#202444 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold: Neutral. Bears got a minor pullback from the ath but only printed 1 decent bear bar before disappointment again. 2720 is probably next big support and I see the market rather moving sideways and retesting the highs before a bigger move down and a break of the bull trend line.
Quote from last week:
comment: Minor pullback by the bears but they can not get follow through selling and that is why we can only conclude higher prices. We are trading near the top of the bull channel but we can just continue to do so until we hit 2800, which is my next upper target. I do think around 2800 we will see some bigger profit taking.
comment: Decent pullback now on the daily chart but still far above the daily 20ema. Friday’s rejection at 2772 was good enough to expect this to break below 2740 for the second leg down. Problem for the bears is, that even if they break below 2720, the downside is probably limited to the bull trend line from August. So clearly a tough spot to trade. Any long closer to 2700 is better than closer to 2750. Same logic for shorts, I think 2800 continues to be a good level to sell and market moves more sideways instead of another break above that price.
current market cycle: bull trend but it’s getting weaker and we could already be in a trading range 2700-2800.
key levels: 2700 - 2800
bull case: Bulls want this to stay above the previous support 2720 and move sideways between 2720 and 2800. It would show great strength if they would not let the market test down to the bull trend line and move sideways instead. If they do this for a couple more days, bears will give up and try again around 2800. For now I don’t see bulls breaking 2800 again, since the rally was very climactic over the past months.
Invalidation is below 2680.
bear case: Bears finally printed some decent bear bars on the 4h chart and they want a second leg down to test the bull trend line around 2700. There we can expect some sideways movement and a battle for the big round number. Until it is clearly broken, I favor the bulls to continue sideways to up again and that 2700 is support.
Invalidation is above 2820.
outlook last week:
short term: Bullish for 2800. Again.
→ Last Sunday we traded 2754 and now we are at 2749. Perfect outlook, 2801 was hit on Wednesday and Thursday. Hope you made some.
short term: Slightly bearish for a test down to 2700-2710.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-03: For now I can’t see this breaking above 2800, since the rally was climactic. Until 2700 is broken, I expect sideways movement inside this range. Market should test down to the weekly 20ema over the next weeks/months but bears have absolutely nothing to show for since June and that’s why we can’t expect bigger selling until they clearly do more.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added potential two legged correction down to 2700
Gold-futures
2024-10-29 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Gold - 2800 is close, nothing is stopping this. BTFD. I expect bigger profit taking around 2800.
gold
comment: I gave the 2800 target a long long time ago and we are close. Only question is, where do you enter new longs? We have a decent channel upwards where the lower trend line is around 2760. Market also respected the 1h 20ema today. We have a big bull trend line from July right above us and that should be resistance until clearly broken. I can’t see this breaking above it, so I would rather buy on pullbacks and I do think there is a very good chance we will see a bigger correction once we reach 2800.
current market cycle: late bull trend
key levels: 2750 - 2800
bull case: Bulls want 2800, that’s it. Any pullbacks should stay inside the current channel and not go below 2760. The rally has become climactic and we can expect a pullback/correction soon.
Invalidation is below 2760.
bear case: Bears see the pattern which lead to around 2800 and it’s a big obvious number. Not many want to short this until market has reached it and they see more bulls taking profits. That is why we are currently in a big hurry to get to the target and bears are not fighting it. On the monthly chart this rally is beyond climactic already and I seriously don’t know if Gold ever printed bigger gains in 4 months or even 4 straight big green months at all. This price action is unsustainable and we will see a bigger correction over the next months.
Invalidation is above 2810.
short term: Bullish and you should not look for shorts until we have touched 2800 and bears build much greater selling pressure.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very strong breakout above, again. Market currently has no ceiling. Most likely 2700 next and I do think 3000 could be a potential target if we continue. There is certainly an argument for a measured move based on the bull rally from 2018-08 to 2020-08.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying the breakout around US open above 2770, which was a textbook breakout and good for 160 ticks. Also legit was buying the 1h 20ema, which could have been more profitable but with more risk since your stop had to be wider.
#202443 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold: Clear two legged pullback on the 4h chart. Could be enough for the bulls to take control again and go for 2800 on Monday/Tuesday. If they fail below 2780 again, we could see a more complex pullback down to 2700. Market is clearly still max bullish and I doubt we see better selling until we hit 2800 or even 3000.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bullish it was and still is. 2800 is the next big target to hit. After 4 very strong consecutive bull bars, you can not hold a bearish thought while the market makes daily new ath. Two upper bull trend lines are still to hit, one of them leads to 2760 and the other to 2800. On the monthly chart we are in a 8 month micro channel upwards without any selling pressure. At some point market will pull back more and we will see a correction but until we see much greater selling pressure, we can not trade on hope.
comment: Minor pullback by the bears but they can not get follow through selling and that is why we can only conclude higher prices. We are trading near the top of the bull channel but we can just continue to do so until we hit 2800, which is my next upper target. I do think around 2800 we will see some bigger profit taking.
current market cycle: very strong bull trend (trade the channel until it is clearly broken)
key levels: 2650 - 2800
bull case: All arguments are on the bull side, again. 2800 is the target. Anything below 2680 would surprise me. I don’t expect much interest from buyers above 2800 though.
Invalidation is below 2680.
bear case: Bears got nothing. Again. Daily 20ema is at 2700 and the lower bull channel line is not far from that. If bears get there before 2800, that would surprise me and I do not think those two supports have a decent chance of being broken. If they somehow manage to do so, 2620 would be the next support. I do not have any bearish thoughts about this market until we see 2800 and then much more sideways movement to conclude that market found resistance.
