GLD
Gold Is Making a Decision, back to $1820 or $2000Watch for downward pressure on the RSI. We have a descending triangle with Bollinger Band compression providing a slightly bearish outlook. If we drop down below $1900 I would not expect support until $1820. It's possible to move sideways for a bit, and then go back up to $2000 or higher. This is not financial advice!
2020 Gold ATH chart vs 2011 Gold Ath chart $GLD $DXY $Sil #Goldsee full chart & Follow at www.tradingview.com
What's the significance of this?
KEY TAKEAWAYS
-Gold has long been considered a durable store of value and a hedge against inflation.
-Over the long run, however, both stocks and bonds have outperformed the price increase in gold, on average.
-Nevertheless, over certain shorter time spans, gold may come out ahead.
Gold vs. Stocks and Bonds
When evaluating the performance of gold as an investment over the long term, it really depends on the time period being analyzed. For example, over a 30-year period, stocks and bonds have outperformed gold, and over a 15-year period, gold has outperformed stocks and bonds.
Over the past 30 years, the price of gold has increased by around 280%. Over the same period, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has gained 839%.
If we look instead over the past 15 years, the price of gold has increased by 278%, roughly the same as the 30 year. Over the same period, the DJIA increased by only 173%.
So, over the longer term, stocks seem to outperform gold by about 3-to-1, but over shorter time horizons, gold may win out. Indeed, if we go way back to the 1920s through today, stocks blow gold away.
Turning to bonds, the average annual rate of return on investment-grade corporate bonds going back to the 1920s is around 5.25%. That indicates that over the past 30 years, corporate bonds have returned around 450% - nearly double that of gold. Over a 15-year period the return on bonds and gold has been fairly comparable.
how much is gold up in the last 12 months? 25%
Stock market in the last 12 months ? Spy 7% Dow 1.6%
Hmmmmm?
Lots of action in the metals - back in MGC/GLDFor active traders, the market action in the metals has been tremendous over the past month. We posted a short idea yesterday in copper HGU2020. The market is higher than our entry.
The 7-day ATR in the GC is over $55 and we saw a nearly 4% decline in today's session. BTC and cryptos followed along lower. We're entering a long position MGCZ2020 based on a Ext Buy on the 1H timeframe. Chose to keep the position small given the large recent ranges and frankly because we got smacked around a bit today in our day-trading accounts in the big contract.
Long MGC 1933, stp 1899, tgt 2003. Also adding back in to GLD Oct 185/195 Bull Calls at 2.75. We scaled 50% of original position at 3.5 yesterday.
Gold waves - almost done correcting?Gold has been in a correction since the ATH. It seems to be above recent trend line resistance. I also see a bear flag in the divergence indicator. Not saying it is done correcting yet, but maybe it is close? If it matters, silver still looks to be correcting and not as bullish as gold.
Hope this helps.
Gold: Head & Shoulders$XAUUSD (4 hour chart): head and shoulders pattern. I believe gold will drop to the trend line in the near future, which should provide a great buying opportunity. My target box is noted in pink.
I'm not a professional or analyst. Just seeing what I see, and sharing it with you.
$GLD $IAU $SLV $XAUUSD
Gold looking for 1800Gold prices had (as expected to clip above 2000) reached 2089 and rolled over.
Previously mentioned that Gold was looking for a lower low in the 1H chart, and it happened, breaking down past 1950. This also broke down below the 55EMA.
It now has a clear lower high, and is aiming for a lower low on the 4H chart; retesting 1950 and likely to fail soon to go down below 1930. This would see a downside target of 1800.
Note the dim yellow arrows in the background which were drawn earlier in March to map out a predictive positioning of gold...
GLD medium term target 204As previously suggested, GLD touched 194 before correcting down to 178-181 gapfill, which has completed as of Aug 12th.
Now a bull flag has formed, 180 needs to hold for original bull thesis, with GP_C2 zone 179-180 being support. Bulls would want a decisive break out above the falling resistance as a confirmation for next attack towards 200. A couple of inside bars in the next sessions to consolidate between 182-185 would be ideal.
Looking for a measured move to 204.8 in the next few weeks.
Current position: LONG
Disclaimer: These should be seen as the commentator's Notes to Self. Hopefully educational but aiming for entertaining. No legal or financial liabilities should be pursued from these materials.