Bearish signals for BitcoinHistorically, the DMI cross has helped confirmed a change in the trend
CRYPTOCAP:BTC has been forming a 8-month base at resistance levels
The -DM has been above the +DM for 8 weeks
Still price is king, let's see if the digital gold can catch up with the fisical gold AMEX:GLD
GLD
GOLD Makes A Big Move Targeting $2720Even though my Gold Cycle Patterns suggested Gold would consolidate a bit in early trading this week, the big breakout move today shows just how undervalued Gold really is.
Yes, my Gold Cycle Patterns did not predict this upward price move clearly.
This is an example where my patterns/expectations did not match exactly what price did. it happens.
You could say my expectations were a bit behind the trend or the trend was a bit ahead of my expectations - but either way this move surprised me.
Clearly, gold is making a big move and my upper target is 2710-2720.
Today's move will likely stall out near 2685, then contract to levels near 2670-2675.
Remember, Gold really wants to rally up to 2710-2720+. So, you have quite a bit of time to play this move efficiently.
Get some.
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Gold: Three Accelerating Up Trend Lines and SupportFor consideration: Hold if currently owned. If not, buy at $2,550, a 2.9% decline from the current price. This price touches the current up trend line. Put a stop loss at $2,500. Ride the up trend and sell with a material penetration. The trend is a series of three accelerating up trends so the steepness indicates it may not be sustainable. Plus, RSI has touched 70 twice recently meaning it's getting overbought. Note the two resistance and support levels at $2,288 and $2,072: 13% and 21% price declines respectively. If prices bounces off either of these supports, buy. These are my technical ideas based on price and trend analysis. I could be wrong and would be careful with such a steep existing trend established.
Is Gold signalling a crisis? Gold is going parabolic and typically that doesnt mean a good thing.
Now there are many reasons this could be rallying and likely a combination of the few.
- Fed Rate Cut
- Geo political tension
- Weak Fiat currencies
- Currency Crisis
- Weakening economies
In a time where gold enters these monthly extreme RSI moves it typically signals a good time to start trimming.
Gold usually goes through a multi month correction but this could also spill into other asset classes.
As the steepening effect on the 10y/2y finally was confirmed today, large macro implications could follow and this is exactly what Gold confirmed this week.
Bitcoin Outlook For September-December 200k-400k Trend
Bitcoin Outlook For September-December
Today we take a look at the Bitcoin price and we also cross check this with the spot Gold price.
Gold is a leading indicator for where a bulk of major capital flows when navigating the market and this is due to Gold being a safe haven next to Government bonds to park capital when you know governments will start forcing rate cuts with chance of QE + YCC.
Historically Gold clearly shows us the rallies prior the capital rotating into risk on assets, we saw it in 2017, 2020, and now we see it in 2024. If history repeats this would reprice Bitcoin to over $200,000 - $400,000 and this would start the next phase of the bull market.
Spot ETF Flows are strong, institutions have tested marketing strategies, Blackrock is currently pushing to enable the derivatives layers on top of the Spot ETF's.
I have compiled and tested Spot ETF data and I have found the Spot ETF to have a 3.32 impact for every dollar. To get to the price target of 400k total Spot ETF AUM would need to total 363.19B (Currently $52.04 billion).
Conclusion
This is feeling more and more like $2,200 during July 2017 shortly after prices rallied to $5,690 by October 2017, a similar repeat would take the price to $150,000.
Institutions are accumulating slowly based on the dips indicating they are trying to keep the price under an amount like $100,000 that could trigger a rush back into Bitcoin by retail. Balances of > 100 Bitcoin and of > 1,000 are slowly starting to rise.
Balances of > 0.1 & > 1.0 & > 0.01 have started to trend sideways reducing each month indicating a sense of "boredom" where retail is selling and institutions are accumulating these bored coins.
MSTR remains to be one of the bullish stocks relating to Bitcoin and when institutions launch a large marketing campaign and start mutual fund allocations the MSTR / Multiple to NAV will experience large volatility.
The cycles are similar but the game has changed, all the money in the world has access to the Bitcoin market and there's less than 3,000,000 coins left to purchase. Once the next stage of this market begins it will be met with shock by retail and news around the world.
