The dollar just broke a 37 year old trendline This doesnt look good for Bitcoin. This could be the beginning of BTC to retest 20k level if the dollar keeps spiking. Commodities at all time highs, the USD is needed globally... much sooner then they need Bitcoin. Until commodities are paid in BTC, the Dollar will remain strong with EUROPE / Global uncertainty
GLD
Gold miners ETF (GDX) taking off again!The Gold Miners ETF, GDX, as expected, launched itself after a small recoil.
The Weekly chart key takeaway is that the MACD and RPM followed through, but better yet, this week saw the weekly candlestick to be in a rather bullish position, closing the week on a recent 9-month high.
Fibonacci projections bring a 47.50 upside target in the following weeks.
The Daily chart confirms the bullish indications similarly. Having bounced off an intermediate support, the technicals are turning bullish again as the strong close for the last day of the week encourages a breakout above 40.
Arc in GDXJ / GDX ratio points to junior mining bullmarketIf you make a ratio of Gold Juniors to Gold Majors, you will find that there is an arc in the making since 2010.
It looks like we are about to enter the fun side of the arc, where juniors outperform majors.
This is historically often a sign of liquidity and luster returning to gold, in the form of rising gold prices, and risk securities outperforming.
Got Juniors?
GLD longer term bullish C&H patternGLD (or Gold, I don't play futures) look extremely bullish with a long term cup and handle pattern that has taken over a decade to set up. Was interested in waiting further into the week but yesterday's selling and the gap down today with the buying that has come in, just tells me to go ahead and get in. So going to pick up Jan 2024 call options. If you have any concerns over the stock market, this looks like a "no-brainer" type of place to go hide out.
Cup and handle forming on GLD! Time again to keep an eye on the price of GLD!
There are many factors that come into play with the price of gold. Our outlook remains bullish here technically and fundamentally. With the Fed having printed TRILLIONS over the last couple of years due to the pandemic they have drastically increased the supply of the dollar. This act has of course contributed to the inflation numbers we have been seeing over the last couple of months.
With the value of the dollar decreasing, we've seen drastic increases of value in multiple commodities such as lumber, nickel, copper, oil, natural gas...etc. As we see the dollar decrease further an inflation to continue higher it is only a matter of time before real money (Gold) starts to become the center of attention.
The headwinds against this in the short term is the Fed's decision to taper the purchase of bond assets so they can increase interest rates to "fight" inflation. The only problem with this is that we don't believe the Federal Reserve will really commit to fighting inflation via rising rates. Consensus for 2022 rate hikes at the moment is sitting around 4. This would likely put rates at around 1% by the end of 2022. If we include 2023 projections, we'll be looking at rates around 2% in 2 years (maybe 3% with more aggressive estimates). This flat out won't be enough to fight the inflation numbers that we're seeing.
Now if the Fed DOES decide to actively fight inflation and increase rates to upwards of 7% to fight this inflation, they will stunt economic growth and send markets spiraling downwards. We simply don't see the current regime at the Fed willing to do this. The only choice we have is to live with the current inflation for years and years to come.
GLD breakout is finally happening! Check out the monthly chart on GLD! We've gone over this breakout and if finally looks like we're getting a higher high.
We have been long on GLD and physical gold for awhile now as an inflation hedge.
This will also be an active play if tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue to escalate.
Looking at our fib extensions we see $200 and $210 are well within reach. AMEX:GLD
NVDA 182 PRICE TARGET - BY MARCH 21NVDA should hit a price of 182 on or before March 21st - if this level does not hold, it should continue down near the 160 range.
The Volume and On Balance Volume helps confirm this. As far as patterns go, NVDA seems to be at the top of a strong channel, and has plenty of room to descent.
I will be looking for puts on NVDA in the coming days.
Is GOLD $GLD going to make a move to the upside!?Is gold going to make another move?!?
I think it might. First off with everything going on both in the USA, along with the Ukrainian & Russian war. I think gold (GLD) might be heating up.
If you look at the flow into options, I think it might suggest a very BULLISH future for gold, I mean its been consolidating on the weekly for a while now, and looks absolutely primed on the monthly.
