WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST: INDICES, GOLD, SILVER, US OILThis is Part 2 of the Weekly Forex Forecast.
In this video, we will cover:
S&P500 NASDAQ DOW JONES GOLD SILVER WTI CRUDE OIL
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GOLD-SILVER
Silver and Gold | Short-term and long-term targetsOANDA:XAGUSD
OANDA:XAUUSD
The past two weeks' price action suggests that we can expect the correction to continue in June for Silver and Gold. After last week's NFP and unemployment rates, the expectation for rate cuts has been pushed a bit further to the last quarter of 2024 which fueled dollar to maintain its strength. On the other hand, if you take a look at the seasonality of Gold and Silver you will notice that June is usually the month for Gold to rest a bit and for Silver to show some correction.
So, In the short term, I would like to see lower prices on silver and gold and personally, I might add some more to my positions. The following are the areas for Silver and Gold which I consider as discount prices if as a long-term investor.
Silver: $27.5 - $28 is a good discount area for silver. But it doesn't mean it would definitely reach this area. I expect another rally from July with a target of $33.6 to $36.4 area.
Gold: $2190 - $2230 is the area that I believe gold will see in the near future. Then we might see another leg up on gold to hit the $2580 - $2650 area.
$BTC looks bearish#btc #bitcoin price didn't cross the major resistance area at 72K and then heavily dumped. Thus, a bearish double top has been formed. Short term bounces may be necessary but the continuation is bearish. In lower time frame, #btcusd is moving in the ascending channel.
By the way #gold and #silver heavily dumped, too. It seems rumors have been sold and the news will arrive.
Not financial advice.
Strifor || SILVER-21/05/2024Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: A long with little potential can be considered for silver in the next 1-2 days . Let us remember that earlier we also considered purchases near the level of 30.50-31.00. These trades were closed with profit and can be viewed in the profile.
Just like with currency pairs, here we are considering a small potential for strengthening against the US dollar against the backdrop of previous transactions. We are considering both scenarios presented on the chart for entering a long position, but still the more probable scenario №1 , which assumes maximum growth from current prices. In any case, a target above the level of 33.00 is not considered for today.
Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us!
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Gold relatively deep pullback..watchlisting it..Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Watching gold for it to hold the level. quite a deep pullback of 5%. Let's see how it hold out. If it holds I think i would prefer a long on Silver USD instead. Let's see how it plays out.
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
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The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
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Is gold or silver the trade to make this week? This week's trade could be a decision between gold and silver.
The former might be swayed by the seven fed officials that are planned to speak this week, while the latter could be influenced by the #SilverSqueeze movement that is tangentially related to the meme stock frenzy that reignited last week.
Gold Technical
Gold (XAU/USD) prices rose at the end of the week but did not quite test the all-time high around $2,431.
Gold is trading well above the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), with the 100 and 200 SMAs maintaining bullish slopes much below it. Renewed buying pressure beyond $2,413 might push prices above the $2,420 mark.
Silver Technical
Silver (XAG/USD) is nearing the multi-year high at $31.40. A significant break at the end of the week saw Friday's sharp rise validate the break above the multi-year trendline. The challenge for the coming week is whether silver can maintain this bullish momentum despite entering overbought territory. The frenzy we saw in meme stocks might be dampening down too, with 2 days of declines following the surge. But it might be premature to count anything out yet.
The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the range of 70.00, possibly suggesting bullish momentum. The next resistance level is $31.50 from May 2011. In this fundamentally detached market, the next support could lie all the way back at where the metal was trading before the surge.
Weekly Forex Forecast: May 20-25th Part 2This 2 part video covers...
- USD Index, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, USDJPY
- S&P500, NASDAQ, GOLD, SILVER, CRUDE OIL
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May profits be upon you.
A Traders’ Week Ahead Playbook • Key event risks for the week ahead.
• Nvidia’s Q125 earnings, a key driver of equity markets this week.
• Fed speakers could move markets – Powell, Waller, and Jefferson in the spotlight.
• US equity markets at all-time highs – fatigued, but well-supported.
• Copper, gold, platinum, and silver are all on fire.
The key event risks for traders this week
We look ahead and eye the key event risk, where I would be paying particular attention to earnings from Nvidia, and speeches from Fed members Waller (he speaks 3 times this week), Jefferson and Chair Powell. We get UK, and Canadian CPI, and will keep a beady eye on the narrative out from the RBNZ meeting, which will keep rates hold but guide on the future direction of rates. We also get manufacturing and services PMIs in the US, UK, Australia, and Europe.
UK CPI (due Wed at 16:00 AEST) could get the GBP moving – in either direction – with UK swaps market pricing a near 60% probability of a 25bp cut in the 20 June BoE meeting, and 55bp of cuts by December, and with core CPI expected to fall to 3.6% y/y (from 4.2%) and headline CPI eyed at 2.1% y/y, a lower-than-forecast CPI print could cement a June cut in the market eyes. For those wanting to trade GBP downside, short GBPNZD was the play last week, although, with the RBNZ meeting due on Wednesday, an extension of this trade has risk.
Nvidia should beat but by how much?
Q125 earnings from Nvidia could get the AI-related semis and the NAS100 firing up (or lower), and even set off moves across other markets too. When the options market prices an 8.6% move on the day of earnings, if this implied move proves to be correct, that’s a staggering $195b in market cap gained or lost in a likely 60-minute window. It would also equate to a -/+0.5% move in S&P500 futures in the after-hours session.
