EUR/USD FundamentalThe EUR/USD pair is influenced by a variety of fundamental factors, including:
Euro-Zone Factors:
Economic Growth: The Eurozone's economic growth rate relative to the US economy plays a significant role. Stronger growth in the Eurozone tends to support the Euro.
Inflation: The European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decisions, particularly interest rate adjustments, are influenced by inflation levels. Higher inflation can lead to tighter monetary policy, which may strengthen the Euro.
Political Stability: Political events and uncertainties within the Eurozone, such as elections or government instability, can impact market sentiment and the Euro's value.
US Factors:
Economic Growth: The US economy's growth rate relative to the Eurozone is a key factor. Stronger US growth can strengthen the US Dollar.
Inflation: The Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy decisions, including interest rate adjustments, are influenced by US inflation. Higher inflation can lead to tighter monetary policy, which may strengthen the US Dollar.
Political Stability: Political events and uncertainties within the US, such as elections or government instability, can impact market sentiment and the US Dollar's value.
Global Factors:
Risk Appetite: Global risk sentiment can affect both currencies. During periods of increased risk aversion, the US Dollar, often considered a safe-haven currency, may strengthen.
Commodity Prices: Fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly oil, can impact both economies. Rising oil prices can benefit the US economy, while it can negatively impact the Eurozone, which is a net importer of oil.
Geopolitical Events: Global geopolitical events, such as wars or trade tensions, can influence both currencies.
Additional Considerations:
Market Sentiment: Overall market sentiment, including investor confidence and risk appetite, can impact the EUR/USD pair.
Technical Analysis: Technical analysis, which involves studying price charts and patterns, can provide insights into potential price movements.
Central Bank Interventions: Central bank interventions, such as currency market interventions or changes in monetary policy, can significantly impact the EUR/USD pair.
It's important to note that the EUR/USD is a complex pair influenced by a multitude of factors. Staying informed about economic indicators, central bank policies, and geopolitical events is crucial for understanding the pair's dynamics. Additionally, consulting with financial experts or using reliable market analysis tools can help you make informed decisions when trading or investing in the EUR/USD.
GLEN
Glencore is still a short but there will be a big super cycleGlencore is still a short opportunity but mid-2022 looks to be the end of long run commodity bear trend. The company has a diversified basket of commodities, including nickel, which is famous because of electric vehicles.
*This is not a financial advice.*
GLEN: Glencore is in a strong uptrendI'm long $GLCNF/$GLEN here. I like the outlook for Cobalt, as the EV race intensifies. Supply of this metal is constrained, and as demand surges, prices will follow, intensely.
With some luck, I'm correctly calling the bottom of this pullback, which gives us a low risk to join this trend. I'm already positioned from lower levels in $VALE, and also in $BHP, and $GLEN was the missing piece for my portfolio that gravitates around this and other themes currently.
Best of luck if joining me here,
Cheers.
Ivan Labrie.