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03/24 SPX Weekly GEX Outlook, Options FlowYou can see that every expiry has shifted into a stronger bullish stance heading into Friday, with GEX exposure moving upward across the board—though total net GEX is still in negative territory, while net DEX (delta exposure) is positive. This combination points toward a likely near-term rebound this week, which makes sense after testing the 5600 range last week…. Here’s a more detailed breakdown of the key zones and likely moves this week: Bullish Target: The current uptrend could reach 5750 on its first attempt (already reached in Monday, thx bullsh :) ). If a positive gamma squeeze emerges at that level, we might see an extension to 5800 or even 5850 as a final profit-taking zone for bulls this week. HVL (Gamma Slip Zone): Placed at 5680, this threshold currently supports a low-volatility environment. A drop below 5680, however, could reignite fear and fuel bearish momentum. Put Floors & Net OI: The largest net negative open interest (OI) cluster is at 5650, with the next key level near 5600. At 5600, net DEX reads fully positive, suggesting strong buying support if the market tests that lower boundary.
SP:SPX
by TanukiTrade
Gamma Exposure Analysis SPY & VXX SPY Resistance at 570. The 570 level in SPY likely corresponds to a high gamma concentration for 0DTE (zero days to expiration) options. At this strike, market makers short gamma (i.e., net sellers of options) at this level would dynamically delta-hedge by selling SPY as the price approaches 570, creating selling pressure and resistance. Next resistance level 575. For VXX , the 48 level likely represents a put-dominated gamma zone: If market makers are net long puts, they would buy VXX as prices decline toward 48 to hedge against further downside, creating support. Next support level 46.50
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Gexvieww
[03/03] SPY GEX Analysis (Until Friday Expiration)Overall Sentiment: Currently, there’s a positive GEX sentiment, suggesting an optimistic start to the week following Friday’s bounce. However, the key Call resistance appears at 600, and it may not break on the first attempt. If optimism remains strong, there’s a chance SPY 0.09%↑ could still push above that zone after some initial back-and-forth. 🟢Upside Levels: 600–605 Zone: This is a major resistance area. Should SPY move decisively through 600/605, the next potential target could be 610. 610: This is currently the largest positive GEX zone for the week. Current option pricing suggests only about a 9% chance of closing at or above 610 by Friday, so it might require a particularly strong move to break through. 🔵 Transition Zone: Roughly 592–599. The gamma flip level is near 592, and staying above that keeps the market in a positive gamma range for now. 🔴 Downside Risk: If 592 Fails (or HVL climbing up during the week, and after that HVL fails…): A drop could accelerate toward 585, which may act as the first take-profit zone for bears. Below that, 580 could be in play if selling intensifies. Lower Support: 575 is the last strong support mentioned, but current option probabilities suggest about an 88% chance of finishing above that level, making a move below 575 less likely—though still possible given the higher put skew. 🟣Volatility & Skew: IVR (Implied Volatility Rank) is quite high on SPY, with a notable put pricing skew (around 173.1%). This heightened put skew indicates the market is pricing in faster, more volatile downward moves compared to upside.
