DAX Monthly AnalysisHi dear traders
despite of fundamental i think it is approaching the first resistance and breaking it strongly will lead to approaching next resistance (Over 15000)
Germany
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DAX - how to catch the rabbit. Hi,
If you look on the main course of mass media - they will not tell you the truth. They say that DAX is oversold and the pattern right now is bearish. RGR - pattern. Lot of people think that there will be a head with shoulders pattern. I suppose that is false - bias point of view.
I can only suppose that if euro is weak, dax is weak. Right now EURUSD is testing 1.07 - high low of the tunel and right now we have a moment of the bullish divergence on DXY - dollar is rising.
But it is only for a while.
I suppose that EURUSD did not end it bullish run and we will see another run to the 1.12 and then you will see that DAX will go up. There are lot of positive signs in economy of German that stock market will move up.
I suppose that we have first wave of Elliot pattern - DAX - point 14500 to 14000 points - first run stop. Second wave you got 14000 - 15400 points - then 15000 points is the support level. Middle of March 2023 there will be testing of this point. Right now there is a channel ahead of us. 15400 - 15000 - there will be testing field. Look on the structure of the patterns in from march 2021 - November 2021 - this is a big pattern that must be tested and must be moved up. It cannot go down because EURUSD is still on the down level - 1.07 it is very low. It is testing support. Then next move is 1.12. High level of EURUSD is 1.50 - 1.64. We need I suppose minimum 2 - 3 years to go there.
Give you time and do not try to catch a short CFD contracts. There will be lot of up side down and lot of play of big players to mislead lot of people.
There are many traders on internet that says - DAX is moving down - it is not a true.
I suppose that DAX will have new historical hills on the top and you will see like dax goes up. This index is still interesting and still like to move up and down.
The main point is that if you have a cycle of long waves. Right now we are in the beginning of the wave started in the September 2022. There is a planty of time. I suppose that first stop will be a round - August 2023 r. or maybe September 2023 r.
Look on the banks and STOXX Banks index - it is still moving up with some correction but banks are the main point in this game. No body tells this in mass media. Banks will have a very good results soon and they are still developing like french banks that looks for investments in Africa.
Look on Credit Agricol - France Bank. It is going very good or Italy UniCredit.
EUR/JPY - SHORT; Geopolitics matters - Center stage.Given the inevitability of;
1) An abject Chinese population collapse - already under way -, necessitating the consequent *** massive DEurbanization, DEindustrialization *** (leaving in its wake ~800 million subsistence "gardeners" - No, not even farms, in the traditional sense of scale!);
2) Japan having *** the only other (beside the US) long range Navy *** capable to protect shipping/supply lines, anywhere on the globe; (While China couldn't defend it's own coast line, if push came to shove. All that The "Chinese Menace" propaganda is laughable, at best. China is already dead, it just hasn't rolled over, yet, fully.)
3) The EU's obvious, ongoing Hara Kiri (the kind that would fill every samurai with envy), the demise of the Euro is a foregone conclusion. (How long for total EU disintegration?? ... A) Most likely measured in a couple years; B) It is well under way!.
4) Germany's full and unmitigated retreat from a collapsed Chinese market - the US filling the vacuum in every imaginable corner on the globe;
5) Japan being *** the only other (alongside Taiwan, S. Korea and the US) precision manufacturer of high-technology, of any scale ***;
6) ...
...
12) ...
There are at least a dozen existential reasons - already well within grasp! - all of which will leave Japan likely the only industrial power standing in Asia, while Germany (as is the whole of Europe) will be forced to backtrack to the '60s. - Not to the 1960s, no ... to the 1860s!
The technicals are also favorable to start shorting this pair from here, ... on and on ... onto forever.
p.s. The rise of France in Europe and Japan's in Asia - relative to their current industrial and geopolitical pull- is all but a foregone conclusion.
France being the "youngest" industrial and agricultural power in the EU while Japan, having survived - so far - their own demographic apocalypse, will have ring side seats to revel in the total and abject Chinese collapse. Germany also "only" lacks any and all domestic energy or food resources (except Sauerkraut), while also beset with a demographic apocalypse that is about to hit its full stride.
DAX Weekly Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023 DAX Weekly Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023
Based on the data from VDAX we can see that currently the IV for this week is at 18.97%, equal to last week.
