Get started

Ger40

#202439 - priceactiontds - weekly updateGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax: New ath but market rejected it with -300+ points. Bulls are still inside nested bull wedges and a big bull channel on the weekly/monthly chart. I favor bulls as long as the current bull wedge is alive but we could test down to 18500 on Monday. Bulls should not let it get below 18400. Above 19000 I expect another ath and targets above are 19100/19200. Quote from last week: comment: Disappointment bar on Monday, bears tried again on Tuesday and Wednesday but market held above 18200 and bears then quickly gave up. My bearishness last week was a bit too strong but slightly profitable until the reversal on Wednesday. So, not much harm done. Market formed a bull wedge and if bulls can close the bear gap to 18750 on Monday, we will very likely see 18990 or 19000 over the next days. Bears have nothing until they can get below 18200 or we reach 19000. I don’t think that many traders will be interested in buying above 19000 but let’s see next week. comment : Monday left no doubt where we were heading and my outlook was perfect. No one wanted to buy above 19000 and we traded 300 points down again. We are contracting inside the bull wedge and will see a breakout over the next 3 days. That can go either way so I will go neutral into next week. Both sides have reasonable arguments. I do favor the bulls slightly but need confirmation for that and this would only be above 19300/19400 and that is 600 points away. We are inside a trading range 17700 - 19000 for over 6 months now. That is as neutral as it gets. We are making higher highs but by how much? Couple of points and that’s absolutely normal inside trading ranges. And if you think “bUt YoU sAiD wE aRe iN a BuLl wEdGe”, yes. Might blow your brain out but markets can trade inside a multiple of patterns on different time frames and you have to prioritize them by the one starting on the highest tf and working yourself to the lowest tf you want to trade. current market cycle: big trading range key levels: 17000 - 19000 bull case: Bulls are slightly favored since we are inside nested bull wedges or a bigger broad bull channel, depending on how you want to draw it. Does it matter? No. We are also in a trading range inside the given key levels and that does not change how you trade the current patterns either. Bulls made a lower high last week and a higher high. As long as the lower high holds, bulls are favored for more upside. Should you buy 18720? It’s not unreasonable but Friday was quad witching and we closed at the low. I’d rather wait for bulls to come around on Monday before buying. We could touch the bull trend line around 18500/18600 before reversing but I do think we will retest at least 18900. My most insane upside target currently is 20900 but until we have a weekly close above 19400, it’s a waste of time thinking more than 2 minutes about it. Trade patterns that are valid and until they are clearly broken. Invalidation is below 18500. bear case: Bears rejected 19000 by 300 points again and the big questions is, will they get follow through selling on Monday and can they push below the bull trend line out of the bull wedge? I highly doubt that. It’s possible but unlikely. Market will probably spent more time inside the wedge before we break out by going sideways or below, once it’s contracted enough. Anything above 19100 would show great weakness by the bears and a possible giving up for 19300 or higher. On the weekly chart the highest weekly close was 18906 and bears need to keep it that way. Any weekly close above 19000 opens the door for higher prices. Invalidation is above 19100. outlook last week: short term: Neutral. Bullish above 18750 for 18900+, bearish below 18200 and neutral in between. → Last Sunday we traded 18699 and now we are at 18720. High was 19044 and that outlook could not have been more perfect. Nailed the long above 18750 and the rejection above 19000. Hope you made some. short term: Neutral around 18720 but expecting bulls to come around and retest 19000. Could drop to 18500/18600 first though. Anything below 18500 would surprise me big time. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: 3 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Not so sure about 19000 being the high, since liquidity could see a bigger increase and upside could be higher. We will likely have another 10%+ correction this year and a possible year end rally. current swing trade : None chart update: Removed the bear gap and added the insane potential measured move to 20900. Don’t bet on that.
