DAX Major bearish breakoutWe're watching the support level of 14877 very closely as it's a major overlap, 23.6% Fib retracement and a break of this level, coinciding with the ichimoku cloud bearish exit, could trigger a massive drop to the next support level at 13863.
It's also nice to see strong bearish divergence vs Stochastic suggesting we could see a big reversal upon the break of the 14877 level.
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Germany30
DAX BEARISH SCENARIO NOT OVERDAX felt 3.04% in Monday, biggest drop for the instrument after December. Investors are cautious after the failings of SVB and Signature Bank that the entire bank sector might be badly hurt from the sharp rise of interests in the last year.
On the technical front both MACD and RSI indicators are suggesting continuity of the bearish movement, with RSI below the 50 neutral line and MACD histogram deep under the zero line and keep falling.
If the current movement continues, the price might try to test levels of 14500. In the opposite scenario the price might revert back to 15410.
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DAX in a descending triangle.GER40 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 15484 (stop at 15564)
The bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart is negative for sentiment.
Daily signals for sentiment are at oversold extremes.
A higher correction is expected.
The trend of lower highs is located at 15510.
Prices expected to stall near trend line resistance.
Our profit targets will be 15284 and 15244
Resistance: 15400 / 15480 / 15500
Support: 15350 / 15300 / 15250
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
DAX SHORT OF THE YEAR I believe that we have seen the highs on the DAX for the coming 2 years, therefore I have gone full short expecting the rice to reach a new low.
DAX stalling at overbought extremes.GER40 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 15371 (stop at 15291)
Daily signals are bullish.
Intraday dips continue to attract buyers and there is no clear indication that this sequence for trading is coming to an end.
There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end.
We look for a temporary move lower.
20 1day EMA is at 15340.
Our profit targets will be 15571 and 15611
Resistance: 15553 / 15600 / 15660
Support: 15500 / 15450 / 15400
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
DAX Weekly Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023 DAX Weekly Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023
Based on the data from VDAX we can see that currently the IV for this week is at 18.97%, equal to last week.
This can be translated in +/- 2.63% weekly movement from the open of the candle, which makes the next top/bot channel
TOP: 15466
BOT: 14673
The probability to break this channel(aka the close of the weekly is going to end up either above/below this channel) is at
79% with the last 20 years of data
89% with data since 2022
From the technical rating analysis point of view we can deduct the next information:
Currently there is a :
73% to touch the previous weekly high
26% to touch the previous weekly low
At the same time if we are going to take a look at the moving average rating for different timeframes we can see :
4H Timeframe: -13% Bearish Trend
D Timeframe: +66% Bullish Trend
W Timeframe: +80% Bullish Trend
Lastly on average, based on the current percentile, we can expect that our asset is going to move:
1.87% from the open to the close candle for the bullish scenario
2.37% from the open to the close candle for the bearish scenario
PSNY: MACRO ANALYSIS / REVERSAL IMMINENT? / SQUEEZE? (UPDATE)DESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a SEMI-MACRO ANALYSIS of PSNY where I address Current Trend, Supply & Demand, RSI & MACD.
POINTS:
1. DEVIATION stands at 1.50 Points separating given SUPPLY & DEMAND POCKETS.
2. Price Action is finally finding support above the 45 EMA (BLUE LINE) while the 200 EMA (RED LINE) looks ready to go under & CONFIRM BULLISH MOMENTUM.
3. SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE FORMATION had a BULLISH start further confirming a BULLISH EXIT from trend.
4. RSI median is positioned near 50 similar to previous positioning before rally occurred.
5. MACD volume is staying within 0.18 & -0.18, a flatlined MACD is preferable since it would signify that buying and selling pressure is equal and preparing for a big move.
6. ESTIMATION for potential rally from current floor can be found on the right hand side.
IMPORTANT: PAY CLOSE ATTENTION to VOLUME and just how dramatically dead VOLUME has been since the 27th of JUNE 2022. Can have something to do with how much of PSNY shares are traded in DARK POOLS. This can in fact work out for PSNY since a slight exposure to previous levels of VOLUME can in fact result in a BULLISH REACTION for PRICE ACTION.
SCENARIO #1: In a BULLISH scenario price action would have to break past 7 points to validate setup and give way for price action to continue breathing.
SCENARIO #2: In a BEARISH scenario if price action is to break below 5.50 current setup would be invalidated and give way to further downside or consolidation.
FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com
NASDAQ:PSNY
NASDAQ:PSNYW
DAX to stall at highs.GER40 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 15258 (stop at 15348)
We are trading at overbought extremes.
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
We look for a temporary move higher.
A lower correction is expected.
Our profit targets will be 15038 and 14988
Resistance: 15130 / 15200 / 15272
Support: 15030 / 14950 / 14900
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
DE30 says long onlyTechnically DE30 trend has reversed bullish after breaking out and printing a higher high, now looking for a good long entry price, 13333 loos juicy with an amazing RRR.
This is only valid if no major news happened.
Ger30Germ30 has reached the 15142.65
take profit. I hope this season this indices will be stronger than 2022.
DAX & S&P500 RELATIONSHIP: MACRO / SUPPLY & DEMAND / BOTTOM???DESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have included and brief macro analysis of the DAX a GERMAN equivalent exchange of the S&P500. Aside from the difference in point ratio the DAX and S&P500 have a special relationship in which they mirror one another usually with the DAX following the S&P500. Nevertheless the DAX in this case can be showing us a different perspective in what is in store for the OVERALL MARKET in the near FUTURE.
POINTS:
1. DEVIATION of 1,000 POINTS begins PLACEMENT of SUPPLY & DEMAND POCKETS at YEARS ALL TIME LOW of 12,000 POINTS.
2. Current UPTREND is at RISK of SHARP Incline that is shown by FLOOR OF CURRENT UPTREND CHANNEL.
3. 100 MA (ORANGE MA) is serving as crucial support and agrees with current uptrend along with 45 MA & 200 MA FALLING INTO PLACE .
4. 15,000 POINT RANGE IS OF CRUCIAL IMPORTANCE TO HOLD WITH CONSOLIDATION IN CURRENT DEMAND POCKET.
*IMPORTANT: RSI within an 8 HOUR TIMEFRAME has only been seen at these levels 2 TIMES in the PAST YEAR where we usually have come to see a continuation of bullish momentum for 22.5 days if we go by AVERAGES.
SCENARIO #1: BULLISH scenario would require a continuation of STEEP INCLINE SUPPORT or at the very least a CONSOLIDATION ABOVE 15,000 POINTS.
SCENARIO #2: BEARISH scenario would begin at the moment we lose 15,000 as a SUPPORT & would further continue once STEEP INCLINE TREND IS BROKEN.
FULL CHART LINK : www.tradingview.com
XETR:DAX
SP:SPX
DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 9-13 Jan 2023 DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 9-13 Jan 2023
We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is 2.85%
With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 1st percentile.
Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:
*For calculations, I am using the data since 2022*
Bullish: 1.87% movement
Bearish: 2.37% movement
At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,
meaning that there is a 17.7% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel:
TOP: 15095
BOT: 14218
Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is :
73% probability we are going to touch previous weekly high(already done)
26.5% probability we are going to touch previous weekly low
Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from
Daily timeframe indicates 80% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
Weekly timeframe indicates 93.33% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
Monthly timeframe indicates 93.33% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
US30There is a break out here that could lead to a 34755 high. The US30 has been ranging and this could be a new break out for the new year.
I hope the tech companies will be rallying strong in 2023.
DAX January 2023 Volatility Analysis DAX January 2023 Volatility Analysis
Currently the volatility for DAX is at 6.28%, up from 6.13% last month.
From the volatility current percentile we are located on 57th place, and based on this we can expect the monthly candle to make the next aprox movement:
Bullish : 5.686%
Bearish : 5.885%
With this in mind we have currently 84.1% that the market is going to stay within the next channel
TOP Limit: 14850
BOT Limit: 13135
If we are going to take a look into the previous monthly high and low points, currently there is a :
34.43% to hit the previous monthly high
57.86% to hit the previous monthly low
Lastly from the technical analysis point of view, currently
Weekly Timeframe : 40% of rating moving averages is indicating BULLISH
Monthly Timeframe : 66.67% of rating moving averages is indicating BULLISH
Sell GER30GER30 (DAX) Technical Analysis: Price currently trades within a bearish flag. I’m expecting a little push to the upside to create bearish bat/double top then a heavy drop from there. Strong bearish movement was observed last week, we’re anticipating a continuation this week.
