German DAX index: Pausing for a breatherThe German Dax index rose 25% from its lows in early October, delivering nine weeks of gains and outperforming US stock indices. The bullish price action has been rather sharp for a market that had a 27% decline from its top in the first nine months of the year.
In November 2022, the Dax saw overbought RSI for the first time in over a year and the index also managed to surpass quite easily its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, as well as a significant 50% Fibonacci threshold of 2022's low to high.
As prices now meet fierce resistance in surpassing the 61.8% Fibonacci level around 14,560 points, a pullback is possible in the following weeks.
The first area of support is located at the psychological level of 14,000. This level might serve as a solid test for validating the 50% Fibonacci level breakout occurred in November.
If the Dax fails to remain above 14,000, bears may gain impetus and push the price down below 13,500 (38.2% Fibonacci and 200-day moving average).
Currently, the strong 61.8% Fibonacci level resistance dominates the upside. If prices broke over this level, the June high of 14,700 would be the next resistance. However, with two important central banks meeting in less than two weeks (Fed on the 14 and ECB on the 15), the upside room for bulls may be limited here.
Germanindex
DAX: Push itIt's not a struggle for the German index! The DAX index used all its willpower to find its way up and pushed all the way to climb above the resistance at 13 970 points. We're currently observing an upwards slope that should steadily move into the pink zone between 14 346 - 14 687 points. As soon as the blue wave completes its movement, the trend should turn into a downwards slope heading to the resistance at 13 970 points. If the DAX can't keep its upwards trend going, there's a 35% chance for the trend to cross the support at 13 036 and drop below 11 829 points into the green zone. We'll keep you posted on whether the DAX can keep up with its hard work or if it slams on the brakes.
German DAX trending higher Daily Insight
Commentary:
Monday - German Industrial Production m/m beats forecast this follows Friday’s strong September factory orders data
German DAX +12% since October 13th
Higher tops and higher bottoms on price indicates short term uptrend taking shape (daily chart) , however resistance in front of current price may push price lower before continuing any further advance.
Current price 13,441
Key resistance at 13,555 , a break above resistance places 13,750 in sight for longs with a short term view (5 to 25 days), while short sellers may be aiming for a retest of the 12,950 support spotted at the 38.2% retracement from the 4 week high.
DAX Monthly Forecast Movements 1-30 November 2022 DAX Monthly Forecast Movements 1-30 November 2022
We can see that for this month, the implied volatility is around 7.3%, increasing from 7.18% of last month.
This is currently placing us in the 70th percentile according to ATR and 91th according to VDAX.
Based on this percentile calculation, on average the monthly movement for the candle(from open of the candle to the close of the candle) is:
BEARISH Candle : 5.3%
BULLISH Candle : 5.14%
With this in mind we can expect with a close to 16% probability that our close of the monthly candle is going to close either above or below the next channel:
BOT: 12385
TOP: 14302
Lastly, based on the calculations that we had for touching the previous candle high and low values, we can estimate that there is a :
75% chance that we are going to touch the previous monthly high of 13300 (already happened yesterday)
25% chance that we are going to touch the previous monthly low of 11900
Bullish technical conditions Looking ahead - ECB interest rate decision tomorrow
Tomorrow: 12:15 GMT European Central Bank (ECB) meeting takes place where a +0.75% (75 basis point) increase is expected
Market movers:
German DAX testing resistance opening up the potential for a further upside advance?
DAX Index: Bullish technical conditions in the very short-term following the reversal from the 11,829 low, the reversal signals the index may have entered a “corrective” cycle and if proven true places 13,144 at key resistance and 13,721 as prospective upside targets for longs with stops at 12,893.
Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
DEU40 DAXHELLO GUYS THIS MY IDEA 💡ABOUT DEU40 is nice to see strong volume area....
Where is lot of contract accumulated..
I thing that the Seller from this area will be defend this SHORT position..
and when the price come back to this area, strong SELLER will be push down the market again..
DOWNTREND + Support from the past + Strong volume area is my mainly reason for this short trade..
IF you like my work please like share and follow thanks
TURTLE TRADER 🐢
FDAX is Now in an unpredictable rangeFDAX was moving in the last months in kind of range below the 209 MA .
A massive Resistance that FDAX hasn't been able to break since early 2022.
A key Support was tested twice in March and May around the price of 12400.
Once FDAX breaks support with a large volume, a decline towards 10800 will probably resume.
