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Europe&Japan to perform better than USA from now on, 1-GermanyComparision of "DAX in USD dollars" to "SPX". I am publishing the same for all (please see my other analysis): Germany, UK, France, Italy, Japan... I ignore all the fundamentals and just make technical analysis. Fall of EUR&GBP&JPY and their stock market's negative divergence compared to USA (SPX) is about to end, I believe. Important: This doesn't mean that the equities&indices are going to rise from now on. My analysis only says: Europe&Japan will perform better than USA. Just because they are very cheap.
TVC:DEU40Long
by skykhan
2
DAX respecting diagonal supportThis is Germany's stock market index, one of the strongest economies in Europe. The index consists of the 40 largest companies listed in Frankfurt Stock Exchange. On the monthly chart we have the red diagonal line, which has been a support since the beginning, as shown in the circles. We also have the middle yellow line, which has been tested 11 times as a support. In the times when the line was 'respected', I put the green number. When the line was broken, I put the red number. Will it break down this time? Cyclically, the price reaches the red line in the month of March. So if this periodicity continues, the price would reach this line in March 2023. Or if it happens equal to 2011, at least it would come close in September this year. At least in the short term, the scenario does not seem to be the best, and this is true for all markets. The monthly MACD is pointing down, which is not a good sign. But just because something happened in the past doesn't necessarily happen in the future. This is just a prediction and a question.
XETR:DAX
by andre_007
1
German Bund yields: secular reversalGerman Bund yields ( DE10Y ) are in the midst of a secular trend reversal after the breakout of both the 200-month moving average and a 40-year descending trend line. Yields on the 10-year Bund have never gone over the 200-mma mark before. The next barrier is the psychological threshold of 2%, which coincides with the September 2013 highs and 23.6% of the Fibonacci retracement level (all-time highs of 1981 to all-time lows of 2020). Breaking above 2% could then see the 3.7-3.8% yield as target (2009 highs and 38.2% Fibonacci). The ECB's forthcoming interest-rate hikes and Germany's rising inflation trend, which reached 7.9% in August, the highest level since German reunification, can exert substantial upward pressure on Bund yields in the coming months. In particular, the market may begin factoring in a greater volume of Bund emissions from the German state as a means of financing an expanding deficit caused by energy subsidies. The latest €65bn package is worth more than 3% of the German's GDP. With the ECB expected to reduce (or completely stop) government bond purchases, the German government would need to find buyers who demand higher yields due to rising interest rates and inflation. The current real rate of Bunds (the difference between the nominal and inflationary rates) is -6%, which is close to the lowest level ever. Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
TVC:DE10Y
by Capitalcom
High Energy Prices a Threat to German industry 🥨🦝German industry weakens as high energy prices are leaving their mark on production costs. German industry is clearly suffering from disrupted supply chains on the back of the war in Ukraine, the aftermath of pre-summer lockdowns in China, low water levels in the main rivers and increasingly, higher energy prices. The statistical office released additional data showing that production in the energy-intensive industrial segments declined by more than the broader industry (-1.9% year-on-year). Production in this area has dropped by 6.9% since February 2022. For Germany’s industrial backbone, small and medium-sized enterprises, higher energy prices look like a ticking time bomb. With ongoing pressure on consumers’ disposable incomes, companies’ pricing power is fading. In this regard, it is remarkable that the government’s third relief package presented on Sunday provided only very limited support for this segment of the economy. Looking ahead, shrinking order books since the start of the Ukraine war, the well-known supply chain problems (both international and domestic) plus high uncertainty, high energy and commodity prices and potential energy supply disruptions will not make life any easier. Judging from the first macro data for the third quarter, the German economy has not fallen off a cliff at the start of the third quarter but is rather sliding into recession. One thing that could reverse the course of a major correction could only be the end of the crisis/war in Ukraine. For the time being that scenario is not likely while the new Prime minister in the UK may add to the worries. Will share more thoughts on this in the next coming days. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR
