraday 4 negative daily performances in succession. Short term bias has turned negative. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Yesterday's Marabuzo is located at 19161. Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile. 20 4hour EMA is at 19235. We look to Sell at 19215 (stop at 19315) Our profit targets will be 18965 and 18905 Resistance: 19100 / 19200 / 19300 Support: 19003 / 18900 / 18800 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:DE30EURShort
by OANDA
2024-10-31 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - October is behind us and markets closed at the monthly lows. Clear sell signal going into November, since this is an amazing bear breakout. Markets are now in search for a intermediate bottom to form a proper channel. Most markets are also at bigger support and we can expect some more sideways to up movement before we get another impulse. That does not mean we can’t print another huge down day on Friday and have the pullback next week. dax xetra comment: Monthly chart shows a rejection at the top of multiple patterns and odds favor more downside over the next 1-2 months to have something of a pullback in this bubble. Weekly 20ema is around 18800, so only 200 points lower, which is reasonable to hit over the next days but we can’t expect that ema to be broken too easily. My rough target for November is 18000-18500. Daily chart shows huge bear gap bars and market needs some sideways to up movement soon. current market cycle: trading range - bull trend is over. key levels: 18900 - 19400 bull case: Bulls running for the exits and want to take profits before they are gone. 19000 is a decent target for market to take a breather and move sideways to up. Targets for bulls are gap close to 19270, which is also the daily 20ema. 19400 is far but could happend. I can’t imagine anything above that for now. 18900 has to hold, otherwise we see a flush down to ~18340, which is the 50% pullback. Invalidation is below 19000. bear case: Bears are in full control of the market after 3 huge selling days. Volume is increasing and xetra has not touched the 1h 20ema since Tuesday. Bears can view this leg down as w1, which already had 3 nested legs down (1 per last 3 days). Some pullback and sideways movement is expected. If bears can keep this below 19300, that would show strength and w3 would accelerate down in that case, since bulls had no better relief. Next target is 18900 and below that is 18800 (weekly 20ema), below that is nothing until 18400. Invalidation is above 19300. short term: Bearish but more cautious and only selling pullbacks again. 18900/19000 should be bigger support. Expecting two more legs down in November, rough target is 18000. medium-long term: Will update this over the weekend. current swing trade: None trade of the day: ~19170 was rejected many times and bears had enough chances to get on the short train. 19000 was obvious support and one should have covered there.
XETR:DAXShort
by priceactiontds
2024-10-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Many bull trend lines are gone for good. Bears closed at the lows and they desperately need follow through tomorrow. If nq won’t keep the markets afloat tomorrow and drops below 20400, we will likely see a big sell off with 20200 or lower. Dax looks done, clear break of the trend line, swing shorts are juicy here. dax futures comment: Daily chart now looks really bad. Next support is around 19000-19100. If bears fail to generate follow through tomorrow, we could retest the bull trend line even up to 19600 again but as of now I heavily favor the bears to go deep red into the weekend. current market cycle: trading range more likely than start of a bear trend but we only know once we reach 19000 and see if it’s support or not key levels: 19000 - 19800 bull case: Bulls gave up today after the market failed to print a better close yesterday. Since they have been trying to go above 19800 for so long now, I do think many will wait for a deeper pull back to at least 19000 before buying again. They could try to retest the bull trend line up to 19600 but as of now, it’s a stretch. Got not much for the bulls here. Invalidation is below 19000. bear case: Bears now have the best setup in a long time. Clear trend line break and market has tested the highs more than enough. Bears next target is 19000 where we could expect bigger support. 19000 is the previous October low and an exact measured move from the current range down. I will watch futures open in an hour and will likely get on some swing shorts. Invalidation is above 19620. short term: Bearish for 19000 if we stay below 19620. My bullish targets are met with this lower high and trend line break. Expecting a deeper pull back before a year end rally. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. Right now there is no selling pressure. I am confident that we will hit 17000 in 2025 but timing is more important than price, so let’s not waste brain capital on being bearish for now. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Globex marked the high of the day and market just sold off. 19300 was expected to be bigger support and market showed a decent reaction where one should have covered shorts.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024Short
by priceactiontds
