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Ghostsquawk

Bearish Consolidation in BitcoinBitcoin has plummeted since the last writing, testing the lower $30K handle as anticipated. We are currently seeing support from $31K, but we appear to be forming a bear wedge or flag as BTC considers breaking $31K. At this point we are due for a relief rally, so don't be fooled if we see a price spike back to $32.3K or perhaps higher. We won't be back to bull mode unless we can break $34K at least and we still have $37K. We won't be out of the woods until we can solidly break $40K. How low can Bitcoin go? We will do a more thorough analysis later this afternoon, considering the historical prices going back to 2017, so stay tuned!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Ethereum Lower Lows!!Ethereum has solidly rejected the neckline of our head and shoulders pattern. We were finding support at $1872, just two levels above $1795, our target from the head and shoulders pattern. However, at the time of this writing, we have just broken below $1872, and are currently hanging out around $1850. We should see good support between $1821 and $1795, which may make a good entry if you still have hope for a bull pump to come through. We should definitely at least see some ranging at those levels even if we do see another dump. Keep in mind, that the worst case scenario based on our analysis yesterday, is $1100 for ETH in the long term.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
1
Stocks Consolidating!!Stocks are consolidating at highs around 4389. We do appear to be seeing a double top at this level. However we have strong support from current levels at 4364. This could be the consolidation of volatility preceding another breakout. If so, our next target is 4408. If we are wrong we have a few levels of support from below, separated by comparatively large vacuum zones. Watch 4350, 4327, and 4306 for support. The Kovach OBV is still pretty strong, but has started to taper.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Strong Selling Pressure for BitcoinBitcoin appeared to show some signs of life but the meager rally was quickly batted down. We do seem to have some support at the technical level identified earlier at $32.3K or so. However the Kovach OBV is still bearish indicating strong selling pressure, and suggesting that this rally was nothing but a short covering rally. Bitcoin is quite oversold still, and we are due for a decent pump. But right now, it seems that are testing lower levels in the $30K's or at least consolidating at lows, potentially forming a bull flag before the next move.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Litecoin Testing Lows AgainLitecoin found support at $124, which we identified as a new technical level. Bull momentum was quickly thwarted by $130, and we appear to be headed toward $124 again. This consolidation of volatility appears to be forming a bear flag potentially before another breakdown. The next level down is $120, then we have a wide gulf to $105. The Kovach OBV is very bearish and the market is oversold and due for a good pump, even if it is just a short covering rally.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy
1
How Low Can Ethereum Go??We've been hearing this question a lot lately. Given the pervasive FUD, and anticlimactic rallies, it is reasonable to question the overall long term outlook for Ethereum, and cryptos in general. We don't have a crystal ball, but can only refer to historical examples, noting that crypto does tend to move in cycles and history has repeated itself in 2012, 2017 and now here in present day. Let us consider what happened in 2018, when Bitcoin crashed from highs at around $18K to $6K in just a few days. That comparative decline in Ethereum is displayed on the left hand side of the daily chart. Notice that the comparative high for Ethereum was about $1600. Our Fibonacci levels, give us good indications of the steps along the way down for ETH to reach lows. Observe that we hit the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $378, indicated by the red circle. Fast forward to present day. It is difficult to ignore the similarities: "when in doubt, zoom out". We have comparative tests of 0.618, then 0.500 in both cases. But the low point was the 0.236 level, also highlighted with a red circle. This puts us at about $1100 even, which is a strong technical and psychological level. It's far from current levels, and seems unreasonable. But then again, the $300's also seemed unreasonable in 2018. The point of this analysis is certainly not to inspire FUD or encourage a particular trading decision. We're just analyzing some worst case scenarios based on historical evidence.