XETR:DAXShort
by FX_Professor
3
Joe Gun2Head Trade - Rout to continue?Trade Idea: Selling DAX Reasoning: Global indices underpressure Entry Level: 12673 Take Profit Level: 12396 Stop Loss: 12787 Risk/Reward: 2.43:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
FOREXCOM:GER40Short
by Signal_Centre
The Price of Freedom: NS2 pipeline cf German base energy pricesThe Nord Stream 2 runs through the Baltic Sea from the St Petersburg region (Russia) to Baltic Coast in north-east Germany. It can transport 55 billion cubic metres of gas per year from Russia to Germany, enough to power 26 million homes for a year. Europe's total consumption of Russian gas per year is approximately 200 billion cubic metres per year, which accounts for about 40% to 50% of Europe's energy consumption. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline completely bypasses Ukraine. Prior to the war Ukraine was earning approximately $1.2 billion per year in gas transit fees from Russia to the EU through its territory. Construction of the pipeline began in 2016. In Jan 2019 US ambassador to Germany threatens sanctions on companies participating in Nordstream 2 construction. In December 2019 these sanctions are passed into law. Merkle labels these sanctions when they passed as US interference in EU internal affairs. July 2020 NY Times article provides a good explanation of the tensions between the USA and Germany over the opening of the Nordstream 2 pipeline : www.nytimes.com Pipeline construction was completed in September 2021, but Germany did not approve gas to start flowing. In the same month, NATO and Ukraine conduct joint military exercises. In December 2021 Russia threatens military action in Ukraine. Things escalated, as we all now know. Shortly after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in late Feb 2022, Germany (finally) suspends the Nordsteram 2 pipeline. German energy base energy prices per megawatt hour have gone from 50 euro since the announcement of US sanctions on Nordstream 2 in 2019, to 150 euro in September 2021 when Ukraine and Nato conducted joint military exercises, to 300 euro after Germany announces in August in has no plans to open Nordstream 2. Contract at the time of this writing is at 420 euro, up 8x since the US announced sanctions on Nordstream 2 in Dec 2019. In April 2022 when it became clear to me that NATO was willing to put its populations under extreme energy duress and significant security duress to retaliate against Russia's invasion of Ukraine, I placed bets on unlisted US defense companies. In retrospect, having caught up on the history of the Nordstream 2 pipeline conflict, with the US and Ukraine aligned against Russia and Germany caught in the middle, as well as the sheer scale of the EU's dependence on Russian gas, the cleaner bet would have been on German base energy prices. The 12 month energy contract is actually trading at 1,000 euro. I.e. the 12 month spot / futures basis is telling us that even though prices are up 8x from Dec 2019, this is about to get far far worse. The question now is how much pain can EU citizens bear before they say enough is enough and cut a deal with Russia. At the moment they are sustaining a huge amount of pain and and still holding up, they have probably surprised Russia (and themselves) with their willingness to bear the pain. However, winter is coming and it's not going to be pretty. It's possible the EU is willing to (or has no choice but to) completely obliterate its economy to wean itself off from Russian gas rather than cut a deal with Russia. If that's the case we can expect energy prices to remain high, perhaps even pump further At some point there will be enough incentive though for supply to flow from US, maybe Africa, and arrest the rise in prices. This may be coupled with US aid to Europe to cover their gas bill as European allies ask for help in continuing the economic war. It would be plausible for big aid to be forthcoming as it would essentially be taxpayer money that would essentially flow to the US energy producers, and so far the tax base in the U.S. seems supportive of continuing the war on Russia. Signs to look out for are signs that both EU and US electorates are tiring of the cost of waging this war. If these signs emerge as German baseline prices continue to rise, this might be a good time to place a short on energy prices. Any signs of Germany agreeing to start gas flows through Nordstream 2 might also be a good opportunity to place a short Of course, energy markets are highly efficient so my main concern with this strategy would be inside information or simply people closer to the national policy movements underway that might signal a fraying of resolve in maintaining the economic war on Russia, at least as it relates to energy.