Otherwise, if FDAX breaks the resistance and 209 MA, a massive pump-up will propel the price to a potential target of 16300
Daily analysis and trade setups on DAX Ger30 20220810Happy Midweek, Happy CPI Day,
As mentioned in yesterday's analysis, DAX not being able to hold above 13680 was ominous
Now a sustained move below 13440, break of 13300 will open it up to 12920. Will it happen today, we will see
It still has chance to gain back above 13680
13530 is the line in the sand today
Macro : DE HICP, US CPI
Buy
Break: 13550, 13630, 13685, 13740
Reversal: 13450, 13390, 13350, 13280, 13220
Sell
Break: 13460, 13400, 13370, 13300
Reversal: 13645, 13690, 13750, 13810, 13840
Green Goblin levels are here >>>
Fibonacci Confluence levels are here >>>
Daily analysis and trade setups on DAX Ger30 20220802*** Tradingview has hidden my analysis for August 1, 2022 because it contained a link to my twitter profile. ***
This is likely to be relatively quiet day unless some news appears. Practically entire Europe is now in vacation mode. Volumes are very thin and hence ticks can be jumpy.
DAX is on a retracement journey. So potential retracement levels are 13350, 13290, 13230 & 13140
If it breaks above 13450 and shows the momentum then next potential levels are 13580, 13690, 13780 and 13840
Macro: US Fed Evans Speech
Today's pivotal level is 13400. It remains bullish on the day above that and bearish below
Buy
Break: 13440, 13495, 13530, 13570, 13610
Reversal: 13340, 13260, 13200, 13170
Sell
Break: 13390, 13320, 13250
Reversal: 13500, 13610, 13720
Green goblin chart is here >>>
Confluence chart is here >>>
Dax30- A pretty nice outlook for bullsUnlike American indices, Dax30 looks like it has finished correcting at the beginning of March with a low at 12500.
After this low, the index has traded pretty constructively and at this moment a higher low can be in place at the 13500 zone.
The falling trend line started at the beginning of 2022 is also broken to the upside and we can assist in further gains this summer.
Traders can look to buy dips around the 14k zone with a negation under 13500 and a break of 15k horizontal resistance can lead to a test of the ATH above 16k.
Falling wedge on DAX Hello Traders
On weekend I published this idea first. Now the price formed a falling wedge and is now at the resistance from last week lows. The Traders Dynamic Index is bearish too.
If the price break through the wedge support plus the 38.2 fib level there will be a good chance that it will go further down to the 50 fib level maybe till 61.8 level.
Good Trades
DAX LONGS ACTIVE 📉📉📉📉 Expecting bullish price action on DAX as price takes out the weekly lows liquidity + old lows sell side liquidity. Price filled the D1 imbalance and takes out stops below 14.000 institutional figure, if we will see a bullish closure on the H4 with this ,,hammer,, candlestick there is a high probability of the DAX going higher alligned with the US STOCK MARKET correlation that should rise.
What do you think ? Comment below..
DAX Index Timeframe: Medium Term, Technical: Bullish <15400#DAX Index
#Weekly
#Technical Analysis
#crevixtrader
DAX analysis | 1D - Bearish marketThe price has broken the 200-day moving average power downwards! But there is no good volumetric support for the downtrend so far !
If the price can close below 14950 by the end of today, we will most likely see a downward trend.
If the price continues to decline, according to today's and tomorrow's news, as well as the use of lower time frames, we can enter the buying position based on the specified support points.
The support points are drawn based on the highest volume of transactions in the last 6 months !!!
DAX 30 May Drop Further - Short GER30FX:GER30
If you are interested, wait until price gets into the yellow box. Then open your trade using proper risk management.
PPPDirhams.
Disclaimer: This is just my idea. Am not liable for the end results if adapted by anyone. Trade cautiously as there are chances that you will lose your investment..
DAX Buy SignalDAX is rebounding after approaching two key pressure levels: the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 15040 Support (1). Last time the price rebounded on the level, it topped at 16,030 (current Resistance) after consolidated within a mini Bull Flag around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The Flag signal is the MACD Bullish Cross so keep an eye.
The medium-term target is naturally the Resistance, while on the long-term a price range within 16250 - 16400 as every previous Higher High since June has been near the 1.382 Fibonacci extension.
** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. **
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Tuesday: DAX - Week 36Hello Traders! Check Related Idea for market context!!
I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action.
Thanks for the support!
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Is it time for EU stocks to outperform US stocks again?Over the last years there were periods when US stocks outperform EU stocks and periods were EU stocks outperformed US stocks. Almost like a perfect oscillation. Currently EU stocks have been consolidating for quite some time and especially German stock, so maybe all stocks do well and EU ones do better. The secular trend when adjusted for EURUSD rates too, is still down for EU up for US, but in the short term EU ones look better.
I should just say EU ones, because Swiss stocks also look fantastic. They've been actually doing very very well and they look a bit like the DAX. Since 2000 DAX is up 100% vs EUR and 145% vs USD. SMI is up 45% vs CHF and 155% vs USD.
So to me there are two scenarios here as I don't think there is much downside. These stocks are somewhat undervalued both against themselves and against the US stock market, plus the ECB is really printing money and rates are super low which makes the stock market much more attractive than anything else.