Invalidation is above 2820.
outlook last week:
short term: Bullish for 2800+
→ Last Sunday we traded 2730 and now we are at 2754. Meh outlook. Still not 2800 but we are probably getting there next week.
short term: Bullish for 2800. Again.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22 : Very strong breakout above, again. Market currently has no ceiling. Most likely 2800 next and I do think 3000 could be a potential target if we continue. There is certainly an argument for a measured move based on the bull rally from 2018-08 to 2020-08.
current swing trade: None
chart update: None
Gold reached all-time high and hit weekly targetHello traders,
As you can see gold reached all time high time record.And reached the weekly target as anticipated, so the analysis went to our favor and gave us a Great trade. After gold broke the fourr hour level, it Made a break and a retest and made a rebound on the one hour time frame at exactly 2673 The bullish momentum took place againand buyers.Took control of the market and pushed gold higher and higher until reached the weekly target.
After this long run making a tree leg extension as you can see on the chart, there is a high probability that the market will reverse.And we might see a huge sell off of gold in order to breathe until.Buyers and bullish momentum comes back again and takes the gold market higher again because this is very normal. After a long run being bulish or bearish.There should always be a big.Correction. Remember.After every long run there is a steep pullback and that's what we gonna see in the coming days. So guys.Be prepared for selling gold, but not this week, probably next week or the following week.
2024-10-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Gold - Bulls got the breakout above and got rejected at 2700 again. I think we will spend a bit more time at the highs until bulls give up or we find more buyers willing to buy above 2700. Right now I still favor the bulls for continuation but only willing to buy on strong momentum.
comment : Retest 2700 is done, now what? We have a proper channel, so trade it. 2690 right now is not a good spot. Wait for a closer price to the lower trend line or look for shorts near 2700, if bulls show weakness again. New highs inside the channel are getting sold, so you should not buy into strength but rather on pullbacks.
current market cycle: bull trend (also trading range on the daily chart - 2619 - 2710)
key levels: 2670 - 2710
bull case: Bulls will likely retest 2700 tomorrow. Can they get another big breakout above it? I think so but right now it does not look like it. I expect more sideways until the bull trend line on the daily chart is closer. Bulls still in full control and I would not look for shorts on this.
Invalidation is below 2670.
bear case: Bears selling new highs but thats about it. Market is grinding higher again and we are near the ath. Nothing bearish about this. Bears can start a case if they close below 2670 again.
Invalidation is above 2720.
short term: neutral - I would not buy 2700 in hope of 2710 but rather buy decent pullbacks inside the current channel.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very strong breakout above, again. Market currently has no ceiling. Most likely 2700 next and I do think 3000 could be a potential target if we continue. There is certainly an argument for a measured move based on the bull rally from 2018-08 to 2020-08.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Selling 2700.
#202440 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold: 2700 proved to be a good spot for a pullback, which should go a bit lower than 2668. Breakout price 2630, daily 20ema or the bull trend line around 2620 are all valid targets for the bears. We will only know the strength of the pullback once we know where bears sell it again, so we can draw proper support and resistance trend lines. Right now I think bears should not let it get above 2695 or market will go more sideways instead of a deeper pullback. It’s still max bullish until bears print below the daily ema again.
Quote from last week:
comment: I always think about wrong outlooks much more than about right ones. In this case, was the “no interest in buying this high“ the right call here and I would come to a yes in every scenario. Of course it was wrong and market made another 50 points but risk reward was so off, not taking it was the right move for me. Anyhow. Bulls confirmed another bullish structure and we have a bull wedge inside a very bullish channel upwards.
comment: Bulls hit 2700 as expected and we pulled back some. I do expect this pullback to become a great buying opportunity but I don’t know how far down bears can get it. Obvious magnets are the breakout price 2630, daily 20ema or the bull trend line around 2620.
current market cycle: Bull trend
key levels: 2 600 - 2710
bull case: Bulls want the pullback to be very shallow and mostly sideways. Anything above 2640 would be max bullish and an amazing buying opportunity. Not much else to tell you, since bears are having a really hard time making money in Gold. Look for longs.
Invalidation is below 2600.
bear case: Bears need to print some consecutive bear bars to have some arguments on their side again. They have many mentioned targets below but as of now, all of them are far aways for them. Biggest pullback last week was 50ish points and market already pulled back 43. Not sayin we can’t drop further but looking for shorts is currently a painful experience in Gold.
Invalidation is above 2710.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral. I won’t be buying 2646. Need a pullback.
→ Last Sunday we traded 2646 and now we are at 2668. Only 24 point difference to last week but wrong outlook anyhow. Bulls are insanely strong.
short term: Neutral and I will only look for longs in Gold. If bears show strength, I might try a small short scalp and hope for 2630 or lower and then I wait for bulls to come around again. Making money on the long side here is the way to go.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very strong breakout above, again. Market currently has no ceiling. Most likely 2700 next and I do think 3000 could be a potential target if we continue. There is certainly an argument for a measured move based on the bull rally from 2018-08 to 2020-08.
current swing trade: None
chart update: None
2024-09-12 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Gold - There it is. Another break above, which was expected more than bears breaking below 2500. Bulls want 2600 and I expect more profit taking and more sideways movement at that level. No interest in selling it.
gold
comment: New ath, which I have been writing about for many weeks now on the premise that as long as bears could not even break below 2500, there was no alternative to being bullish. The breakout was a matter of when and not if. Market refused to close below the daily ema for 5 days despite touching it 4 times. That’s strong bulls scaling into longs. What’s next? We are at the top of the bull channel and every time market made a new high, bulls took bigger profits. Will this time be different? I doubt it. Can bulls break above the bull channel for much higher prices? Doubt that too. Will look for weakness and scalp some shorts tomorrow.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 2500 - 2600
bull case: Bulls want 2600 and somewhat above to run stops. Nothing unexpected. I highly doubt that have bigger interest in printing much higher than 2600, given the previous sell offs after new ath. 15m 20ema was not touched on the whole move up, so look for longs once we get there before we hit 2600.