AMEX:SPY
by TanukiTrade
1
02/26 Special GEX Outlook: NVDA Earnings, GEX LevelsNVDA Earnings Announcement 🔥 NVIDIA reports earnings today, after market close, and this release could create significant movement. Let’s dive right into the charts and see what the technicals are telling us! With earnings so close, I typically look only at the nearest expiration, which in this case is 02/28 (Friday). The implied move (IV) is around 10%, or approximately 12 points in either direction. That’s what the market has priced in for this binary event. Key Observations The price is hovering around the Transition Zone and very close to the HVL (High Volume Level) around 130–132. This suggests the market maker is trying to remain delta-neutral leading into earnings. Once the report hits, expect potential volatility on Wall Street! 🚀 GEX Levels for Friday 🔴 Bearish Scenario The bottom of the Transition Zone is at 126. If price drops below 126, the next major put support is at 120 and extends to 115 (a negative gamma squeeze zone). In other words, a breach of 126 could lead to a quick slide down to 120. 🟢Bullish Scenario Major call resistance stands at 150, with a secondary call wall at 145. Above 133 (top of the Transition Zone), calls dominate, meaning the path to 145–150 could open up if we break above the HVL. Longer-Term Perspective 📊 We’re still in an overall uptrend, but history shows that even with positive surprises on 2 out of the last 4 earnings calls, the market had already priced in those expectations—often leading to a sell-the-news reaction. I do not recommend trading right before the earnings with a binary mindset. It’s like walking into a casino and putting all your chips on red or black—it’s pure gamble! 🎰 Call pricing skew has been on a downward trend since DeepSeek (likely referencing a volatility event), indicating that call butterflies might not be as attractive on NVDA now as they were in the past few weeks. Fundamental Analysis 💡 NVIDIA is a hype stock, much like TSLA was a few years back. Its current price has factored in a lot of the future potential. Based on FastGraphs and other valuation tools, NVDA 1.44%↑ seems overpriced relative to its underlying performance. A correction might bring it closer to fair value (the “green zone”), like it did in October 2022. Until then, I’m not considering it for a 5+ year long-term investment—no matter what the short-term price action is. Conclusion & Post-Earnings Strategy 👉 We simply don’t know which direction NVDA will move after earnings. Typically, implied volatility (IV) expands before earnings (~90% of the time) and collapses for the nearest expiration immediately afterward. Even IV on farther-dated expirations can continue to drift lower for a week or two post-earnings. My Plan Since I haven’t opened a time spread trade, I’m focusing on post-earnings setups. If NVDA makes a huge move (breaking out of the 120–150 range), I’ll likely wait at least one more day before placing any new position to let open interest (OI) restructure. April expirations will be more interesting for me after the dust settles.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by TanukiTrade
[02/10] SPX – GEX Until the First Weekly ExpirationThe SPX opened with a huge gap-down in both the futures and CFD markets. After the previous two Fridays, there was a massive gap-down in the premarket each time. Everyone was expecting the same scenario again, but it seems the market quickly recovered from the put support at the 6000 level, and we are now steadily moving toward the positive GEX range. Although we are still in the transition zone (where it’s easy to switch between positive and negative GEX territory), we may soon reach the HVL level at 6060, which, if I had to guess, might be adjusted during today’s premarket update. The GEX levels align with the technical foundations: 🟢 6090–6100 to the upside is a bullish take-profit zone, and our purely positive GEX range is fairly narrow. If buying pressure is strong, above 6100 we could see a very strong positive gamma squeeze upward. 🔴 To the downside, “armageddon” could begin if the put support around 6010–6000, which held the sell-off this morning, fails to hold. The next target in a negative gamma squeeze could be 5950, followed by 5900. The transition range is quite wide, and the market is expecting a volatile week (though I believe that from now on it’ll expect volatility every day for the next four years...). The transition zone is sure to narrow by Friday. It’s worth paying attention to the premarket update around 6:45 AM, about three hours before the market opens! If the red zone extends very deep afterward (for example, if it’s red below the HVL level all the way to the put support at around 5950), it indicates a significant downside risk compared to any potential rally—which I don’t think will change unless we get a breakout above 6100. 🔶 So, be cautious with those bullish horns—below 6100, we can’t talk about a confirmed breakout to the upside.
