GOLD-SILVER
IGOIndependence Gold appears to be entering a W3:3 from my perspective . If this is correct we should see a substantial price appreciation coming soon as confirmation . The companies properties are located in BC and the Yukon so in good jurisdictions which is important to me as i try to minimize investments in mexico and south america . Their exploration efforts have resulted in recent new discoveries . Their BC property is located near Artemis' blackwater project so that is a huge plus for potential silver discoveries . Also their management team is stacked full of seasoned mining professionals and geologists . Checks all the boxes for me .
TradePlus-Fx|GOLD: another up impulse💬 Description: Most likely, we should expect another upward impulse for the metal in the very near future (1-2 days). The resistance level of 1972.454 is currently a trigger for activating long-positions on the market, which largely includes the positions of current sellers, who will be forced to switch from selling to buying. This impulse will most likely pass within the framework of the culmination, after which a rollback should be expected. However, we immediately note that the medium-term vision is also directed upward.
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The Intricate Dance of Gold and Oil: Exploring the CorrelationThe global financial landscape is a complex web of interconnected markets, where various commodities play pivotal roles in shaping economic trends. Two such commodities, gold and oil, often stand out due to their significance and influence on both the financial and geopolitical spheres. Despite their different applications and purposes, these commodities share an intriguing correlation that has captured the attention of economists, investors, and analysts alike.
Understanding Gold and Oil:
Gold, often referred to as the "king of precious metals," has been a store of value for centuries. Its appeal lies in its rarity, durability, and intrinsic beauty, making it a sought-after asset for investors and a symbol of wealth and prosperity. Gold is often used as a hedge against inflation, economic uncertainties, and currency fluctuations.
On the other hand, oil, often referred to as "black gold," is a critical component of the global economy. It serves as a primary energy source, driving industrial production, transportation, and various other sectors. Oil prices are influenced by a myriad of factors, including geopolitical events, supply and demand dynamics, and global economic conditions.
The Correlation:
While gold and oil serve different purposes, they share an intricate correlation that becomes apparent under certain economic conditions. One of the key factors influencing their relationship is inflation. Both commodities have historically been viewed as hedges against inflation, and as a result, their prices often move in tandem when inflationary pressures are high.
During times of economic uncertainty, investors tend to seek safe-haven assets, and both gold and oil can serve this purpose. For example, geopolitical tensions, conflicts, or economic crises can drive up the prices of both commodities as investors seek refuge in tangible assets.
Additionally, the value of the U.S. dollar plays a significant role in the correlation between gold and oil. As gold is priced in U.S. dollars, a weaker dollar tends to make gold more attractive to international investors, leading to an increase in its price. On the other hand, a weaker dollar can also contribute to higher oil prices, as oil is traded globally in dollars, and a weaker dollar makes oil more affordable for countries using other currencies.
Supply and Demand Dynamics:
The correlation between gold and oil is not solely driven by macroeconomic factors; supply and demand dynamics also come into play. Both commodities are finite resources, and disruptions in their supply chains can lead to price movements that impact one another. For example, geopolitical events that disrupt oil production in major oil-producing regions can lead to increased uncertainty and a flight to safe-haven assets like gold.
Conclusion on Gold & Oil
The relationship between gold and oil is a multifaceted and dynamic one, shaped by various economic, geopolitical, and market forces. While the correlation is not always consistent and can be influenced by short-term factors, understanding the interplay between these two commodities provides valuable insights for investors and policymakers alike. As the global economy continues to evolve, the complex dance between gold and oil will likely persist, reflecting the ever-changing landscape of the financial markets.
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Gold & Bitcoin
A Symbiotic Relationship
Gold and Bitcoin, two seemingly disparate assets, have garnered significant attention in the world of finance and investments. One is a traditional precious metal with a history dating back millennia, while the other is a relatively new digital currency that emerged in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. Despite their differences, an intriguing correlation has emerged between these two assets, captivating the interest of investors and analysts alike. This article delves into the relationship between gold and Bitcoin, exploring the factors that contribute to their correlation and the implications for the broader financial landscape.
Understanding the Basics:
Before delving into their correlation, let's briefly outline the characteristics of gold and Bitcoin:
1. **Gold:**
- Precious metal with intrinsic value.
- Long-standing history as a store of value and medium of exchange.
- Physical presence as coins, bars, or jewelry.
- Influenced by factors like inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical events.
2. **Bitcoin:**
- Cryptocurrency created in 2009 by an unknown person or group using the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto.
- Operates on a decentralized blockchain, providing transparency and security.
- Limited supply capped at 21 million coins.
- Subject to factors like market demand, technological developments, and regulatory changes.