Invalidation is below 2550.
bear case: Bears gave up above 2560 and I can’t see them coming around big time below 2600 so don’t waste energy on looking for shorts until it’s clear that bulls have no interest in buying anymore. Bears need a break of the 15m and 1h ema to begin with.
Invalidation is above 2610.
short term: Bullish for 2600 and then only interested in shorts again.
medium-long term: Will update on the weekend. Bulls are clearly much stronger than most expected. Market refuses to go down.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day : If in doubt, zoom out. 1h chart showed only strength since Globex. Buy anywhere and make money.
#202437 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold: Neutral. All bull wedges broken but the broad bull channel continues. Market only moved sideways, so no deeper meaning to this. Bears could not get a single daily close below the daily ema. Unless that changes, bulls are heavily favored to try 2600. Bears are only allowed to speak again once they have a daily close below 2500.
Quote from last week:
comment: Weekly inside bar. I am not lazy but I do not see any value in making up more words to fill the page so you can stay busy longer reading this. Market is neutral around 2530. Bulls need a daily close above 2570 and bears one below 2500. That’s it. Structure is still bullish. We have a big bull wedge on the weekly/monthly chart, nested bull wedges on lower time frames and sort of a bull channel upwards. I very slightly favor the bears to test 2500 again but only because bears closed last week at the lows. Daily ema held for 3 weeks now and there is no reason why it should break now and we are only 10 points above it.
comment: 4th week between 2500 and 2570. 3rd consecutive bear bar on the weekly chart but does that mean this is bearish? Hell no. Bears still have no daily close below the daily ema and until that changes, bulls are in control but only barely anymore. The longer a trading range continues, the more neutral the market becomes and the odds for both sides are 50/50 again. No deeper meaning to this until we break below 2500 or above 2570.
current market cycle: Trading range for many months now and it’s probably coming to an end over the next weeks/months. Bulls are currently still trading above the previous highs, which is sort of confirmation of the breakout but I am not 100% convinced. Need a daily close above 2570 for that. —unchanged
key levels: 2400 - 2570
bull case: Bears not doing enough so bulls are happy to continue. They want 2600 next and have all arguments on their side as long as they stay above 2500.
Only updated 2517 to 2500. Still unchanged bull case for weeks now.
Invalidation is below 2500.
bear case: Nothing changed for the bears. Either stop the bulls below 2570 or give up for 2600 and potentially 2700 over the next weeks. Bears need a 1h close below 2500 badly. That’s it. Exactly the same sentences as last week. —unchanged
Invalidation is above 2570.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral. Clear invalidation levels for both sides. Set up alarms and be patient.
→ Last Sunday we traded 2527 and now we are at 2524. Hope you did not longed the highs or shorted the lows. Spot on outlook that was.
short term: Neutral. Clear invalidation levels for both sides. Set up alarms and be patient. —unchanged because we moved 3 points from Friday’s close to Friday’s close.
medium-long term: Above 2570 I will update this. Until then we are in a trading range 2400-2570.
current swing trade: None.
chart update: Removed bull gap to 2490. It’s still there on the weekly but it currently does not help with the daily/weekly updates.
#202436 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold: Bulls confirmed the breakout with a strong monthly close above 2500. There are multiple nested wedges currently and I would not buy into the highs but rather wait for a pullback or a breakout above 2570. Last thing you should do right now is to look for shorts until bears come around big time. Last time bears even touched the weekly ema was end of February.
Quote from last week:
comment: Did we learn anything from a sideways week? We have a bullish pattern and a technical textbook pullback a bit above the ema. Bulls bought it and that is bullish. But only a break above 2570 is confirmation. Resistance is always that until it breaks, no matter how strong you think the trend is/looks/feels and this trend inside a 5 month trading range is not strong so far. Bulls are trying the breakout and the monthly close will be the most important for them. If they manage their first close above 2500, it would be a confirmation and buy signal going into September. What could be a potential target above? Since the trading range was mostly between 2300 - 2500ish, we can do a measured move up and that would bring us to the ballpark around 2700.
comment: Weekly inside bar. I am not lazy but I do not see any value in making up more words to fill the page so you can stay busy longer reading this. Market is neutral around 2530. Bulls need a daily close above 2570 and bears one below 2500. That’s it. Structure is still bullish. We have a big bull wedge on the weekly/monthly chart, nested bull wedges on lower time frames and sort of a bull channel upwards. I very slightly favor the bears to test 2500 again but only because bears closed last week at the lows. Daily ema held for 3 weeks now and there is no reason why it should break now and we are only 10 points above it.
current market cycle: Trading range for many months now and it’s probably coming to an end over the next weeks/months. Bulls are currently still trading above the previous highs, which is sort of confirmation of the breakout but I am not 100% convinced. Need a daily close above 2570 for that.
key levels: 2400 - 2570
bull case: Bears not doing enough so bulls are happy to continue. They want 2600 next and have all arguments on their side as long as they stay above the daily ema at 2517.
Invalidation is below 2500.
bear case: Nothing changed for the bears. Either stop the bulls below 2570 or give up for 2600 and potentially 2700 over the next weeks. Bears need a 1h close below 2500 badly. That’s it. Exactly the same sentences as last week.
Invalidation is above 2570.
outlook last week:
short term: Exactly the same as last week. Bears had a pullback and bulls bought it. Inherently bullish but only if bulls can break above 2570.
→ Last Sunday we traded 2546 and now we are at 2527. High of the week was 2564. 19 point miss over a week is as good as it gets.
short term: Neutral. Clear invalidation levels for both sides. Set up alarms and be patient.
medium-long term: Above 2570 I will update this. Until then we are in a trading range 2400-2570.
current swing trade: None.
chart update: Removed unnecessary lines and made the bullish structure more clear.
2024-08-28 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Gold - The triangle broke above but bears sold it hard for a retest of the minor bull trend line at 2530. We are now in a nested wedge and the bigger but broader bull channel. Market is mostly moving sideways though. Expecting for the wedge to break tomorrow and it could go either way.
gold
comment: Globex session sold off for 24 points before EU opened. Market went mostly sideways afterwards but stayed below the 1h ema. I consider the triangle broken since we made a higher high again but it does not matter. Now its an ascending triangle and you trade them the same. Advice? Wait for the breakout and do not lose money in trading ranges unless you are super profitable trading them.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2500 - 2570
bull case: Bulls bought the bull trend line and kept it above 2530, which is still max bullishness. No more reading into this trading range at the highs. BTFD is going strong, don’t look for shorts.
Invalidation is below 2500.
bear case: Bears trying but failing. Best they can hope for is the market to continue to go sideways until it’s more neutral.
Invalidation is above 2570.
short term: Neutral between 2530-2570, bullish above and bearish below.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —unchanged for many months. Will do on update next weekend.
current swing trade : None
trade of the day: Buying the double bottom bar 9 + 13 but only for a scalp. If you weren’t short during Globex, best not to trade afterwards.
2024-08-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Gold - Bears created a pullback but could not even touch 2500. It’s a little less bullish as of now because the bull trend line broke but market is still above 2500 and the daily 20ema so odds favor another the bulls. If bears create follow through below 2500, I turn bearish for 2450 or lower.
comment: Neutral again at 2520 because we are right above the bull trend line from early August and near 2500, which is huge support for now. Odds favor the bulls to test the upper bear trend line around 2540 again. If bears manage to go into the weekend below 2500, this bull leg is most likely over again and we will test back to 2450 or lower.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2500 - 2570
bull case: Bulls still see this above 2500 and inside a trading range at the highs. They are trading above the daily ema and the bull trend line is still valid. I do think the bears will not fight them for 2500 on the first try, so odds favor the bulls to stay inside the current expanding triangle and test back to the upper trend line around 2540. A weekly close above 2540 would be max bullish.
Invalidation is below 2490.
bear case: Bears finally produced more selling pressure and closed at the lows. Whenever bears printed consecutive bear bars above 2500 over the past 4 months, market was not able to hold above and sold off again. Bears expecting this time to be the same, despite the new ath. They want a reversal to 2400 and their target for tomorrow is a close below 2500.
Invalidation is above 2550.
short term: Neutral between 2500-2520, bullish above and bearish below.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —adjusted 2450 to 2500
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Selling below bar 8 was decent. Stop had to be above bar 3. Market held below the 1h ema and there was decent selling pressure before.
#202434 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
Quote from last week:
comment: Easy analysis. We are 4 points above last weeks close. We are in a triangle and exactly at the midpoint, again. Market is as neutral as it gets. Don’t make this more complicated than it needs to be. Either buy low and sell high inside given range or wait for a breakout.
comment: Bulls got a new ath but the highest monthly close so far was 2473 and there is no reason to expect a huge breakout above 2550 with follow through. If it happens, hopp along but odds favor the bears for another reversal like so many times in the last 4 months. No matter how you interpret the patterns on the chart, all favor a reversal and betting on a breakout after 4 months of trading range price action is a losing strategy in the long run. I am neutral and wait for bears to show strength but will join the bulls on a strong breakout above 2550.
current market cycle: trading range for many months now and it’s probably coming to an end over the next weeks/months —unchanged
key levels: 2400 - 2550
bull case: Bulls printed a new ath. They finally want their breakout above and much higher prices. All patterns are against them and the odds obviously also. I would not look for longs above 2500. If they could break above 2550 and any pullback would stay above 2530, their chances of another leg up would be decent.
Invalidation is below 2550.
bear case: Bears see the trading range since April and the nested bull wedge on lower time frames and want a reversal down to at least 2430 again. They absolutely need to close this month below 2500 or the breakout above could actually happen and market would have to find new resistance, which could be much much higher than 2550. As of now market is almost making only perfect two legged moves inside the trading range and bulls just had their second. Market favors a reversal if bears come around on Monday.
Invalidation is above 2550.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral around 2475. Will only scalp this on momentum inside the triangle but swing will have to wait for a bigger breakout above or below. Want to see 2500 to look for shorts again.
→ Last Sunday we traded 2473 and now we are at 2537. Neutral outlook.
short term: Neutral until bears come around or strong break above 2550. If bears build good selling pressure, I want a retest of 2500 first and lower i look for 2470.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged since May
current swing trade: None.
chart update: Removed the bear trend line.