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade
2
[02/03] SPX Weekly GEX OutlookSPX shifted into a strong sideways trend after recent market whipsaws, but premarket today saw a sharp sell-off. Now, let’s break down the GEX levels set for Friday’s weekly expiration (first weekly expiry). These are already reflected in today’s GEX data—check them on your indicator! COMMENT: This week, we’ve started updating our seamless GEX & options indicators before the market opens . This has been a long-standing request from users—especially 0DTE traders, who will likely benefit the most. Key GEX Levels for SPX 📍 Highest Positive Call Wall (Call Resistance): 6075 Acted as resistance last Friday, as it often does initially. 📍 Sideways Zone: 6000-6070 (Transition Zone with GAMMA flip) Wide Transition Zone → Expect high volatility or slow drifting within this range. Easy flow between positive and negative GEX profiles, meaning potential sharp moves in either direction. 📍 Put Support (Sum 4DTE): 5900 Very deep support—market is clearly pricing in fear of a potential future drop. 📌Below 6000, there are only negative NetGEX strikes down to 5900, which signals a lack of strong support until that level. What This Means for the Week 📊 SPX opened (gapped down) in negative GEX territory—if buyers don’t reclaim this zone, we are in for a highly volatile week, potentially with a spiking VIX. 🚫 No reason for bullish optimism unless we break above 6070—until then, expect uncertainty and potential downside pressure. PS: FINAL GEX ZONE COLORING SHEET
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade
[02/03] TSLA GEX Outlook for February expiration📌 Key Levels & GEX Insights Gamma Flip Zone: ~400 (until Febr expiration) Tight Transition Zone, Wide Clear Movement Range Above 420 Call Resistance : Every strike has positive Net GEX, meaning a return to this range would likely support further balanced upside or sideways movement. Below 375 : The next PUT support is at 350, so a break below this level could open the door for a deeper drop. There are 3 weeks until expiration. IV and IVR remain high even after earnings. Despite today’s selloff, the high call pricing skew is still attractive if we want to collect credit. In this case, a call butterfly or broken-wing call butterfly could be worth considering—but strictly based on GEX levels. PS: FINAL GEX ZONE COLORING SHEET
NASDAQ:TSLA
by TanukiTrade
6
[02/03] AAPL GEX Outlook for February expirationWhile iPhone sales faced some challenges, Apple’s diversified revenue streams and high-margin services business continue to showcase the company’s resilience. The stock initially reacted positively after earnings, but the broader market disagreed during open hours, leading to a sell-off on Friday. Now, let’s analyze the GEX chart together. For NASDAQ:AAPL , I’ve chosen the First Monthly Expiration (Febr 21), as multiple high gamma exposure expirations align with this date. Since we trade stocks and ETFs over a broader timeframe, rather than day trading, this is the most relevant perspective. Key GEX Levels & Market Implications 📌 Uncertainty Below 250 Friday’s sell-off and today’s premarket action have weakened the outlook. GAMMA FLIP ZONE: AAPL is currently in the 230-237.5 Transition Zone, meaning price action can shift quickly in either direction. 📌 Break Below 230? A move below 230 would open the door to 220. 📌 Put Support at 220 Implied volatility (IV) remains high, making this an attractive setup for a potential neutral post-earnings trade. With a 220-250 range, we remain well inside the OTM 16-delta zone for March expiration, which is ideal for premium selling strategies for high IV. PS: FINAL GEX ZONE COLORING SHEET
NASDAQ:AAPL
by TanukiTrade
[01/20] GEX Outlook: Decision, Key Levels and Looming VolatilityLooking at the GEX levels through Friday, we can see that since mid-December, the market has been moving in a slightly downward channel. Above 6000–6025: A call gamma squeeze is expected. Between 5925 and 6000: A sideways “chop zone.” Below 5925: The high-volatility zone begins, with 5800–5850 acting as our major support/resistance level characterized by heavy put dominance. Below that level lies a “total denial zone.” We’ve seen this scenario before—think back to the red candle on December 18, when the price broke below that threshold. This “red zone” is currently around 5800, so below 5925 we can anticipate large-amplitude moves. At this point, the market still does not seem worried about significant volatility. Until Friday, all NETGEX values for every expiration are positive , so market participants are pricing in more of a sideways movement. We haven’t yet seen a big pickup in volatility. I’m not pessimistic, but keep in mind that Trump’s inauguration might usher in a high-volatility period—something the market and many retail traders haven’t experienced in a while. Better safe than sorry.