XETR:DAX
by priceactiontds
DAX breaking above this Resistance can target 20000DAX hit yesterday Resistance 1 (the September 03 High) but got rejected and failed to close the candle above it. Naturally, the market is reacting with weakness today and so far a red 1D candle. As you realize, the key here is to close that candle above Resistance 1, which is what happened in the middle of the previous Bullish Leg of the 1-year Channel Up. After testing the Resistance at the time on January 29 2024, the index turned sideways for a few days, until it finally closed above it and started the 2nd phase of the Bullish Leg. All this time the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) was supporting, just as it did recently on September 06. If those conditions are met, we expect another run towards the 1.618 Fibonacci extension (where the April 01 Higher High was priced). Our Target is slightly below it at 20000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:DE40Long
by TradingShot
2024-09-19 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Big news first. There is no reason why markets could not continue higher. Tis what I wrote yesterday. So you have been warned I guess. Indexes - Huge gap up and go on most markets during the Globex and EU session. Right now we are mostly trading between the 15m and 1h 20ema and that’s my absolute worst spot to trade. Markets held at the highs and closed there, so bulls have all the arguments on their side, yet tomorrow is Opex and those max bullish options probably won’t be green at the end of tomorrow. So now bullish outlook from me after today. dax futures comment: Another one. Gap up today and market kept going. 19000 (xetra) is a nice round number and we could stall here or reverse. Another higher target would be 19260 (big green bull trend line on the daily chart). This would also align with the futures ATH at 19204 while futures are trading around 30 points above xetra. Long story short, don’t sell this yet. After such a strong day you simply can not hold a bearish bias. current market cycle: broad bull channel but also a big trading range on the daily chart on futures key levels: 18800 - 19200 bull case: Bulls had an amazing day. Futures ath from May is 19204 and there is no reason we can not get it. Tomorrow is opex and those days are always special. Don’t get trapped tomorrow and only take AAA setups. Invalidation is below 18600. bear case: Bears gave up during the globex session. They would need a strong 1h close below 18900 and then a gap close to 18730 to have better arguments. On the 1h tf we are currently in the C of the two legged correction and right at the 1h 20ema. It’s a buy signal if bulls reverse and we could go sideways overnight. Don’t get trapped into taking those kind of bad shorts. Some bears argue that we are at the top of the trading range on the daily/weekly chart and at the top of the current bull channel on 1h chart. Is this enough to sell this? Not after such a strong day today. You need confirmation below the 1h ema. Invalidation is above 19100. short term: Neutral but mostly looking for longs until bears trade below 18900. Bulls are in full control but that does not mean I want to buy high in hopes of going higher. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: None. trade of the day: Market held strongly above 18800 with many tries to get below. Bar 32 was a give up bar by the bears and a decent buy signal. You were then buying high in a trading range but the context was good enough to expect at least 18920 but market never looked back. 19040 was also clear resistance and shorting this price was profitable many times today.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by priceactiontds
DAX: Aggressive uptrend for the rest of the year.DAX maintains a very healthy bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.112, MACD = 108.800, ADX = 23.465) as it is extending a rebound aon the 1D MA50, after an August 5th rebound on the 1D MA200 as well. Successive holds of those levels suggest that the index has already started the new Bullish Wave of the 2022 Channel Up. We can target at least the 2.0 Fibonacci level (TP = 20,250) as it was the level that priced the last HH. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:DE40Long
by InvestingScope