This can be translated in +/- 2.63% weekly movement from the open of the candle, which makes the next top/bot channel
TOP: 15466
BOT: 14673
The probability to break this channel(aka the close of the weekly is going to end up either above/below this channel) is at
79% with the last 20 years of data
89% with data since 2022
From the technical rating analysis point of view we can deduct the next information:
Currently there is a :
73% to touch the previous weekly high
26% to touch the previous weekly low
At the same time if we are going to take a look at the moving average rating for different timeframes we can see :
4H Timeframe: -13% Bearish Trend
D Timeframe: +66% Bullish Trend
W Timeframe: +80% Bullish Trend
Lastly on average, based on the current percentile, we can expect that our asset is going to move:
1.87% from the open to the close candle for the bullish scenario
2.37% from the open to the close candle for the bearish scenario
SHORT DAX - 14500 NEXTShorting $DAX from 15,000 technically looks a good price, target is 14500.
Scholz will announce tanks delivery to Ukraine today, Russia's response will certainly hit Germany's energy sector for punishment.
DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 9-13 Jan 2023 DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 9-13 Jan 2023
We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is 2.85%
With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 1st percentile.
Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:
*For calculations, I am using the data since 2022*
Bullish: 1.87% movement
Bearish: 2.37% movement
At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,
meaning that there is a 17.7% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel:
TOP: 15095
BOT: 14218
Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is :
73% probability we are going to touch previous weekly high(already done)
26.5% probability we are going to touch previous weekly low
Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from
Daily timeframe indicates 80% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
Weekly timeframe indicates 93.33% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
Monthly timeframe indicates 93.33% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
🇩🇪 DE40 Next Rising Wave 🇩🇪🇩🇪 DE40 Next Rising Wave.
🇩🇪 Nearest strong support zone: level 0.618 fibo of the entire downward wave, around 14593.
🇩🇪 Nearest strong resistance zone: level 0.786 fibo of the entire downward wave, around 15348.
🇩🇪 Technical environment:
- Moving averages: Uptrend
- MACD: Uptrend
- RSI: Uptrend
🇩🇪 Price action: the DAX in December scored a correction of about 7% after which it steadily held the area around 14000. In the last week, a breakout after the accumulation began and we are currently at the height of the recent local peaks, looking at the size of the candles and the breakout formation, the way to the area around the recent resistance zones looks open.
🇩🇪 The scenario I'm playing out is a continuation of growth to the vicinity of the nearest strong resistance zone. I don't exclude the possibility of changing the scenario if the market situation changes abruptly. I'm aware of the possibility of a correction at any time, this should be taken into account, If the outlook changes I will publish a post with an update, so I encourage you to actively follow the profile and read the description carefully.
🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post then I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
BASF: Big Time Move!With the last couple of impulses, we can now assume that the following movements will bring the course above the 57.06€-mark. Afterwards, we expect the price to produce more significant downward trends. Falling below 41€, however, would mean that the alternatice scenario, currently equipped with a 40% chance, will be activated, pulling us directly down towards new lows.
De40, sell signalAfter breaking out of the drawn channel (red lines), the price goes down.
I expect further declines.
TP around 13700.
GG
P.S.
This is not financial advice of course, just my idea.
DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 19-23 Dec 2022DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 19-23 Dec 2022
We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 3%, DOWN from 3.17% from last week
With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 51th percentile.
Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:
Bullish: 1.87% movement
Bearish: 2.43% movement
At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,
meaning that there is a 17.9% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel:
TOP: 14375
BOT: 13493
Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is :
35% probability we are going to touch previous high 14681
65% probability we are going to touch previous low 13812
Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from
Weekly timeframe indicates 66% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
Daily timeframe indicates 0% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
4H timeframe indicates -53% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
Germany30 Technical AnalysisHello traders!
Europe and most dominant economies of it such as England, Germany and France are under fire but regardless good news from USA have eased the situation and some pressure.
It reasonable to buy some of the positions on retest of recent support levels such as a historic 1W timeframe- 13602 / 13011. Bearish trend has been stopped and looking for more upside in the upcoming weeks.
Like and subscribe if you agree and you want to discuss the ideas all together.
DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022 DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022
We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 2.82%, DOWN from 2.9% last week according to DVOL data
With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 24th percentile,
while according to VDAX, we are on 8th percentile.
Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:
Bullish: 1.87% movement
Bearish: 2.4% movement
At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,
meaning that there is a 17.9% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel:
TOP: 14714
BOT: 13886
Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is :
35% probability we are going to touch previous high 14500
66% probability we are going to touch previous low 14200
Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from
Weekly timeframe indicates 66% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
Daily timeframe indicates 40% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
4H timeframe indicates 13% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022 DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022
We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 2.82%, down from 2.98% last week according to VDAX data
With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 1st percentile, while according to VDAX, we are on 1th percentile.
Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:
Bullish: 1.94% movement
Bearish: 2.38% movement
At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,
meaning that there is a 17.9% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel:
TOP: 14920
BOT: 14050
Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is :
75% probability we are going to touch previous high of 14600
25% probability we are going to touch previous low of 14333
Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from
Weekly timeframe indicates 66% bullish trend
Daily timeframe indicates 80% bullish trend
4H timeframe indicates 66.6% bullish trend
Mercedes Benz: They see me rollin' 🚨 Mercedes Benz is back on track and working its way up to get to the green target zone between 67.31€ and 74.77€ to complete green wave . Thereafter, we expect the course to drop into a superior correction below the support line at 56.52€.
DAX Volatility Analysis 21-25 Nov 2022 DAX Volatility Analysis 21-25 Nov 2022
We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 3.08%, raising from 3.07% of last week , according to VDAX data
(DAX Volatility Index)
With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 1th percentile, while according to VDAX, we are on 4th percentile.
Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:
Bullish: 2.05% movement
Bearish: 2.38% movement
At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,
meaning that there is a 21.1% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel:
TOP: 14837
BOT: 13953
Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is :
27% probability we are going to touch previous low of 14150
73% probability we are going to touch previous high of 14450
Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently 67% of the weekly moving averages are in a bullish trend, and
a combination of moving averages and oscillators are in 37% bullish stance
German stock index. Europe.According ewt expanding triangle via $DEU40 should plunge lower than lows of 1932 and 1945
in next 70 years.
DAX 1hour : 2 scenario possible , we have open gap in downfor buy wait for 14270 area and buy on gap and hold it 3-4 day
if you have old sell, you must close all or hedge them in gap
upper target is 14555 then 14800
keep monitor AC indicator on 4hourchart, it is full green now ,if high not break it has sell signal
strongly advice 90% looking for buy in deep above 14000
good luck
dax40 sellmarket direction ;downtrend htf
inside supply zone dax started to go from uptrend to distribution phase on ltf
price creating new lows
enter at lower high
The DAX could retrace further from its ‘bull market’ thresholdThe DAX entered a technical bull market on Tuesday by closing just over 20% higher from its September low. I have lost count the amount of times I have seen a market pull back from the 20% threshold (which is based on no logic that I can see, other than being a nice round number) – so that is just the first clue that the DAX could pull back further.
But we also saw two Doji candles leading into the high, prices were rising on lower volume, and a bearish divergence has formed on the stochastic oscillator. Therefore, the bias is for a retracement towards the 14,000 area whilst prices remains beneath 14,440. At which point we can re-evaluate its potential for a move up to the 14,709 high. A break above this week’s high assumes bullish continuation.
DAX: Push itIt's not a struggle for the German index! The DAX index used all its willpower to find its way up and pushed all the way to climb above the resistance at 13 970 points. We're currently observing an upwards slope that should steadily move into the pink zone between 14 346 - 14 687 points. As soon as the blue wave completes its movement, the trend should turn into a downwards slope heading to the resistance at 13 970 points. If the DAX can't keep its upwards trend going, there's a 35% chance for the trend to cross the support at 13 036 and drop below 11 829 points into the green zone. We'll keep you posted on whether the DAX can keep up with its hard work or if it slams on the brakes.
DAX Big MA200 hit but needs +14000 to avoid new selloffBig bullish news for DAX yesterday as it hit the 1D MA200 for the first time since February 2nd. Even though it has also broken above the Lower High Resistance of the Bear Market since October 27th, there is one pattern remaining which if repeated, can cause a new selloff.
That is the April Cup pattern which after it failed to break its Resistance, it caused a massive selloff. The level for DAX to beat in order to cancel this is 14000, which just so happens to be near the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. Otherwise we can visit the September low again where the 1W MA500 will be waiting. The weekly RSI can offer a fair estimate of what could happen next, bullish above its Higher Highs Resistance and bearish below it.
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InvestMate|DAX Time to fall🇩🇪 DAX Time to fall
🇩🇪 Looking at the last few weeks on the dax, we see quite a bit of unwinding after new lows.
🇩🇪 The dax has already rallied more than 15.40% from its lows
🇩🇪 In my last post where I perfectly predicted the correction that took place last week.
🇩🇪 It was followed by a breakout to new highs but I believe that the correction potential has not yet been fully exhausted.
🇩🇪 It is unusual in a serious long-term downtrend for the price to just keep going higher and higher from a new low.
🇩🇪 Sooner or later a correction comes.
🇩🇪 Is the 13600 level the ideal time for a correction?
🇩🇪 Definitely highly likely in my opinion.
🇩🇪 My assumption is confirmed by the fact that we are in a place where the price has already reversed direction once in the past and that it is one of the more important fibo levels 0.382 of the whole downward wave.
🇩🇪 The correction targets will be 2 levels, one more likely and the other a little less likely
These are the levels 0.382 and 0.5 of the current upward impulse. These are places where the price has found support many times in the past
🇩🇪This is a long-term scenario, I do not even exclude breaking out even higher before the decline.
🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
