GER30If dax breaks the trend line (9500) suggest a sell all the way down to 9000 and below, however more likely scenario it bouncing up the trend line to 10,000+
Germany
An Attempt to Decipher Ger30I do not know what will eventually happen,But until then, staying the OODA Loop I've tried to take pulse of the chart.
The bullish intentions have been made clear. Lets see which setups plays out eventually.
Would have been stronger if this close was above the large red candle on left. (off by some 40pips)
Hence this keeps the options of deep retrace very likely.
Especially for next leg up to Bollinger mid.(34 MA) which may meet price at the 10000 by then.
This down move likely to be to
- Retest of trendline break
- Retest of MA's 10
- 30-50% retrace of last 3 bulls weeks
- Test yellow resistance turned support zone.
One of the few Possibilities for coming years - GER30I just realized i had posted this chart as private 2days ago. Wish they have a convert function. :) Hey ho.. here is the progress since then. Still valid.
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We don't fully know which of the fundamentals news would be used to drive this up and then down.
However, IF there happens to be such news events, this could be a set of potential price action movement in near future.
This charts is just for reference and will be interesting to see how the market actually moves in coming months and years.
Price action behavior at 10800-11000 will eventually indicate if this full set of move will occur in this fashion.
Though a possibility,At the moment, it would be too early to project the third push with a degree of certainty.
Update status
DAX30, shorting setup!DAX30 is about to hit a resistance level that previously got double topped+the current bearish trend line.
Chances are high that it will not break 9560-ish level. Thus I would see it a very good and relatively safe opportunity to go short on this one!
Safe and successful trading!
RED Support vs GREEN resistanceIMO that RED line should hold for another attempt to penetrate the GREEN channel.
Its a minimum requirement for ongoing bullish trend and for penetration.
Potential DAX trade for tomorrowApproaching the apex of the symmetrical triangle drawn here. I am hoping for a break out to the downside at point 7. I would then expect a pullback at previous structure, and then have a main profit target at strong levels of previous structure.
The upward break at point 6 is also potential for a small trade.
DAX Daily - BearishThe DAX30 index is moving in a descending wedge, which is a bearish formation. We can see that the market respects the formation, in which an overshoot of the upper trendline resulteted in an overshoot in the ABCD move (Which then hit the support line). We have a major ABCD move going in bearish direction down to 8350 and combined with the formation, it would be fair to guess we should be going down.
We therefore have 3. scenarios.
1) We rally up to the 10400 area, before sellers slams the price down through 9300 and all the way to 8350.
2) Buyers rally the market up over the upper trendline, where a likely pullback will occur shortly afterwards, which will, it held, result in a bullish market.
3) We bounce some more inside the formation before 1 or 2 happens.
USDJPY 3,2,1...GO!At first the MA200 and the EMA 50, then the strong resistance at 121.5 is finally broken after 2 close timed touches and successfully tested in a Bounce Back above. The Fibo is speaking a clear Language too. So the Price had enough Time (since late august) between ~121.5 and ~118.5 to collect some new Power for another long journey up. At least till the 1618 Line in the Chart is reached, but i want to make sure i trigger my T/P, so i orientate on the Blue drawn Trendline at the Top. We enter at 122.200 because i see Powerful Heikin Ashi Bars and i want to be in a safe distance to 121.5, so i can sleep Good at Night :D Possibly we have to expect a correction in the area around ~123.0, but i dont think it goes much deeper then 122 and turns back in right direction. Even if that happens we have enough air to breathe until we see the S/L at 121.184.
Dax - 4th wave bounce finally over?The reaction post FED was a bit unexpected, at least for me. All indices ramped up (dax not so much actually) and then reversed with conviction.
The big question now is - what's next? Is this choppy 4th wave finally over? A look at the daily provides some clues. The peak of the bounce was just above the 50% Fib retrace, while the decline from there looks like only 3 waves so far. If this decline turns impulsive (5 waves) then we will be able to say with more certainty that the 4th might be over. If not - it could be yet another a-b-c before a new thrust to the upper end of the range.
The first wave down from the peak of the bounce sits at 10074. If that is not overlapped by the next bounce - the 4th is over.
The good news going forward is - the DAX tools from mcm pointed out this crash extremely well. They showed impulses down on all time frames starting in the area 10100-10200. Actually this is what they were designed for - to help navigate a coming bear market. Which seems to be here already. For any questions on that please email me at alex@mcm-ct.com.