2024-09-17 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Many new highs but also a deep pullback and we closed around the middle of the daily range. Are we smarter than yesterday? We know that bulls remain in control since we are trading above most higher tf ema but bears also sold off for 1% today on the sp500. I keep my neutral stance and wait for the FOMC debacle to be over with. No one knows where markets will go on either 25 or 50bps. Be more like Elsa, let it go. You don’t have to gamble away hard earned profits on max confused and undecided markets. dax futures comment: Bulls got above my given target 18750 in my weekly update but got rejected for almost 200 points. Market is still neutral imo and I don’t expect this to change until some hours after FOMC. Since the market is so confusing and no one knows where rates might go, we can expect traps before and after FOMC. I refuse to trade much tomorrow. current market cycle: big bull wedge on the daily tf and bull channel on the 1h tf key levels: 18600 - 18900 bull case: Bulls printed 18800 and this could have been it before FOMC. We are 270 points below the ath (xetra) and we could easily get there. That’s also the only target left for the bulls. As long as the bull channel holds, they are in control and favored for higher prices. Invalidation is below 18600. bear case: Bears reversed much of today’s gains and did so in a fast manner. Bulls still bought it again, like the previous week. Bears need to start making lower lows again or bulls continue to btfd. Bears first target is to get below 18600 which would also break the bull channel. If you look at the daily chart we have many tails above and below bars. Bulls are grinding higher but it can reverse quickly imo. 1h ema is pretty flat, so don’t get trapped selling low or buying high. Invalidation is above 18820. short term: Neutral. Only scalping small positions until we know how market thinks FOMC is to be interpreted. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01 : 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Globex lows held and the long after the double bottom around 18680 was good. Also selling the second try by the bears when bulls failed at 18800 (double top) but it’s hard to be this flexible on bigger swings. If you took one of those, you probably had an amazing day.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
GER40 swing trade(UPDATE)Last week we were looking for a sell from 18500 with many technical confluences. We also had a 11 day straight bull run without any meaningful retracements. This is a continuation to the previous idea, as the price did not react from our level of interest and kept pushing higher. Currently waiting for 18800, which is the Weekly 0.786 fib level drawn from the all time high. We target 18500-18450 for our TP1. Will update next week. As always, trade safe and wait for confirmations before entering a trade. Fractals Trading Community, Mei
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Short
by martinmei
European Shares Gain as DAX Holds Bullish Momentum Ahead of CPIEuropean Shares Rise, Led by Tech and Resources Sectors European shares opened higher on Wednesday, with gains driven by the tech and basic resources sectors, as investors await a key U.S. inflation report for insights into the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision. The DAX remains in a bullish momentum zone as long as it trades above 18,180, with potential targets at 18,520 and, beyond that, 18,645. The trend is expected to remain bullish ahead of the inflation data, and if the data aligns with expectations, this momentum is likely to strengthen. However, a break below 18,180 could signal a downturn, with the price potentially falling towards 17,960. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 18300 Resistance Levels: 18520, 18640, 18780 Support Levels: 18180, 17970, 17740 Expected Range: 18180 - 18780 Trend: Bullish as long as the price stays above 18,290 and 18,180.
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Long
by SroshMayi
#202438 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax: Neutral. Won’t be running into any more traps again. Both sides have reasonable arguments but bulls closed last week at the highs, so bulls are slightly favored. Best pattern currently is probably the big bull wedge we are in. Bulls want a retest of the ath 18990 and bears below 18000. Bullish above 18750 and bearish below 18200, neutral in between. Quote from last week: comment: Selling is already too strong for a pullback in a bull trend. We are in a big trading range and on our way to test the lower range somewhere between 17000 - 17500. Do we get there in a straight line like we went up in August? Highly unlikely but so was the climactic selling and the insane reversal over the past 5 weeks. comment : Disappointment bar on Monday, bears tried again on Tuesday and Wednesday but market held above 18200 and bears then quickly gave up. My bearishness last week was a bit too strong but slightly profitable until the reversal on Wednesday. So, not much harm done. Market formed a bull wedge and if bulls can close the bear gap to 18750 on Monday, we will very likely see 18990 or 19000 over the next days. Bears have nothing until they can get below 18200 or we reach 19000. I don’t think that many traders will be interested in buying above 19000 but let’s see next week. current market cycle: big trading range