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Gmercerfx

NZDUSD Big Short ContinuesHey traders! This one's a long shot but the risk is low and the setup fits my trading strategy. A bearish wolfe wave is complete after the trendline break was retested. The completion of E is confluent with the B-D parallel which is an indication that the pattern is complete and the trend may reverse. This reversal could mark the continued downturn of the pair toward the larger TF wolfe wave target and bottom of the daily TF triangle. See related idea for larger TF setup. GM
Short
by glennmercer
USDJPY Long: Multichannel ReboundUSDJPY may potentially produce a reverse head and shoulders pattern at the base of two descending channels. Two weekly pivots sit above price and are confluent with important fib levels. If price does not met entry, the trade will be cancelled and I may start to consider short opportunities. If SL is hit, there may be a wolfe wave complete just beyond the base of the demand zone. Bearish price action past 105.5 would indicate short bias. GM
Long
by glennmercer
USDJPY Long: Potential Expanding Triangle, Bat, Missed PivotsHey traders! USDJPY is approaching a potential reversal zone that could spark a large bullish move. A bullish bat is nearing completion near the descending trendline. Missed weekly and unhit weekly pivots sit above price. The .382 fib is also confluent with the missed pivot from last week which may signify a nice supply zone. Movement past the 1.272 mark could mean further bearish movement so that's where I put the SL. Targets at the nearest weekly pivot and the missed pivot from last week. Entry near point X of the bat should price reach those levels. This entry is also confluent with the short-term descending channel shown in gray.
Long
by glennmercer
1
AUDNZD Long: Expanding Wedge Complete at Critical LevelGreetings traders! AUDNZD has reached an important level. The 4H shows a nice expanding triangle that may add support near a potential point E. On the daily chart, there is strong support from a parallel channel. In addition to this, we have two precisely confluent fib levels (1.272AB=CD and 1.5AB extension). Since I'm seeing some pin rejection at the base of the channel, a tight stop may be placed below the pins. If price makes new lows, it is time to re-evaluate. If not, it may be possible to catch a larger move toward the missed monthly pivot for June which would mean major pippage and a trade with great R/R. Bullish Confluence: Expanding wedge support 1D Parallel channel support RSI Oversold 3 missed pivots above price, including an unhit pivot for June Happy trading!
Long
by glennmercer
1
NZDCAD Short: Wolfe Wave + Expanding Triangle at 50% RetraceAfter the RBNZ announcement cancelled the last NZDCAD short, a new opportunity has presented itself. A bearish WW has formed with the touch of the 2-4 parallel confluent with the 50% retracement level. We also have a potential E point of an expanding triangle complete which may mark a larger reversal from these levels. On the daily chart, the pair is contained within a bearish expanding triangle and this could present an opportunity to ride it down toward point E on the larger TF. The unhit pivot for June 2016 presents a nice target at which to take profit. Bearish Confluence: Bearish Wolfe Wave complete Expanding triangle 50% retracement level Descending expanding triangle on daily TF Unhit June, 2016 pivot below price Bearish RSI Divergence RSI Overbought Again, be mindful of news events. It is a good idea to wait until the Poloz speech at 11:15EST for entry as this may present significant CAD volatility. Happy trading to all!
Short
by glennmercer
AUDUSD Short: 5-0 Pattern, Channel Res, 50DSMA, and Weekly PivotHey Traders! It's been awhile since I've shared an idea, I've been working on automating my trading strategy! AUDUSD is approaching a critical level presenting us with an opportunity to enter a 2-3 week short with a nice R/R. The pattern that caught my eye is the bearish 5-0 which I've had success with in the past for 4H-1D charts. In addition to this, we have resistance from the weekly pivot, 50 day SMA, and a parallel channel confluent at the same level. Short entry is placed at the 5-0 "D" point with target at the 1.272 extension. I will likely move stop to B/E around the 50% move to target if triggered. Bearish Confluence: Bearish 5-0 pattern Bearish parallel channel resistance Weekly pivot resistance 50 day SMA resistance Bearish weekly channel Feels great to be back on TV, hope you enjoyed and good luck to all!
Short
by glennmercer
4
NZDCAD Short: Bat + Gartley + 2 Channels + Larger TF TriangleNZDCAD is forming a tight PRZ at which two potential harmonic patterns are tightly confluent. This area is also confluent with point 5 in an ascending channel and potential point 4 of a descending channel. Also, an AB=CD pattern, inherent to the completion of Gartley's, is confluent in this same area. On the higher TF, this move could mark the continuation down from the rebound at point E of the expanding triangle. Since there has already been a 50% retrace from point E, there is a potential to ride this move down to the completion of a bullish bat pattern which is where I've placed the target. Confluence in the PRZ: Bearish butterfly completion Bearish Gartley completion AB=CD Ascending channel resistance Descending channel resistance Larger TF expanding triangle Larger TF potential bullish bat Remember to assess your risk and be mindful of news events. The RBZ rate statement will be announced in under an hour!
Short
by glennmercer
AUDNZD Long: Breakout to Potential Bat CompletionAUDNZD has broken through the bullish channel center line and countertrend resistance. There is also a missed daily pivot above price which may add to bullish bias. Watch for resistance around the top of symmetrical triangle, BAMM line, and top of the rising channel. Entry is placed at the retest of the trendline with targets at bat point B and bat completion. SL is placed below structure lows for a R/R of 2.5 (T1) and 6.5 (T2). Bullish Confluence: Trendline breakout & retest Missed daily pivot above price Channel center line break
Long
by glennmercer
GBPCAD Long: Bullish Confluence with High R/RGBPCAD has completed a bullish bat on the 15m TF. Zooming out to 1HR we can observe a double bottom forming at the PRZ. Two longer-term trendlines provide added support at this level. The daily TL also forms a potential bottom barrier of a triangle pattern where the first bottom serves as touch four. Targets are placed at structure high and 1.272/1.618 extensions which are confluent with other important levels (see chart for details). SL is placed below recent lows for a R/R of over 18 if support holds. Wait for candle close for another bullish pinbar confirmation before entry for a more risk-averse approach. Shorter TF Bullish Bat Complete: Bullish Confluence: Bullish Bat Potential double bottom Daily TL Support 4HR Trendline Support Potential triangle forming on daily Bullish pinbars forming indicating buying pressure
Long
by glennmercer
4
GBPAUD Long: Breakout to New Monthly PivotGBPAUD has broken a bearish trendline and could possibly reach its new monthly pivot for February, 2016. This is a simple mean reversion trade based on structural S/R and a trendline breakout. Support may be found at the 200SMA and 200EMA lines in addition to S/R from structural lows. The short-term bullish trendline may also add support should price reach those levels. Entry is placed at the retest of the bearish trendline with SL below structural lows and target at the new monthly pivot.
Long
by glennmercer
1
Long AUDNZD: Bullish Bat into Wave-(5)-of-(c)AUDNZD may be completing its fifth wave in the third corrective wave of a larger degree correction. A bullish bat is complete at long term trendline breakout/retest to enter long. SL is placed at 1.13XA which is confluent with the invalidation level, wave-(1) overlap. 50EMA and 50SMA lines may provide additional support around entry. Target is placed at structure highs, although further bullish movement through the completion of wave-(c) is expected if highs are broken.
Long
by glennmercer