Extra Math Notes
Ratio of Exchange Balance to Active Supply:
3,000,000 #BTC (Exchange Balance)
Ratio ≈ 0.301
9,964,872.56 BTC (Active Supply)
Spot ETF AUM has a 3.32 Price Impact
400k = 363.19b
I have figured out this formula by taking the exchange balances / Active Supply of Bitcoin that is lively the last years and not lost or total supply, getting the ratio and figuring out how much the Spot ETF moves the Bitcoin price.
Gold futures: possible path to $3k - down then upIt looks like wave 3 is about to reach its climax soon as EWO indicator shows Bearish divergence with the rising price.
Wave 4 down could drop to the valley of smaller wave 4 around $2,285 and touch the downside of very beautiful uptrend. It should stay above the top of wave 1 at $2,085 otherwise the wave count could be invalidated.
Wave 5 in commodities is usually extended, $3k target doesn't look impossible though.
$GLD short term top? Buy the dip at $177 or lower?AMEX:GLD looks like it's putting in a top here. While I do think commodities have started longer term bull trends, I think if we see a big move down in risk assets, commodities won't escape the bearish move.
I think it's likely that we reverse from this level and find support somewhere between $177-169 region.
However, I'm not ruling out the possibility of a larger move down. Supports on the charts.
After we see a major correction, I'll look for long-term entries as I think that move down will start the next bull run.
Gold will move to 2800
Last week gold completed its 4th wave expanded triangle which E wave forming a complex "abcde" as depicted in the picture.
This is valid according to wave theory that E wave of triangle or Y wave of complex correction could extend into another set of "abcde" pattern, each leg containing 3 waves.
Price move to new all time high confirms the completion of expanded triangle and now it should move t 2800 where it is 1.618 fib from previous 2011 high.
As I said before in previous idea, as long as price is above 1.382 fib around 242x, it should find its way to 1.618 fib.
Invalidation point: 2450
1st Target: 2530-2550
2nd Target: 2650-2670
Last Target: 2790-2810
See also my previous idea below.
GOLD Plan Your Trade For 8-7 : Huge Dual-Leg Rally Setup $2550+Gold is setting up a unique dual-leg rally phase, and traders need to be aware of this before the move is complete.
The recent panic setoff by the BOJ unsettled the markets - including Gold.
The Yen Carry-trade unwound over the past 5+ days - resulting in a very consolidated downward price trend in Gold.
I believe Gold is about to make two very big moves to the upside.
The first move will be quick. Probably lasting only 2 or 3 days.
The second move may be a bit longer, but it has the ability to rally well above $2550 as Gold reverts higher.
Please pay attention to this video if you follow Gold. Gold as a hedge is one thing. This move is related to the reversion pressure and the protection of currency devaluation after the past 3+ weeks of global decoupling.
I believe this next rally in gold will be explosive (min upside target $2550 or higher).
Get some.
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GOLD Plan Your Trade 7-31 - Gold Reaches Upper Flag ChannelPrepare for Gold to move into a consolidation phase lasting 5 to 10 days before moving higher again.
The next upper target area is $2560++.
Watch this video and consider what I see as a structural Flag formation.
Gold will continue to attempt to move higher - but it will do so in structural price waves.
If you are holding any open long positions, be prepared to protect those positions as I see Gold flagging sideways (attempting to contract downward) in about 2~3 days.
The current upward price move appears to be over.
Get some.
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Gold: A Strategic Asset in an Uncertain WorldGold's appeal as a safe-haven asset has been reinforced by recent geopolitical tensions. This analysis explores the factors driving gold prices, including geopolitical risks, economic conditions, and the role of gold ETFs.
Gold has proven its resilience as a safe-haven asset during times of uncertainty. Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have fueled demand for gold. While economic factors also influence gold prices, the metal's role as a portfolio diversifier remains compelling. Consider gold ETFs for convenient exposure.
Gold serves as a valuable safe-haven asset, particularly during times of geopolitical instability.
Key Points:
Geopolitical Risks: The article highlights the increasing geopolitical tensions globally and their impact on financial markets. The Middle East, in particular, is identified as a region of significant concern.
Gold as a Hedge: Gold's unique characteristics, such as liquidity, store of value, and diversification benefits, make it an effective hedge against geopolitical risks.
Economic Factors: While geopolitical factors are emphasized, the analysis acknowledges the influence of economic conditions, including interest rates and inflation, on gold prices.
Investment Vehicles: Gold ETFs, like the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), are presented as convenient options for investors seeking gold exposure.