Germany30
DAX - impulsive decline, picture looks increasingly bearishIt's been a while since I updated the long term count.
My intermediate bearish view was confirmed in the mean time with DAX putting in a spike above the previously indicated magenta TL from the ATH, however quickly losing momentum and failing also to keep above the 200d MA. The decline from ATH was very choppy, with waves which were difficult to count, so there is a possibility that this big wave is all just a corrective wave 4 in the form of a double 3 (see the blue count - A-B-C, then the red A-B-C up, and now could be just another bigger A-B-C down). The other option is the more bearish one in which we have a nested wave down (a series of 1-2 waves, with the current wave being either a 3 or yet another serie of 1-2).
However, regardless of the bigger term picture, what is more worrying for longs is the fact that the decline off the 30th of November lower high developed into 5 waves and took out the September low, therefore cancelling the more bullish counts which were based on the red C wave being a 5 waver and actually not a C wave but a 1 or a wave part of a bullish move. This means that the next bounce (which could be quite big) will most likely be a corrective wave only, so an A-B-C, which would be a nice short opp, since the following decline will take out the lows at which we will bottom these days (or maybe weeks).
On the more immediate term, it's difficult to say where we will bottom. We have already 5 waves in place, but the 5th could always extend. In any case I would use the next bounce as a short opp, rather than try to buy it.
What is most interesting is that the LT projection from mcm, nailed a very important intermediate top - the high of the red 2 from Dec 30th.
mcm-ct.com
For questions about the analysis feel free to visit the site or contact me via email at alex@mcm-ct.com.
GL to your trades!
Potential DAX trade for tomorrowApproaching the apex of the symmetrical triangle drawn here. I am hoping for a break out to the downside at point 7. I would then expect a pullback at previous structure, and then have a main profit target at strong levels of previous structure.
The upward break at point 6 is also potential for a small trade.
Short GER30 IMMEDIATELYGER30 is in an extremely bearish trend.
After a classic Head and Shoulders pattern formed, prices pushed down and broke the H&S neckline right away.
On 1 Feb, an expected pullback was completed and a very usual and huge amount of short orders were placed at 9837 after 15 mins of futures market opens, therefore I warned the traders to be cautious.
Option 1: Price go straight to 8400.
Option 2: Now -> 9300-9400 -> 9800-9900 -> 8400.
All "targets" for 10000+ or 10122 or 10400 in this correction can be treated as jokes.
Jimmy,
the full time trader,
Candle Sticks specialist,
Elliott Wave Counts specialist.
ISM PMI triple threat ?Since 2009 the ISM PMI has never hit under 49.0 3 times in a row , let see what China Manufacturing brings this Monday Feb 1 in the morning. With Iphone sales slowing and the FED meeting on Mar 16
I don't know if the PMI is anything to read into but i worry about it , if this prediction does not work then its market thinking about QE instead of the global slowdown.
DAX Daily - BearishThe DAX30 index is moving in a descending wedge, which is a bearish formation. We can see that the market respects the formation, in which an overshoot of the upper trendline resulteted in an overshoot in the ABCD move (Which then hit the support line). We have a major ABCD move going in bearish direction down to 8350 and combined with the formation, it would be fair to guess we should be going down.
We therefore have 3. scenarios.
1) We rally up to the 10400 area, before sellers slams the price down through 9300 and all the way to 8350.
2) Buyers rally the market up over the upper trendline, where a likely pullback will occur shortly afterwards, which will, it held, result in a bullish market.
3) We bounce some more inside the formation before 1 or 2 happens.
Bullish Harmonics in play - 10,300 nextThe PRZ of the Bullish Gartley in the DAX holds following FOMC.
Price finds support on the top of the PRZ and, for now, it is above the Fast SMA line for the first time in weeks.
10,300 and 10,700 are next target zones for this bullish setup.
Needs to be confirmed with bullish daily close.
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Bullish Gartley pattern - DAX Bullish Gartley pattern
Stop loss below 9400
Potential targets - 10200, 10600
DAX daily critical levelI've paused trading the DAX but can't help [ but notice it's price action on this rising trendline on the daily chart. Break below this and things will surely get interesting. At the end/top we have this triangle pattern.
DAX - GOOD TO BUY ON DIPSShorting till 0.764 fib level. This area is where consolidation occurs - as shown by the circles on the chart.
Overall trend is still bullish as long as the key pyschological support 10,000 holds. Thus why I am hedging by buying GER30 futures. Stop loss on buy positions 10,179 and 10,000.
Possible LONG positions on the daily DAX.We have two possible long positions on the INDEX:DAX .
1. If price touches the first blue area, check if there is divergence on either MACD or stoch . At the moment we can see MACD diverging from the price. If step 1 is fulfilled , continue.
2. If step is 1 fulfilled, we want to see either a double bottom or w/m pattern forming on 4H or 1H . Will demonstrate those patterns when the time comes. If step 2 is fulfilled , continue.
3. TP/SL will be set when necessary price action takes place in those areas. We will always wait for pullback no matter what. No pullback, no trade . If step 3 is fulfilled , continue.
4. Long when PRICE makes higher high . If it doesn't and instead makes lower low , abort this potential LONG and look for the next blue area.
Possible reversal near following dates: 15 des, 19 des, 24 des, 11,des
DAX - intermediate top in or just A-B-C correction?After the never ending rally finally peaked, dax had a vicious decline yesterday. Volatility was very high, almost 700 points intraday range.
The big question now is - is a more tradeable intermediate top in or not? In my opinion, the answer is yes, but we will not have confirmation until the market breaks down into an impulsive decline (5 waves). The strenght of the move yesterday points to a 3rd wave, which is why I think after the 4th wave bounce is in, the market will resume the decline and take out the lows. On the other hand, if the current bounce heads higher and overlaps the 1/A level at 11.075, that would put a dent on the more immediate downside potential.
So short term, I think the bounce could go a bit higher, ideally to around 10.950-11.000. The 50% retrace is also there (10970ish). At that point I would start looking for turn potential and the closer we get to the overlap at 11.075, the more confident I would be in building a short position.
Interesting enough, the strong decline lines up very well with the long term projection done by MCM, which points to more weakness in the next 2 weeks.
mcm-ct.com
Good luck out there!
