Weekly Market Forecast Feb 24-28: SPX, NAS, DJI, GOLD, ...This is a FUTURES market outlook for the week of Feb 17-21st.
In this video, we will analyze the following futures markets:
ES | S&P 500
NQ | NASDAQ 100
YM | Dow Jones 30
GC | Gold
SIL | Silver
PL | Platinum
HG | Copper
The USD continues its bearish ways this upcoming weak. It's currency counterparts will likely see some upside this week. Especially the JPY.
Patience and an ear to the news will be the best way to approach the equity markets. The same would also apply to news sensitive commodity markets like US OIL, Gold and Silver.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
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Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
GOLD-SILVER
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Afternoon Update : BREAKDOWNIf you've followed my research over the past 90+ days - you were ready for this move.
If you were positioned for this breakdown, many of you should have seen decent profits or green in your accounts.
I'm so happy and proud to have helped many of you prepare for this move.
Stay cautious into the close as we may see more selling pressure drive prices lower.
Remember, everything I do is about helping you become a better trader.
Get some.
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Sailing27db97e52ec7b1b43e5391bb5861b8d4cf37d3a7c3a1a06d3aa0533382d52733
Bitcoin's conservative addressable share of speculative assets is 2%.
The total market cap of the speculative portion of assets are as follows:
Real Estate: $2.14 trillion
Gold: $7.83 trillion
Silver: $108 billion (0.108 trillion)
Stock Market: $21.8 - $32.7 trillion (We'll consider the lower and upper estimates)
Bonds: $7.035 - $14.07 trillion
Total speculative market cap: $38.913 trillion to $56.848 trillion.
Conservative estimate for Bitcoin's share of this is 2%, or 0.778T-1.137T
The conservative multiplier for Bitcoin, is 118x. This means that for every $1 invested in Bitcoin, the market cap tends to increase by $118. Let's assume 10x instead.
0.778T-1.137T X 10 = 7.783T - 11.370T
Conservative projected price range 350k-666k
Market Cap details below:
Real Estate:
* Total Market Cap: $379.7 trillion
* Speculative Portion Market Cap: $2.14 trillion (Investment real estate)
* Speculative Portion: 0.56%
Gold:
* Total Market Cap: $19.57 trillion
* Speculative Portion Market Cap: $7.83 trillion
* Speculative Portion: 40%
Silver:
* Total Market Cap: $1.816 trillion
* Speculative Portion Market Cap: $108 billion
* Speculative Portion: 5.95%
Stock Market:
* Total Market Cap: $109 trillion
* Speculative Portion Market Cap: $21.8 - $32.7 trillion
* Speculative Portion: 20-30%
Bonds:
* Total Market Cap: $140.7 trillion
* Speculative Portion Market Cap: $7.035 - $14.07 trillion
* Speculative Portion: 5-10%
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-21 : Top Pattern Counter TrendToday's Top pattern in Counter-Trend mode suggests the markets will attempt to move downward, seeking a new support level, then find a base and attempt to roll a bit higher.
I don't expect a big breakdown to take place today, but the YM is already struggling to maintain support - so we may see the ES/NQ break downward if the major markets continue to weaken throughout the day.
I do expect the markets to move into my Major Bottom pattern over the next 3-5+ trading days. So, overall, I expect the markets to reject these recent highs and attempt to move downward.
Gold and Silver should continue to rally with Gold trying to break above $3k and silver trying to break above $35.
Bitcoin is moving into an early stage Excess Phase Peak flagging formation. This should prompt a fairly solid rally phase for Bitcoin over the next few days/weeks.
If my longer-term research is correct, the recent new highs will be rejected and price will roll into a double-bottom type of setup between now and the end of March 2025.
I suspect traders are not prepared for this move and will continue to try to BUY any dip they see over the next 30+ days.
My only advice is to play the short-term trends and avoid position or swing trading too heavily.
