Germany
Is Dax about to crash? I don't think so!It apears that DAX is likely to crash as it has formed a beautiful head and shoulder pattern. It is possible but I think DAX is less likely to break to the downside because:
(a) DAX is completing the complex fourth Elliott wave which has retraced back exactly 38% of the third bullish wave started in June 2016. It is now likely to move up in the fifth wave.
(b) DAX has not broken the bottom of the red channel (yet) which has remained intact since 2009. DAX can moves up after gaining support from the bottom of the channel.
(c) Everyone thinks that it is about to crash and it cannot be that obvious!!
Although anything can happen, but I think that DAX is more likely to move up from here, and reach the 15000 level before dropping back to around 10000. However, please pay attention to how the bottom of the red channel behaves. This idea will only work if the bottom of the red channel acts as support. If it breaks and starts to offer resistance, then the head and shoulder pattern will do what it is supposed to do!
PS: This analysis is just for educational purposes and is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please do your own research and trade at your own risk.
Cheers
ND
DAX - Trendline DAX30 is sitting right around the trend line, My personal view is that it will move back towards the upside from here and the trend line will hold its level and we will be looking at 12400 in the next week or so. However any geopolitical news will be a major turning point for the Index and Possibly send this towards 11300 Area.
The Spread widens This shows us how critical the situation is , and it is also among one of the contributing factors towards the weakening Euro(BTW the strong DXY isn't helping).
This is a spread chart and shows us the divergence in yield between the two states. It gives us an idea as to how investors are pricing risk relative to a "risk-less counterpart" which in this case , it would be the German bund.
The Dollar is King This chart shows a relationship that every trader who is serious with the business has to keep in mind. The dollar is king, A STRONG DOLLAR ends up WEAKENING
EMERGING MARKETS . This causes a capital flow away from them into safer dollar assets.
Right now , my game plan for the foreseeable future is to look for a short with good risk reward in the EEM as a whole , or break it down into its constituents and look for specific shorts in its holdings.
This dollar strength will also affect commodities , Stocks tied to commodities , XLE , and a myriad of other assets
Exciting times.
Deutsche Post Dax30 Inverse Head and Shoulders 1h. EW CycleStock looks like it's finishing wave 1 of wave 3 of a higher degree wave 3, possibly forming and finishing an inverse head and shoulders formation with the start of the third of the third of the third (wave).
Where is Germany Going?Disappointing German Manufacturing figures paint a very concerning picture for Europe's largest economy. Posting a 5.9% drop in foreign demand for German products in June, Manufacturing data is responding to Trade War speculation and Trump's proposed tariffs. Will this spill over into other Eurozone markets? More importantly where is the German economy headed in the next 6 months? Trading Forex / CFDs is High Risk.
DE30EUR Bounced Off Support, Potential Rise!DE30EUR has bounced off its support at 12501 (76.4% & 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support) where it could potentially rise to its resistance at 12889 (100% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance).
Stochastic (55, 5, 3) bounced off its support at 3.6% where a corresponding rise could occur.
The Italian narrative is creating a buying opportunity for DAXI posted a video this morning with thoughts regarding the Euro and the narrative of a crisis being premature at best! Inflation numbers came out for Germany this afternoon at 0.6% versus expectations of 0.3%. Year on year we are at 2.2% which is far above last months 1.6% and above expectations of 2%. On that news we should see the euro strengthen and given the EU is a net importer econ activity should rise in tandem!
Siemens AG putting in the last leg of a major cycleWhen blue-chip large-cap stocks complete cycles, they are often "canaries in the coal mine" for the entire index they're part of. German public market investors should invest cautiously going forward, since a major market correction is likely to occur this year.
DAX strong enough to keep rising?As we see, DAX already broke the channel resistance but seems to be preparing for consolidation zone. Still unclear. Movement too close to the starting point, so slightly bullish, but no longer out of risk, so at any time we can see a completely different scenario.
It is completely out of mind that the world is being ruled through twitter for these days.
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The pair has overcome the lower level of supportJudging by the majority of technical indicators, we have seen a downward trend. And the published data from Germany, based on this statistics, had been worse than expected.
Considering that our pair has broken through the resistance level, its further target is likely to be the level of 1.22 and 1.2170.
The trend indicator RSI is directed downwards, and Stochastic is trying to go into the oversold zone and also points to the sale. Also, when drawing MA (20), we can observe that at this level (4-hour chart) there is a resistance level. Therefore, we advice to occupy short positions and go on the turn, only in case of overcoming the moving average.
bitcoin - did we have a bottom? 30.03.2018bitcoin - did we have a bottom? 30.03.2018
we see a little bounce at the 7000$ mark.
we need more volume to break out over 8000$.
stay safe, at fridays they often take out more money!
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bitcoin - finden wir heute einen boden? 30.03.2018
aktuell hält der chart seine 7000$, zeigt aber potential übers wochenende die 6000$ zu erreichen!
Wir benötigen mehr Volumen um über die Widerstände bei 8000$ auszubrechen.
stay safe, freitags realisieren viele trader ihre Gewinne was zu weiteren abverkäufen führen kann!
BMW make it or break it After the big hummer for german auto industry last year, we escaped downtrend. The recovery however is shaky and for the better part of the year we were under mid of the pitchform.
Earnings might help BMW above the redline or break below the pitchfork range. Keeping an eye on general DAX preformance too.
Good luck and happy trading.