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GOLD-SILVER

WTI Crude / CL - An Intervention: Saving Blind BullsWhen crude was trading at $120 a few months ago, all you would hear on Twitter from people like Javier Blas from Bloomberg and other propaganda pundits is about how the fundamentals of oil are so bullish, because OPEC production is maxed out, the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine, domestic demand because summer, the government donating the strategic reserves to Chinese Communist Party firms on the cheap , etc, etc. There was all that chatter about Europe putting a price cap on Russian oil, and that causing the price to surge overnight to $350 in some kind of dystopian nightmare. At the time, everyone wanted to get long. Everyone would only get long. I remember one day in July oil returned to $91 on like a 10% daily drop and one Twitter pundit thanked the market makers for their "delta squeezing put options" before expiry and that he was happy that he got to buy calls that cheap because it was never going to happen again. This is the way bull runs are. They tend to end when the narrative flips entirely to "who would ever short this?!" And that ending is easier for bulls when something gaps down and breaks the momentum than it is with the price pattern being employed by the WTI MMs where everything all the way up and all the way down is trading in an efficient pattern that seeks-and-destroys both ways on the shorter timeframe. In terms of specific price action, as I pointed out in my early August call that oil was on its way to far lower double digit numbers: WTI Crude Oil - Running and Gunning That the August price action with a quiet sweep of the July ~$86 lows, followed by a bounce, followed by a quadruple bottom, was simply too naive to think would be support. Now, we're at $81, and it once again sounds like a dip to buy. And while we're probably going to see a run back to $86~, this market is no longer in a dip to buy position. A lot of things make sense when you look at the monthly: All of this price action we just experienced in early 2021 was, ultimately, a clean up of the unfinished business from the 2008 bubble pop, which was never addressed during the 2010-2014 ranging. And really, after oil hit... -$38 during Coronavirus Disease 2019 hysteria, you really have to call that the bottom. If you can't call -$38 the bottom, what would a bottom ever be? Now, for those who guffaw at the prospect of oil going back to $50, this is totally fair enough. As always, it sounds impossible, until it unfolds. Humans are only able to believe in what they see. Having even a modicum of faith is a real stretch for almost everyone. But I would like to point out that there is a precedental fractal left behind in the run up to the 2008 bubble pop, which you can see on the left hand side of the monthly chart above. Oil more or less traded in a miniature of this exact same 2022 pattern. When it broke its pivots before finally rocketing to $140, it amounted to a total 35% $28 downturn, which was an enormous number in those trading ranges. Everything is highly inflated and much more volatile and interesting today. The weekly chart shows just how dangerous the situation is for bulls. The reality is, the only inefficiency during this current market structure is in this $81 range, which we are sitting in. It's not showing a lot of interest in bouncing, and it would have to get back into the $100s to really count as a reversal. So if $80 isn't the target to make a bottom at, what is? Well, looking at the daily we can see more clearly that there's something of a plan B in the $69 range that can count as maintaining market structure if a reversal occurs within it. And there's also a chance to maintain the trendline at $66. But in reality, there's a fat double bottom to blow away formed from the September and December 2021 lows. And based on the weekly, there are inefficiencies left behind that were never readdressed at the unfortunate numbers around $50, and specifically right under the psychological $50 level. In my opinion, before oil turns around and rips North to levels that will make living in this world nearly impossible for everyone who isn't a billionaire, the MMs will seek and destroy these levels. And they may stop being so polite about it. It may start to come faster and faster. At some point in the near term future, dumps may come with a quick and significant gap down, and this time, they won't fill. Pundits, analysts, and all sorts of charlatans will all be stunned and bewildered by how it could happen under the macro conditions. And then they will all say "oh, of course, look at these data points. It was only natural that $120 was an inflated number." The answer, they will say, is undoubtedly "something something mainland China 'Zero-COVID' economic demand," not understanding the real state of disaster being wrought in that country as Wuhan Pneumonia goes on a tear and the Chinese Communist Party is starting to be unable to cover it up for much longer. But $125~ was not a top for WTI crude, and neither was $140. A much more painful number like $180 or $200 is coming, and it's not going to take years to get there. I believe that natural gas, likewise, has a lot of downside left to go: Natural Gas / NG - What, Truly, Is a Bull? A lot of things are probably going to bounce for a bit longer and then start to very aggressively dump. You should be prepared for this. Stop listening to talking heads, propaganda, and charlatans, and be rational. None of them want to help you survive financially and none of them want you to be rich. Most of them don't even trade. Trading is hard. Everyone who has ever traded with live funds knows how hard it is to get in at the right time, in the right direction, and hold through all the chaos and pain until something bears fruit. Fronting and flexing on the Internet to a flock of 50 Cent Party bots and collecting a 6 figure salary from Bloomberg or a 6 figure donation from YouTube's profit sharing program, on the other hand, is just so, so easy. Talk is cheap, and yet, mastery is not. Rationality is, ultimately, linked to your level of morality and your values.