key levels: 17000 - 19000 bull case: Bulls did not do much on Monday and Tuesday but enough to make many bears take profits early and stall the market and bears were not having that, so they gave up. Bulls are favored if they get above 18750 but I think it’s very close to 50/50 if we make a new ath. Market is undecided to the max and we see many traps on any time frame. We are above the daily ema and the bull trend line from the wedge, so bulls are slightly favored. Invalidation is below 18200. bear case: Bears gave up on Thursday and do they want to fight it at 18700? I don’t think so. Thu + Fr was strong enough that we can expect a retest of the ath next week and there I expect stronger selling to happen again. Since we did not print 19000 so far, it’s an obvious magnet and market’s rarely touch those big round numbers and reverse from there. We will likely overshoot some before big bears come around. Make no mistake, this buying here is purely absolutely atrocious from any reasonable valuation level given many German macro indicators but that stuff will only destroy your account so let’s not go there. Market is overvalued and we will likely see 17000 again this year. Invalidation is above 18750. outlook last week: short term: Bearish but only on momentum again. Any pullback has to stay below 18700. Next targets for bears are 18000 and below that is 17500. Fun times ahead. → Last Sunday we traded 18301 and now we are at 18699. Bears fumbled it on Wednesday and then quickly gave up. Bearish momentum was there on Tuesday but they barely made a new low. Anyhow, bad outlook. short term: Neutral. Bullish above 18750 for 18900+, bearish below 18200 and neutral in between. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: Cut those shorts on Thursday and will try again around 19000 if bears come around. chart update: Added a bull wedge again and made the bear gap smaller.
XETR:DAX
by priceactiontds
GERMANY 40 / DE40 MONEY HEIST PLAN ON BULLISHHola ola My Dear, Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, This is our master plan to Heist GERMANY 40 / DE40 based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Short entry. Our target is Green Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is oversold / Consolidation / Trend Reversal / Trap at the level Bullish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich. Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money. Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Sell Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Swing High Stop Loss : Recent Swing High using 1h timeframe Warning : Fundamental Analysis comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update. Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target. Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Long
by Thief_Trader
2024-09-11 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - What a bear trap that was. Many decent double bottoms and then straight up melting. Many markets did not even touch the 3m 20ema on the move up. Bulls took full control again imo and I expect the highs to be retested, if not broken. SP500 the strongest of the ones I trade. Very very low chance of this being a bull trap after a bear trap and we reverse hard tomorrow but at this point of the chop, I won’t rule anything out. dax futures comment: Dax is not looking that strong like the sp500 does. Technically it’s currently just a two legged pullback to the daily ema and odds still favor the bears for another leg down. If the bulls break above 18550, that changes and bulls are favored to trade back to 18800 and above. Very important day tomorrow. current market cycle: trading range until either 18550 or 18200 broken key levels: 18200 - 18550 bull case: Strong reversal after the double bottom around 18220 today. If bulls generate follow through above 18550 tomorrow, many bears could give up and we see an acceleration upwards. Invalidation is below 18400 (not sure about the invalidation level as of now). bear case: Bears need a bit of a miracle tomorrow to prevent the bulls from breaking above 18550. The bear channel is gone and the 4h ema too. What arguments do bears have? Well, the current price action is wild in both directions. Since Friday we are in a 400ish point trading range. Technically, on the daily chart, it’s still just a two legged pullback to the daily ema and bears could try to get another leg down, I just highly doubt those arguments are better than the bullish ones. Invalidation is above 18550. short term : I wait for the breakout above given price. Bears would need to trade below 18400 before I think about shorts again. 18500 is a bad spot to enter new positions. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: None. trade of the day : Short near the 4h ema was once again a very good trade. Buying the double bottom bar 4 Tuesday and bar 4 today.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