2024-10-29 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Mixed and still undecided. Not one broke out of their patterns today and I expected the breakout last Friday. Dax faked to the upside to sell off to the bull trend line again while nasdaq printed a strong bullish outside bar and is now near the top of the bull wedge. All patterns are still valid and the only constant is that bears are not able to generate follow through selling, so naturally market tries the opposite. dax futures comment : Daily chart says it all. Bulls not strong enough to close a day at the highs but bears even weaker and not able to print lower lows. 19600 is the middle of the range and mean reversion pays. I still lean more bullish than bearish for another run at the ath. current market cycle: late bull trend key levels: 19400 - 20000 bull case: Bulls broke above the minor bull channel but it was a trap and market sold off to near the bull trend line. As long as this line holds and market makes higher lows, I favor the bulls to retest the ath or go higher for 20000. The current trading range is fairly tight, so there is no deeper meaning to what the market is doing. No side has an advantage and we are waiting for the next impulse. Play the range until it clearly stops working. Invalidation is below 19490. bear case: Bears had a decent sell off today but market closed only 40 points lower. Bears need to start printing lower lows but most bears use the lows to cover and scalp out of positions. Invalidation is above 19750. short term: Bullish below 19600 for at least 19700. Stop is 19490 medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. Right now there is no selling pressure. I am confident that we will hit 17000 in 2025 but timing is more important than price, so let’s not waste brain capital on being bearish for now. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying before EU open was good if you were awake. The selling after the open surprised me big time and I absolutely did not expect bears to be able to get all the way down to below 19600. Good for you if you took it. Best trade was obviously selling 19700 and just holding. Was tough to take if you were long before, because the breakout look good enough.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024Long
by priceactiontds
#202443 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax xetra : 4h chart shows a triangle if you adjust the bull trend line from August. It will break out on Monday and I clearly favor the bears to break below and go for 19000. Above 19650 I am wrong and we could see the leg up to 20000. Bear confirmation is only below 19300. Until the breakout, you can either wait or play the tight range. Quote from last week: comment: Bullish was good but the rally is losing steam. We are in the final leg before we probably transition into a trading range before we go down. 20000 is the target for bulls and I expect them to get it one way or the other. Preferred path is a spike followed by huge profit taking. Nothing about the chart is good for bears and I would not even think about shorts, before we see some decent selling again. You never want to be early in a trade as a retail trader. comment: Market closed 200 points lower than last week but was mostly range bound. Bull trend line and the daily 20ema are still intact and we did not get the expected breakout. Market has absolutely no more room to inside the pattern. End of September market was at 19470 so we have a month of going nowhere behind us. Was it bulls scaling into longs for 20000 or bears scaling into shorts because the upside potential is probably very limited? Very likely both. Going into next week I can’t be anything but neutral until we see one side clearly giving up. The one thing that's clear on the weekly chart for the past 12 weeks is that bears only managed to print 1 bear in between bull bars. So 3 out of 13. That is really something and we should not expect it to end until it very clearly does. Don’t try to be the first. current market cycle: Late bull trend. Has likely ended already and we are now in a trading range. key levels: 19000 - 20000 bull case: We learned nothing last week, other that market is in balance at 19500. Bulls need to stay above 19320 to keep the trend alive and their target is 20000. How likely is follow through buying above 20000 and another bull break above for much higher prices? I can’t think of anything less likely tbh. That obviously does not mean it can not happen. I was wrong about the top a couple of times in the past 3 years. Invalidation is below 19300. bear case: If you look at this chart and go “I really want to short this right now”, dm me and let’s do a remote counselling session. You are so out of touch with the market, that there has to be deeper stuff going on inside you, causing that. Nothing about this is bearish and until we see actual selling pressure, we should not waste brain capacity on bearish thoughts. 19300 is the clear target for a daily close below. Once bears have that, we will likely test down to 19000 and there we have a big decision. Market can either find new buyers there in hopes of 20000 or most bulls are done for the year and let it go. Below 19000, nothing can save this until 18000. That is the lowest I can see this go this year and even that price is very unlikely. Invalidation is above 19400. outlook last week: short term: Bullish for 20000. Can see a pullback first or not. We are in the middle of the channel, which is always a bad spot. Trade momentum or long a decent pullback. → Last Sunday we traded 19779 and now we are at 19463. Wrong outlook. Thesis still stands. If we keep above 19300, market wants 20000. short term: Neutral. Clear levels to break for both sides. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. Right now there is no selling pressure. I am confident that we will hit 17000 in 2025 but timing is more important than price, so let’s not waste brain capital on being bearish for now. current swing trade: None chart update: Adjusted the potential two legged correction
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