NYMEX:CL1!
by LordWrymouth
4
GOLD🥇 channel breakoutHi folks! Please 1st of all click the boost 🚀 button if you want me to post more ideas and follow me to support my work! It's absolutely for free. GOLD made new all-time high back in 2020 and then pulled back to 1676 which set the trading range for next year and a half. During that period there was a break of violet downtrendline which was subsequently backtested and provided support several times. Now just recently price tried to break down out of the range but the breakout failed as there was no real follow through and actually after few days GOLD bounced strongly and got back inside the range (above range low). Currently price is just trying to break the yellow downward channel in which price was "locked" from last march. IF it really breaks up, then we could see move to the upper range (2000ish) in next weeks/months. See my silver analysis which supports this gold thesis: See my Gold/Silver ratio analysis which supports this gold thesis: Check my other stuff in related ideas. Please boost🚀, comment🗣️, follow me✒️, enjoy📺! ⚠️Disclaimer: I'm not financial advisor. This is not a financial advice. Do your own due dilingence.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by bizmark
5
GOLD & SILVER | BIGGER PICTURE GOLD - The Yellow Metal The precious metal has broken the all important support of $1680 after more than 2 years. On the bigger picture, we have seen forming a cup & handle pattern and was predicting a breakout above Covid high will bring it to $4000 to $5000. However, the pattern failed badly and yellow metal formed a double top at $2070 instead. Trendwise, the metal is trading below the 100EMA meaning the trend is downward. Current Scenario; As long as Gold trades below the neckline of double top ($1680); the possible target seems to be at $1350 - $1300. -------------------------------------- SILVER - Lustrous White Metal The white shinning metal is also trading below the all important support of $21 which it breaks after more than 2 years time. Silver is also trading below the 100EMA making it in a bearish trend. The downside target remains open at $15 and will remain intact as long as price remains belows $21. Let us know what do you think of the idea?
TVC:GOLD
by TradeTrio
Which is shinier: Bitcoin or Gold? Okay plebs, listen up. This is the chart I've been using to trade between precious metals and bitcoin, ethereum, and other cryptos. It is a custom chart, adding gold and silver with a modern ratio, doing the same with BTC and ETH, and pitting them against each other. What you get? A smooth chart that obeys technical analysis quite nicely. And here we have a compression triangle. I drew those dotted lines of the triangle before it pinged them the last 2 times upward and downward, so I know it's legit. And what happens with a compression triangle? When it gets to that last bit like it is now, it breaks out in one direction or the other. The direction is yet undecided, but it FAVORS the direction it was going before the triangle started forming. That is, it is more than likely to break out strongly in the upward direction, favoring precious metals. This has been building for quite some time, and indicates that the smart money has been rotating from the crypto sector to the PM sector REGARDLESS OF HOW YOU PERSONALLY FEEL ABOUT GOLD. I know, it can be a hard pill to swallow, but hey, the charts don't lie and I'd rather give it to you straight. Makes sense, afterall, we're in crypto winter atm. At the same time, global economies are unstable, which historically favors gold. While I believe one day digital gold will shine again, that day is probably a few years off at least. For now, real gold is what shines. Peace yall THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE Want to know how I trade directly between cryptos and allocated physical precious metals? You'll have to ask me.
TVC:GOLDLong
by greenvention
1
Round 2 for Bitcoin? A Rally to $25k, then possibly $35k?I'm starting to think capital will aggressively move into speculative safe-haven assets (gold/silver/platinum/bitcoin) over the next 4+ months as the global markets address Fed, stock market, credit/debt risks. If this is the case, then the $18,975 level becomes a critical line of support. Not that the Fed has fired off its round (rate increase), will capital move away from certain sectors and start rallying into safe-haven assets? Time will tell...