BASF: Big Time Move!With the last couple of impulses, we can now assume that the following movements will bring the course above the 57.06€-mark. Afterwards, we expect the price to produce more significant downward trends. Falling below 41€, however, would mean that the alternatice scenario, currently equipped with a 40% chance, will be activated, pulling us directly down towards new lows.
DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 19-23 Dec 2022DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 19-23 Dec 2022
We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 3%, DOWN from 3.17% from last week
With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 51th percentile.
Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:
Bullish: 1.87% movement
Bearish: 2.43% movement
At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,
meaning that there is a 17.9% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel:
TOP: 14375
BOT: 13493
Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is :
35% probability we are going to touch previous high 14681
65% probability we are going to touch previous low 13812
Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from
Weekly timeframe indicates 66% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
Daily timeframe indicates 0% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
4H timeframe indicates -53% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
Buying DE40 at daily 20 EMA.GER40 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 14271 (stop at 14198)
Daily signals are mildly bullish.
20 1day EMA is at 14271.
We look to buy dips. Daily momentum has stalled and our bias is now neutral.
The 1 day moving average should provide support at 14271.
Our profit targets will be 14448 and 14498
Resistance: 14390 / 14450 / 14500
Support: 14300 / 14250 / 14200
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022 DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022
We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 2.82%, DOWN from 2.9% last week according to DVOL data
With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 24th percentile,
while according to VDAX, we are on 8th percentile.
Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:
Bullish: 1.87% movement
Bearish: 2.4% movement
At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,
meaning that there is a 17.9% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel:
TOP: 14714
BOT: 13886
Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is :
35% probability we are going to touch previous high 14500
66% probability we are going to touch previous low 14200
Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from
Weekly timeframe indicates 66% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
Daily timeframe indicates 40% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
4H timeframe indicates 13% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022 DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022
We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 2.82%, down from 2.98% last week according to VDAX data
With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 1st percentile, while according to VDAX, we are on 1th percentile.
Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:
Bullish: 1.94% movement
Bearish: 2.38% movement
At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,
meaning that there is a 17.9% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel:
TOP: 14920
BOT: 14050
Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is :
75% probability we are going to touch previous high of 14600
25% probability we are going to touch previous low of 14333
Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from
Weekly timeframe indicates 66% bullish trend
Daily timeframe indicates 80% bullish trend
4H timeframe indicates 66.6% bullish trend
German DAX index: Pausing for a breatherThe German Dax index rose 25% from its lows in early October, delivering nine weeks of gains and outperforming US stock indices. The bullish price action has been rather sharp for a market that had a 27% decline from its top in the first nine months of the year.
In November 2022, the Dax saw overbought RSI for the first time in over a year and the index also managed to surpass quite easily its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, as well as a significant 50% Fibonacci threshold of 2022's low to high.
As prices now meet fierce resistance in surpassing the 61.8% Fibonacci level around 14,560 points, a pullback is possible in the following weeks.
The first area of support is located at the psychological level of 14,000. This level might serve as a solid test for validating the 50% Fibonacci level breakout occurred in November.
If the Dax fails to remain above 14,000, bears may gain impetus and push the price down below 13,500 (38.2% Fibonacci and 200-day moving average).
Currently, the strong 61.8% Fibonacci level resistance dominates the upside. If prices broke over this level, the June high of 14,700 would be the next resistance. However, with two important central banks meeting in less than two weeks (Fed on the 14 and ECB on the 15), the upside room for bulls may be limited here.
DAX Weekly Forecast Analysis 28 Nov-2 Dec 2022 DAX Weekly Forecast Analysis 28 Nov-2 Dec 2022
We can see that this week, the current implied volatility is around 3.05% , down from 3.16% from last week.
According to ATR calculations, we are currently on the 6th percentile, while with VDAX we are on 1th percentile.
Based on this data, we can expect on average, the movement from open to close of the weekly candle to be :
In case of bullish - 1.99%
In case of bearish - 2.39%
With the current IV calculation, we have currently 17.9% that the close of the weekly candle is going to finish either above
or below the next channel:
TOP: 14900
BOT: 14000
At the same time, taking into consideration the high/low touch calculation from the previous values, we can expect for this week:
26% chance that we are going to touch the previous low of the weekly candle of 14300
73% chance that we are going to touch the previous high of the weekly candle of 14580
Lastly from a technical analysis point of view, currently 66% of the moving averages rating, are insinuating we are in a BULLISH trend.