I have listed 3 Targets (Options based):
#1 $187.41 - $188.65
#2 $194-40 - $197.00
#3 $200.00 - $205.00 is a lottery (holding over a few contracts from target #2)
Longer term I could see this hitting $220.00+, but at the current moment we will just play what is in front of us.
Gold (XAU) • Macro bearish divergence There is a lot of hype around gold bull market recently.
But with the rise of Bitcoin as the ultimate store of value. Can gold maintain its legacy of preferred long term store of value any longer?
The 3M chart is showing some signs of concern with a very clear macro bearish divergence.
I see trading bellow 1678 as an early bearish level and 1500 as support range. The question is if this support will sustain the incoming bearish momentum.
I do think that being long Gold here carries a lot of risk specially with lower-timeframes showing signs of weakness going on and this macro double top with a RSI bearish divergence.
Seeing the 3Month RSI marking above the divergence trendlines (or above 73%) would be good criteria/heuristics/rule-set for return to the bullish bias.
Historically speaking the RSI seem to show good synergy with the pace of this Quarterly timeframe.
My RSI still in green but the momentum is visibly fading away and starting to pointing down.
NVDA PT OF 210 - BY MARCH 8TH I have a price target of 210 for NVDA on or by Tuesday, March 8th. The On Balance Volume indicator is showing a hidden bearish divergence on the chart, with weakening bearish momentum.
With current geo-political events continuing to escalate, I see it becoming harder for NVDA to break its resistances. Couple this, with recent hacking attempts on NVDAs networks - I will be looking for puts the coming days.
SPY 422 PT - MARCH 8TH SPY should hit 422 on or by March 8th. Indicators show that Bullish momentum is growing weaker, while the On Balance Volume shows struggle in SPY going any higher.
With surging oil prices, and an escalating War in Europe, I think SPY will have a harder and harder time breaking through it's resistances. We also have the FEDs rate hike in March, and with new talks of the U.S and Europe closing gas lines from Russia, it is very possible we see an even higher surge in inflation, causing the FED to react faster than investors have priced in.
I will be looking for put opportunities on NVDA and SPY.
GLD, BTC, ETH, ADAComparison of crypto currencies to gold.
The buying and selling decisions depicted in this chart suggest that gold is still considered a flight to safety.
BTC will once again have to become the centre of public and policy maker's thoughts in order for it to reverse.
** Do note that the assets depicted are on separate scales (ie high beta in crypto compared to gold = greater percentage price moves).
GLD breakout emerging...Let's seeI bought a Call Option on #GLD with a $181 strike price and 3/4 expiry.
#GLD has been on an uptrend for obvious reasons- it's a hedge against inflation, which is running rampant.
Price is currently compressing in this bullish pennant pattern and I'm taking a bit of risk-on bet that this trend will continue. I'm taking profits quickly on this one in anticipation of a retracement and consolidation before the weekend. Hoping I can squeeze some profits out in the interim!
Who's entering in some EOD positions? What are you buying? Let me know in the comments!
AUY Golden Cross looking guaranteed this weekThe whole long GLD trade looks like a no brainer trade for 2022. Huge inflation talk in the economic calendar this week.
GDX... Launched!The Gold miners ETF had a clear launch over the last two weeks, amidst the build up of the global events in Europe.
The Weekly chart has a sustained double breakout of a short term trendline, and the weekly 55EMA. The technicals (MACD and RPM) are very supportive, crossing upwards and into bullish territory.
The Daily chart shows the past two weeks developments, nothing short of being impressive and decisive. An immediate term resistance is seen, but am optimistic that the Gold miners have launched from the base low, at long last.
As previously mentioned... Gold prices have since moved significantly to above 1900, and equites are on the rise.
This are supportive of the GDX. Currently, a slightly stronger USD is disregarded and off set by the previous two.
GDX has since moved up 10% and is slated for much for upside, way above 40 IMHO. Projections in a later following post...
GLD Monthly Breakout Imminent!11 month accumulation with a big range expansion in Feb. There is the possibility to expect a second level target here which would bring the price target to around $204. I'll wait till the end of Feb before entering to await confirmation of a breakout.
As long as the price stays above ~173.80 we will have a confirmed breakout.
Closing for the month above $173.80 would make the monthly range expansion greater than the previous candle, confirming the breakout.