Correlation Dynamics:
Several factors contribute to the observed correlation between gold and Bitcoin:
1. **Risk Perception:**
Both gold and Bitcoin are often viewed as safe-haven assets during times of economic uncertainty or market volatility. Investors tend to flock to these assets in search of stability and protection against potential downturns in traditional markets.
2. **Inflation Hedge:**
Gold has historically been considered a hedge against inflation, as its value tends to rise during periods of currency devaluation. Similarly, Bitcoin's fixed supply and decentralized nature position it as a potential hedge against inflation, attracting investors seeking alternatives to traditional fiat currencies.
3. **Diversification Strategy:**
Institutional and retail investors alike often incorporate both gold and Bitcoin into their portfolios to achieve diversification. While gold is a tangible asset, Bitcoin offers a digital alternative, providing a diverse range of options for investors looking to spread risk.
4. **Market Sentiment:**
Perceptions of market sentiment can significantly impact the prices of both gold and Bitcoin. Positive sentiment towards one asset class may spill over into the other, reinforcing their correlation.
5. **Macro-Economic Factors:**
Economic factors, such as interest rates, global trade tensions, and geopolitical events, can affect both gold and Bitcoin prices. Changes in these macro-economic conditions often lead to a synchronized movement in the values of these assets.
Implications for Investors:
Understanding the correlation between gold and Bitcoin can have practical implications for investors:
1. **Portfolio Allocation:**
Investors looking to create a balanced and diversified portfolio may consider incorporating both gold and Bitcoin to mitigate risks associated with traditional asset classes.
2. **Risk Management:**
Recognizing the correlation dynamics can aid investors in managing risk. During periods of economic uncertainty, a diversified portfolio with exposure to both assets may provide a more resilient investment strategy.
3. **Market Monitoring:**
Keeping a close eye on macro-economic factors, market sentiment, and developments in the cryptocurrency space is crucial for investors seeking to capitalize on potential opportunities arising from the correlation between gold and Bitcoin.
Conclusion:
The correlation between gold and Bitcoin, though not perfectly aligned, showcases the evolving landscape of modern finance. As traditional and digital assets continue to intertwine, investors are presented with new opportunities and challenges. Understanding the factors influencing the correlation between these two assets is essential for making informed investment decisions in an ever-changing financial environment. Whether seeking stability in precious metals or exploring the potential of decentralized digital currencies, investors must navigate the complexities of this symbiotic relationship.
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The above was me playing around with very specific questions on ChatGPT.
I have seen the relationship of Gold with Oil over the last 20+ years of my trading career and found it interesting to look at Gold alongside Bitcoin in recent years. Many speculate Bitcoin as a payment system. I see more a role for XRP there, Bitcoin however, I see more closely aligned with Gold and a similar function. Although you could argue Bitcoin can do both - you almost wouldn't want that. As much like gold to the dollar or the dollar back to the stock market; investors need an inlet and and exit strategy.
For me it's a fascinating topic and would love to open up a channel of discussion here below covering SP500 (SPX), Gold and Silver, Oil and of course Bitcoin.
What do you make of the dynamics? The current sentiment and of course the current global position?
Strifor || XAUUSD-11/03/2023Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: We also continue to consider sales in gold. On Friday, it is expected that after a slight consolidation, the metal will fall to the level of 1952; the level of 1938.915 is considered as the second target.
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SPX | Balance of PowerNot all is equal. And nothing is static.
Entropy is the foundation of our world, and it is the bane of a rich man's existence.
You collect in one spot, then nature comes up and spreads your work around.
Entropy is the unbeatable power of justice. In the end entropy always wins.
One has limited amount of time to temporary evade it.
Panta Rhei - Heraclitus
Everything flows. Money just like water, tends to move around. It is what it is meant to do.
Rich men need poor ones to collect from. In the end, there is nothing else to collect from the poorer ones. But the cycle must continue. No rich man could ever possibly give out wealth for free. Instead, they let nature do its trick and rebalance things.
I will now try to make a rough model of the changes in markets. Divide markets in distinct periods so as to have a better understanding on the progress of a bull market.
Energy Conservation
Money and entropy tend to spread out. When the stock market was "invented", few had the stocks and many had the money. Trading is a way to manipulate entropy to our advantage. We let nature spread what we don't need, and as a repayment we accumulate what we need. The stock market is like a free energy machine .
The invention of the stock market resulted in a massive wealth transfer, and ended with a painful crash; The Great Depression. The peak of the Roaring '20s was the peak of wealth accumulation from the few.
In the post-Great-Depression economy, money spread out again. From the few to the many.
In these decades, DJI (the big 30) stagnated while SPX (the 500) progressively got stronger.