Good luck out there!
Resume of downtrend - 2nd partAs previously warned, once the 1st TL was broken the 2nd one comes up fast.
Down trend looks back, but this is still a chop zone, so risk management must be paramount. Choppy 4th waves can chop a lot of accounts.
GL to your trades!
Short DAXM- showing loss of momentum, bearish candle couple months back, few pin bars since then.
W - LL LH rejected by 8ema, respecting channel
D- respected 61.8 fib level which was in con with top of channel and 3rd TL touch also lovely PA on daily.
target is 127 ext buffer 10530 which is in confluence with bottom of channel and also 61.8 fib level on daily from swing low to swing high.
Dax at key supportMy previous bullish bias was negated by the break of of the TL, I am short from the retest at 11466 target 1 11200, watching price careful, as this is key support, if it breaches I will be targeting the next level at 10600.
DAX Bullish biasWe are starting to see Dax slowly recover from its selloff from 12.4k. Target 1 which I posted on a previous chart was hit to the T. Currently price is consolidating within the box range, Target 2 still valid only if Inner TL holds. Expecting it will.
The primary TL is drawn from the previous years October selloff and represents strong support, if it holds I'm aiming for 13200, if it breaks expect a big sell off with first target at 11200 followed by a correction to 10000.
If you haven't noticed Dax is correlating strongly with EU at the moment, and whether or not the Primary TL holds or breaks could well be determined by the direction of the Euro and the US Dollar. Weak Euro; Dax bounces off of TL and moves to higher highs, strong Euro The TL breaks and Dax has a further correction.
The key area for me is obviously the Primary TL, I will be using EU analysis as an added confluence if and when price arrives near the TL, to help decide on a position.
German Dax - Steep parabola unsustainable, Pullback imminent!!!The Dax steep incline is looking to be losing some steam and the Elliott Wave structure suggests that we may have a pullback consolidation before printing a new high. ECB press conference today could trigger some profit taking in Germany's premier Index. A new whipsaw high may be probable as well, but likely to be sold into. Favoring the pullback short term.
DAX 4 HOUR LONGDAX IN A NICE UPTREND BUT WE'VE RECENTLY STALLED CAUSING THE DAX TO CONSOLIDATE FOR ABOUT A WEEK. WE'VE MANAGED TO BREAK OUT OF THIS CONSOLIDATION CAUSING THE TREND TO CONTINUE. PRICE IS NOW PULLING BACK TO A LEVEL WHERE THERE'S GOING TO BE BUYING INTEREST. TARGET AT 12500 WITH STOPS AT 11974
GER30 at resistance zone (long-term)Hi Traders,
I just closed all my long term longs on $GER30 as I think we are in a great place to reverse or correct for a long time. As we can see on the graphs, waves with equal legs and we just completed 5 waves up. Also, RSI at trend line resistance. If I see anything bearish on 4hr, I might try to short in few days.
Thanks!
Thiago Duarte
thiago@duarteinvestmentgroup.com
@thiagotrader
ITALY vs GERMANY - SPREAD AT THE HIGHEST EVER - STOCKS... "when they tell you that the Spread with Germany is at its lowest ever not believe... this is the only one that is important"...
01/01/2002 - 01/08/2009 : Spread vs DAX FTSE MIB lows . Divergence contained
01/08/2009 - 01/12/2014: BOOM BREAKS Spread between DAX and FTSE MIB . After 2000 days DAX " Overperforming " FTSE MIB approximately 130% since 2002 ( euro entry)
01/12/2014 - 13/04/2015: Stocks "fee" the ECB QE . Spread vs DAX FTSE MIB at the highest ever. DAX " Overperforming " FTSE MIB 167% since 2002 ( euro entry)
EURO IS GERMAN RULES
1008-1012 to watch on GER30/DAX30Hi Traders,
As I posted just few minutes ago, I expect and hope to see one more high coming into play before we see him going lower. Looking this daily chart, we can see that we are in a very strong resistance zone, BUT I think that we can make a new high, scare a lot of traders and then reverse lower. This is what I expect and I will trade this (if he makes new high) with a very small risk.
So keep watching: 1008 to 1012.
Good luck!
Thiago Duarte
thiago@duarteinvestmentgroup.com
@thiagotrader