2024-10-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Bulls bought the lows as was expected but they could not close the day with a strong bull bar. Instead we printed weak bull bars or inside bars. Are we any smarter today? Not much. Both sides are to weak to show a clear direction and so we mostly move sideways. Bears do not have any arguments after not getting any follow through. Bulls at least closed it above the daily 20ema, so we are still inside the bullish patterns and upwards is more likely than down. dax futures comment: We have formed nested triangles and I have no opinion on who might win the breakout. Today my bias was heavily bullish and that paid big time in the morning but then the weak bulls surprised me. I do expect the breakout to happen tomorrow. current market cycle: late bull trend key levels: 19400 - 20000 bull case: Bulls broke above yesterday’s trading range which was an obvious magnet but were not strong enough to get above Tuesday’s highs and closed the day slightly above the open price. The formed triangle will likely play out in tomorrow’s EU session and during the US session we should see a bigger breakout. Bulls still have the valid 20000 target. Invalidation is below 19300. bear case: Bears are showing signs of life and the pattern the market has printed over the past 2 months, shows us that we are late in this bull trend and the end is probably near. I have little doubt that if we get to 20000, the high should be around that price and if you can hold shorts for longer and scale in higher, it will be an amazing short opportunity. Until bears print a big bear bar below the bull trend line and daily 20ema, this market is still inside the bull trend. Invalidation is above 19700. short term: Neutral. 19413 should hold as the low and I slightly favor the bulls to break above the triangle but I will wait for strong confirmation or buy longs on decent pullbacks. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19 : 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. Right now there is no selling pressure. I am confident that we will hit 17000 in 2025 but timing is more important than price, so let’s not waste brain capital on being bearish for now. current swing trade: None trade of the day : Yesterday I wrote this is a strong buy and so it was. Buying the Globex low while bar 24 formed was an amazing trade.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
2024-10-23 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Big bear day on most indexes but they did not accomplish enough to flip the markets to always-in-short. I do think the odds of a bullish reversal into the weekend are much greater than continued selling. Many markets are at perfect support and buying this is a no-brainer for many bulls. We still have bullish targets above us (e.g. sp500 → 6000 and dax to 20000). dax futures comment: Bulls have waited for this pullback a long time and I highly doubt they will let it go to waste. Very high chance of this being a bear trap and we melt from here. Wait for confirmation before you trade this. We are right at the daily 20ema and the big bull trend line from August. Buying with a stop 19416 is probably risky but could work. Waiting for bears to try 19400 again might be wiser but it depends on tomorrows price action. Last thing I want to do here is enter new shorts. As mentioned in my weekly update and over the last weeks, 20000 is the target and I doubt the market can move significantly lower without touching it. Buckel up for tomorrow and Friday, we will see some big moves. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 19400 - 20000 bull case: Bulls got the textbook pullback to huge support and they want to go straight up to 20000 from here. There is nothing more fancy to say about this. Look at the chart and wait for bulls to come around tomorrow, use a decent stop and let your trade run when it happens. Where would most bulls give up? Tough. It’s probably not 19399. Many will scale in but I do think this should not go below 19300 or the bull case is likely over. Invalidation is below 19300. bear case: Bears had a strong day but did not close below the daily ema and the big bull trend line. Zero doubt that bears will give up quickly once bulls come around because they know it’s big support. They made some decent points the past 3 days and most won’t overstay their welcome. If they manage to get below 19300, they would flip the market to always in short and their next targets would be 19100. Very unlikely that will happen but it’s possible, so I think it’s useful to mention. Invalidation is above 19480. short term: If we stay above 19400, max bullish for 20000. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19 : 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. Right now there is no selling pressure. I am confident that we will hit 17000 in 2025 but timing is more important than price, so let’s not waste brain capital on being bearish for now. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Selling 19570 has worked on Tuesday and so today. Obvious resistance.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024Long
by priceactiontds
Could the price bounce from here?GER40 is reacting off the support level which is a pullback support and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 19,439.80 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Stop loss: 19,279.78 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 19,673.35 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
GLong
by VantageMarkets
#202442 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax xetraGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax: We are in W5 and no idea how high it will go. 20000 is the obvious choice and only 300 points higher on xetra. Until we hit that level, it’s hard to get bearish. The bull channel is also perfectly leading up to that price and who tf am I to deny technical patterns eh. Only longs for me are on strong momentum and they will be scalps. I am awaiting the weakness to short this into oblivion over the next 2 years. Quote from last week: comment: Bullish outlook was good. Bulls will likely retest ath on Monday/Tuesday and have good chances of making new ones. My targets above are 19500 and 19600 with 20000 being possible if we get blow-off top. Don’t be a bear until bears can close below 18900. comment : Bullish was good but the rally is losing steam. We are in the final leg before we probably transition into a trading range before we go down. 20000 is the target for bulls and I expect them to get it one way or the other. Preferred path is a spike followed by huge profit taking. Nothing about the chart is good for bears and I would not even think about shorts, before we see some decent selling again. You never want to be early in a trade as a retail trader. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 19000 - 20000 bull case: Bulls have all arguments on their side again. My bullish wave thesis is still fitting perfectly and W5 could lead to 20000. Any close below 19200 would seriously hurt the bull case. I can’t write anything else but the stuff from last week. Nothing changed. We are moving higher, bears have no arguments, 20k is the target. Don’t make this more complicated as it is. Invalidation is below 19300. bear case: If you don’t want to long this, you simply have to wait. Bears are doing nothing and until we see much greater selling pressure, I will not even waste time on thinking bearish. Will this overvalued trash index lose 30-50% in the next 5 years? I have zero doubts about that. Is this the time to start scaling into shorts? Absolutely fucking not. Invalidation is above 19400. outlook last week: short term: Bullish for 19500 and higher. → Last Sunday we traded 19373 and now we are at 19779. Everyone is a genius in a bull trend. Never forget that when your uber driver tells you about Nvidia or Dogecoin. short term: Bullish for 20000. Can see a pullback first or not. We are in the middle of the channel, which is always a bad spot. Trade momentum or long a decent pullback. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. Right now there is no selling pressure. I am confident that we will hit 17000 in 2025 but timing is more important than price, so let’s not waste brain capital on being bearish for now. current swing trade: None chart update: Added minor upper bull wedge trend lines (dotted) which will likely be broken on Monday and deleted again and a possible two legged correction.
XETR:DAXLong
by priceactiontds
2024-10-17 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Bullish spikes on all of them but markets closed mixed. All closed with a big tail above and we are where we closed yesterday. Near but still above the daily 20ema, near bull trend lines but also with bulls not strong enough to get a big breakout above with follow through. Most of the current patterns are in their last stages and the breakout will happen over the next days. I am neutral for now and scalp in both directions. dax futures comment: Big spike to new ath but also big rejection. Market is contracting inside the clear bull wedge. I doubt we get the breakout tomorrow but it could happen but next week for sure. Where will this break out to? Right now I favor another leg down to 19500ish more than a breakout above. On the daily chart it’s bullish and nothing else. I still do have my 20000 target. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 19500 - 20000 bull case: Bulls touched 19800 and got rejected, no surprise there. Only question is how fast do will they retest that price. It’s possible that we need to sell some more to find new buyers but I do think bulls have a better chance of the blow off top if they stay above 19600. Since we are oscillating around 19700, I can’t be anything but neutral for now. Invalidation is below 19500. bear case: Bears need a daily close below 19500 to break outside the bull wedge inside the bigger bull channel on the daily chart. Volume is increasing which is better for the bears than the bulls but they can’t print one decent daily bear bar and until that changes, you simply can not be a bear here. Invalidation is above 19820. short term: Neutral. Bullish above 19820 and bearish below 19500. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-06: 3 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19500 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Not so sure about 19491 being the high, since liquidity could see a bigger increase and upside could be higher. We will likely have another 10%+ correction this year and a possible year end rally. Update 2024-10-13: Possibility of a blow-off top to 20000 is there. If we get there, it will be the short opportunity of the decade. current swing trade: None trade of the day: S elling 19800 or buying the opening breakout above 19640, which was good for 160 points.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
2024-10-15 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. dax futures comment: A daily bear bar closing on it’s low. What a time to be alive. Kinda in the middle of the channel now, which is a bad bad place to trade. Both sides have valid arguments. I would rather sit on hands and only scalp on momentum than initiate trades around 19600. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 19500 - 20000 bull case: Bulls can be happy a decent dip came which they can now buy. Will they buy 19600 or will they wait? I am not sure but would you really want to buy 19600 now in hopes of a climactic continuation above 19800? Hard to make that a good trade. I do think the rally was fueled by momentum, that is gone now. Invalidation is below 19500. bear case: Bears finally got a decent day and they want/need follow through tomorrow. Obvious targets to hit next are 19350ish (breakout price) and the potentially much bigger support at the daily 20ema and the bull trend line around 19300-19350. If we get there, I highly doubt bears will push their luck and we see another strong move up. On the 1h tf, the first target for tomorrow is the open of the week 19536 and that is also where a smaller bull trend line is. Can be bigger support and bears could also give up there. Hard to make a bigger bear case for now but it’s worse for the bulls to blindly buy this just because we dipped some. Invalidation is above 19800. short term: Bullish but a bit more neutral right now, until we know where the next support is and bulls come around again medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-06: 3 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19500 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Not so sure about 19491 being the high, since liquidity could see a bigger increase and upside could be higher. We will likely have another 10%+ correction this year and a possible year end rally. Update 2024-10-13: Possibility of a blow-off top to 20000 is there. If we get there, it will be the short opportunity of the decade. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Shorting 19750 was not the hard part about the short trade but holding through bar 38 - 52 was. Had to get short bar 32 or latest 33. Can you hold afterwards? Tough. Open price was an obvious magnet when we hit 19650, so do you want to hold through a 60 point up move when you are short? I did not. Could have gone short below bar 57 but then you see the spike and hope for more and when you hold, market reverses bad again and you are underwater or break even at best. Then you do what? The 15m 20ema was decent to short then but all in all tough because market wanted lower but also produced many big tails below the bars that touched 19600.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
