GM
MU inside day long opportunityThe whole stock market is in the rally mode again, inside bar is one of the most effective tool to take part in such market.
MU, as a cyclical stock most of the time, also made an all time high on Wednesday.
The other unbelievable low P/E stock GM also starts a rally, and I think if there are still continuation for this rally, a simple P/E correction to 10-12 times can create a huge rally for these names.
Of course, stocks won't suffer low P/E for no reasons; there are always skepticism for both MU and GM's business.
I'm not really that optimistic to say that they are going to make a REAL turnaround here, but a limited risk set-up to long to take part in the potential continuation is still a solid idea.
I'm trading ALDW oil, F, GMViewing the chart above, the vertical line represents the day Hurricane Harvey hit. These stocks; which fall in the automotive, home and oil industries; saw a substantial increase over the next month and all but oil is still seeing an increase.
Ford, GM, LPX and Alon. I have been mentioning and trading the first three, Alon (ALDW) is a new one for me.
ALDW appears to be forming a cup and handle going into this storm. The last storm caused ALDW to jump upward. At a p/e multiple of 16.38, this stock trades cheaper than say XOM, which is at 29.49. Also note that ALDW has a small capitalization of 739 million, making it fairly reactive to oil prices.
I'm using technicals, mainly RSI, for entry. I look for RSI to range around 50-65 on support, lower could mean a bearish move.
My portfolio holdings going through Q4,
FX trading - 10%
Swing/pattern trading - 30%
ALDW - 20%
F - 20%
GM - 20%
GM's post hurricaine rally could be coming to a haultWhen cars and homes were destroyed, those industries got a boost. LPX makes wood-panel sidings for homes and saw a 15% increase. Auto makers like GM saw a large increase as well this past month. Is it coming to an end for GM? Can it go higher? Is a good entry in sight? I believe so.
The trend angle increased, representing strength, and the price action in terms of ATR increased as well through the uptrend. However, the break through the 41.20 level on news of it's September increase was seen on lower volume than the previous day and ultimately closed below that level.
For me, I take this as a good time to sit on the sidelines and wait to see what happens. If it falls, then I will look for a good entry. Fundamentally, I see this rising over the next quarter.
GM: Rejoining the long side here, graduallyI like $GM here for a bottom against the yearly mode support. It also coincides with a strong support from the uptrend off the 2015 low, which makes me think it won't go any lower than this, despite possibly ranging sideways for a while longer before shooting up with force.
In the long term, $GM's valuation down here will let you sleep well at night, while waiting for the breakout in the quarterly timeframe. Target for it is over $57, so it will be worth it as a hold.
Yield is excellent for a company this size, I'm fairly confident that it will gain traction soon.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
A POSITIVE MOVING AVERAGE CROSS FOR GMOn March 24, 2017 the General Motors Company (GM), crossed above its 150 day moving average. Historically this has occurred 20 times since 2010. When this happens, the stock gains a minimum of 0.475%, has a median gain of 5.466% and maximum gain of 16.159% over the next 24 trading days. On March 23, 2017, the stock broke below the 150 moving average and broke above the moving average on the following day. This has occurred three times since August 2016 and the stock gained 6.686%, 5.674% and 16.159%.
Current General Motors chart from TradingView
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 32.6033. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock just flirted with the oversold mark and may begin to move upward.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -5.3793. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward which could be skewed due to the market drop on March 21. Even though it is pointing downward four of the last five times it was near this level, the stock reversed upward.
The negative vortex indicator (VI) is currently 1.3790. The VI determines current trend and direction. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward, but it is near the reverse point where the stock normally goes up big.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, and VI levels, the overall near-term stock direction appears to be trending upward. Based on historical movement compared to current levels, the stock could gain at least another 7.86% over the next four weeks.
DISCLOSURE: I currently do not have positions in the stock mentioned above. I most likely will not enter a position within the next 72 hours. Historical movements and technical indicators should never be the sole basis for entering positions involving risk. Make sure appropriate research is conducted prior to taking any risk in a marketplace.
GM short entry at top of price channel$GM is currently trading at the top of its price channel and is forming a shooting star pattern on its daily chart. Furthermore, it's also forming a sort of "micro" head and shoulders pattern with the two previous channel highs.
Looking at the hourly shows decreased volume, declining MACD, and declining RSI from yesterday. Combined this presents a very strong bearish divergence which we can take advantage of.
Strategy:
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Enter trade SHORT by COB today or on break of the hourly convergence pattern support line, whichever happens first.
Set price target at $35, but be aware that there will be resistance at the 37.25, 36.60, and 35.53 levels, which all may provide valid exit points. Again, see the hourly charts to clearly see the resistance points at these prices.
set stop loss at top of shooting star or a similarly sensible position.
GM: Daily viewGM is an excellent company to own for the long term. That being said, outside of a core long term position in it (something like 10% is perfectly fine), we can also trade and profit from volatility, both on the long side (adding trades with trailing stops, and adding to winners) and on the short side (selling calls against our long term longs to profit from corrections).
In this case, after today's news, we see that the daily has flashed a 'Time at mode' uptrend signal with a target at 39.57 that has to be hit before January 31st. Since this uptrend's time duration expires just before earnings, it might be wise to reduce your exposure to GM approaching the target, and date, or to at least hedge your downside to protect profits by selling calls. In the case of earnings sending prices way higher, this would ruin the upside, so, the alternative is to start trailing stops periodically (at least on your non-core-long term positions) to reduce risk.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
Portfolio update: I'm long a few thingsThis is how my equity portfolio looks on the long side -plus a stake in $RVLT-. I also have shorts in $NVDA and $NFLX, which -if we consider that $CEF and $TLT are pretty much like shorting the market-makes my portfolio 51% long, 1% in cash and the rest 'short'.
I'll hold this for the time being, watching the developments here onwards.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
GM: If you missed our entry at KHL...jump in!GM is a great long term long, and good beta exposure for your portfolio. Earnings yield is terrific, the weekly setup presents a long term uptrend in place, and it's at a good location to enter longs now. Again, size it to fit your risk criteria, but like the rest, 2% is fine. You can buy it gradually over a couple days too.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
GM break out is not overHistorically when the RSI breaks above this level, the stock continues to gain at least 1% more. In looking for the next trendline and resistance level, a conservative level would be above 38.00. While that level is likely the safer play is a call with anticipated movement to at least 37.67.
GM: Might retrace hereGM, being a high beta stock, really moves, when it does and I think we could see a pullback here before more upside, so it's a good idea to either sell calls against your longs, or simply taking profits and waiting to reenter longs lower, against support.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
GM: Great breakout opportunityGo long GM if we break out above last week's high here. Stop should be under last Friday's low.
Valuation is excellent for buys in GM, since they are currently extremely profitable and with great yield at these levels.
We can expect a nice rally to 33-35 without much problem.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.