GDX Failed attempt to rally - more downside riskExplained in the charts.
GDX is in trouble after a failed rally.
More downside. Caveat Emptor.
GLD
Trade Idea: GLD March 18th 140/September 17th 165 LCD*... long call diagonal.
Comments: Here, I'm preliminarily pricing out a bullish assumption GLD setup, buying the back month 90 delta and selling the front month at-the-money call. I'd prefer to deploy this at that obvious support level at 160, which has resulted in some buying interest previously. If that occurs, I'd have to tweak the strikes slightly, selling an at-the-money 160, for example, and then buying whatever the 90 delta strike in the back month.
The Metrics:
Buying Power Effect: 22.79 ($2279)
Max Profit: The Width of the Diagonal Spread (25.00) Minus the Debit Paid (22.79) = 2.21 ($221)
ROC %-Age as a Function of Buying Power Effect: 2.21/22.79 = 9.7%
Break Even: The Long Call Strike (140) + the Debit Paid (22.79) = 162.79 versus a spot price of 164.64
Trade Management:
Take profit on the setup's approach of max (which would be 25.00).
Otherwise, roll out the short call to a strike at or above your break even of 164.64 to reduce setup cost basis.
Variations:
Preliminarily, I'm pricing out the setup with a fairly long-dated back month. To get in with less buying power effect, look to buy a shorter duration back month 90 delta, with the trade-off being that you'll have less time to reduce cost basis via the short call in the event that gold prices keep on going down. To look for more profit potential, sell a less monied call (e.g., the 30 delta) to give the trade more room to the upside.
GOLD - Seasonality bullish in august and septemberHappy Sunday traders!
Trading strategy using seasonality, app.seasonax.com Seasonality for Gold is bullish in august and september for the past 25 years.
I am long GLD Sept $175 call options at 1.99, down ight now to 1.55. The Sept Put/call open interest ratio is .72.
GDX HAS COILED ENERGYThe metals have been stuck in a range for quite a while. Gold Miners ETF (GDX) appears to have made 5 waves up since the crash in 2020 and formed an ongoing complex correction. What do you think? Has GDX bottomed? Take note of the lower stoch/rsi wavetrend indicator and the broadening nature that has occurred since this correction. This looks like a hidden bearish pattern that will eventually break. When it breaks, GDX is likely to move up incredibly strong. Perhaps one more push lower? I don't know... But I'll be ready if it drops again.
For me, I have some medium-longer term targets over 55-60.
Gold to GDX RatioGLD/GDX Ratio predicts bottoming pattern in the Gold mining stocks. Should be followed by an upmove soon.
TIPS vs Gold Price suggests Gold is undervaluedGold has a strong correlation with inflation protected T Bonds. Recently, gold has underperformed - most likely the gap will be closed soon. Either TIPS fall, or gold goes up.
Gold COT - Growing signs of bullishnessCommitment of Traders (COT) shows growing signs of commercial being less short than the last 3 months which marks a possible bullish sentiment potentially coming into this market.
Discussion
There are three core issues when looking at gold, in my opinion:
1) Basel III, has implications for trading paper gold - the majority of traded gold to date and its effects are not well understood;
2) Mark-to-market of commodities against the US dollar including gold;
3) Input costs of mining new gold (Oil) noting that a majority of the gold traded is simply 'paper' gold or derivatives - even by gold miners themselves.
Notice that I have not made any commentary on inflation or deflation. There is no evidence from the perspective of the US market that either will be significant in the near to medium term, irrespective what the media and others promote.
Suggestion
Keep an eye of this, along with gold miners and ETFs.
GLD: Correction incoming! ↘️↘️↘️The GLD price has reached its ideal mark at around $171.43. Now, we expect the price to drop all the way down to levels around $162.15. Ending the correction there, the GLD can then look forward to gain upward momentum.
Enjoy your weekend!
GLD vs SPY Gold vs SPYTo me, looks like a swing failure low. As long as this low holds it could be bullish for gold. With this talk of inflation, who knows.
#HEX launch phase engaged, another 10% outperformance vs #BTC on the cards.
HEX token is likely to show considerable outperformance against the rest of the #crypto market
due to the launch of #pulsechain likey in August
and a sacrifice phase to last 17 days... possibly starting this week.