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade
4
Weekly GEX Insights: 01/13 SPX dropTotal Correction? What Can an Options Trader Do in This Situation? How Far Might We Fall This Week? We’ll tackle these questions in this week’s options newsletter! It looks like the new president hasn’t even been sworn in yet, but the market is already reacting with fear to every statement he makes. Last week’s economic data didn’t help ease those concerns either. SPX Weekly Analysis Friday’s red candle set a bearish tone heading into this week. Everyone is predicting and pricing in a potential market apocalypse, and I keep getting the same question: “Greg, how far can we fall?” My answer remains the same: we can fall indefinitely—nobody can know for certain ahead of time. What we can do, however, is analyze our charts and use the our weekly GEX profile to identify the key levels, so we can better understand the market’s dynamics. Examining expirations through Friday, every NETGEX profile is negative , so we can expect volatile movements this week. We’re currently trading below the HVL level, which means that market makers are likely to move in tandem with retail traders. This typically results in bigger swings. We already saw this heightened volatility last week—just look at the size of the candles, and you can tell how quickly sentiment can shift. Below 5965 (the HVL level), we are in a high volatility zone what lies underneath? 1st Support Range: 5780–5800 5800: Currently the strongest PUT support level on the downside. A correction may pause here due to profit-taking. Right beneath this level is the previous gap-fill zone. Remember, these areas function as ranges rather than single lines, as I’ve highlighted down to 5780. This could easily be a take-profit target for traders playing gap fills—an approach that’s quite popular. 2nd Support Range: 5700–5650 (Very Strong) Starting at 5700: We encounter another robust PUT support zone. This area is reinforced by previous lows, previous highs, and the 4/8 grid boundary from our indicator. Even if nowhere else, many expect at least a local rebound to occur within these levels. Putting it all together, it’s clear that the weekly trading range is shaping up to be roughly between 5680 and 5965, expecting big & volatile moves. Remember, CPI and PPI data are coming out on Tuesday and Wednesday, which could trigger additional volatility. When looking at SPX, SPY, or /ES futures, my opinion is that the rapidly spiking implied volatility (IV) during a market drop, along with a PUT pricing skew, can present favorable opportunities for options traders. The distance to the strongest lower support zone is around 100–150 points, so you could: Trade directionally for the short term—hoping to be either right or wrong quickly, or Try to profit from the market situation in a more strategic way (which is what I typically do). Personally, I prefer the second approach: I’ll open short-term (a few days) credit put ratio spreads for a small credit, which gives me a wide breakeven range and a big “tent” on the downside.
SP:SPX
by TanukiTrade
Kickstart 2025: SPX GEX Outlook & Options InsightsNew Year, Renewed Energy — Critical Levels and Strategies for the Week Critical Levels Se detailed image below: Above 5940 (HVL): Expect some “chop zone” between 5940 and 6000, but with a generally bullish bias based on our Auto-GEX Profiles until friday. Above 6000: A gamma squeeze could ignite by Friday, pulling the index toward the next major resistance. Below 5900: Significant bearish momentum may take hold, targeting around 5800 (PUT support), though this scenario seems less likely right now. Gamma Conditions Short DTE options (0–2 days) exhibit positive gamma, which tends to buoy prices and make steep sell-offs more difficult. There’s notable IV skew in the very near-term expirations (01/08–01/09). Consider focusing on the Friday (01/10) and Monday (01/13) expirations for timespread strategies. Summary Upside: Holding above 5940 supports a move toward the 6000 target. Above 6000: A gamma squeeze could propel the SPX higher. Below 5900: Watch out for a stronger bearish move toward 5800. IV and skew may be erratic this week, but the positive gamma backdrop favors upside momentum. There are several announcements due this week. If price whipsaws around these times, remember it’s often directly tied to those scheduled news releases—try not to panic. Wishing everyone a responsible and successful year of options trading in 2025!
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade
4
Next Big Move: Weekly GEX & Key LevelsWeekly GEX & Key Levels – Options Recap Chop Zone (5850–6055) This range is likely the short-term “parking” area for sideways price action. Expect the market to oscillate here unless a stronger directional catalyst emerges. Gamma ‘Deny Zone’ (Below 5850) Dropping below 5850 can amplify negative gamma effects, potentially fueling a stronger downside move. Watch for increased volatility and momentum if this area is breached. Gamma-Squeeze Breakout Zone (Above 6055) A break above 6055 neutralizes the call gamma wall, potentially triggering a rapid rally (gamma squeeze). Consider bullish option plays if this level is reclaimed and confirmed. Options Perspective IVRank 23.8: Moderately elevated implied volatility (~1–2% potential daily moves). Puts 87%: Significant open interest in PUT positions, especially around 5800–5900 strikes, often acting as a strong support zone. Gamma Flip (~5923): A critical pivot where market maker positioning flips, potentially creating intraday turning points. Practical Strategies Range Trading in the Chop Zone Iron condors, short strangles, or other neutral strategies. Stay alert for any breakout that can quickly move the market beyond this range. Bullish Breakout Above 6055 Consider call debit spreads or bull call spreads to capture a swift upside move. Look for a confirmed break (ideally on higher volume). Bearish Breakdown Below 5850 Hedge with protective puts or put debit spreads if you hold existing long exposure. Negative gamma could accelerate downside momentum. Summary Base Case: Likely consolidation between 5850 and 6055. Upside: Above 6055, a gamma-driven squeeze could rapidly push prices higher. Downside: Below 5850, stronger selling pressure may emerge. Manage risk according to your plan and remain vigilant for any surprise catalysts. Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Always use proper risk management based on your own trading objectives.