2024-10-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - In my weekly post yesterday I wrote “max bullish” a couple of times and I hope you did not short this today. Bulls are in absolute control and they have no reason to stop buying every small dip. You can not be a bear on the hope that this madness will stop eventually. It can go much further than you can imagine. Strong day, strong close, can only expect higher prices until bears print consecutive big bear bars on higher time frames. My best guess is still a blow-off top this week, which can mark the top before we see a bigger correction. Today felt like we are already in it. dax futures comment: Bulls got follow through and confirmed Friday’s bullishness. There is nothing bearish about this so don’t waste time looking for bear arguments. You never want to be the first in trading unless you are a big institution who needs to scale into positions because you literally move the market otherwise. 19700 is almost a given but buying high is not the way to go here. Wait for decent pullbacks. Today the 30m 20ema was perfect to buy on 3 occasions. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 19500 - 20000 bull case: Bulls are close enough to 20000 and bears absent to enough to expect that we get there. We have formed a proper channel where the lower trend line is around 19600. If that holds, it’s max bullish again but we could also reach the bigger trend line around 19500 before going higher again. Since bulls literally bought every dip since Wednesday, expect for them to continue to do so. Invalidation is below 18500. bear case: Best they can hope for is sideways movement and maybe get down to the 1h 20ema. Anything below 19500 would surprise me. Their target is to test the 1h 20ema and the lower bull channel line around 19600ish. If they somehow break that, their next target would be the price area around 19550. Invalidation is above 18720. short term: Max bullish until bears come around. Look for longs. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-06: 3 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19500 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Not so sure about 19491 being the high, since liquidity could see a bigger increase and upside could be higher. We will likely have another 10%+ correction this year and a possible year end rally. Update 2024-10-13: Possibility of a blow-off top to 20000 is there. If we get there, it will be the short opportunity of the decade. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Close of last week held during Globex, EU opened could not even get down there, that was the last big hint bulls mean business and you should get long. Only real tricky thing today was to either hold through bar 32 - 34 or get long again on bar 49 or 54.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024Long
by priceactiontds
DAX to challenge the all time highs?DE30EUR - 24H EXPIRY Our short term bias remains positive. Intraday dips continue to attract buyers and there is no clear indication that this sequence for trading is coming to an end. Previous resistance at 19300 now becomes support. We look to buy dips. Price action continues to trade around the all-time highs. - We look to Buy at 19305 (stop at 19205) Our profit targets will be 19555 and 19625 Resistance: 19400 / 19495 / 19600 Support: 19340 / 19300 / 19200 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:DE30EURLong
by OANDA
2024-10-10 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax - Perfect two legged (ABC) correction on the 1h tf and now bulls are free to continue the short squeeze. Buckle up. Bears are only allowed to speak below 19250. If bears manage that, next target would be 19100 and a continuation of the trading range since last Tuesday. My swing long is going. comment : My line in the sand for the bulls was 19250 and the low was 19276. Bulls now want the third big leg up tomorrow and they have all the reason to assume it will happen. We have a perfect bull trend line, so watch what the market is doing around it and don’t short until it’s broken. I’m full bull here. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 19000 - 20000 bull case: Bulls want the third leg to 19600+. That’s it. As long as the bull trend line holds, it’s bullish. You can either long now or wait on a breakout above 19450 with follow through. Either is fine. Stop is obvious (if not, ask me). Invalidation is below 19276. bear case: Bears fumbled it today. Selling was decent but they could not get below the breakout price 19270 and if bulls start the better buying tomorrow, I don’t think we will see much fighting. If bears somehow manage to print below 19250, consider me surprised and that I am wrong. Invalidation is above 19450. short term: Max bullish. Stop is still 19250. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01 : 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade : Can do long now, 19358 or wait on breakout. Stop is the same. trade of the day: Selling 19400 was decent I guess but on these days you find the middle of the range and scalp.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024Long
by priceactiontds