Gold May Be Headed LowerI know a lot of people are bullish on gold because—alongside other precious metals and Bitcoin—it is the obvious play against the expectation of inflation stoked by the vast, worldwide central bank increase in the supply of money. But, there are a few points I want to make.
Technicals: I haven't been particularly happy with many of the charts I see people posting. The structures over the last few weeks don't make any supremely clear forms. Many people are seeing a consolidation right now in the short term, expecting a further move up. That may be the case. But I'm not happy with the look of it.
Going back a few months it may be possible to see a rising wedge, and I like the look of this much better. The wild swings we had during the COVID-19 crash are what contribute to many of the classical structures having a bad look to them, but if we understand those swings as false breakouts and a breakdown from this wedge, we get a much cleaner look. And the consolidation we have been seeing lately would fit the description of a classical overshoot at the end of that wedge, prior to an ultimate breakdown. We see a similar wedge and overshoot in the Nasdaq, for instance, a sign of buyer exhaustion.
What one would like to see in a pattern like this is a falling RSI, where the price action of the commodity or equity in question is making higher highs while the RSI is making lower highs, and that is just what we see here in gold (I have labeled the RSI numbers at various new highs). That is chronic weakness.
Fundamentals: I have a couple of points to make here. The first is that when the market crashed in February and March, there was a rush to physical gold, complicated of course by the shutdowns. Much of that rush came in the form of retail buying. Many local coin shops ran quickly out and many websites were also sold out of just about every kind of coin and bar (in both gold and silver). That is retail moving to physical and like any other asset class, normally that is a sign of a top, not a precursor to a longer-term move to the upside.
Furthermore, the initial crash earlier this year had all the hallmarks of a deflationary event. Of course the Fed intervened to prevent that from continuing. But I am not yet convinced that that deflationary force has run its course. And in fact, the Fed's unprecedented intervention may only have set us up for a second, perhaps even larger crash now. And the deflationary forces we saw may rear their heads again. That is, in a time of catastrophe, people will need dollars far more than they will need gold. And so heavy selling might return.
In sum: we may see an intermediate drop in the price of gold (weeks, months), but the inflationary forces may actually kick in at some point, after which gold may see heights few of us can even imagine. But that may still be some time away.
GLD
GLD breaking out soon!For those in Singapore, on the Straits Times Index, O87 aka GLD is just about to break out of the triangle, having broken out of the MACD trendline, and into the bullish territory at the same time (yesterday).
This is a bullish indication, which needs a price break out of the triangle with committed volume to follow.
We will know as it turns into July...
Targets are 172, and up to 188 possibly in mid-August.
Gold coiling to break out; aiming for to 2100Gold is coiling to breakout, having showed, of late, strength in holding up despite some selling pressure. Previously coiled, faked out and fallen back into a continued coil, it is running out of space, as the triangle/pennant comes to the end of the tip, as well as the 55EMA coming upwards in support.
MACD has just crossed up into the bullish territory, and now what is needed is momentum with volume support to break out, through the circle drawn.
This move is suggested to be a little more explosive, so let’s see...
Gold (AUD) since 2007- Secular bull market.Gold (AUD) has been in a secular bull market since the early 2000s
Four easily identified formations (last 3-4 years each). The current formation still has a way to go to be 3-4 years old.
Ascendening Broadening wedges, Falling wedge, Up channel, Slight ascendening broadening wedge or Up channel (current formation).
Bearish on Africa Gold minerWhy the Bearish on Gold miner?
Africa is shut Down for 14 days!, all mining activity shutdown!
Most Africa based miners are DOWN!!
Pending follow up with more EURO shutdowns.
sooo?
SOOOOO, This company is up because Gold is UP, Please buy it because they think it's GOLD!
EVEN So, people only buy gold due to fear of recession bets and fear of the weak dollar.
But guess what? GOld will crash if we have a flash crash anyways!!!
that means, we will win, if market crashes hardcore, and we would win if market continues to rally up and cancels recession fear.
Win WIN
AU- Short Shares
IDEAL on Short entry - $24.50
Buy to cover $16.23
buy to cover Trailing stop $4
Gold - To $1750 an Ounce?Gold - Who doesn't love gold? Well it's going to cost you. Gold going to 1750 unless breaks trend line? Entries at trend line with tight stops increases your risk to reward ratio. Do you have the GOLD Finger to take over the world? Haaa Haaa Haaa Haa!!!!
Market Hyenas - Everyone Eats!!
Gold broken out for next leg rallyGold, as it appears, has broken out. System Buy signal should be along shortly,
Fundamentally, on the back of a topping equity market, and the Fed statement that QE infinity and low rates will be around until 2023, it probably triggered some Gold buying.
Technically, after bouncing off the 55EMA, Gold apparently broke out of the triangle, and MACD crossed up in support. Look for the MACD (signal) to crossover above 0, and further price upward movement with momentum and volume (commitment).
Immediate upside target over next two weeks is 1850, with a higher upside target of 1970 by mid-August.
Note the previous ideas posted about Gold, as the breakout develops. A good learning journey...