SP:SPX
by TanukiTrade
4
[GEX] 12/16 Weekly SPX AnalysisNow, let’s take a look at the expected SPX trading range for the week based on the auto GEX levels for TradingView: It’s clear that we’re currently in positive gamma territory , primarily due to the December 20 expiration. However, the mid-week expirations leading up to that date remain in negative gamma territory, a direct result of last week’s bearish moves—though this can change within a single day. Looking ahead to Friday, we expect a range-bound, more predictable trading environment, likely holding above 6045 and below 6100 based on current levels. IVR and IVx remain low, and we don’t anticipate any increase before Christmas unless the market reaches the “total deny zone” between 6025 and 6040. The greatest IV backwardation is present between December 20 and December 23, as average IV ticked up slightly following last week’s bearish action. This makes that particular expiration combination potentially appealing for time spread strategies. Stay alert! The deny zone is near, and a quick move through the HVL could suddenly disrupt what currently appears to be a relatively predictable trading range. Conversely, a breakout above 6100 could spark a permabull end-of-year rally to the upside.
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade
2
[GEX] levels for QQQFirst, let’s examine what we see on our chart using options indicators: Summarizing the GEX levels through December 26, we have a strong call wall at around 540. If price can break above and hold that level, it could easily pave the way toward 550. However, if we’re expecting a Christmas selloff after Friday’s close, this bearish assumption might prove worthwhile. This brings up a point that often comes up: “How do I interpret whether the optoins indicator is bullish or bearish?” There’s no such definitive signal! The levels and options metrics show certain conditions, but no one can tell you exactly what will happen next. This is where you need to have a directional hypothesis. Once you have it, the indicators can help you fine-tune your positioning, identify realistic targets, and select viable legs—but they won’t decide your directional stance for you. For example, while everything may look bullish, let’s say you have a contrarian bearish view. Then you can see where it makes sense to position yourself. Test Case Chosen: 8x QQQ Dec 24th – Dec 26th 525 Calendar Put Spread Max Loss: $216 Max Profit: $1,685 PoP: 45% Why not?
NASDAQ:QQQ
by TanukiTrade
12/09 Weekly SPX InsightsLast week’s assessment aligned well with the anticipated positive SPX range. The index moved sharply up toward the 6100 area, yet as Friday’s session progressed, the call resistance around 6100 capped further upward momentum. Looking ahead, I have doubts that the previously unbridled optimism will persist. Currently, we find ourselves in a “chop zone,” suggesting that the short-term direction is less clear. In aggregating GEX (Gamma Exposure) levels and examining the landscape a week out, it appears that 6100 remains a strong call resistance level. Meanwhile, the HVL (High Volatility Level) has crept closer to around 6080, placing the market uncomfortably close to a higher-volatility environment. Below 6080, the market may experience increased turbulence, potentially retesting 6035 and then 6000. On the other hand, if the index can break and hold above 6100, an upward gamma squeeze could emerge, pushing prices even higher. Currently, overall GEX sentiment is negative, but the approach toward the HVL zone suggests caution. From these conditions, I’m not expecting a strong, sustained rally in the immediate term. In terms of intraday and short-term dynamics, 0DTE (same-day expiry) sessions and Fridays continue to hold relatively higher positive gamma exposure compared to other days. Volatility indicators: VIX: remains low IVR (Implied Volatility Rank): also low Put Pricing Skew: currently low, although it has begun to show a very slight uptick Key Levels for This Week (for educational reference): Above 6100: Omni-bullish environment Between 6100–6065: Chop zone (directionally uncertain; not ideal for unhedged directional trades) Below 6080: Bearish tilt, with targets around T1: 6035 and T2: 6000 (near the 16-delta OTM put level) On Wednesday, inflation data is scheduled for release. Anticipation alone may drive volatility, so it’s something to keep on the radar for educational scenario planning.