2024-09-10 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Dax puked hard but bulls are also making money there. Rest of my followed indexes were mixed. Bears still expect a bigger second leg down when you look at the daily charts. Add the bull trend lines to the current bear flags and wait for a break below. If we get it, I do think most bulls will cover. I am not too fond of buying currently. dax futures comment: 4h ema is your guide. Saw multiple rejections there again and sold off hard. Market is going straight up and down, bears are in control but both sides make money. We have a decent bear channel but bears were not strong enough to touch the lower trend line again, before bulls bought it aggressively. I think they can get it above 18420 or higher. If not, the bear trend could accelerate downwards but I doubt that. Overall markets are too two sided currently. current market cycle : bear trend key levels : 18200 - 18550 bull case: No close above the 4h ema, no breakout above previous highs but market is two sided enough for bulls to make money. No better arguments for them until they make higher highs and higher lows again. I think 18000 is probably the next bigger support where it could happen but bears already had 3 pushes down and pullbacks. Chances for a 4th or 5th leg down are very small so bulls could try to keep it above 18210. Invalidation is below 18440. bear case: Lower highs, lower lows. Bears are in control. No more magic to it. We have the 4h ema as a good sport to short and the upper bear channel line. Market did bounce 10 points above my calculated 50% pullback for the bull trend and tomorrow will be interesting if bears can do a lower high again and break below 18200. Much easier to trade this currently, if you look more at higher than lower time frames, which leads me to the argument for the bulls about the 3 pushes down. On the daily chart bears see one giant leg down and want another one. We are currently in a bear flag and if bulls fail to trade above 18700, odds favor the bears for a giant second leg down. Invalidation is above 18523. short term : Bullish for 18440+ but problem is the stop. If you would short 18303, where would you put it? Only good one is 18209 but that could easily get tested again. Best to not trade in the middle of the channel or only on very strong momentum. Above 18440 I favor shorts again, if we stay below 18523. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: Closed the shorts too early. Bad trading on my part. Read was good though. Also expected the bounce but got stopped out badly because I entered too early and market dropped way deeper than expected. trade of the day: Short near the 4h ema.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
2024-09-09 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Green across the board. On the daily charts it’s mostly a small to normal bullish inside bar, so nothing to get excited about yet for the bulls. Tomorrow will be very important for the bears. If they fail to test the lows again or stop the pullback, many bears could give up and let the bulls test the highs again. In my weekly outlook I wrote that the 4h ema is currently the most important one and almost all markets respected it and closed below. Will look for early weakness and want to short for retest of the Friday lows. dax futures comment: Market closed below the 4h ema so bears remain in control. I think the odds favor the bears for a retest of the lows and some more sideways movement before we get another impulse. On the 15m chart there is a clear bull channel which is good to trade for now. Will probably see a contraction in Globex and early EU session before a breakout above or below. current market cycle: trading range - below 18260 we know we are in a bear trend inside the bigger trading range. key levels: 18260 - 18600 bull case : Bulls need a 1h close above the 4h ema and the next target above is 18638 which is Friday’s high. If they get above it, most bears will give up on the bear trend pattern and we likely see acceleration upwards. Bulls need to defend the current bull channel where the lower trend line is currently around 18440. Invalidation is below 18440. bear case : Bears currently have 2 decent bear gaps on the daily chart. If they can keep the market below the 4h ema, that would help their case big time. Bear targets are 18400 and then 18300. Invalidation is above 18550 (daily 20ema). short term: Bears are still in control and the odds favor a second leg down. The pullback need to stay below 18550ish, give or take. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: Swing short since 18454 with SL 18600/18650. Will add higher if necessary. trade of the day: Buying 18400 was decent today. Bulls defended that price and market was two sided enough for a couple of scalps.