Gold Back to All Time Highs1. Gold price is entering a narrow wedge with an 11 month resistance and a 2 year support. This support has repeatedly been tested over the last 2 years, and is more powerful than the medium term resistance level.
2. Price is currently at the top of the wedge. A break of resistance sets up a run to all time highs, with pull backs around 1915.00 and 1965.00. I expect price to move higher swiftly after a break of 1820.00.
$BABA $NOW $CVNA $GLD I OptionsSwing WatchlistBABA 1D I Testing the $205 area for the third time, could be seeing a triple bottom before the breakout from this falling wedge.
NOW 1D I We could be seeing a possible inverse H&S, Watching above the $567 level for continuation and possible retest of $600 before its ER.
GLD 1D I After breaking out from a bull flag back, we are seeing GLD retrace back and possibly making a double bottom near $165.
CVNA 1D I Showed strength last week and it is testing ATH levels. Watching a break above $325 with volume to see it continue run up into earnings.
Gold BreakoutLike the seasons, the markets appears to be attempting a shift. I made a recent post about long term treasury yields flipping bullish this month so far and now Gold appears to be doing the exact same thing as it has seen a beautiful breakout of a descending broadening wedge.
This is one of the more bullish patterns that exists, which means if this monthly candle shown on the chart confirms, big things could be in store for the precious metal.
Keep a close eye on this and the stock market as a whole as the year goes on. If big money starts aggressively piling their cash into hedges such as gold and bonds, that could mean bad things for many of the overvalued stocks out there.
This would especially mean bearish things for speculative tech stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Short Gold
30 Min chart divergence is clear and looks like the DXY is about to pop.
General weakness in the market will mostly likely take gold down too.
A couple of VPOCs below as well.
Manage your risk!
Closing (IRA): GLD September 17th 150/July 23rd 166... long call diagonal for a 15.43/contract credit.
Comments: Money, taking, running on this (which was pretty much my original intention if I got the move). My cost basis was 13.88, (See Post Below), so my profit is the difference between what I closed it for (15.43) minus my cost basis (13.88) or 1.55 ($155)/contract. 1.55/13.88 = 11.2% ROC. Naturally, there could be continuation, but the most I can make out of this diagonal is the width of the spread (16.00), and I'm not sure I want to hang out another 17 days (the duration of the front month), since it's been flopping back and forth across that 166 mark for a bit (which is where I'd need price to finish above to realize max).
GLD LongGold is still accumulating and might go a little deeper before the next up rise move. But it's ok for a long-term holding.
90% BUY / 100% HOLD
Estimated PO $200 area
$AAPL $AMZN $NVAX $GLD I OptionsSwing WatchlistAMZN 1D I As AMZN earnings approach on 07/29, we are seeing AMZN about to retest ATH levels, expecting a breakout.
AAPL 1D I After the breakout from our triangle AAPL running non-stop to retest ATH levels, earnings on 07/27 will decide where it goes.
GLD 1D I After breaking out from a bull flag back, we are seeing GLD retrace back and possibly making a double bottom near $165.
NVAX 4H I Is breaking out from a downtrend with volume, we are expecting to see a run up into its earnings on 08/09.
Rolling (IRA): GLD July 16th 166 to July 23rd 166... for a .36/contract credit.
Comments: Here, just rolling the short option leg of my GLD diagonal (See Post Below) while price is right at the short call strike to bring in a little bit more credit, reduce cost basis further, and improve my break even a smidge. I originally filled this for 14.24 (See Post Below), so my cost basis is now 14.24 - .36 or 13.88 and my break even 150 (the long call strike) + 13.88 or 163.88. Max profit potential now the width of the spread (16) minus my cost basis of 13.88 or 2.12.
Hex is about to break out into the teens - shortly.The charts look great against #USD
but also against #eth #btc #ltc and #doge
GDXJ Arc indicates low risk entry with 250% upside The fun side of the arc in the junior miners is currently playing out. At the moment, we reside at the edge of the arc, which presents a very low risk high reward entry. Completion of the arc would indicate a gain of around 250% + overshoot, in an 18 months timeframe.