The markets are going to become very volatile over the next 30+ days.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-20 : Rotation PatternSorry for my delay this morning. Everything is fine over here - just a bit hectic this morning, and I had to drive my son to his work at 530am - which interrupted my plans.
OK, so here we go.
This video helps to organize my analysis/thinking into more clearly presented data for my followers. I use the Fibonacci Price Theory as a basis for all my analysis. On top of that, I use other techniques (anchor bars, my SPY Cycle Patterns, and my custom indexes) to help identify when and where opportunities exist for the best trades.
I've been getting comments related to my labeling these videos as Bullish or Bearish which may go against the primary trend direction presented on the charts. So, now I've added a TEXT LABEL that tells you what every chart is doing on a Short, Intermediate, and Long-term basis.
This will help all of you follow my analysis/thinking going forward (I hope).
Today's Rotation Pattern suggests the markets will slide into a sideways price rotation phase.
This rotation could be a stalling pattern after the recent rally to new ATHs.
I'm still very cautious of a breakdown/pullback in trend after this move higher. As I keep saying, I don't believe the markets have sufficient momentum to continue a massive rally phase. And I really believe this new ATH level is a BULL TRAP - setting up longs to jump into this rally mode before a bigger pullback/breakdown takes place.
Gold and Silver are struggling to move higher with a fairly broad rotating range - but they are still pushing higher.
I believe Gold and Silver will make a big move higher over the next 30+ days. So, be prepared for volatility - but stick with long trades for metals as I believe Gold will rally to levels above $3100 very quickly.
Bitcoin could be shifting into a new Excess Phase Peak pattern off recent lows. The FPT trends for Bitcoin are still BEARISH, but we are starting to see a base setup that may become a new Excess Phase Peak low.
Watch this video and please comment if you have any questions.
Again, sorry for my delay this morning.
Get some..
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
Canadian Venture index --- Inverse head & shouldersGold has reached unprecedented heights, approaching the $3000 mark—a prediction we made with precision. Now is the moment to turn our attention to silver and the mining sector.
To start, let's examine the Canadian venture index, which is displaying a promising inverse head and shoulders pattern. I am confident that the logarithmic projection will be achieved without much difficulty.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-19-25: GAP Reversal Counter-trendToday's pattern suggests a morning GAP will lead to a price reversal in a counter-trend type of mode.
I read this as a potential that price will initially struggle to find a trend. Eventually, when it does identify a trend mode, I believe that trend will strengthen into a reversal of the current upward price trend.
Normally, Counter-trend patterns invert. So, what I would have expected as an uptrend would turn into a downtrend. But, the markets have moved into a very consolidated price channel near recent highs and volume has diminished strongly.
Because of this type of setup, I believe an aggressive breakaway or breakdown price move is pending.
Price will attempt to make a move - and when it does, it should be explosive.
My continued research, which I share with you in this video, continues to suggest price will stall out and revert downward.
We'll see how things play out over the next few days.
Gold and Silver are back near recent all-time highs. Stay cautious of a breakdown in metals associated with a breakdown in the SPY/QQQ.
BTCUSD is still struggling to make a move. As you will see, I believe the dominant trend is to the downside right now.
In short, we are standing at the edge of a cliff regarding price action. At this point, we either grow wings and soar higher or fall downward - hoping for a soft landing.
Buckle up.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Post Market Update : Big Squeeze CloseToday is quite a day in terms of trading volatility and volume. We've not seen a low-volume day like today in the SPY for more than a year.
It is very likely this rally near the close of trading was more of a short-squeeze and not really a momentum breakout.
We'll see how things play out tomorrow. But, I'm not budging related to my expectations of a breakdown in the markets over the next 5-10+ days.
I see this market as completely over-cooked to the upside - and it seems to be evident in the lack of buying volume playing out.
My Custom Crash index is flat and topping. My Custom Volatility Index is flat and topping. My Custom US Leading Index is actually LOWER so far this week.
One thing is certain, there is a lot of open "air" below the 598 level on the SPY.
