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Ghostsquawk

Best Bitcoin TechnicalsBitcoin has validated our predictions quite well. We noted $28.9K was a nice price target, based on our Fibonacci extension levels. It hit that exact price yesterday. Now it seems like it is coming up for air. The Kovach OBV is strong, but has levelled off in the last few bars, suggesting that we may be at a comfortable top for the time being. At this point, the most realistic retracement we can expect is $27K, and that should be considered a serious buying opportunity.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by quantguy
Price Target for Stocks at New HighsStocks retraced exactly when we said they would, finding support at the level we identified. The S&P still may retrace further and be considered 'bullish'. The extremely bullish can consider this a buying opportunity. The more conservative bulls may wait for a nicer pullback, to 3714 or 3694. The Kovach OBV has slumped, so we may see a nicer correction soon. The Fibonacci's agree with our technical levels and give us an immediate price target if stocks can make new highs. That price target is a Fibonacci Extension at 3774
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Best Bitcoin Trading IdeasBitcoin continues its meteoric rise against the dollar (as most dollar denominated assets are right now). Any dip should be considered a buying opportunity. There is increasing adoption, and the Ripple issue with the SEC is only fueling Bitcoin's ascent as people are selling out of Ripple into BTC. The next target is a Fibonacci extension at about $29K, then we can expect it to test the $30K level, which is a technical and psychological level. Some are saying we could correct back $17K, but at this point that is just wishful thinking. If history serves us, there should be a selloff toward tax season, which can provide an entry opportunity for those late to the party.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by quantguy
Best Stock Trading Tips for New YearsWe finally did see a little dip in stocks, but nothing terribly significant. Unless there is some breaking news on stimulus, vaccines or some other world event, the S&P should range about current levels. The level 3758 is significant at new all time highs, and its doubtful we will have the strength to break this, barring some new event. The sideways correction should hold between 3714 and 3758, and could make for some great range trades. A significant dip would be 3694 or lower and would represent a buying opportunity. Watch for the markets to dry up as we head closer to the new year.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Everything Points to a Higher Bitcoin PriceBitcoin is holding strong in the $27K handle. It looks like it has found a double bottom at $26.2K, twice finding support here. BTC appears to be in the final stages of a dragon head pattern and is looking to break higher. All fundamental factors point to higher values: increasing adoption, big money pouring in, and even nods from regulators world wide. We can expect BTC to smash through $27.7K and then to $28.9K a Fibonacci level. After this we can plan on the $30K handle which may happen this year, or early 2021.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by quantguy
1
Price Targets for BitcoinBitcoin has broken all time highs several times since our last report. Our Fibonacci extensions are excellent in predicting its price targets. Currently, we are caught between some nested Fibonacci levels. It is likely to range here for a bit as it finds footing between $26.2K and $27.8K. It is consolidating in a dragon head pattern, which is a Ghostsquawk exclusive technical pattern. It is likely to break highs again, $28.9K is our next target, then $31.7K. Both are Fibonacci extensions. If we are wrong, there is a vacuum zone down to $24.5K, a nested Fibonacci level.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by quantguy
Holiday Malaise for StocksThe S&P 500 has tested highs again. At this time, it is not likely to muster the strength to bust through to new highs, at least without testing lower levels first. It is unlikely we will see any significant retracements due to the time of the year, but we are also unlikely to see an emphatic breakout either. Watch for it to reject highs at 3737 and bounce around lower levels. In particular, 3714 and 3694 will provide support. The Kovach OBV is climbing, but looks like it is weakening.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Channel Breakdown in StocksStocks got smashed, in an apparent channel breakdown. We mentioned that this may come due to the unwillingness of the S&P to break out of this pattern, and how it was hugging the lower bound of the channel, but unable to do much more than that. We have retraced about 50% of the channel height, which is a pretty good target. We hit 3617 and retraced to 3660. It is likely to hover around here due to low liquidity as we approach the holidays. Watch for a recovery if there is good news on stimulus talks
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Cautiously Optimistic of StocksStocks have edged upwards. They are ping ponging between the lower bound trend line of the channel pattern, and 3714, which is a very significant level. It has provided resistance in the past, now it provides support. Until the S&P can definitively break this trend line, we are skeptical of the rally. Avoid fomo at this point and aim for a good dip to enter. We could still see another retracement to 3694. The Kovach OBV is flat, which is adding to our skepticism. Conclusion: be cautiously optimistic of stocks right now
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
1
Bitcoin Moons Again!Bitcoin smashed through all time highs and through the $20K and $21K handles. It has finally stopped for air around $22.7K, which is a Fibonacci extension. These are really the only way to predict profit targets when bitcoin moons. Observe that this ascent has created a huge vacuum zone which BTC is likely to fill at some point. Typically, Bitcoin will grow exponentially, then form a dragon head pattern (ghostsquawk exclusive technical pattern), before bursting out higher. The Kovach OBV and Kovach Chande are both overbought at this point, suggesting you missed your chance for a long trade, but any dip should be considered a buying opportunity.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by quantguy