EUREX:FDXSU2024Short
by priceactiontds
GERMANY 40 / DE40 Market Money Heist Plan on Bearish SideHola ola My Dear, Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, This is our master plan to Heist GERMANY 40 / DE40 Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Short entry. Our target is Green Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is oversold / Consolidation / Trend Reversal / Trap at the level Bullish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich. Attention for Scalpers : If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money. Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Sell Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Swing High Stop Loss : Recent Swing High using 1H timeframe Warning : Fundamental Analysis comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update. Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target. Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Short
by Thief_Trader
#202437 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax: Full bear mode. Bull trap and of August after making a new ath. Market is clearly in a hurry to go down again. Stairs up, elevator down. Most likely the bear gap to 18750 will stay open and every short sl has to be around that price. 1. tp is 50% pullback 18000 and as of now I expect a pullback there or more sideways movement. Below 18000 we will see 17400 fast. Quote from last week: comment: Bulls printed a new ath and if you would look at the RSI, which I don’t, it would show a divergence. You really really don’t need the RSI to tell you that. Even so, market could go higher and there is no reason to short this yet. I am 90% certain this is not a W1 of a new bull trend that will break above the bull wedge but rather a retest of the highs, in this case a higher high, and it will reverse soon enough. A bigger pullback is overdue but that does not mean you can short this yet. comment: Selling is already too strong for a pullback in a bull trend. We are in a big trading range and on our way to test the lower range somewhere between 17000 - 17500. Do we get there in a straight line like we went up in August? Highly unlikely but so was the climactic selling and the insane reversal over the past 5 weeks. current market cycle: big trading range key levels: 17000 - 19000 bull case: As expected, the first decent selling on Monday and bulls are running for the exits. Climactic buying, followed by climactic selling. I don’t expect the bulls to fight this, like the bears did not fight anything from 17400 to 18990. The 50% pullback at 18000 is a decent target where the bulls could try to stall it and hope for a bounce. At this point it’s useless to try to call a top or anything beyond the next 2 weeks. If anything, it’s 50/50 if we make another ath this year or not. Invalidation is below 18500. bear case: Bears came around right below 19000 and produced strong enough selling to trigger many stops. Bulls are fearful that we test all the way back down to 17000 and that’s why we don’t see much resistance from them. In any bear case over the next weeks, the bear gap to 18730 has to stay open. On the weekly chart it’s now an expanding triangle which is a form of a trading range. To hit 17000 over the next 1-2 weeks would be amazing for the bears again but I highly doubt they could get the market below, without any serious deterioration of macro schmackro stuff. Something has to break for this market to trade back to not maximum overvalued bubble territory. If you don’t think dax above 18000 is bubble territory while gdp is -0.3% for 2023 and flat at best in 2024, I can’t help you. Invalidation is above 18700. outlook last week: short term: Neutral again. I’m confident we will reverse soon but it’s too early to be looking for shorts. Bears need to start making lower lows and lower highs before I start. What do I need to go long? Only scalps after pullbacks for me. Very little interest in buying up here because I do not see this going to 19200. → Last Sunday we traded 18906 and now we are at 18301. It was too early for shorts last Sunday but during Tuesday’s session it became clearer that the market wanted to go down. short term: Bearish but only on momentum again. Any pullback has to stay below 18700. Next targets for bears are 18000 and below that is 17500. Fun times ahead. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: Decent to be in swing shorts now. Stop has to be 18700 or even 19000. Will join the bears on Monday, if they go straight below 18270 or on a decent pullback to 18500. chart update: Nothing. Removed the bull wedge and added the bear gap.