We know Nvidia will likely beat the sell-side (investment banks) consensus estimates for revenue, EPS, and gross margins - they always do - but it’s the extent of the beat that matters. Q125 sales are eyed at $24.61b, with Q225 sales guidance expected to come in around $26.72b – one suspects they’ll need to hit us with sales of GETTEX:26B + for Q125 sales and GETTEX:29B for Q225 sales respectively, with CEO Jensen Huang with inspiring guidance to get this pumping like we saw in February.
Fed speakers to watch out for
The message last week from the Fed was one of patience and this message is likely what we’ll hear from Fed speakers this week as well. Chair Powell, Fed board member Waller and Vice-chair Jefferson will be the central focus here, and their views on inflation and policy could move markets, although broadly, markets feel comfortable with the current pricing of 43bp of cuts priced by December, and we see US 2yr Treasuries holding a range of 4.89% to 4.70%.
Last week’s US CPI was encouraging and while this week’s US PMI data could move the dial, notably, if the services print were to surprise and pull below 50 (consensus is at 51.4) it could lift volatility and promote USD sellers. That said, it feels like the market is looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls print on 7 June as the next big piece of the macro jigsaw.
US data has been missing the mark on a consistent basis since mid-April and that has led some to say the US economy is moving towards a ‘soft landing’ environment and away from a ‘no landing’ dynamic. Add in solid earnings beats and growth, a renewed belief in the ‘Fed put’ and a world with a huge appetite to sell volatility (the VIX now sits at a lowly 11.99%) - and we have the S&P500, Dow and NAS100 at all-time highs.
This is a tough market for those in short positions for more than an intraday day trade, and those positioned for downside would be hoping that Nvidia disappoints in a big way. Nvidia are not a company I would typically bet against, so even though the various US indices look tired, the platform is set for further highs and pullbacks should be shallow.
This is true of the HK50/CHINAH indices too, which have had another incredible week of gains. Data in China is lacking this week, so we are fully at the mercy of liquidity and flows. 20k is the near-term target for the HK50 index, but I would consider switching some of HK50 exposure towards the mainland equity markets and the CN50 index, which has broken out and outperformed HK equity on Friday.
We’ll see if some of the goodwill towards China can spill over into the ASX200, which saw supply above 7850 last week – should the ASX200 kick through 7860 early I would be looking for a re-test of Thursday’s highs (7900) and even new all-time highs above 7910.
Copper on fire
The action continues to be in the metals complex – the space is red hot. Copper closed 4.1% higher on Friday, taking the gains for the week to 8.3%, and for the trend-followers and momentum traders, the daily chart is a thing of beauty. Many know the story on reduced copper supply, and those highly focused on the copper scene would be aware of the massive short covering seen in CME futures positioning since mid-February (-42k contracts to stand at +72k) and the widening premium of CME copper to LME copper to $1041 - but the move in copper is momentum 101 and discretionary and systematic players have had to chase.
For FX traders, this move in copper remains a huge tailwind for the CLP (Chilean peso), where USDCLP has fallen 9.4% since mid-April.
Market players chasing silver, platinum and gold
The chase higher from various market players is also true in silver, which had its best week since August 2020, helped by a monster move of 6.5% on Friday, which took price through to the best levels since Feb 2013. Platinum has participated with an 8.8% weekly gain, while gold closed at a new closing high, and eyes the all-time intraday high of $2431.52 – a weekly close above here this week and the FOMO chase could be real.
The question of exactly what is driving the gold move above $2400 is one we hear frequently. The fact we saw US real rates (i.e. US bonds adjusted for expected inflation) rise 3bp higher on Friday – typically a headwind for gold - yet gold rallied 1.6% details that there are other factors than rates driving gold flows – these include a broad base rally in metals, central bank buying, increasing Chinese gold holdings (relative to its international reserves), a hedge against ballooning government deficits; it’s all there and it seems we always have to pick a reasoning behind a move after the fact.
I have little idea how anyone trades gold short-term from a purely fundamental standpoint. My view is to be a slave to price action, react, align with the short-term trend, and cut quickly when the move goes against you.
Anyhow, another big week of market themes and risk to have on the radar.
Good luck to all.
5-Year SPX500 Expectations - Greatest Opportunity Of Your LifeWould you believe me if I told you the US & global markets (some) will rally more than 65% to 125% (or more) over the next 4 to 5+ years?
You would probably call me crazy for even suggesting that will happen in a reasonably short time frame.
But, what if I could show you how structurally (using Elliot Wave concepts and Fibonacci) this incredible rally may already be baked into the markets?
What if I could show you that, barring any major economic destruction event, the US Fed and Global Central banks may have unleashed the inflation beast - which could lead to massive Hyperinflation over the next 5+ years?
Would you be prepared for it? Would you even believe me if I could show you evidence that it may happen much quicker than you can imagine?
And would you believe me if I told you Gold/Silver will rally more than 500% over the next 5+ years while attempting to hedge global debt/inflation risks?
Now is the time to prepare for the greatest opportunity of your life. You must understand the structural mechanics of price related to the current global market dynamics.
Please boost and share this video with your friends. Everyone needs to be aware of what is likely to happen over the next 5+ years so they can prepare for and profit from these exceptional price trends.
Precious metals have been just that, precious Gold SilverThe US #Dollar is trading in the middle of its range since Late 2022.
It is also holding the recent uptrend well.
TVC:VIX is a tad lower today.
#Gold & #Silver still look good, Daily & Weekly.
Loading up on AMEX:SLV when we stated the inverse head & shoulder was a good move.
(took some off recently but still have large position)
AMEX:CEF AMEX:GLD
Silver Will Continue To Channel In Dual-Flag SetupIf you are trading Silver, you need to see this video. Be prepared for a sideways melt-up in Silver while the dual Flags play out.
Gold will likely move more aggressively than Silver. But Silver will give you two or three opportunities to buy into the lows.
Pay attention.
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