2024-08-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Gold - Insane price action tbh. Technically lower lows and lower highs but 40 points down and then 30 points up is also something special. I do think the 2519 highs can hold but it’s only reasonable to be neutral while the market oscillates that hard around 2500.
comment: Neutral after today but market is still contracting. Lower highs and higher lows means market is undecided and the triangle is big enough for another 5-10 days inside it. Bears have a reasonable argument that the 2519 high can hold and we are in the upper third of the triangle, shorts are favored.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle on the daily chart)
key levels: 2400 - 2536
bull case: Bulls prevented the climactic sell off for 40 points and retraced most of it. They need a higher high above 2510 to retest 2520. 1h 20ema is completely flat. Not more magic to it right now.
Invalidation is below 2490.
bear case: Bears are statistically favored for shorts in the upper third of the trading range. That’s about it for now. They need a 1h close below 2490 to test 2480 again and then hope for follow through down.
Invalidation is above 2522.
short term: Neutral. Bullish above 2510 and bearish below 2480 but just for scalps.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —adjusted 2450 to 2500
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Selling 2510 was good for many days now and continues to be so.
2024-08-08 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Not much to add after what I wrote in the tl;dr section. So see below.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2400 - 2500
bull case: Bulls have many patterns going for them right now. Biggest is the triangle on the daily chart which held and odds favor the bulls to retest up to 2510ish. I’d be surprised if we get there but that’s only my personal bias talking. Bulls closed above all ema and above the current trading range. They have all the arguments to trade higher yet the 1h chart today looks pretty weak to me, despite the 1.3% gain. Alternating bull/bear bars on the 1h chart do not scream bullish market. Whenever market is giving mixed signals, I just do not trade it. It’s just not worth my energy.
Invalidation is below 2450.
bear case: Bears kept the market two sided but it still went up 46 points. Bears see this as a marginally higher high to Tuesday and want to reverse from here. They need to keep it below 2475 or bulls will probably buy the momentum for 2500. Bears do not have that many arguments since bulls closed above all ema and reversed from the bull trend line on the daily chart.
Invalidation is above 2475.
short term: Neutral around 2465, bullish above 2475 for 2500 and bearish below 2450.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —adjusted 2450 to 2500
current swing trade: none
trade of the day: Same argument for not taking the long as in dax. Buying high in a trading range is a bad buy and market went only 6 points higher than Tuesday. Long since Globex open would have been perfect, as it was a perfect double bottom with Wednesday but not my timezone.
#202432 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
Quote from last week:
bear case: Bears made another amazing trade selling above 2440 and since this was the third time, they are confident they can push the market lower to at least 2300 again. The selling was strong enough for a second leg and right now a measured move would bring us exactly to 2300. Coincidences huh. Every time someone tells you technical analysis does not work, just nod and make money. It’s not worth the discussion.
comment: Clear rejection above 2500 again but the bear bar from Friday has a big tail below, because bulls bought the daily 20ema. It’s mid’ish of the triangle so the worst place to trade. I do think it’s more reasonable to expect more downside than a break above the ath but I won’t take my chances. I wait for market to show me. Both sides have reasonable arguments to retest the highs again or finally giving up on 2500. Volume saw a huge increase again, which could mean that we are coming to an end of this range between 2300 and 2500, over the next weeks to months.
current market cycle: trading range for many months now and it’s probably coming to an end over the next weeks/months
key levels: 2300 - 2536
bull case: Bulls showed weakness during the week before but somehow managed to turn the market around this week on bad looking daily bars. Unusual to say the least. I do think every time the patterns looks bad, it’s more due to the other side stepping aside than one being particularly strong. Anyhow, Market retested the ath again and printed a lower high 14 points lower. It’s the 5th time the bulls tried and failed. Do they get more or will they give up now? I don’t know. I thought the drop that started 2 weeks ago from the ath was decent enough to bring us to 2300 again but they failed at a higher low. So we are in a triangle and in the middle of it. Market is neutral between 2450 - 2490.
Invalidation is below 2290.
bear case: Not much to add because market is neutral. Bears need follow through on Monday to test the bull trend line below at around 2425. There is not much more to read out of this at the moment. Things change when bulls get a strong close above 2536 or bears print lower lows below 2390 again.
Invalidation is above 2536.
outlook last week:
short term: Full bear mode continues as long as the bear channel holds. Look for shorts near the top and take profits at new lows.
→ Last Sunday we traded 2381 and now we are at 2469. The bear channel broke on Tuesday and my invalidation was on point but my outlook was not. Always know your risk and start every trade from a risk point of view and now from a profit point of view. You will most likely never hit 90% winners consistently so get used to losers and don’t let them influence you in a bad way.
short term: Neutral 2450 - 2490. Will only scalp this on momentum inside the triangle but swing will have to wait for a bigger breakout above or below.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged since May
current swing trade: None.
chart update: Removed bearish pattern and added the triangle we are in
2024-07-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Gold had a huge bull day and my line in the sand for bears was 2436. Market now broke above it 2 times and the buying into US close was strong enough for a second leg which could bring us above 2480 again. Still a trading range on the daily chart and anything above 2300 is good for the bulls. Probably another try at printing 2500 over the next days.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2300 - 2500
bull case: Bulls want a new ath and all the stops too close above it. 2500 would be a nice round number to reach. After that I don’t have anything for the bulls. It’s a trading range since April and such big trading ranges happen before the final flag and this one here is probably it. I would not bet on another strong bull trend above 2500.
Above was written last week and is valid as ever. Bulls do not want to drop below the 1h 20ema again or the chop continues. They want the momentum continuing and another strong break above 2460 for the second leg up.