XETR:DAXShort
by priceactiontds
2024-09-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Bears are selling the rips but most markets are contracting. Will most likely see a big move tomorrow but I don’t have a strong opinion on the direction. Very slightly favoring the bears for a bigger second leg down. dax futures comment: Y close was 18625 and today’s close was 18624. We oscillate around this price. Every time market does this, you are in a trading range and should not over analyze it. Look at the daily chart and get a sense of what the market is trying to do. Right now bears are in control but with every day of sideways movement, their control vanes and market becomes more neutral and I do think that if bears do not get their big second leg down started tomorrow, the chances of a break above or below are equal. current market cycle: trading range - wait for a clear breakout above or below given key levels key levels: 18500 - 18700 bull case: Bulls are making higher highs and higher lows but it’s still a tight bear flag on the daily chart. The bear gap to 18800 is still open and as long as that’s the case, bears are in control. Best bulls can do is make the market go sideways more until both sides are unsure about the next impulse, which means market is in balance. I think below 18500 most bulls will give up. Invalidation is below 18500. bear case: Bears are selling the rips but are not fighting for new lows right now. Market had is probably waiting for tomorrow’s US data to find more liquidity. No opinion on that data or the direction we will break out, other than I think bears are still favored for a second leg down. Should you be short right now in hopes of that? Clear no from me. Always better to get confirmation before entering the trade, unless you are good at scaling in and already rich af. Invalidation is above 18750. short term: Bears are in control and the odds favor a second leg down. Above 18700 I get more neutral and below 18570 I expect 18500 to follow soon and if bears break that, we will likely get the big second leg. Nothing changed in my short term outlook. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: None. Maybe tomorrow but only interested in shorts. trade of the day: Buying the open was by far the best one. Again. Don’t get bearish at the lows or bullish at the highs in trading ranges. Betting on breakouts is a losing strategy when market is this undecided.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
2024-09-04 - priceactiontds - short daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Bearish bias confirmed. Bulls getting nervous by now. More bad data releases and markets are leaving bear gaps unclosed. Today we also made lower lows and the pullbacks were shallow. All good for the bears and the odds of another strong leg down and a measured move got higher today. dax futures comment: Bears kept the 140 point gap to Tuesday’s close open and that shows strength. Bulls could not get a bar above the 1h ema today and I’d be surprised if it stays that way. Bears are in control and they want a second leg down. A measured move would bring us to almost exactly 18000. Absolutely favoring the bears to do that instead of bulls getting above 18800 again. current market cycle: huge trading range (below 18500 the minor bear trend inside the range is confirmed) key levels: 17000 - 19000 bull case : Bulls can be happy if they can keep the market going sideways. Today’s open price was not tested and we closed above the daily ema, which shows some strength by the bulls. For higher prices bulls need a strong 1h close above the ema and that’s all I can come up with for the bulls right now. Invalidation is below 18500. bear case: Bears have the big round number 18500 to break for lower prices. They are clearly in control again and they want to stay below the 1h ema for a measured move down to 18000. Below 18570 I expect many bull stops to be hit and we will test 18500 and there I expect bulls to come around more strongly again and trying to hold it. We already have a decent looking bear channel or wedge on the 1h tf. I want to see what the Globex session brings and then I will decide tomorrow morning if I do a swing short for 18000 with a stop 18800/18850. Invalidation is above 18750. short term: Bears are in control and the odds favor a second leg down. Above 18700 I get more neutral and below 18570 I expect 18500 to follow soon and if bears break that, we will likely get the big second leg. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: Will decide Thursday morning if I do a swing short. 18000 would be my first tp and stop at least 18820. trade of the day: Buying the open was by far the best one. Otherwise shorting 18670 the next best thing.
EUREX:FDXSU2024Short
by priceactiontds
DAX to continue in the upward move?GER40 - 24h expiry Price action continues to trade around the all-time highs. Price action resulted in a new all-time high at 18973. There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end. Preferred trade is to buy on dips. 20 4hour EMA is at 18886. We look to Buy at 18885 (stop at 18765) Our profit targets will be 19185 and 19265 Resistance: 18973 / 19100 / 19200 Support: 18900 / 18770 / 18700 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:DE30EURLong
by OANDA
DAX(GER30), nuke is coming?I explained the fundamental part in my EURUSD post. Check it out here: Now, let's talk about the technical part: At the London opening, we saw significant manipulation downward with a liquidity sweep from the previous day's low (PDL) and other swings. Now, I would love to see an aggressive movement upwards toward the all-time high (ATH), where I'll be looking for a short setup. However, if the price closes on the 1-4h time frame with a big fat candle, I won't touch the GER40 (DAX) for a while because there won't be any targets ("sky is the limit") to get liquidity from. There's one possible scenario: a move into premium after the first market structure (MS) shift today, followed by a second shift (break of structure, BoS). Bearish order flow will be confirmed, with the final target being the 4h fair value gap (FVG).
FOREXCOM:GER40Short
by Almenio