$GILDAnother biotech to add to our basket. I'm bullish on gild after a weak few months, 7x earnings excluding r&d with the fortress HIV providing most of cash flow.
Large cap with almost 100% upside
All the best.
GILD
Descending WedgeI do not believe we fall below the important support level drawn by the red line. It had shown as vital support in the past and i believe we will see the same here. A further decline does not seem warranted also because of the RSI's divergence to declining prices showing that strength is increasing. After such a decline we should see a breakout to at least Fib 50% from GILDs High to its current price which January Calls look appetizing at the moment as a large move is not expected. Both calls and puts show high OI but this is something I will definitely keep an eye on. GILD is a solid company.
Earnings trade in GILD (Spiked Lizard)This is a neutral trade with no risk to the upside. Its like a straddle with protection to the upside, then selling a ratio spread to move our break even down (Doubling our risk to the downside) The trade is called a spiked lizard by Liz and Jenny. The expected move is around $3 and we have an IVR of 60. With an expected 40% vol crush, lets see how this trade goes.
Our Break even is at 64.93
The trade:
-2 65 Put
+1 66.5 Put
-2 69 Put
+1 71.5 Put
We got $0.11 credit. Max profit is $261.
Long Position in GILD After Bullish BounceAbout a week or so ago, I published an idea about GILD hitting some serious support levels going back to mid to late 2014 - 2015. What I thought back then was that if GILD were able to hold on to that support level, even bounce around it without falling below it, I would enter a position in my paper account at that support level, and place my stop below the support line. So, if my stop is triggered, it signals that my thesis was wrong, and perhaps that I should try it on the short side (still working with ways of changing direction on a time to profit even when my hypothesis is wrong.
Anyways, let's look at the trade. I risked 1.0% of my portfolio with a stop loss at $63. I didn't set any profit targets, and I think I'm going to keep not setting profit targets. The reason being is I want to make sure that I am being diligent in moving my stops with the direction of the trend (if I am right), and let the profit take care of itself.
Trying to stay discipled in capital risk management, and I am getting more confident with it.
All the best,
RC
GILD - Where is the bottom?Where is the bottom? I absolutely DO NOT have the answer.
Volume corresponding to GILD price is interesting. I don't often look at 1M, but it does give an interesting perspective.
Short interest is .98%. I'ts been dropping since 2013.
1W:
1M CELG Comparison:
GILD hitting Major Support LineGilead Sciences is a deep value play, along the likes of a Joel Greenblatt "Magic Formula" stock. Around September I expressed a bullish interest in GILD given its fundamentals and its valuation. During that time, GILD traded at $73. Since I expressed a long interest, the stock has done nothing but decline. Looking back on my initial bullish opinion, I didn't take into consideration the charts, let alone even think about TA.
The fundamental research was over, and due to the fundamentals I didn't really think to take a look at the charts. After all, it was my inner Buffett saying, "Hey, this is a great business, don't even worry about the price, since the company is so great, it doesn't matter. Heck, if it goes lower, buy more!" Well, after reflecting on this consensus I realized how foolish it was of me.
If I would've taken the time to look at the charts, I would have realized that at $73, it didn't have much support on that level, with the most recent support level being at $66.51. So, instead of waiting for that support price to hit, I thought it would be a good idea to buy at $73. Not only did that bullish decision reflect in a loss of capital, but it resulted in dead money, money that could've been used in other capital allocations.
Nevertheless, I like GILDs fundamentals so much I had to take a second look as the share price kept falling. Now, at $66.51, GILD is right at the support level from mid 2014. GILD is still in a bearish channel, but since the company is so solid on its balance sheet and has loads of cash, if the bearish channel is broken upward, I will look to get in around the $71 level.
Will keep watching.
All the best,
RC
Gilead head and shoulders pattern. Levels of support if the head and shoulders pattern continues is $68, $53, and $38.
Gilead- ShortCurrent Support: 69-70
Near-Term support: 63
I like Gilead for fundo reasons (massive FCF) but the market is correctly worried about declining hep c revenues and the lack of a transformative acquisition. The trend is clearly down with regards to price, MACD, and RSI. RSI trend-line needs to reverse in order for price to appreciate in my view.
GILD- Downtrend intactI like GILD for fundamental reasons but the market is worried about declining hep c revenues and the chart is clear. could bottom here at 69-70, but if it goes below 69 I think we revisit 63 where there is pretty strong support. RSI is in a clear downtrend, which needs to be cleared before price and momentum can reverse positively
GILD Long, Bargain Price, Monthly MACD Looks BeautifulIf you check the ideas I´ve posted, you can see the monthly GILD chart, were you can clearly see the stock is about to blow up and at a great entry price.
Right here you can see how the stock made 3 resistance levels, a few weeks ago it validated the second resistance and it just did with the first one.
Enter now or regret it later.
Go big or go home.
$GILD weekly falling wedgeIgnoring the failed breakout attempt from April 2016, this chart looks like a falling wedge. As long as it stays above $68.50 - $69 mark it is constructive.
Multiple +ive patterns1 trend retest
2 trend-based fibo. bounce zone
3 possible three bottoms (Super Pattern)
THE COMING WEEK (10/31): VIX>15; GILD, WFM, BABA EARNINGSWith VIX popping to >15 on Friday, my usual pattern is to rotate out of individual underlyings and into broad market instruments like SPY/SPX, IWM/RUT, etc. VIX ended the day at 16.2, and it could naturally settle back below 15, so I need to be prepp'd for either selling premium in broad index instruments if VIX sticks in there above 15 or playing a few higher volatility individuals around earnings if VIX friskiness fades.
I did hastily slap on an IWM, 3-wide iron condor in a December expiry on Friday, but wouldn't mind slapping on some more if this isn't the end of it for pre-election jitter volatility since I have virtually nothing on in broad-index plays.
For earnings alternatives, I'm looking for volatility contraction plays where the implied volatility is high in the range and high "in the background". Unfortunately, >70% 52-week high implied volatility rank and >50% implied volatility plays have been few and far between, so I've tweaked my screener to look for rank >70% over the preceding 6 months, as opposed to 52-weeks. Even then, only GILD, WFM, and BABA pop up as having a rank >60 (I'm being a little picky here, confining myself to the most liquid option plays), and those don't have a background implied volatility of >50%, so I'm unlikely to play any of those in the absence of a last minute pop in volatility.
Nevertheless, I will keep an eye on them "just in case" ... .
GILD: 2nd try at the long side hereGILD looks poised for a rally back to the earnings level above. Valuation is very good here, with 14% earnings yield, among other details of the company's financials.
You can go long, the risk is risk a 3.86 per share, but profit can reach 2.61 times the risk, or more if it's the start of a trend reversal in the stock.
IBB has flashed a bottom, after a 'Time at mode' decline in the daily chart ran out of time, so I think it's safe to assume that GILD will rally from here onwards.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
GILD: Tight stop loss long opportunityEnter longs in GILD at market here, risking a drop under 76.67 seems like a good trade, considering the company's fundamentals, and the daily and weekly technical landscape.
A rally back to 84.59 is in the cards.
Risk 0.5% on this trade.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