Invalidation is below 2440.
bear case: Bears tried to keep it below 2440 but market made higher lows and on the strong buying at bar 13, they stepped aside enough to let the market rip into US close. I don’t think many bears want to battle between 2450 and 2480, so I expect this becoming a quick move up before they see value in shorting again. Below 2440 I am wrong and bears showing strength again.
Invalidation is above 2460.
short term: Bullish af again. Want to see a proper channel form, that we can grind to 2480 or 2500.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —adjusted 2450 to 2500
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Tricky. Bar 10 was strong enough to expect more upside but the pullback afterwards on bar 11+12 was deep enough to trap many traders out. Bar 13 was the long to be in while it formed but tricky in any case.
#202431 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
Quote from last week:
bear case: Bears made another amazing trade selling above 2440 and since this was the third time, they are confident they can push the market lower to at least 2300 again. The selling was strong enough for a second leg and right now a measured move would bring us exactly to 2300. Coincidences huh. Every time someone tells you technical analysis does not work, just nod and make money. It’s not worth the discussion.
comment: Bears got their second leg down and the buying has been lackluster at best. Leaning heavily bearish until bulls trade strongly above the daily 20ema again. It’s a tight channel down and already much stronger than the previous sell offs from > 2400. As long as the channel holds, I’m full bear. No deeper analysis needed.
current market cycle: trading range on the daily chart but small bear trend inside, which could bring us to 2300.
key levels: 2300 - 2488
bull case: Bulls are very weak. The pullbacks they printed so far were doji’s and inside bars. Until they can print a big bull bar closing on it’s high, they have no reasonable arguments for a reversal. 2300 is much more likely than a strong breakout above the bear channel. Expecting more buyers to step in around 2300/2310.
Invalidation is below 2290.
bear case: Increased volume on the sell off and every rip is sold. Play the channel as long as it holds, bears have every argument on their side. The odds that we break below 2300 this time are decent, since market now tried 3 times to hit 2500 and market will only try one thing so many times until it does the opposite.
Invalidation is above 2436.
outlook last week:
“ short term: Full bear mode if we close below 2360 over the next 1-2 days. At least down to 2300 but decent chance we drop lower this time and start a new bear trend.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 2399 and now we are at 2381. Low of the week was 2352, outlook was good for 47.
short term: Full bear mode continues as long as the bear channel holds. Look for shorts near the top and take profits at new lows.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged since May
current swing trade: None. Will short on weakness on Monday.
chart update: Added bear channel.
2024-07-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: In my weekly post I expected a pullback to the bull trend line and that bulls would buy it again. That happened and then some. Very strong buying and market is right under prev ath 2477.1. It’s strong enough to expect more upside and we can probably print 2500 tomorrow. Where are the bears? Gone and waiting for bulls to start profit taking. You will see consecutive big bear bars and know when they appear. Will be a decent tripple top to short.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2300 - 2500
bull case: Bulls want a new ath and all the stops too close above it. 2500 would be a nice round number to reach. After that I don’t have anything for the bulls. It’s a trading range since April and such big trading ranges happen before the final flag and this one here is probably it. I would not bet on another strong bull trend above 2500.
Invalidation is below 2400.
bear case: Bears stepping aside enough and letting the higher high happen. They will probably wait for the bulls to begin the profit taking before shorting aggressively. Since the highest monthly close is from May and below 2350, I don’t have much arguments for the bulls until they close a month above that price.
Invalidation is above 2510.
short term: Bullish af. Don’t look for shorts. Go long on strong momentum and see how high this can go. 15m 20ema is my stop on any long as long as it holds.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —adjusted 2450 to 2500
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Long anything around the 1h 20ema.
#202429 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bulls got the breakout above and 2 good looking bull bars above the daily 20ema. Above 2407 we can expect bears to give up and a retest of 2460 or higher. Market is amazingly symmetrical. 3 tries to drop below 2300 and we are probably seeing the 3rd try at printing above 2477 over the next days. It’s a big trading range and I will long this above 2407 for 2460+ and will short this above 2460, once market turns around again. Maybe bulls can print a higher high or maybe they don’t, it does not matter since you wait for the clear reversal before shorting again.
comment: Bears tried to bring it below the daily 20ema and failed again. Bulls got another smaller higher high which was also a perfect breakout, retest and long again. So bulls are in full control but they are also not very strong or the market would not pull back each time after 1-2 good looking bull bars. Same reasoning as last week. Can bulls print a higher high or will this become a right shoulder? Probably the latter. Bulls are at 2 good resistance lines and buying above 2400 has not been profitable for more than 2 days in this market ever.
current market cycle: trading range until 2300 or 2407 is broken. If bulls break above, trading range is expanded again up to 2480
key levels: 2300 - 2480
bull case: Bulls keeping it inside the bull wedge and channel and as long as we stay in them, it’s bullish af. Bulls are mostly buying dips and not highs, otherwise market would print more consecutive bull bars. Targets for the bulls are obvious, retesting 2477 or making a higher high.
Invalidation is below 2370.
bear case: Bears only need 2 consecutive bear bars to reverse the market to below 2350 again. They are selling new highs inside the channel/wedge and so far it was profitable at least for scalps. They want this leg up to become the right shoulder and finally break the neckline on the next leg down and get below 2300.
Invalidation is above 2510.
outlook last week:
“short term: Neutral until break above 2407. Bullish above”
→ Last Sunday we traded 2397 and now we are at 2420. 23 points higher… I mean… That’s pretty neutral to me since we also traded 30 points lower during the week.
short term: Bearish for a pullback at least to the lower bull trend line again where I expect bulls to buy it again. No opinion after that.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged
current swing trade: Went long but cut it early. It’s not bullish enough to buy up here. Will only look for shorts once we break the bull trend line.