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade
11/18 Volatility Zones: Gamma Squeeze, Chop, and Support LevelsWeekly GEX Levels for SPX: The SPX analysis from last week’s free newsletter seems to have played out well. If you recall, based on the weekly GEX levels, there were no significant gamma levels below 5950. As soon as the price dropped below that, we saw the anticipated red gap-down to 5850 by Friday. With Friday's move, SPX shifted from a positive NETGEX range to a negative one: Let’s not forget: a negative gamma range means that market makers move in the same direction as retail traders, increasing the likelihood of stronger price movements, regardless of the market’s direction. Until the 5900 HVL level is reclaimed, I don’t expect this to change. As we saw today, there was a nice bounce off this level with a rejection, making it a tough resistance to break. If it does manage to break through, there’s currently a call gamma wall at 5925. Clearing this level could open the door to higher ranges again. While the week is still long, if the market fails to regain stability by Friday, breaking below the major 5850 PUT gamma wall could lead to another rapid move down, similar to last Friday, targeting the 5810–5800 range. Gamma Squeeze Zones for SP:SPX & AMEX:SPY this week: Above 5925: Gamma squeeze zone, where upward momentum can accelerate. Chop Zone: Between 5900 and 5930: Sideways movement expected, with the market consolidating in this range. High Volatility Zone: Below 5900: High volatility zone, indicating increased intensity in market movements. Market Makers Hedging Behavior Shift Zone: Around 5900: A critical zone where market makers may adjust their hedging strategies. Call Resistance: Below 5940: Reduced volatility expected as call resistance limits upward movement. Put Support Levels: Around 5850: Highest negative NETGEX/PUT support level. Between 5810 and 5800: Additional put support levels acting as key supports; if 5850 broken, turbulence is expected. IV and Skew Data: IVR: 16.9 increasing IV Average: 14.9 increasing PUT pricing skew: 31.5%
SP:SPX
by TanukiTrade
2
GEX levels of SPX for Weekly Option TradersAlthough the SPX is currently trading within a relatively neutral positive gamma range, it’s worth taking a closer look at what the week might hold. This week, SPX is moving between critical resistance and support levels, which are showing significant options activity. The 5900 level is the key CALL resistance, acting as the gamma wall for the next 7 days (7DTE) . This suggests that as long as the price remains below this level, it will face strong resistance in moving higher. If the market breaks through this level, it could signal a bullish breakout, leading to increased turbulence. 🟨 DETAILED VIEW: In case of a breakout, keep an eye on the second weaker CALL wall at 5925 and the third weaker CALL wall at 5940, which are the next potential resistance levels once the market moves past the 5900 gamma wall. These levels could play a pivotal role in the price’s upward movement and indicate further buying pressure. 🔶 HVL Level and Gamma Environment: 5830 The 5830 level represents the High Volatility Level (HVL), which determines whether we are in a positive or negative gamma environment. If SPX closes below this level, we enter the negative gamma zone, which could lead to increased market volatility. This could result in sharper price movements during the week if this level does not hold. In that case, the PUT supports come into focus. The 5750 level marks the strongest PUT support, providing substantial downward support for the market. However, before reaching this level, it’s important to consider the emerging PUT wall at 5765, which may stop the price from falling lower. This could act as an intermediate support, slowing or even halting a decline before the 5750 level comes into play. 🔶 Implied Volatility and Time-Based Strategic Opportunities NOW The decrease in implied volatility, as shown by the IV and IVx indicators, signals a calmer market environment. Based on IV rank and average IV levels, volatility is running lower, which presents good opportunities for various spread strategies, especially time spreads that can be optimized between the 11/01 and 11/04 time frame. Key levels above could fuel further market movement throughout the week if a breakout occurs. CALL/PUT gamma levels on the options chain strongly outline the potential resistance and support levels, but these levels can change dynamically, especially if SPX breaks through the 5900 level. 🔶 SPX Key Levels This Week: 5900 CALL resistance – Main gamma wall, strong resistance. 5925 and 5940 – Second and third weaker CALL walls, offering additional resistance if broken. 5830 HVL – Key level determining the gamma environment. 5765 PUT wall – Emerging intermediate PUT support, which could slow a decline. 5750 PUT support – Strongest PUT gamma wall and support. Keep these levels in mind throughout the week, as they will likely influence market movements and the volatility environment. By applying the right options strategies, this information can help you structure profitable positions.