Buckle Up.
When it breaks - it may be a BIG BREAKDOWN setting up.
Get Some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-18 : GAP PotentialAs the markets continue to struggle to break away from the current consolidated/sideways price trend, one thing is certain: The current FLAG/EPP pattern is setting up an explosive price move.
My expectations are for a price breakdown, as my predictive modeling and GANN Cycle Patterns suggest that Major Bottoms will set up near February 21 and March 21-23.
These major Bottoms suggest a strong potential for a price breakdown, reflecting uncertainty for the first half of 2025.
Additionally, I believe the strength of the US Dollar is driving a "Capital Shift," where foreign capital is actively moving away from currency and economic risks, pooling aggressively into the safest currency and assets. This translates into capital pooling into US, UK, and EURO assets to avoid broader currency devaluation events.
The dynamics of the global markets are very interesting right now. The influx of capital into the strongest economies with the strongest currencies may present a MELT-UP type of market trend. However, the uncertainty related to future US economic growth and performance may prompt some deep downturns/pullbacks in price.
I don't see how the US markets can move past the economic turmoil of broad government restructuring until after June/July 2025.
Therefore, I continue to urge traders to stay cautious of any melt-up trend. The markets want to move higher, but there are currently extreme volatility risks related to any potential price breakdowns.
I'm watching Gold/Silver and Bitcoin to see if we move back into any euphoric phase. And right now, I'm seeing metals starting to move into a type of panic selloff while Bitcoin is struggling to regain any real strength.
The continued sideways trend of Bitcoin leads me to believe the euphoria is diminishing, and reality may be setting in. That means we may be in for a bumpy ride over the next 90+ days.
Stay fluid and stay cautious of any big breakdowns.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-14-25 : CRUSH PatternHappy Valentine's Day - everyone.
Tell the people around you how much they mean to you and how important they are to your life.
Today's SPY Cycle Pattern is a CRUSH pattern. These types of patterns are usually very large range bars that attempt to REVERT back to a mean price level - in this case - DOWNWARD.
Near the end of this video, I discuss some of my Custom Indexes and explain why the data tells me we are moving into a topping pattern for the US and global markets. Many of you watch my Plan Your Trade videos and probably think I make things up as I go.
Actually, a lot of data and research go into my decision-making. Ninety-nine percent of that data (usually in predictive modeling, Custom Indexes, and other resources) delivers a clear outcome. In this case, the result is "the markets are TOPPING."
So, even though the markets didn't cooperate with my Deep-V breakdown from Feb 10 to 13, I urge you to watch this video until the end, when I start sharing some Custom Index data/charts. Pay attention to what that data tells us.
Notably, the Smart Money Index and the Accumulation Phase Index are screaming, "The markets are TOPPING."
Gold and Silver move into a Gap-Revert-Stall-Flush pattern, again representing a reversion to the mean price level.
I believe today will be another moderately downward-trending Friday, as we've continued to see over the past three or more weeks.
Please spend a little time hitting the pause button and checking out some of my Custom Index charts. They are the data that drives much of my decision-making.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 2-13: Harami Inside PatternToday's pattern is a Harami Inside pattern. This suggests the markets will stay rather muted today - attempting to stay within yesterday's high/low range.
I believe the markets are still struggling to identify a channel that will ultimately break to the downside.
You'll see in this video why I believe the markets are struggling and will attempt to confirm the multiple Excess Phase Peak patterns over the next 20+ days - attempting to move downward.
But, we do have a very interesting FLAG/CHANNEL setup on the NQ, which is somewhat confirmed on the ES.
What I can guarantee is that we will see extreme volatility over the next 20-30+ days as price moves into the Flag Apex - attempting to break away from the Apex level.
Thank you for all your support and understanding yesterday. Dad is good. No issues.
The VA out here is great (Long Beach). Probably the best center for spinal recovery in the US. I love the people up there and how they take care of my father.