NYMEX:DEB1!Short
by a_trader_anon
1
Joe Gun2Head Trade - More downside for DAX?Trade Idea: Selling DAX Reasoning: Continuation lower Entry Level: 13107 Take Profit Level: 12435 Stop Loss: 13230 Risk/Reward: 5.45:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
FOREXCOM:GER40Short
by Signal_Centre
SAP SE bearish scenario:The technical figure Pennant can be found in the daily chart in the German company SAP SE (SAP.de). SAP SE is a German multinational software company. It develops enterprise software to manage business operations and customer relations. The company is the world's leading enterprise resource planning (ERP) software vendor. SAP is the largest non-American software company by revenue, the world's third-largest publicly traded software company by revenue, and the second largest German company by market capitalization. The Pennant has broken through the support line on 17/08/2022, if the price holds below this level, you can have a possible bearish price movement with a forecast for the next 6 days towards 89.85 EUR. Your stop-loss order, according to experts, should be placed at 94.47 EUR if you decide to enter this position. SAP SE has announced the acquisition of Askdata for an undisclosed amount to tap the growing demand for data and analytics solutions. Per a research from Fortune Business Insights, the global big data analytics market is projected to reach $655.5 billion by 2029, at a CAGR of 13.4% from 2022 to 2029. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
XETR:SAPShort
by legacyFXofficial
DAX Potential for Bullish Continuation| 16th August 2022On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku indicator and within the ascending channel , we have a bullish bias that price will rise from buy entry at 13683.48 where the pullback support is to the take profit at 14227. 40 in line with 100% fibonacci projection and 78.6% fibonacci retracement . Alternatively, price could break entry structure and drop to stop loss at 13378.95 where the overlap support, -27.2% fibonacci expansion and 100% fibonacci projection are. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
XETR:DAXLong
by FXCM
DAX Index, needs some correction. GER30Hello my friends, This is an update of previous analysis (blow link). Everything is clear on the chart for you like always. We have a bullish trend and price keeps it and needs some correction for now to 13320, but If the price loose the support zone , the sell position will be activated in the direction of the arrow. So monitor the price's action in the circles. Good luck. If you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow me for next analysis :) Write your comment and opinion below to me
FX:GER30Short
by ArashBanakar
1
Germany trade recorded the first deficit since 1991EUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔼 AUD/USD 🔼 USD/CAD 🔽 XAU ▶️ WTI 🔼 With inflation casting a shadow over the global economy, higher goods prices have led to a trade deficit of one billion euros in Germany, the first since 1991. The reading surprised investors since they were expecting a trade surplus of 2.7 billion euros in May. Despite the news, the euro managed to close with minor gains against the US dollar at 1.0424, with a high of 1.0461. Yet another reminder that the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its key interest rate this afternoon, with a 50 basis point rate hike forecast. Meanwhile, Australia Retail Sales has increased by 0.9%, same as last month. After retreating from 0.6886, the AUD/USD pair closed at 0.6864. As the US goes on holiday, USD/CAD recovered from a low of 1.2838, then closed with a loss at 1.2859. GBP/USD slightly moved up to 1.2105, with a high of 1.2164. Gold futures had a quiet trading session, currently at $1,812.10 an ounce. WTI crude futures returned to $110 level, since the strike among Norwegian offshore workers is likely to reduce daily crude oil output by 89,000 barrels, a tightened supply has firmly held oil prices at 110.25 with little change. More information on Mitrade website.
NASDAQ:XAU
by Mitrade_official
German inflation rate falls to 7.6 percent, BTC pump?Bottom found? US markets likely to follow EU markets very soon. I suppose to see BTC to hold the 20k$ for atleast short-term. With upcoming inflation data for july, I see a direct correlation that US inflation data will also be promising, leading to a recovery to atleast 24-25k$ in short-term. Altough rising OIL prices and commodity could mid-term again crush this inflation data. This is not an investment advise, and not a trading recommendation for BTC! always do your own research.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Lobotto
5