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BradMatheny
3
Copper HG - Is It Finally Time?I have witnessed much consternation on Twitter over the last months and weeks about how Copper, a critical industrial element, continues to decline in price. All the while, like most other metals, the exchange vaults are being raided of thousands of tons of physical spot, which futures markets need to back short positions. One would think this would result in a price increase, and yet, metals have remained exceedingly bearish. Whether Copper can constitute a commodity in a price action cycle that can be considered bullish, rather than bearish, boils down to whether or not you believe that the $5 all time high set during the 2021-2022 bull run is either the ultimate top or the medium and short term top. Looking at the monthly, the situation is more clear: This pattern stands in sharp contrast to say, Soybeans, which has a very similar pattern of price action, but is less bearish over the last 3 months and also failed to set a new all time high during the early 2022 supercycle test run. Soybeans ZS - Lagging the Pack, but Ready to Go And is somewhat more like Wheat, which did take out the previous long term high, albeit only on a short term sweep. Wheat Futures - ZW - Like Snakes in a Can The contrast is that copper ran the old high three times already. So you really have to consider that the ultimate top may be in. More information on Copper HG can be discerned from the weekly, which shows notable gaps above $4, a healthy V-Bottom following the July dumps, and a close, albeit not-too-close, range bottom to the key Sept' 20 pivot: Breaking it down into the daily, we can see that July month end and August open plinked out a dump high, followed by August being characterized by a slow grind upwards before finally selling off at the end of the month: September, thus far, has opened very bearish, taking out the August pivot (twice, now), yet retaining the overall market structure, and showing an indication that it wants to trade higher. September is not likely to finish in a straight line down. What I like about this call is that while I have mixed feelings that copper will ever see $5 again, despite all the fundamentals saying it really ought to trade for a lot more, the reality is that I believe if it were to turn around and dump to new lows in the low $3s or mid-high $2s, it certainly does this, more likely than not, after raiding the $4 level first, based on how price action has developed. Currently, we're still young in the month and copper has so far traded bearishly, although it's showing a lot of promise in its price action that higher prices, rather than lower prices, are sought for now. The situation in this world is very strange at present. Energy shortages and food shortages are looming, hard, especially if you are in Europe. Recession, aka "Depression" is looming everywhere, and yet the U.S. equities market is still trading pretty high and for a lot of us life is just normal, albeit not as pleasant as before. The dollar index is mooning and many critical currencies from other countries, including ones as strong and crucial as Japan, are being slaughtered, and yet, no matter how siren-sounding Twitter is, price action does not reflect a degree of panic really anywhere. Even WTI Crude Oil, which I called would trade towards the $81 mark at the beginning of August, is trading in such a fashion that despite losing 30% of its value, there is still no fear, no shock and awe. WTI Crude Oil - Running and Gunning And even so far as Natural Gas NG has already lost more than 10%, somehow despite all the fundamentals saying otherwise, nobody is batting an eyelid. Natural Gas / NG - What, Truly, Is a Bull? Right now, everything, everywhere, is just business as usual, and another dip to buy. But for how much longer? A 72 VIX print is looming in the cards, and the lack of fear will truly have such a move catch many off guard. VIX - 9x8 = 72 The hardest thing in trading is not determining the direction or the targets. Instead, the hardest thing is gauging and predicting _when_ the move will happen and how it will unfold, since time is weaponized, and not very many things go up or down in a straight line all that often. Frankly, reason stands that the reality is that we will see Copper trade for prices like $10 in the relatively close future, and if so, then this price action we're sitting at is truly the place where the abyss will start to rage from. But to go long for that day... when does it really unfold? More likely than not, if you want to aim for numbers over $5, you're looking at a date in 2023, and it's very hard to trade options and futures that far out. And never forget, the world's greatest "black swan" looming is the coming collapse of the Chinese Communist Party . When that day really unfolds, most of the world's population will be bamboozled and caught off guard, which is why I call it a "black swan." But in reality, it is a development that is so, so easy to see. If you can't see it, maybe renounce your faith in communism, socialism, Marxist-Leninist stuff, and have better thoughts. Position yourself with the mentality that saw the world defeat Hitler in World War 2. The CCP has killed more than 100 million of its own people during its sanguine 100-year reign, including the 23-year-long organ harvesting persecution against Falun Gong meditation. How much longer can a group of rogues squatting in Shanghai last, soaked in sins like that? Rationality is simply too critical, and the level of one's rationality is connected directly to the level of their morality.