Best Trading Ideas for StocksWe were spot on with our analysis in the S&P two days ago, where we predicted it would reject the lower bound of the channel, then make a run for it again. We didn't anticipate stocks to dip so low, but the overall behavior was correct. We did warn you to perhaps enter at lower levels. Current levels should provide enough resistance to see another dip before it makes new highs. The Kovach OBV is picking up, but not very strong comparatively and the Chande is flat, suggesting we may have some retracement before another burst of momentum comes through.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
S&P Retracement, Buying Opportunity?Looks like we were right on the rejection in the S&P. We just were a little to aggressive on the buyback. We noted a strong level of support under the resistance formed by a technical level and the lower bound of the channel pattern. However, we had enough momentum to pierce 3676 (where we thought we'd have more support), and 3658. The S&P finally found support at 3645, which a level marked by relative highs and lows, and we have thus added it as a significant technical level. We did catch some momentum here and are currently stuck between those three levels. It is likely that we will range here for a bit as the asset finds footing. Any lower levels should be considered buying opportunities
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Back to Risk On for StocksStocks caught a huge lift from risk on sentiment at the open. However they have extended about a full ATR, and are encroaching upon the lower bound of the channel that the S&P held for days. This is sure to provide at least some resistance, and may offer an opportunity to get long if you are bullish on stocks but missed out entering yesterday. We should at least see a retracement back to 3676. The Kovach OBV is strong, so we may see a bounce here. If so, we will likely test somewhere near 3714, where the trend line is meeting a significant level of support. If not, watch 3658 for support below.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Finally Break!Stocks broke down from the bull channel pattern exactly when we said they would to exactly the level we identified (brushes dirt off shoulders). We noted the bull channel and lackluster momentum. Also we noted the vacuum zone below to 3624. The Kovach OBV has registered this huge dip, but has since levelled off. Current levels will provide resistance, but there is another vacuum zone to 3584 below. Otherwise, stocks should remain between 3624 and 3658. A burst of bull momentum will still have to contend with this latter level.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Channel Breakdown in Stocks?Stocks found support and resistance exactly at the levels we have identified. The S&P has followed the course identified by our bull wedge pattern. Currently it looks like we may be ready to break down from this pattern. Note the Kovach OBV has dropped precipitously. The S&P has breached the lower bound of the channel pattern multiple times, and has not seen the bounce it should have. The level 3658 is the one to watch for momentum if a breakdown occurs. 3624 will provide support. If we are wrong, 3676 will get hit first, so this would be a good stop loss (or entry point). Highs are at 3714, which will need to be tested again if we find bull momentum.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Stocks Maintain ChannelStocks caught a lift a few points above 3658, the level we called out in the last report. The S&P 500 still appears to be maintaining its bull channel pattern as it finally found resistance again at 3708, which is the extension of the trendline which forms the upper bound. Expect this to provide resistance. The level 3676 will provide support, if it retraces at open. This is the intersection of a technical level and the lower bounding trendline, so it is meaningful. If it can break this, this represents serious bear momentum and we should consider our levels below for targets: 3658, 3624, 3617, and 3584.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Bull Channel in StocksAs discussed in our reports yesterday, stocks got batted down from highs. This was highly likely due to the fact that there really wasn't a clear spike of momentum to take us up definitively to higher levels. Additionally, the bull wedge we thought we saw mutated into somewhat of a bull channel. If the pattern continues, we will see support at 3658, which is where the lower bounding trendline will meet a technical level. Recall that if we break down from this pattern, we could easily hit 3617 or 3584. This would be confirmed by selling pressure at 3658.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Potential Channel Breakdown in StocksThe breakout in the S&P looks really meager. It broke through highs, but what was supposed to be a big burst of momentum in a bull wedge breakout was just a sputter. It looks like now we are seeing a bull channel. The lack of conviction here is a bit concerning. Bull channels tend to break to the downside and can easily retrace 50% of their height. If that is the case, that would put us somewhere in the neighborhood of 3617. The Kovach OBV is very flat, which supports this idea.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Stocks Teasing a BreakoutStocks keep teasing us with this bull wedge breakout. They are testing the upper bound 3677 at the time of this writing. If they do manage to breakout, we can expect 3700 (a psychological level) and 3750 (a fibonacci extension) to provide resistance. The S&P is really drawing out this breakout, so we may anticipate another dip before it finally goes. It is not a question of 'if' but 'when'. We could take another dip and test 3650, right about where the lower bound of the wedge is. Of course, if things go south and we break down, watch 3617 and 3584.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Bull Wedge ContinuesStocks keep ranging. Our analysis remains the same. The strategy here is to wait for some momentum to break out of this bull wedge pattern we have been holding for weeks. Patience will pay off. If you are holding positions, it is wise to keep them, but entering right now may be entering out of fomo, unless you expect an imminent breakout and have tight stops. Volatility has been consolidating so we could break in either direction, so be careful. If we break to the downside, watch 3617 or 3584 for support.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy