1 of multiple scenarios for the S&PThe S&P closed right under major resistance on friday. This leaves the door open for 1 of multiple scenarios to play out.
1- the market tanks from here and dips below 3800
2- the market dips, hold a higher low then breaks thru resistance to 4321, then 4400
3- the market melts up to the top of the channel at 4400
GLD
The Gold Odyssey - retracement done AS previously described, Gold was in a deep retracement, and it appears that this week, the retracement is done.
Weekly chart shows a reversal candlestick pattern over the past three weeks, finding the week's close at a resistance level. Look for a breakout in the coming weeks, as Gold closed above the weekly 55EMA this past week.
Do note that previous mapping of the handle (Cup & Handle formation) it shifted forward; and 2080 high is expected to be broken around November 2022.
The daily chart show a higher low, and technicals are turning bullish. The retracement was nicely above 1800, and has a potential 20% upside to 2080. Possible for consolidation to near 1800-1820, and would be looking for clarity in the coming weeks.
Meanwhile, would be good for the USD to ease off a little. hehe.
Stay safe and well...
Daily Gold Levels, Entries & Exits#Gold Levels (#XAUUSD)
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Current break & re-test of 1810.00 level
Break = Sells to 1800.00
Invalidation = Support at 1810.00
Overall bias short = Sells @ 1820.00, 1830.00
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GDX Interim Bottom?Just as Gold and equities plummeted over the last 4 weeks, GDX was in no way spared, losing at least 25% from 4 weeks ago. An absolutely deep retracement following Gold prices.
Daily candlestick pattern suggest a brief consolidation at current levels, 30-31.
Do not yet see a bottoming pattern... not yet.
Gold - losing it's shineLook for a retest of last week's break of trend, around 1850 or so for a short. DXY will keep rallying for years in my opinion, but yeah there will be breathers and gold will catch a bid for a few days/weeks.
To me Gold is ready for a lot more downside especially with so many bulls still in this market. Someone will probably let me know about physical gold or silver and how the demand is through the roof - yeah, you're getting that info from Gold Dealers. Um, ok? Anyway, I don't care.
The chart is bearish.
GOLD - GC 2 HourA correction in the DX will provide Flow Info for Gold
should the Peak Inflation narrative capture the mindshare
short term.
Gold is on a knife's edge.
Boom boom directly ahead.
1780 to 1690 remains the lower range, with 1828 the
short term pivot, with 1888 the Key level for a retest of
the higher end of the short-term range.
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The COT has remained aligned against the Specs for some
time, it has been largely ignored by most NextGen Goldbugs
who are malinforned and susceptible to the decade long traps
sprung by the usual suspects.
How many fines has JOM paid for rigging the COT over the
past two decades?
Too many.... A DX turn will excite the Bugs.
"it's time to Buy" .... yeah, naw, another chase trap is all it will
amount to within the Buy Zone.
Change of trend will be the new narrative - wash, rinse and repeat
for the Yellow Dawg.
Gold has Zero real utility for the coming years...
Against the Monetary Base Gold has been Left for Dead, the ST Louis
Fed maintains the Data.
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Expect actions shortly, with increased VX.
DX DXY USD - Dollar 2 HourAfter reaching parity with the Swiss Franc Facta, the DXY peaked ST over 1.05.
Our TOSS level was 104.55, it has been met Short Term on a Throw Over.
It's nowhere near done moving higher, but for now, will range to digest a large
move into the Safety Trade
It did peak while sentiment was reaching extremes unseen. Again we do not
expect Extreme Fear readings to give up much more than a persistent Fear
Reading.
Only Direct Subsidies to Consumers and FMonetary/Fiscal Pivots will resolve the
embedded Senticators.
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My long-standing FX Accident Thesis is well underway and will continue into
October of 2023.
A new Low at the close of the session sends the DX lower, a potential distribution
is setting up nicely Shorter Term.
We'll need to see if this ends up with a larger distribution. It well may be turning
slightly on this pattern.
Observing the reaction on Gold will be telling, it did hit my PO @ 1798.90 dipping
in ever so slightly. Gold is reaching a DOM demand level.
The COT remains in a SELL for Large Participants.
Is a surprise in store, there appears to be one waiting in the shadows.
The Gold Odyssey - deep retraceGold has been in a four week retracement, with the greatest momentum this past week, pushing down to near 1800.
The weekly and daily technicals suggest more downside to 1765, where the next support lies. Watch these levels for a possible consolidation / bounce.
Clearly, this retracement is deeper than expected, and would require a quick rebound to resume the long term pattern.
XAUUSD GOLD Supply And Demand AnalysisSee Picture Short for analysis..
Thoughts? I love gold for buying so this woud be a small risk.
The Gold Odyssey - retrace & relaunchQuick note that previous projections to 2100 still maintained and appear to be on track, despite a recent retracement in Gold, partially due to the sudden rise of the USD.
Although Gold prices fell below the daily 55EMA, today (5th May) saw a gap up in Asian hours after opening. There is a strong follow through (Gap and Run) and IF it closes at this level, then technically, Gold is likely to be back on the uptrend again.
Watch as the MACD is turning upwards to crossover. May is an important month to break out of consolidation.
Gold - What to expect from the FOMCIn our latest post on gold, we noted that the bearish trend lacked momentum, which would result in a sideways moving price action. We said that gold profit-taking would ensue to cover traders' losses elsewhere. We expect this trend to continue in the short term. We will pay close attention to the FED on Wednesday as it is expected to hike interest rates by 50 basis points. In our opinion, this will put further pressure on the U.S. economy, which will see more selling pressure. That is particularly bearish for gold in the short term. Therefore, we voice caution throughout this week as we expect gold to manifest high volatility. Indeed, we think there are high odds for gold to see a short-lived flush that will take it towards 1800 USD. Although in the medium and long term, we remain bullish.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above illustrates XAUUSD on the daily time frame and volume below it.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are bearish; DM+ and DM- suggest that same condition. Meanwhile, volume is declining, which suggests fewer people are willing to sell at the current price level. We expect volume to drop even more if the price continues lower. Overall, the daily time frame continues to be bearish. However, we think lower prices from the current level are attractive for accumulating more gold.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI is bearish. MACD is also bearish; however, it still hovers in the bullish area. Stochastic is bearish. DM+ and DM- are bullish, although if a bearish crossover occurs, it will cause us to change our medium-term to bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Long GLD With rising inflation and politicals risk all around the world, Gold continues to perform as a safe haven for assets. From the TA perspective, Gold has formed a double bottom and it is breaking out late march level ($1957ish). It is aiming for a 0.61 Fib level around $2000, possibly all-time high,
Gold Trading RangeGold may have found a floor today as both MFI and RSI indicators have bounce out oversold territory. Looking at the 4H chart, the MFI and RSI indicators have been a consistent indicator this year of telling when gold bottoms.
I have started entering into gold again but I will be trading with caution as the range is small and I am looking to liquidate my positions once we reach around 1950 range. There is a wedge pattern forming and it could be bullish but it will need momentum and volume to break out past 1950.
Forewarn, Dollar is still going strong and bonds are starting to look attractive so gold may continue to get pummeled. Gold and silver will need the dollar to come down for the two metals to start rising again.
GDX In the last week, GDX erased the bullishness of the preceding month with one fell swoop of an Bearish Engulfing kind (weekly chart).
So expecting continued bearish candles would be expected as it follows through.
The daily chart supports that view so far, and it just broke down of the 55EMA, after a gap down. The good thing is that it did not really gap and run... at least not yet.
Technicals are overall bearish, at least for a bit. Expecting bounces off 36, maybe even 35.