COMEX:HG1!
by LordWrymouth
3
#GBPUSD lowest level since 1985! Britain to suffer in the2020's Shown is just a simple chart for the British Pound. For most of this charts life the #POUND has traded above the violet shaded S&R zone until the #BREXIT vote which led to the breaking of major support. As you can see after breaking below the brown shaded S&R zone it has reversed its role to now resistance from below. #GBPUSD has been forming the blue rectangle which has now made a new all time low in the history of this currency. I believe it will enter a new trading zone over the next few years... with a possibility of continuing on to its ultimate target of 0.71 meaning less than 3/4 of a dollar will buy 1 Great British POUND Even though #BITCOIN, #GOLD, #SILVER are coming under pressure At some point British citizens would be advised to seek shelter in alternate forms of money.
Short
by BallaJi
3
Is still the Energy a Good Bet in perspective of recessionEnergy sector it’s the best performing market sector in 2022 instead of the latest evolution of Oil. Evolution of energy sector its close correlated with war between Russia & Ukraine. But we need to recap last week’s events. Russia shut down its Nord Stream 1 natural gas pipeline last week for “maintenance” and will thereby provide Europe with a preview of how will looks winter this year. Instead of opening terminal in Estonia from Norway and new delivery from Spain, or imports from Canada & Qatar Europe can’t replace completely Russian energy and Europeans will have higher bills for energy-related products. Its expected price caps but this will result in more shortage of Gas & Oil. There is a growing possibility in the case of a regime change in Russia that could disrupt the crude oil and natural gas markets. We support this idea because of latest development of war, Ukrainian soldiers regain 6000 KM2. Also, six of Putin’s allies have been shot or blown up, so Putin’s inner circle is becoming increasingly isolated. “Special operation” support is lowering because of Europe sanctions from 85% to 68% according to Levada.ru press agency. In the event that there is a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, post-Putin, the stock market could explode 40% to the upside. However, as long as Putin remains in power, the Ukrainian war is expected to persist in a long, and we will have high price of energy. We reduce our profitable positions this week in anticipation of pervious scenario. After last days of Ukrainian Army advance we can see already a turning point of conflict. We closed some energy positions like Alvopetro (Alvof) and Petroleo Brasil (PBA) +30% opened in March because we had important gains from price appreciation and large dividends, with higher risk of president Jair Bolsonaro intervention in companies’ administration. We anticipate Corporate Earnings to decline except Energy. We remain skeptical that a new Iranian nuclear deal will be announced in the upcoming weeks because this will affect Bidden administration and relationship between USA and Israel. What About US Inflation U.S. inflation may have peaked, but at high levels thus forcing the Fed to remain restrictive. Strong dollar, high mortgage rates, lower commodity prices, lower demand, and reduced supply chain pressures are likely to help reduce inflation over the next year. The U.S. dollar should stabilize over the medium-term amid hawkishness from other central banks and slowing economic data this is positive for growth stocks in short term. Right now, CPI was published and is above expected values but market overreacted this bad news. Today’s CPI report wasn’t a game changer. A “better balance” in the labor market would be a game changer for CPI next months because higher vacancies-to-unemployment ratio fuels inflation. Just read Societe Generale opinion below: Societe Generale Research discusses the USD outlook and sees the currency rally close to its peak. "Aggressive fiscal reaction to higher energy prices encourages our belief that while the euro and pound won’t stage significant rallies until the we’re closer to the end of the energy crisis (and the end of the war in Ukraine), the dollar’s peak isn’t very far away," SocGen notes. "A period of EUR/USD and GBP/USD trading in low ranges is more likely than fresh 10% fall from here and it’s much more likely the next 10% move in USD/JPY is down, rather than up, too," SocGen adds. We can see at the end of the year decline in USD and we acquired new positions on Gold, Silver and Banks European Index (EXX1), also new positions in Citi (C) Societe Generale Bank (GLE). Right now, we have a late cycle development and we prefer equities instead of fixed income like bonds. Not all equities are good to own right now, we select just strong companies with large cash flow from sectors like Healthcare, Consumer Samples and Utilities, Renewable Energy. We favor commodity and companies that mine uranium and lithium for Green Energy Industry. Good green Companies: ENPH Enphase Energy, Inc. SEDG SolarEdge Technologies, Inc. VWS Vestas Wind Systems A/S PLUG