"The Bank of England has hiked interest rates to 5 per cent in a further blow to homeowners struggling with spiralling mortgage costs. The rise, up from 4.5 per cent, is the sharpest increase since February – surprising economists who had been expecting a smaller increase of 0.25 percentage points – and sends interest rates to their highest level in 15...
Finally unveiled, the UK government's Autumn Budget was conservative and cautious, in line with market expectations. A fiscal consolidation of £55 billion has been announced, to be split evenly between more taxes and lower spending. From the next year until 2028, windfall taxes on oil and gas companies will increase from 25% to 35%, while the Energy Price...
Price is testing the support for the 4th time, such as MACD. We can see the columns in MACDS indicator losing power, and the line crossing each other. About candles we've a three inside up after testing the support, show us a bullish signal. And to conclude the Reerve Bank of New Zeland says "economy will slow as rising rates curb consumption", the houses...
For most of 2022, currencies were helped by rising yields on short-term government bonds. When looking at the UK bond market, rising gilt yields have reflected expectations of future interest rate hikes by the Bank of England, but ultimately they begin to incorporate more political and fiscal risks into their rate premium. Given the turbulent political climate...
Is the UK bonds or the gilts the culprit that trigger the global bond markets meltdown? Not exactly. In fact, in April this year, there were clear signals that the global bond markets were already in trouble, and we will discuss that. Content: • Why we should not blame it on the U.K bonds, then who? • How to overcome this global bond crisis? Disclaimer: • ...
In this short video I focus on the UK and US 10 year bond markets in comparison to the DJI. All these markets are linked up in the background - at the speed of light. There are no predictions here - only probabilities and speculation. High volatility is expected at the opening of the markets tonight, 16th Oct 2022. Some are predicting a 'Black Monday' type...
EURGBP I ntraday - We look to Buy at 0.8750 (stop at 0.8685) We are trading at overbought extremes. A lower correction is expected. The bias is still for higher levels and we look for any dips to be limited. We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher. Our profit targets will be 0.8935 and 0.8960...
Last week, UK pension funds, which hold highly leveraged bond derivative positions, were facing a nearly $1 trillion loss as bond prices crashed and yields rose. The crash in the bond market has been underway for years, but the tipping point occurred when the UK prime minister pledged to cut taxes at a time when inflation is soaring into the double...
In terms of the global macroeconomic picture, the past two weeks have been nothing short of a firestorm. Last week, the UK government announced plans for unfunded tax cuts and additional government borrowing in the ‘mini budget’. This caused a drastic reduction in market confidence. Consequently the Pound crashed to under $1.04, historically low levels against the...
GBPCHF Intraday - We look to Sell at 1.0718 (stop at 1.0813) We look to sell rallies. There is scope for mild buying at the open but gains should be limited. The immediate bias is skewed to the upside but, with this move assessed as being corrective, we would prefer to sell into the rally. The medium term bias remains bearish. Our profit targets will be...
UK10Y-GB We are overall at key area but just like EUR I see no fundamental reasons short/medium term on why and who would realistically going into Gilt at this moment of time. Inflation running hot, could estimated by this yr at 13-15%, recession, housing crises and last of all political instability.
What if it IS transitory Look at inflation hedges Not doing great This looks like a buy TARD AT YOUR OWN RISK
Bear and bull cycles Through the magic of geometry Looks like bull is winning But we'll know in a few months GRI 2022 NOT TRADING ADVICE
Q: What has the highest probability of occurring? Since early July there have been 4 tests of 132.000 resistance. There is a combination of 2 classic patterns forming at resistance. The double top, where both tops have been rejected at 132.000, is currently valid. The head and shoulders, the head consisting of the double top, would need to break the neckline...
Important updates on the UK side for those in UK related assets. A game changer cabinet reshuffle to put a 🍒 picked “Yes man” in the Treasury. Downing Street making renovations and now in full control of not only No.10 but also No.11 (and scarily soon to be the BOE next month). Sunak will turn the fiscal taps on full blast, the fuel behind fiscal stimulus will...
Here you can see where the money from the euro area flows, among other things. Nobody talks about it and the media sell the "EU people" once again for stupid and tell corresponding fairy tales. The high of the Euro in the third week of February marks the low of 10-year British government bonds. The first of March low in the euro with 1.2124 marks the blue 1 high...
Bonds are holding at the minor projection at 121.72. Due to the underlying bearish momentum we expect a continuation towards the much more important targets at respectively 116.82 and 108.90. Note that this latter level is virtually equal to multiple pivots of 2013-2014. We maintain our strong negative stance versus bonds. Only a recovery above 125<>125.20 can...
Uk gilts look like a short here on the break of multidiagonal support. There's a confluence somewhere between April to August so i would be expecting a drop to around the 11.50-12.00 level on a longer term basis.