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Globaleconomy

S&P at support, will it break it or make a U-turn ??!!S&P trading at 2509. It made a recent low of 2345 which is a very stong support. Right now it did bounce from that support, but in coming days will it protect that support or will break it. Time only will tell but chances are that it will not break that support as from the Elliot Wave perspective this fall from the all time high clearly looks like an ABC . If at all it breaks then 2130 is in place which is the next important level. One can wait for the appropriate levels and act accordingly.
TVC:SPX
by trademaker88
Epidemic is fading & expanding, the Germany recessionThe basic news background is still unchanged: the number of new cases in China is decreasing (+/-500 per day), that is, the epidemic is decreasing. But this is offset by an increase in the number of cases outside of China. And an epidemic from local is increasingly striving to become global. Lockdown in Northern Italy, panic in Iran, growth in the number of cases in South Korea (already under 1000), lower forecasts for financial results from leading companies - all this puts pressure on risky assets, the outcome of which continues. Experts continue to voice new estimates of the damage caused by the epidemic to the global economy. For example, at Oxford Economics Ltd. voiced a specific damage figure: minus $1 trillion of global GDP. Recall that the damage includes direct losses from the downtime of the Chinese economy, losses in tourism and entertainment, as well as in the destruction of global supply chains, a decrease in global trade and investment. At the same time, news about the development of an effective vaccine (the release is scheduled for April), as well as about the desire to allocate about $ 2.5 billion to the Trump administration to fight the epidemic and develop a vaccine, helped to temporarily defuse the situation, which made it possible yesterday to buy gold at great prices. In general, the tactics of buying gold on the slopes proved to be quite effective. So today we will continue to use it, especially since yesterday gave clear price guidelines - where the price might go. Macroeconomic statistics naturally continue to remain in the shadow of news about the epidemic. Nevertheless, we continue to monitor the state of the global economy. Germany reported yesterday on GDP growth rates in the fourth quarter of 2019. Growth turns up zero. Thus, the recession in the leading Eurozone economy was delayed for 3 months. But it looks almost inevitable. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, pretty upset buyers in the oil market. The point is that OPEC+ was never able to agree on anything. Against the background of expectations of a decrease in oil demand in the world, the news looks like a bearish signal. Recall that we recommend looking for points for oil sales - the fundamental background is so far extremely negative. Well, do not forget to sell euros on growth, as, for example, this could be done yesterday. The economic situation in the Eurozone looks extremely unsightly, and the visit of the coronavirus to Italy (over 200 patients) makes the sale of the euro, in our opinion, an almost risk-free transaction. Our basic positions today are unchanged: we are looking for points for buying gold (but we are careful - we buy on the slopes with mandatory stops), we sell oil, we sell EURUSD, we buy GBPUSD, we sell USDJPY with small stops.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
2
China comes back to life, experts calculate lossesChina yesterday began to actively restore economic and industrial activity in the country. Judging by official figures, the epidemic has begun to decline, so there is reason to believe that the worst is over. In this light, yesterday's growth in demand for risky assets is generally explainable. Perhaps the global economy in general, and China in particular, will get off easily. At least Bloomberg analysts believe that the impact of the epidemic on the economy will be extremely short-term. Although they note, in the first quarter of China's GDP growth will slow down to 4.5%. In general, the uncertainty with economic damage is likely to be a factor restraining another bout of unbridled optimism in the financial markets. The fact is that its scope can be more serious and tangible. For example, Simon McAdam from Capital Economics believes that the coronavirus will cost the world economy $ 280 billion and ultimately lead to the fact that the world economy in the first quarter of 2020 will not grow for the first time since 2009. JPMorgan analysts expect China’s GDP to grow by only 1% y/y in the first quarter (they predicted an increase of 6% y/y before the epidemic). Goldman Sachs expects the coronavirus to subtract 2% from the global GDP. And Morgan Stanley recently proposed how to measure the real extent of the downtime of the Chinese economy - by analyzing the level of air pollution. According to their calculations, air pollution in Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Chengdu is only 20-50% of historical values. This may mean that human activity here (transportation and industrial production) is only 50-80% of the usual. In general, the optimists or pessimists will determine the dynamics of prices in financial markets on who ultimately turns out to be right. Uncertainty just hangs in the air, which means that for now, it is better to trade inside the day with small stops. We will look for points to buy gold and the Japanese yen intraday. We will sell oil at the time of its growth. Also, we will buy the British pound. Yesterday's data on GDP (+ 1.1% y/y against the forecast of 0.8% y/y) and industrial production (+ 0.1% against the forecast + 0.3%) did not give rise to sales and important support 1,29. So, a rebound up is quite likely.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