Plug Power Inc. FSLR First Solar, Inc. ED Consolidated Edison, Inc. ORSTED Orsted RUN Sunrun Inc. EDP-Energias de Portugal SA 968 Xinyi Solar Holdings Ltd. 541450 Adani Green Energy Limited 9502 Chubu Electric Power Company,Incorporated BE Bloom Energy Corporation Class A SGRE Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy, S.A. DQ Daqo New Energy Corp Sponsored ADR Best Lithium Producers Albemarle Corporation (NYSE:ALB:US) Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium (OTC Pink:GNENF,SZSE:002460) Lithium America Corp (LAC) Sociedad Quimica y Minera S.A. (NYSE:SQM:US) Allkem (ASX:AKE, OTC Pink:OROCF) Some of the problems that markets will have to face in the near future: Increased food and energy prices are causing acute trade imbalances and civil disorder in the most vulnerable countries. Europe will enter to recession. China, COVID pandemic continues, massively affecting its economy. Simultaneously, the Chinese property complex – key to Chinese economic growth – is now under dire stress. Greatest fiscal tightening in history as governments withdraw COVID stimulus will impact companies’ margins and profitability. Population decline will pose threats to economic growths. No single G7 country’s is producing new born at replacement rate. Climate problems, higher temperatures, on all continents will have a major impact for agriculture next years. We see now all vectors for an epic super-bubble because all of the assets, stocks, bonds, houses are overvalued. Right now we experience first stages with inflation and interest’s rates surge but will have sooner than later lower corporate margins and unemployment.
SP:SPN
by topfxinvest
Market update: megacaps stay down, metals hold up $qqq $slvMega caps make large percentages in the indices now a days. So if mega caps sell off, you better be certain the rest of the market is going with it. this 5% ish drop in nasdaq and tech related stocks places some of the megacap at significant levels. I hope they can hold their support, or else bad things happen. And doesnt it make sense that if inflation theme is sticking around, that the precious metals do their job and keep up with inflation? I mean what a battle between interest rates rising and overall money supply, am i right :D Come one people, silver for example is in the same price range it was 2008 and still is below all time highs from the 70s and 80s. Precious metals havent done anything in a decade. Either precious metals dont work as inflation hedges, or the party is just getting started. Ill have the answer in a decade, cuz thats how long it takes historically to find out, (not a joke). META SLV PLTM AAPL QQQ
NASDAQ:META
by ValuePig
$AERC back in after selling the top 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management My team entered interior air space purification company Aeroclean Technologies $AERC today at $10.60 per share. Last time we entered we didn't intend for it be a tradingview trade, but we ended up walking away with a 20.9% gain before it fell to its current share price. If $AERC starts running, we do not intend to hold it for very long. We would like to be out before Thursday. OUR ENTRY: $10.60 STOP LOSS: $10 If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
ALong
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
4
Called it Perfectly. August 27 till now - LOVE IT. Were you following my research? On August 27, 2022, I predicted Bitcoin would fall to below $18,800 near a critical inflection point (9-6~9-8), then form a quick base and begin an incredible new rally phase up to $35k to $30k. Watching Bitcoin move downward and struggle near the $18,800 level was incredible. I posted a comment that we should see Bitcoin begin a new rally phase very quickly on Wednesday (9-7). Waking up today to see Bitcoin +$1700 and seeing the size of this rally phase confirmed my analysis was SPOT ON. All of this was done with my ADL predictive modeling system. It can be an incredible resource when interpreted accurately. Stay tuned; more to come - and keep an eye out for the $30k+ range/top for Bitcoin.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BradMatheny
Bitcoin should be very close to a major bottom right nowMy analysis suggests Bitcoin needed to move below the $18.9k level in order to setup a new momentum base - then launch to levels above $25k (possibly targeting $30k or higher). I suggest Bitcoin traders start to look for a base/bottom setup below $18.8 (if possible) as I expect a very big rush to safety taking place over the next 60+ days. I believe this flight to safety will be the result of some geopolitical event - not a Fed event. Possibly China/Russia or somewhere else. My research suggests the second half of 2022 is highly likely to include a major cycle inflection trigger. Watch OIL, GOLD, SILVER, US Dollar and other major indexes. Something very big is going to hit between now and the end of September 2022. Bitcoin should start to bottom and then move above $23k fairly quickly - possibly within 10+ days.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BradMatheny