I urge everyone to stay cautious until the end of this week. As you know, I expect a breakdown into new lows.
We'll see if it plays out as I expect over the next week+.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Gold and Silver Out of Sync-Extreme Sentiment and Runaway Movesgold and silver futures chart analysis and why gold may no longer predictably be used to time the silver moves at this period in time; though there are several ways for silver to reach 37-43 and ultimately 50, as gold is likely set to overshoot 3000.
Daily Market Outlook: BTC & Forex Setups (#2)Today’s market saw extreme volatility following the USD CPI data release. Inflation appears to be rising due to Trump’s recent tariff actions on countries like Canada, Mexico, and China, adding further pressure to markets. This led to a major sell-off in crypto and stocks, while pairs like USD/JPY surged.
📉 BTC 4H Analysis – Holding Support or Breaking Down?
BTC dropped hard to $94K after the CPI release but found some rejection and is now still holding above the 4H support at $95K.
📊 Potential Scenarios:
1️⃣ If BTC stabilizes above $95K, we could see a breakout above $98,500, triggering long setups.
2️⃣ If $95K fails, expect a test of lower supports at 92K and possibly $85K if rate cuts don’t continue.
📌 Recommendation: Stay cautious and wait for clear structure before entering.
🟡 XAU/USD (Gold) – Bullish Recovery After Support Test
Gold remains in a major uptrend and recently completed a price correction to the $2,884 support zone. After a fake breakout, it is now recovering and pushing higher.
📊 Trade Idea:
✅ Long trigger above $2,910 for confirmation.
✅ More aggressive entry: Buy early if we see higher highs forming.
⚪ XAG/USD (Silver) – Momentum Building for a Breakout
Silver has been forming an accelerating uptrend curve, indicating increasing bullish momentum. This suggests the potential for high R/R trades if we catch the right move.
📊 Key Trade Setup:
✅ Breakout above $32.19 = Long Entry.
✅ Aggressive traders: Enter before breakout with stop-loss below the trendline.
📌 GBP/CHF Update – Holding for Bigger Move
📊 Our GBP/CHF long position triggered, but we didn’t enter just for a small range move—the goal is to catch a breakout of the daily range for at least R/R 2.
✅ Stop-loss remains below the 4H range bottom.
✅ Holding position unless market structure shifts.
Final Thoughts & Risk Management
⚠ Markets are volatile after CPI—don’t FOMO.
⚠ Keep stop-losses tight & follow structure.
⚠ See you tomorrow with another breakdown!
📌 If you missed yesterday’s analysis, go check it out for better context!
⚠ Disclaimer : These trade setups are based on my personal analysis and are not financial advice . If you don’t have a solid risk management plan , these triggers may not be suitable for you . Always do your own research (DYOR) and trade at your own risk. 💡
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-12: Base Rally PatternAlthough I believe the Base Rally pattern is still valid, the markets have been wound tightly near recent highs and I belive this unwinding/breakdown is what I have been suggesting (the Deep-V breakdown) for more than 35+ days.
I believe the sticky inflation data (CPI) will overpower the Base Rally pattern today and we will see the SPY/QQQ move downward into the Deep-V lows - likely setting up by Friday/Monday of this week.
I'm sorry I'm not able to create a morning video. I'm taking my disabled VET father to his annual checkup this morning. He is still sleeping and I don't want to wake him up.
So, you get this content as a substitute.
Be prepared for the markets to FLUSH OUT a low and try to grab some easy profits throughout today and tomorrow as the markets struggle to find support.
Remember, the broader cycle patterns can sometimes overpower the Daily Cycle Patterns. This happens when NEWS overpowers a Daily cycle pattern construct. In this case, the CPI data is overpowering the Base Rally Daily Cycle Pattern.
Ultimately, the markets will find support and move into a brief recovery phase.
Get some.
SILVER - Finally Following Gold!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈SILVER has been in a correction phase and it is currently approaching the lower bound of the blue rising wedge pattern.
Moreover, the green zone is a strong structure and support zone.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of support and lower blue trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #XAGUSD approaches the blue circle, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-11 : GAP DefenderThe GAP Defender pattern is where price struggles to maintain a recent open GAP - attempting to defend against closing that GAP.
In my mind, this is the lower GAP window between 601.30 and 602.75 (yesterday's opening GAP range).
If this recent gap is filled, then I suggest the SPY will attempt to move downward (into my Deep-V breakdown) trying to target the lower GAP near 584.29.
Watch Gold and Silver as they continue to breakdown. Any big breakdown in metals should be considered a warning sign the markets are moving into a PANIC phase (selling).
We have lots of news today (Powell and other Fed members testifying) while we just found out Trump initiated a larger tariff on steel. I believe the strength of the US Dollar will continue to put pressure on global currencies - possibly leading to even more foreign market distress. This may result in a broader global market breakdown over the next 5-10 trading days.
Remember, we have the Deep-V pattern setting up this week and another Major Bottom pattern setting up on Feb 21. I interpret this as a dual-breakdown event - where price attempts to move downward and tries to identify solid support.
Bitcoin will likely follow this trend downward over the next 5 to 10+ days.
Buckle up.
It looks like today may be the day my Deep-V breakdown starts to drive prices lower for the SPY/QQQ and other major sectors.
We'll see how things play out.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update - Watching Paint Dry...Today's market seems to be trapped in a "go nowhere" zone.
Get thread though. The markets will react to my Deep-V and Breakdown patterns with some aggression in the near future (24 to 48+ hours).
Buckle up.
This is going to get very interesting as the SPY attempts to move down to 585-590 - or lower.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-10: EveningStar Island PatternThroughout the past week and a half, I've been watching the markets as I prepare for what I believe will be a sudden and fairly aggressive Deep-V setup between 2-10 and 2-13.
Yes, that means RIGHT NOW we are sitting on top of a potentially aggressive type of FLASH market move to the downside.
Will it come from news, or someone's comments (think Fed comments or news), or will it come from some other source - if it shows up at all.
I'm sticking to my Deep-V analysis because I have no reason to believe it is wrong. We may see a mild type of Deep-V pattern, but I believe it will happen anyway.
So, as we move into this week's trading, I want to urge everyone to stay very cautious of a potential FLASH breakdown into my Deep-V type of price activity.
As you may get trapped into longs and feel comfortable entering some solid bullish price trends/trades, be aware that this FLASH breakdown (Deep-V pattern) may still be lurking behind what appears to be a solid uptrend (for now).
Gold and Silver are falling - which is perfect for my Expansion Phase rally to $4400+ (gold).
Bitcoin is stalling - preparing for a breakdown.
This is the time to prepare for the rest fo 2025. Follow my research to know when you JUMP INTO the markets for greater success.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
ETH—Time Has become CrucialETH has had 2 weekly closes below 3000
This is not too surprising nor should it be an end all be all indicator, that determines whether the bull run in BTC, Alts, or both, is coming to a halt or resuming
With that being said, time appears to be getting important, as 3 weekly closes should certainly be concerning.
Here we can see an intact trendline from multi-year lows all the way to more recent lows, until it just recently retested.
Additionally, most volatile, and aggressive moves from from a flase breakdown, which washes out week hands one last time.
-After hitting strong support at 2150, and dropping nearly 30% in hours, ETH QUICKLY recovered the entirety of its loses within a day.
-2150 has several levels of strong support and a further array of support/former resistance levels with 25-50$
-Time is important here—I expect for ETH to make a beeline to 3000 early next week and definitively close above 3000 on the weekly chart, signaling the resumption of the altcoin bull market in earnest.
-If this does not happen, I would say there is a cause for concern, and something is very wrong.
It is also important to note the Bollinger Band crash on the weekly chart when 2150 was tested. The last time this exact scenario occurred, ETH rallied back well above 3000 in a short period of time.
Comments appreciated thanks