KRAKEN:ETHUSD
by quantguy
2
ETH Rejects the H&S Neckline!!Ethereum made a run for the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern we identified earlier. We saw a nice breakdown and subsequently a run for the neckline again, which we predicted would hold and that is exactly what happened. The neckline at $2027 is a strong technical level and can be thought of as a 'make or break'. If ETH was able to break the neckline solidly, then that would be a very bullish sign. The selloff took us back to nearby levels, however, so we could see another bull push. For now it seems like ETH wants to consolidate around the cluster of levels that separate it from our target at $1795.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
1
Head and Shoulders Breakdown in ETH!!Ethereum has solidly broken down from our head and shoulders pattern, coming just two levels above our target of $1795 to $1872, before catching a relief rally to $1948. There is a vacuum zone back to $2K, but a red triangle above $1948 on the KRI suggests that we are facing some resistance at this level. If we can break through then $2K will provide resistance. But if we break down from here again, then our H&S target of $1795 should be within reach.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
1
Best Bitcoin Trading IdeasBitcoin has continued to trek downward, receiving a tiny burst of momentum around $31.5K. It is showing a clear bear trajectory but at this point, a relief rally is due even if it is just a proverbial dead cat bounce. We have broken past $32.3K, which is the nearest level of resistance. However the Kovach OBV is still quite bearish and the Kovach Chande is at a high, suggesting this may be a great shorting opportunity. If momentum continues, then $34K will yet again be our next target, though BTC has had trouble with this in the past.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Head and Shoulders in Stocks??Stocks have inched out highs at 4389, but have retraced slightly to support at 4364. We may be witnessing a head and shoulders pattern in formation, with a neckline at 4350. However, wait for the second shoulder to fully form before considering a retracement. We still have a great amount of bull momentum, as measured by the Kovach OBV which has only slightly dipped with the pullback. Our next target is 4408, which could easily be reached today if we catch a bid at open.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Oil Ready for a Breakout??Oil has retraced a bit from highs but has found good support from $71.00, which was a level we have identified in the past. This retracement seems to have formed an inverse head and shoulders with a neckline at current levels suggesting that oil may be preparing for an imminent breakout. The Fibonacci extension levels suggest that the relative high at $76.93 is a perfect target. The Kovach OBV has picked up substantially from the dip as has the Kovach Chande which suggests we could be gathering momentum for the breakout. If we fail to break out of this neckline at $74.67, however, we will likely retrace the entire move down to $71.00 again.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
1
ETH Head and Shoulders!!Ethereum was unable to sustain the $2100's yesterday and faced a big selloff that took us back to $2025, the last technical level of the $2K's. We appear to be seeing a head and shoulders pattern forming with a neckline at this level. The inverse Fibonacci extension level forms a good target if we do break down from this pattern and that puts us at $1795. The Kovach OBV has turned quite bearish. If we are wrong, we could test highs at $2400 soon.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
2
Another Wave of FUD for Bitcoin??Bitcoin has retraced from $34K, again finding support just above $32.3K. We mentioned yesterday that we feel a divergence is forming with momentum and price action and we still feel that this is the case. The question is whether this will manifest in a breakout for BTC, which clearly did not happen yesterday. Bitcoin seems to be very comfortable in the $32K to $34K handle. This is a narrow range for this product and suggests a breakout may be near. Historically speaking, by reference to the dip from 2018, we could hit the 0.236 level which would put us at about $18K. For now, we expect $30K to be the min lower bound
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by quantguy
Bull Divergence in ETH!!Ethereum has maintained a very narrow range over the weekend, and has dipped slightly as we head into today's session. The $2100's seem to be a hurdle for ETH, and we are looking at support at $2087. If we break further $2025 will provide support and this is the last technical level before $2K and below. We are seeing the beginnings of a bull divergence in the Kovach OBV and the price action. If we catch some momentum, $2232 is the next target, before $2400. We feel the crypto market in general is due for a good pump.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by quantguy
1
Bull Divergence in Bitcoin!! 📈Bitcoin appeared to be making a nice run for a technical level at $34.9K but fell just short of this and broke through $34.0K. We feel a good pump may be near. There is a divergence between the Kovach OBV and the price action (identified with red arrows). Additionally, Bitcoin has been ranging in the $30K's for an uncomfortably long period. Many pundits have been calling for the $20K's or lower, and we simply have not seen that. The crypto market is really good at rejecting the ideas of would-be analysts. If we do build some momentum watch $36.7K, and if we break current levels solidly, then $32.3K should provide support.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by quantguy
Stocks Ranging Near HighsThe S&P has squeezed out new highs at 4375, coming within a few points of our target of 4380. We are currently at 4354, just above one of our technical support levels of 4350 (once a profit target). The Kovach OBV was pretty strong but has tapered with this retracement. Thus it is likely for stocks to range a bit at current levels in a sideways correction before gearing up for a run at highs again. If not, 4380 is still our target and will provide resistance. From below, 4327 and 4306 will provide support
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
ETH Finds Support, Still Looks WeakEthereum broke down, reaching just above our level at $2025 at the lowest before equilibrating between $2087 and $2143. It seems the $2100's are a comfort zone for ETH right now. The Kovach OBV is extremely bearish. It was this that led us to believe ETH would breakdown from its consolidation pattern earlier, when it peaked up near $2400. Thus there is no reason to expect any bull runs any time soon, aside for perhaps some relief rallies to the broader bear trend. The low $2K handle should provide good support. We have swiftly rejected $1900's in the past, and this trend will likely continue.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by quantguy
1