But the big-30 had an ace up their sleve.
In trading the game must always go on. There is always a way to get richer.
And so, commodities became the new place for wealth to accumulate to.
From all of the above we have come to realize that bubble tops come when the few have accumulated the maximum possible from the many. DJI/SPX measures oligarchy, while the inverse SPX/DJI measures democracy in the spread of wealth in stocks.
Many bubbles and many crashes have followed after the Great Depression. The .com bubble crash and the GFC are memorable to young and old alike. And they all exhibit the same base structure. It is all the same, with one crucial difference.
The 2020 economy is vastly different from the 1920 economy.
The role of SPX and DJI has changed in the last few decades. DJI used to represent the companies that shaped bubbles and SPX the ones that followed. Now NDX and SPX are the indices that represent fast growth while DJI has taken the role of the "index of stability".
The modern balance-of-power measure is the following:
SPX-equal-weight divided by SPX-market-cap.
www.tradingview.com
Since I couldn't find an SPX-equal-weight index in TradingView, I have constructed a similar chart using two ETFs, RSP and IVV. The RSP/IVV chart is a good analogue to the standard chart.
And so, where do we conclude?
After much analysis we can say the following in retrospect.
The 2008 bubble was quick but with big repercussions.
Money democracy shows signs of impeding financial weakness.
And as for the post-2009 Bull Market...
We realize that it progressively turns into a bubble. While there is no definitive way to "normalize" SPX, SPX/M2SL proves a good candidate for absolute SPX cost.
Yield rates tell many tales.
Usually yield rates increase as the wide economy needs them. Strong economies need a lot of money and they can withstand high yield rates. And contrary to popular belief, yield rates are positively correlated with yield rates. Now however, the wide economy refuses to absorb such high yield rates. High production cost and high rates can destabilize the economy.
Money Democracy is Positively Correlated to Yield Rates.
Now we witness the wide economy refuse to absorb these yields.
This has resulted in unprecedented wealth accumulation from the few.
Speculation Chart:
While this type of analysis is subjective, it is interesting to see patterns repeat.
Composite Chart:
An experimental chart attempts to calculate the scale of the derivative bubble we are in.
We realize that equity prices are now lying. They are simply too inflated and riddled with derivatives to believe in.
All of that was quite complex to follow through, and even harder to make a conclusion.
In the end, the simplest analysis might be the best.
A massive bearish upward channel has formed. Now price has rejected once again off the ceiling. The real recession may have not even started yet...
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
Bonus Charts:
Have we reached a golden ceiling?
TradePlus-Fx|GOLD: high's update💬 Description: The metal follows the previously planned course exactly. Demand continues to grow, including against the backdrop of the aggravated situation in the Middle East, but in addition, purely technically, sellers cannot realize their sales at the local elites. In the very near future, most likely, Gold prices will go towards updating local highs. In turn, this will cause another activation of sellers’ stop losses, and the approach to 2000 will be implemented.
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TradePlus-Fx|EURUSD: seller liquidation💬 Description: The currency pair stood at the level of 1.06745 , which is resistance at the moment. In addition, a lot of interest has recently accumulated at this level, which has been distributed downward. The significance of this current price area is great.
I assume that the instrument will come into balance at this level to accumulate positions and "eating" away volumes in the past. Thus, we calculate a rollback to the level of 1.06350 . You can enter from this level, but be prepared to re-enter if your stop-loss is triggered. It's best to build up the pose gradually. The purpose of growth will be to eliminate sellers who now want to trade in the direction of the trend. The level that buyers will strive to reach is 1.07500.
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FCX: Monthly Diamond Top Bearish Break Down FCX has formed and confirmed the break down of a Diamond Top pattern and looks to be preparing to come down to around $14, which would align with the 0.786 Fibonacci Retrace. I suspect many other mining stocks will also go down pretty significantly with this.
Strifor || GBPUSD-10/20/2023Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: The trend of market participants moving towards safe assets continues in the market. A special place here is occupied by the US dollar, which is expected to strengthen against the British pound. In the near future, medium-term lows are likely to be updated.
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TradePlus-Fx|GOLD: small growth💬 Description: The price of Gold hovered around 1919 in anticipation of likely further growth. For now, it is expected that the growth will not be very large since there are obstacles ahead for buyers. In this case, this is the level 1948.160 , followed by the next resistance line - 1972.454.
Today, market participants are also awaiting the publication of US Retail Sales data, which is likely to generate volatility in the market. Against this background, you can try to consider purchase transactions using pending buy-stop and buy-limit orders. We fix the target for today's potential growth at the level of 1948.160.