SP:SPX
by TanukiTrade
7
10/28 GEX of SPX for this weekThis week is especially exciting because, on Thursday, we’ll be releasing our automatic GEX level indicator! (Halloween night, yes, very spooky...) Here's a little preview of what’s coming—just a few more days to go, and we can hardly wait! Based on the key aggregated GEX levels valid as of today's market open, we can see that SPX started the week in a positive territory following last week's minor correction. Currently, the gamma profile suggests positive outlooks through Friday as the market opened above the HVL level, which is now at 5820. The primary levels to watch are: Call Wall (5900): This level, with the highest positive Net GEX value, may serve as a strong resistance point this week. As the price approaches this level, upward momentum may slow as market liquidity tends to stabilize movements here. Put Support (5800): This is the key support level where negative gamma presence helps cushion price declines. Should the price dip below this level, moves might accelerate, so it’s worth monitoring movements around 5800. With the gamma profile above the current HVL level (5820), GEX is positive , which can help stabilize the market and support further gains. Observing options market dynamics, this level suggests the direction of momentum, where market participants may anticipate further upside. As we saw last week, this level could mark a point of heightened volatility for SPX! Additional important levels, like the 2nd Call Wall and 2nd Put Wall, can also be seen on the chart, providing potential barriers and support points for price movements throughout the week. Gamma levels are updated multiple times daily and may shift with market moves.
SP:SPX
by TanukiTrade
11/04 Weekly SPX Market Analysis with seamless GEX levelsThe U.S. presidential election is on November 5, and this week we can expect increased volatility due to the uncertainty. For options traders, one thing is certain: volatility will likely rise leading up to the election, peak around the results, and then gradually subside as the “fireworks” end. It’s essential to consider this in every trading decision. While the current Implied Volatility (IVx) isn’t extremely high, the IV Rank (IVR) is quite strong at 41, and this is likely to remain due to the increasing uncertainty. Based on the blue OTM (Out of The Money) delta curves, the market is currently pricing in a strong downward movement for the week, aligning with the negative gamma zone and negative gamma profile. For a bullish shift, we would need a strong push above 5845 to enter positive gamma territory (HVL level is the battleneck). ⏩ The 5700 level is a key PUT support across multiple timeframes. If this level breaks, turbulence is expected, with increased downward movement likely to follow, first to 5650 and potentially down to 5600, where larger PUT gamma walls are located. ⏩ According to the 16-delta OTM curve, a close above the previous all-time high is less likely. If there’s a strong breakout to the upside, the positive gamma threshold stands at 5850, and above this, buyer pressure could extend up to 5925. ⏩ I consider the 5700-5845 range as a “chop zone,” where high volatility is expected this week. In this zone, bears and bulls will be in constant battle, and I do not expect a clear trend. I focused on Friday’s expiration in this analysis, as market outlooks remain highly uncertain ahead of the election. The strong PUT pricing skew is a natural phenomenon and is expected to increase, especially since we are in a negative gamma zone. For December expirations, PUT options cost nearly twice as much as CALL options, as shown by our oscillator for 12/20 expiry. There’s already ~6% IV backwardation between the 11/08 and 11/11 expirations, making this ideal for time spreads. However, caution is warranted—front-month PUT calendar and diagonal spreads can easily turn negative if front IV rises more than back IV. Remember! It’s not mandatory to trade during highly uncertain periods! Staying out of the market is also a position, and sitting in cash is actually the safest choice, especially in a volatile week like this. ⏩ You can check my previous week's analysis, every one was accurate, I hope this one will useful too. 10/28 SPX 10/21 SPX 10/14 SPX 10/28 QQQ 10/14 QQQ
SP:SPX
by TanukiTrade
2
