NEXT WEEK'S EARNINGS PLAYS -- GOOG, CMG, GILD, XOM, LINKDAnd earnings season slogs on ... . Next week there are bunch of biggies, but not all of them are worthwhile options setup plays, primarily due to liquidity. GOOG's option liquidity has never been the greatest, and CMG and LNKD have always been horrid, so right off the bat I would pass on those for options plays.
GILD -- announces earnings on 2/2 (Tues) after market close. The options have fairly good liquidity, and its implied volatility rank is currently at 74.
XOM -- announces earnings on 2/2 (Tues) before market open. Good liquidity, but the implied vol rank is not where I'd like to see it; it's currently 54, a contraction no doubt due to the bit of strength in oil we've seen the past week ... .
Moreover, with the volatility still hanging in there in the broader market (VIX is still marginally over 20), I can afford to be picky and/or not play earnings at all, since my tendency is to slack off earnings plays when the VIX above 15 and go for plays in the broader index ETF's like SPY, IWM, QQQ, and DIA ... .
Nevertheless, I'll look at a setup at least in GILD and keep an eye on XOM to see if volatility ramps up to where I'd like to see it (70+ in percentile rank).
GILD
JBLU LONG lots of support Stochastic s turning up JBLUE is holding this Trend-line support watch the levels 19.50-20 buy zones. The airlines are all hitting the buy levels. I cant stress enough, traders must learn to BUY the FEAR and SELL the GREED. Always have a plan and always have a stop. understand your parameters and you will do well.
KEEP IT SIMPLE TRADE LEVELS
The Seven Reason I Bought GILDI Bought GILD for seven reasons:
(1) Head and Shoulders Pattern (60 min)
(2) Horizontal Support from Left Shoulder ($102.72)
(3) 61.8% Fib level Support @ $102.75
(4) Descending Trend line Support
(5) Long-wicked Hammer found Support at Trend line
(6) Weekly Uptrend
(7) Selling Climax in February 2015
(8) The risk/reward potential is favorable. My reward is based on a daily and weekly chart. So, It is approx. $117.
-ScienceEvolution
$GILD warmer, warmer, warmer.Price has memory, 100-106 area is particularly painful for anyone who got in this stock.
As you can see in the yellow box, Gilead spent a month in that range, many people wanted to play for a box/sym tri breakout and ride the "year-end beta chase/Santa Rally" (whatever the fvck that is, some kind of "conventional wisdom" CNBC had planted in newbie traders' brain I guess)
Anyway, I'd expect an increase of selling pressure as $GILD approach 103-106, a confluence of MA and trendlines. And believe it or not, it's made a series of lower highs and lower lows, I know this pattern has lost its relevance in this bull market, but believe me, it's important.
You can sell the FEB 105/110 call spread for roughly $1.7( or wait till it gets to 105-106 and sell the 110/115 for $1.7, just by eyeballing), or just wait a while for confirmation, let the price show you where it wants to go.
Using Parabolic Sars and Squeeze Indicators IntradayGILD - 3 min intraday chart. Indicators: Squeeze Momentum, Parabolic Sar, and VWAP
These are new indicators for me, so I did this to help me to interpret and utilize them to execute an intraday trade.
First, here is a brief overview of the Indicators used in this chart.
The Squeeze Momentum Indicator is made up of 2 components: Graph Columns and Stars.
The graph columns show the direction on the trend and the intensity. Bright Green is uptrend growing intensity. Dark green signals a loss of momentum and the reversal to the downside. Bright red is a downtrend growing intensity. Dark red signals the loss of momentum and reversal to the upside
There are 2 colors of stars. Red is the squeeze. Grey is the release. When the stars go red to grey, it results in powerful move up or down depending on the color of the graph. Generally, you can enter a trade within 1-3 grey crosses, and exit a trade by 3rd red cross.
Parabolic Sars is really simple. If the price is above the green dots, you can go or stay long. If the price is below the red dots, go short or stay short.
VWAP: I basically use this as a line in the sand. Note: you could use moving averages, but I found that they just made it too confusing, and more difficult to read with no added benefit.
The red and green boxes mark the entry and exits of the possible trades. Ok, so executing the trades.
I skip the first 15 minutes to allow for a proper setup.
At 9:45 we have a grey cross within the red graph, the price is below the red dot, and the VWAP, so go short
At 10:33 we have the 3rd red cross and the the graph is dark red, so you cover. (Short 16 bars/48 min)
At 10:39 we get a grey cross, so go long. (You could have a more conservative entry by waiting for the 2nd or 3rd grey cross).
At 10:54 the price moves over the green dot. There was also a higher high, so you stay in.
At 10:57 the price is rejected by the VWAP, and it is the 3rd red cross on the squeeze indicator.
At 11:09 it is rejected again by the VWAP, it had a lower high, and we are now on the 7th cross, so it's time to sell. (Long for 10 bars/30 min).
It continues squeezing until 11:39 when we get an explosive move up! It goes up over $1.50 in 1 candle. It blew though the VWAP, and price is above the green dot, so go long.
Between 11:57 and 12:00 there is a small pullback, so you could take some profits, but there is no need to exit the position at this point.
At 12:12 The graph changes to dark green (loss of momo), there was a lower high on the last bounce, and it is also the 2nd red candle consisting of mostly tail at the top, so it's time to sell or reverse your position and go short. (Long for 11 bars/33 min)
At 12:15 you have either reversed your previous position, or you are entering a short here. You are on the back end of the move, you have a confirmed lower high, the price is blow the red dot.
13:12. A higher low was put in, and the dark red graph is getting smaller, so it's time to cover. (Short 20 bars/1 hour).
At 13:18 a green dot appears blow the price, so you go long) or you could have reverse your short position 6 minutes ago depending on how aggressive you want to be).
At 14:36, the graph is dark green and close to the midline, so it looks like it is just going to go sideways the rest of the day, close out the position, and keep watching it. (Long 26 bars/1 hour, 18 min).
The red crosses on squeeze momentum indicator stayed for the remainder of the day, and the graph stayed near the midpoint, so there was no momo in either direction, so no further trades were made.
Is GILD building out a bear channel for future shorting purposesOne look at GILD (and CELG and IIB) are showing pretty much the same pattern that MAY be building. And yes its a bear channel that we'd like to see build out for shorting purposes. That and an upward move to some resistance zones shown, but the market is the boss and its going to do what it wants to do. The market is the boss not us. If the pattern builds out it builds out. As with all I do its real simple, no pattern no trade. These are not recommendations, strictly for informational and educational purposes only.
IBB, GILD and CELG - Is this where we see a bear channel build? As you can see this issue has broken its green uptrend to the downside. Now its all about whether or not this issue and those who look like it (CELG, GILD) build out bear channels (orange) and then break to the downside once they complete a bear channel. Later today I'll be posting more charts that look like these so stay tuned for more.
These are not recommendations. Strictly for informational purposes only. Do your own research.