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Precious Metals Schematics: A look into the Macro with FibonacciI have Listed Silver, Copper, Platinum, Palladium, Aluminum, and Gold into one chart. These are 6 of the top Metals all in Heikin Ashi Candle form.
They all have their own complex Fibonacci Clusters within each one. It may look confusing at first. But understand that one set of lines are horizontal extensions and another set are angled extensions within each one.
Weekly wrap and preview - SPX USOIL GOLD and SIlverA move up to 4375 area is likely in the morning to test the channel. I expect a failure but if they get over 4380 they will likely fill the gap at 4404 on spx cash. Us oil needs to get over 88 convincingly to be a solid long, right now it's just chopping around confusing both sides. Gold and SIlver both broke down and now are retesting structural resistance, it's a short opportunity but it doesn't mean it will work. On a monthly chart both could be seen as a false breakdown.
Good luck!
Long Term Yields catching a bidGood Afternoon!
Long Term #interestrates are PUMPING today!!!
The 10 & 30 Yr have been struggling in this area.
They are currently forming a negative divergence. We'll see how that goes.
3Month - 1Yr haven't moved much.
2Year #yield is also moving. This is "good"! That means that the normalization of yield curve is not happening yet.
#stocks #gold #silver
Metals Setup Apex "V" (PANIC) Bottom - Rally Will ContinueGold and Silver are setting up a nearly perfect deep "V" bottom after a bout of PANIC selling over the past few weeks. This sets up a move for Gold to rally above $2250 and Silver to rally above $28.50.
Ultimately, I believe Gold will exit the Setup Phase and peak in the next phase, the Breakaway Phase, above $2450. Silver will follow with a rally to levels above $31 as it moves away from the Setup Phase and peaks in the Breakaway Phase.
These are big moves for Gold and Silver - 15% to 25% or more.
This also sends a clear message to the general/global markets that traders are hedging the uncertainties of the conflicts and the central bank/global economy credit issues. I see the next 14 months, before the US POTUS elections (Nov 2024) and possibly a few months beyond, as very concerning for the US/Global markets.
Where will the economic growth come from to drive expansion? China is contracting. Asia is contracting. Europe is contracting. The US is still operating reasonably well, considering much higher interest rates. Canada is still holding up okay, considering an extremely over-inflated asset bubble.
How long before something breaks if the US Fed decides enough is enough and moves to PAUSE rate hikes?
I guess we won't see a pause in the US Fed until possibly May/June 2024. And that will drive a fear/hedging/panic cycle where USD assets and precious metals become an effective hedge against risks.
Pay attention. This next move in metals should be very explosive.
Strifor || USDCHF-10/12/2023Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: A slight recovery against the dollar is exactly what we expected at the beginning of the week. Very promising entry points in the market are now being formed. The situation during the publication of inflation data in the US will most likely develop in favor of the dollar. We place our targets at the level of 0.91475.
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gold h4 5 waves sequence short from resistance🔸Hello traders, today let's review 4hour price chart for gold. Downtrend in progress
currently, however oversold conditions so a bounce is likely/possible short-term.
price chart is still weak and expecting more losses in this market after the bounce.
🔸Recent downtrend is defined by 5 wave sequence, currently wave 4 bounce
in progress, expecting wave 4 to complete near 1875 usd later, and downtrend
will most likely resume in wave 5 of the sequence. the bearish sequence may
get invalidated if we get a daily close above 1885 usd, however right now recommend
to focus on shorting from overhead resistance.
🔸Recommended strategy bears: short sell from overhead resistances near 1875 usd
fixed stop loss for this entry at 1890 usd, TP1 bears is 1800 usd TP2 bears is 1775 usd.
wave 5 of the sequence should complete near 1775 usd. a/b/c correction will likely
follow, so stay tuned for further updates. good luck traders!
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Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
Strifor || XAUUSD-10/06/2023Preferred direction: SELL->BUY
Comment: The setup for Gold before the publication of NFP data remains the same. Here we are considering a fall towards the 1800 level, after which buyers will most likely begin to be more active in recent times. Therefore, today the priority is sales, and next week we are potentially considering longs.
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TradePlus-Fx|GBPUSD: today's setup💬 Description: The British pound continues to update its lows and thereby break new local anti-records. The price has already dropped below the level of 1.21166 today, which strengthens the position of sellers, especially intraday. With a high degree of probability, we also expect a fall towards the daily support 1.18730 . Considering the average daily move along with today's news background, even this may not be enough for the price to approach the specified daily target. Therefore, it is better to fix profits until the 1.18730 level.
Regarding labor market data from JOLTS , we can expect support for the dollar, after which the price may begin an upward correction. See today's expected setup on the chart.
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