Chart update: Adjusted the bull wedge and added bull channel with last recent highs but just minor things. Trading range price action and patterns are weak at best.
#202427 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
Quote from last week:
bull case: Bulls see the green support line and want to keep it support and keep the market above 2300/2320. They stalled the market long enough that not enough bears want to push their luck, selling the lows here. They also managed to print 2 bars above the daily ema, which makes the market more neutral.
comment: Keeping this very short bc the tl;dr almost covered it all. Trading range and a descending triangle. Huge support 2300 and until either that or the upper triangle bear line is broken, it’s as neutral as it gets. Buy low, sell high and scalp. 55/45 imo that bears get a breakout below but do you really want to bet on those odds? I don’t.
current market cycle: trading range until 2300 or 2385 is broken.
key levels: 2300 - 2385 / below 2300 comes 2270 in play
bull case: Bulls keeping it above support but can not print consecutive daily closes above the daily 20ema. Will probably see a breakout over the next 1-2 weeks.
Invalidation is below 2300.
bear case: Bears need a strong break below 2300, that’s it.
Invalidation is above 2385.
outlook last week:
“short term: Play the triangle if the support holds. ”
→ Last Sunday we traded 2331 and now we are at 2339. Triangle held. Good outlook.
short term: Neutral. Play the triangle.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged
current swing trade: None and won’t enter. Just scalps for me.
Chart update: Made the support more obvious.
2024-06-27 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
gold
comment: Daily ema at 2346 and we closed 2339. Bulls can’t close above it and bears can’t break below 2300. Today was strong enough for bulls to try and get a second leg. Measured move is up to 2375ish.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2300 - 2360
bull case: Bulls first target tomorrow is to stay above the 1h ema and then break above 2350. 2350 is big resistance until broken. If they manage to break it, high probability we see 2360+.
Invalidation is below 2300.
bear case: Need a break below 2300. No better arguments for their case. Bears kinda tried down to 2304 but market stalled so long down there, that bears just gave up before EU open and market just melted higher. Was this a buy vacuum produced by bears stepping aside, rather than strong bulls buying? Will find out tomorrow.
Invalidation is above 2350.
short term: Odds favor the bulls for a second leg up but 2350 is big resistance until broken.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2450. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Long anything after bar 6 broke above the range and the 1h 20ema.
Four Factors Driving Gold Prices Relative to Silver2600 years ago, the Anatolian Kingdom of Lydia minted the world’s first gold and silver coins. In doing so, the Lydian King Alyattes and his successor Croesus introduced the world’s first exchange rate: the gold-silver cross. Like any cross rate, the amount of silver that can be purchased with an ounce of gold is driven by both demand and supply-side factors, and the cross rate is anything other than stable. Sadly, we don’t have the time series of the gold-silver ratio dating back to ancient times, but we do have data going back to the launch of gold futures on December 31, 1974. Since the mid-1970s, one ounce of gold bought anywhere from 17 ounces to as many as 123 ounces of silver (Figure 1).
Figure 1: The amount of silver an ounce of gold can buy has been highly variable
In addition to the impact of monetary policy, which we have covered here, the gold-silver ratio appears to be governed by four other factors:
Relative volatility and the silver beta
Fabrication demand and technological change
Gold’s use as a monetary asset
Supply-side dynamics
Relative volatility and beta
To borrow an expression from the equity markets, silver is the high-beta version of gold. First, silver and gold prices usually have a strong positive correlation. Since 2004 the one-year rolling correlation of their daily price moves has hovered around +0.8 (Figure 2). Second, silver is more volatile than gold. As such, when gold prices move up, silver tends to move up more, thereby lowering the gold-silver price ratio. By contrast, during bear markets, the gold-silver ratio tends to rise.
Figure 2: The correlation of gold and silver price changes has hugged +0.8 since 2004.
For example, when gold and silver prices peaked in September 2011, one ounce of gold bought fewer than 32 ounces of silver (Figure 3). In the ensuing bear market, the ratio rose to as high as 124 ounces of silver per ounce of gold. The ratio snapped back to 64 in 2020 as gold and silver rallied early in the pandemic. In 2024, as both metals have rallied, silver has outperformed, rising 23% in the first five months of the year compared to 12% for the yellow metal.
Figure 3: Positive correlation plus much higher volatility give silver a high beta to gold
Fabrication Demand and the Impact of Technological Change
What is curious is that while gold and silver have rallied thus far in 2024, gold broke to new record highs of nearly $2,500 per ounce whereas silver prices remain 40% below their twin 1980 and 2011 peaks despite having outperformed gold since 2020 (Figure 4). The reason may lie in technological advances.
Figure 4: Gold has hit records in 2024 while silver is still 40% below its 1980 and 2011 record highs
Even before the Lydians minted the first gold and silver coins around 600 BCE, both metals had been used to make jewellery: silver since around 2500 BCE and gold since 4500 BCE. Some things don’t change. Even today, the primary use of both metals is to make jewellery. Yet, thus far this century, silver has been buffeted by two sets of technological developments: the digital revolution and the energy transition. Both have impacted the relative gold-silver ratio.