Weekly GEX levels of QQQNASDAQ:QQQ began the week in positive territory at Monday’s open, with the current gamma profile projecting positive momentum through Friday as the price is positioned above the HVL level (496). Notably, below this HVL level is a substantial "vacuum" area, so if the High Volatility Level (496) fails to hold, we could quickly see a drop to 485, where Gamma Walls provide PUT resistance at 485, 482.5, and 480. Key levels to note are: Highest Call Wall / Call Resistance (500): This level, with the highest positive Net GEX value, may act as a significant resistance. Price momentum may slow upon reaching this level, as positive gamma stabilizes the movement. However, if it breaks through, 505 and then 510 could come into play. 2nd Highest Call Wall (510) and 3rd Highest Call Wall (505): These additional resistance levels could present further obstacles as QQQ’s price moves up, both showing high positive gamma activity that may limit upward momentum. PUT Gamma Wall / Put Support (480): This is the most important support level, where negative gamma presence may buffer price drops. However, if this level is breached downward, declines could accelerate. 2nd Put Wall (485) and 3rd Put Wall (482) : These levels may serve as additional support points, providing buffers in case of further price declines.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by TanukiTrade
Weekly GEX of QQQ | Option Chain AnalysisI’d like to share my thoughts below after analyzing the QQQ option chain. In this analysis, I focus exclusively on the weekly time range, examining the QQQ option chain and the changes in top-tier options metrics. 🟨 Decline in Put Pricing Skew and Increase in IVx The decline in put pricing skew on Options Oscillator suggests that put options are becoming relatively cheaper , signaling a shift in market participants' expectations. This indicates increased call buying and put writing activity in the options chain . Along with the decrease in implied volatility (IV), this often points to a lower demand for downside protection strategies, which could be interpreted as a bullish sentiment. Currently, the QQQ’s IVRank stands at 31.5, reflecting a moderate volatility environment. However, with an average IVx of 19.2, trading volumes could increase, and interest in volatility-based strategies may rise further. 🔶 Backwardation in 4-7 DTE and Time Spreads Backwardation in the 4-7 DTE (days to expiration) period can be ideal for time spread (calendar, diagonal) option traders , as near-term options show higher volatility than longer-term ones. This creates a favorable environment for time spread strategies, especially if this backwardation persists. 🟨 Gamma Levels and Open Interest-Based Levels Call high OI gamma walls (or call resistance levels) typically act as resistance points. However, once these levels are broken, the bullish movement can accelerate due to positive gamma exposure. Put gamma walls (or put support levels), on the other hand, act as support. If broken, downward moves can intensify due to the high negative gamma exposure. While the current largest gamma wall was for today at 495, the upcoming expiration on 10/14 could shift this level to 500, where the greatest gamma exposure will likely be after the Monday expiration (due to the large amount of open interest expiring at 495). If the price breaks above this level, it could further bolster bullish prospects to 505 (last ATH). Additionally, the 500 strike plays a critical role as a major level in the Options Grid System, representing the 8/8 level. 🟨 OTM 16 delta probability cloud in Options Overlay The blue Delta Curves on the Options Overlay show the 16-delta levels, helping traders identify potential price ranges. According to current data, on the call side, the 505 strike is still within the 16-delta range, reinforcing its bullish potential. This represents the 68% probability range defined by OTM 16 delta PUTs and OTM 16 delta CALLs, showing a clear directional expected move value. It provides an insightful view of the expected price movement’s directional range, often used by delta-neutral strangle traders like those at TastyTrade. 🟨 Time Spread Strategies The aforementioned backwardation and gamma wall situation may present an advantage for time spread traders. Backwardation between 4-7 DTE provides an optimal window for those favoring time spreads, as the higher short-term volatility offers better premiums. 🟨 TanukiTrade Options Oscillator values The TanukiTrade Options Oscillator indicates that the combination of declining put skew and decreasing IV suggests potential volatility growth on the bullish side of the market. This could be a valuable signal for both long and time spread strategies. ⅀ QQQ Summary The decline in put skew and increase in IVx imply that market participants are anticipating an increase in bullish volatility. Backwardation between 4-7DTE supports time spread strategies, while the call gamma wall at 500—and soon 505—is likely to serve as significant resistance/target. (NOTE: GEX levels is not part of the TanukiTrade Options Overlay indicator yet. The automatic GEX levels will be available soon, by the end of October!)
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by TanukiTrade
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