4
Time "X" is getting closer, Boris may be celebrating his victoryIn yesterday’s review, we already noted that this week may be decisive for several financial assets, and the global economy as a whole. On December 15, the United States may introduce tariffs on goods from China and thus bring trade wars to a new level. It's entirely up to an agreement between the parties. Even though we have heard positive statements for more than a month, the situation looks more and more menacing day by day. Although the probability of the successful completion of the first phase of trade negotiations between the United States and China is quite high, we will continue to look for points to buy safe-haven assets today. This recommendation will remain relevant until the actual conclusion of the contract. Meanwhile, in the foreign exchange market, is getting ready for Johnson's victory in parliamentary elections in the UK. According to recent polls, the Conservative Party will be ahead of the Labor Party by at least 10%. Recall, for Brexit, this means the end of the story - Johnson will be able to present his version of the deal Britain will finally leave the EU with the deal. For the pound, this is a powerful fundamental positive background. In this regard, we continue to recommend the purchase of the pound. It may well grow in the foreseeable future by several hundred pips. Since we are talking about the pound, we note that today will be published statistics on the UK. So you need to act with an eye on the data on GDP, trade balance and industrial production. Speaking of our other trading ideas for today, they are unchanged. Oil purchases still seem like a great idea to us in light of the latest OPEC + decision. Dollar sales are also promising.
by Trade24Fx
1
BTC – what if – Part V – Global Economies – Long-termHi Guys! As short term we can expect a small correction on BTC, long-term we are sure it will be worth hundreds of thousands dollars and it will revolutionize at least modern economy. As we love infographics (who doesn’t ? ) we want to share with you another hypothetical money influx into the crypto market. So today we are mesmerized by the infographic provided by weforum.org with cooperation with again Jeff Desjardins (Visual Capitalist). Here is the link www.weforum.org The latest estimate from the World Bank puts global GDP at roughly $80 trillion in nominal terms for 2017. Once you click on the link you will find visualization called Voronoi diagram. You will find there, major economies with data which say how much each economy contribute to the global economy (in %) as well as the nominal amount of goods(in US dollar) they produced in 2017. So here are a couple of examples • USA – $19,38T (nearly 25% of the global economy) • China – $12,24T (nearly 15,4% of the global economy) • Japan – $4,87T(nearly 6,13% of the global economy) • Germany – $3,68T (4,63% of the global economy) • UK – $2,62T (3,3%of the global economy) • France – $2,58T (3,25% of the global economy) • India – $2,6T (3,27% of the global economy) • Brazil – $2,06T (2,59% of the global economy) • Canada – $1,65T (2,08% of the global economy) Current BTC dominance is 54% and the current market cap is $114 billion So let’s do the math. Let’s assume just one tiny 1% of the global annual economy which is $800 billion. It means $432 billion goes to BTC. When we add 114 to 432 it will give $544 billion which is nearly 480% gain. It means the price of the single Bitcoin would be nearly $32000. This looks pretty awesome, doesn’t it? We will repeat these calculations with regard to certain numbers which are given above. • USA alone – the price of the single BTC would be $13 000 • China alone - the price of the single BTC would be $10 400 • Japan, Germany, UK, France - the price of the single BTC would be $10 931 • India, Brazil, Canada – the price of the single BTC would be $8600 So our dear! Remember to be an evangelist of the crypto and BTC. Tell everyone how great and big invention it is! Tell them how we can use them. Tell them how many aspects of the economy wait for such solution presented by the crypto. DO IT EVERY DAY AMONG YOUR FRIENDS, NEIGHBOURS, FAMILY MEMBERS AND AT WORK. Try to convince them to buy some crypto. It will pay off. In the end, all of us will earn money and have a better future. REALLY! Please do share your thoughts with us regarding such scenario and this evangelist approach. ARE YOU IN? MASSIVE Hugs! WBM Team
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by WBM_Team
5