In 1999, photography used 267.7 million troy ounces of silver which accounted for 36.6% of that year’s total silver supply. By 2023 photography used only 23.2 million ounces of silver or about 2.3% of 2023’s total supply due to the rise of digital photography. Meanwhile, silver’s use in electronics and batteries grew from 90 million ounces to 227.4 million ounces or from 12.3% to 22.7% of silver’s total annual supply, partially offsetting the decline in traditional photography, which may partially explain why silver has struggled to hit new highs in recent years even as gold has set records.
The good news for silver, however, is that it is finding new use in the energy transition. Over the past few years silver has seen strong growth coming from solar panels, which accounted for 20% of 2023 silver demand, up from essentially nothing in 1999 (Figure 5). Solar panels may explain in part why silver has recovered relative to gold since 2020.
Figure 5: Battery and solar panel demand have grown as photography demand has shrunk
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
By contrast, gold fabrication demand has shown itself to be immune from recent technological developments and is still overwhelmingly dominated by jewellery demand, with electronics, dental and other uses absorbing just 17% of annual gold mining supply (Figure 6). The differences in silver and gold fabrication demand underscores that gold is considered the purer of the two precious metals.
Figure 6: Gold fabrication demand has remained little changed
Gold and global monetary policy
Indeed, central banks around the world treat gold as money while they largely ignore silver (Figure 7). They hold a combined 36,700 metric tons of gold, the equivalent of 1.2 billion troy ounces or 13 years of global mining output. Moreover, central banks have been net buyers of gold every year since the global financial crisis.
Figure 7: Central banks have been net buyers of gold since the global financial crisis
Central bank buying of gold since 2009 contrasts sharply with their tendency to be net sellers from 1982 to 2007. Central banks’ accumulation of gold suggests that they want a hard asset to complement their foreign exchange reserves of dollars, euros, yen and other fiat currencies, a view that appears to have been reinforced by on-and-off quantitative easing since 2009 and increased use of financial sanctions. Central bank buying impacts gold prices directly, but only boosts silver prices indirectly via the gold market.
The supply side of the equation
Central bank gold buying reduces the amount of gold available to the public. Over the past decade, central bank buying has removed the equivalent of 8%-20% of new mining supply from the gold market each year (Figure 8) which may also explain why the gold-silver ratio rose significantly from 2011 to 2020 and why, even today, it remains at 2x its 2011 level.
Figure 8: Net of central bank buying, gold supply has stagnated since 2003
Total gold supply net of official purchases has stagnated since 2003. Meanwhile, silver mining supply peaked in 2016 and gold mining supply peaked the next year (Figure 9). The fact that new supply is arriving on the market more slowly than in the past may be bullish for both gold and silver.
Figure 9: Gold and silver respond negative to changes in each other’s mining supply.
Our econometric analysis shows that gold and silver prices are negatively correlated with changes to one another’s mining supply. A 1% decrease in gold mining supply, on balance, boosted gold prices by 1.9% and silver by 3.0% from 1974 to 2023. A 1% decease in silver mining supply boosted the prices of the metals by 1.3%-1.6% (Figure 10). Secondary supply appears to respond to price rather than drive it. Higher prices incentivize more recycling, but recycled metal doesn’t appear to depress prices as it doesn’t bring any new metal onto the market.
Figure 10: Secondary supply responds to price rather than drives it
What connects the two markets is jewellery. Because gold is 70x as costlier than silver, when prices rise, demand for gold jewellery falls while silver’s jewellery demand is relatively unresponsive to price because it costs much less. Gold and silver can be seen as a sort of binary star system where the two stars orbit a common center of gravity or barycenter. Gold is the larger, more stable and more influential of the two, but it is by no means immune from silver’s pull.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
#202424 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - goldGood Day and I hope you are well.
old futures
Quote from last week:
bear case: The smaller bull trend line was clearly broken and retested and the higher time frames also give more sell than buy signals. It’s a two-legged correction here to the ema and that is a perfect sell signal. They want follow through on Monday for target 2300.
comment: This market behaved as I said it would. The high of 2406 was a bit higher than expected but overall read was perfect. We are in W3 which should lead a bit lower to around 2270ish before we get another sideways to up movement. If W4 stays below 2350, W5 should bring us to at least 2200. That is a 120 point move in Gold for you. Let’s see how it will play out. Small possibility that 2300 stays support and we move more sideways. Would reevaluate my take on this then.
current market cycle: trading range until break below 2300 , which would confirm a bear trend, probably down to 2200. I favor the bears heavily here but leave room for 2300 being stronger support than I think it is.
key levels: 2300 - 2400 / below 2300 comes 2270 in play
bull case: Bulls continued in the expanding triangle and got their retest of 2400, just to be violently sold by the bears. Twitter and news salespeople want you to believe it was due to news that China won’t buy any more Gold. But how do they explain the W1 from 2477 down to 2334? That started 2 weeks ago. Only objective now for the bulls is to keep it above 2300, otherwise 2270 comes next.
Invalidation is below 2300.
bear case: My bear channel tells how you I feel about Gold. Now bears need to print lower lows and keep the pull-back for W4 mostly sideways and under 2350. I fully expect to hit 2200 over the next weeks and then we will find out how many people want to buy Gold again.
Invalidation is above 2360.
outlook last week: “Still preferring that second leg down to 2200. Bearish below 2340 and neutral 2340-2390.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 2345 and now we are at 2325. My target to the EMA was on point and good for about 30 points and my downward target to 2270 is still valid. Good outlook.
short term: Bearish. Big bear surprise on Friday and I expect follow through.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2450. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —unchanged
current swing trade: Short from 2374. SL is 2406.
Chart update: I like my new bear channel. I trade it and I made money so far with it. Hope you can make some too with it.