💰 Exploring the Potential of Investing in Precious Metals.Throughout the ages, the allure of rare and captivating metals like gold, silver, platinum, and palladium has remained unwavering. Their scarcity, exquisite aesthetics, and enduring nature have made them objects of desire. While these metals are commonly associated with ornamental jewelry, their utility extends far beyond adornment, finding applications in various industrial and technological realms. Moreover, precious metals have long been regarded as a safeguard against inflation and a sanctuary for investors amidst economic upheaval. Consequently, the trading of these invaluable commodities has evolved into a pivotal component of the global financial landscape, witnessing the exchange of billions of dollars each passing day. In this exposition, we embark upon an exploration of the fundamentals of precious metals trading: the mechanisms at play, the influential factors shaping prices, and the diverse avenues through which investors can partake in this exhilarating and ever-evolving marketplace.
The vast realm of metals is neatly divided into two distinct groups: ferrous and nonferrous. The former encompasses iron, manganese, and chromium, although experts occasionally question the inclusion of the latter metal. This classification extends to alloys containing elements from these primary ferrous metals.
Understanding Precious Metals
From an official statistical perspective, ferrous metals command an overwhelming share, reaching up to 90%. One would naturally assume that such metals enjoy significant demand on stock exchanges. However, in reality, a majority of transactions occur outside the realm of these exchanges, transpiring directly between buyers and sellers. Consequently, the ferrous metals market and its liquidity do not boast the most favorable conditions.
Within this category, certain metals hold a prominent position in exchange trading, namely: gold, silver, platinum, palladium, copper, aluminum, zinc, and nickel. Amongst these, gold and silver reign as the favored choices among traders and investors.
To comprehend the market of precious metals in its entirety, it is imperative to examine it through two essential lenses: the functional aspect and the institutional perspective. Ultimately, the market represents a harmonious amalgamation of diverse spheres, encompassing not only extraction, production, and processing but also the final sale to consumers.
The price of precious metals is subject to the influence of various factors, encompassing:
Supply and demand dynamics: The fundamental principles of supply and demand exert a significant impact on precious metal prices. Limited supply coupled with high demand typically drives prices upward.
Economic indicators: Economic data, including inflation rates, interest rates, and GDP growth, can shape the price trajectory of precious metals. For instance, during periods of elevated inflation, investors often seek refuge in precious metals as a store of value, leading to increased demand and subsequent price appreciation.
Geopolitical events: Geopolitical occurrences like wars, trade conflicts, and political instability have the potential to sway precious metal prices. When geopolitical tensions escalate, investors frequently turn to precious metals as a safe haven, fueling demand and subsequently driving prices higher.
Currency fluctuations: Since the price of precious metals is commonly denominated in US dollars, fluctuations in currency value can impact metal prices. For instance, if the US dollar strengthens, precious metal prices may experience a decline as they become relatively more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
Investor sentiment: The sentiment and outlook of investors can play a vital role in shaping precious metal prices. Bullish sentiment may lead to increased buying activity, resulting in price surges. Conversely, bearish sentiment may prompt investors to sell their holdings, leading to price declines.
To summarize, the price of precious metals is influenced by a multifaceted interplay of factors, ranging from the core dynamics of supply and demand to geopolitical events and currency fluctuations.
Investing in precious metals offers several avenues for investors to participate in the market. Here are three of the most popular approaches:
Stocks: Investors can purchase shares in mining companies engaged in the extraction of precious metals like gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. The stock prices of these companies often correlate closely with the underlying metal's price, as their profitability is tied to production costs and market demand.
Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs): Precious metal ETFs enable investors to buy shares in a fund that holds physical precious metals, such as gold or silver. These funds aim to track the price movements of the respective metal, providing a convenient means of exposure to the market without the need for physical storage and transportation of the metals.
Contracts for Difference (CFDs): CFDs are financial instruments that allow investors to speculate on the price fluctuations of precious metals without owning the physical metal itself. By entering into a contract with a broker, investors can buy or sell the metal at a predetermined price on a future date. CFDs are a more speculative approach, involving leverage and potentially significant losses if the metal's price moves unfavorably.
The potential earnings from trading precious metals can vary greatly and are highly dependent on individual factors and market conditions. It's important to note that trading in precious metals can be subject to volatility and fluctuations, and there are no guarantees of specific earnings. While gold and silver have demonstrated a long-term upward trend, it is crucial to approach trading with realistic expectations.
Over the long term, precious metals have historically shown the potential for favorable returns. However, short-term gains can be less predictable. It's important to have a long-term perspective and not expect significant profits within a short period. Patience and a strategic approach are key when investing in precious metals.
It's worth mentioning that the scarcity of precious metals, especially gold, has a significant impact on their value. As the available supply diminishes over time while demand remains steady or increases, the price per unit tends to rise. This trend is driven by the basic principles of supply and demand.
In summary, while precious metals can offer good returns over the long term, it's important to manage expectations and understand that substantial earnings may take years or even decades to materialize.
Investing in precious metals offers both advantages and disadvantages. Here are the key pros and cons to consider:
Advantages:
Safe haven investment: Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are often viewed as safe haven assets during economic uncertainty or market instability. They can act as a hedge against inflation, currency devaluation, and geopolitical risks.
Diversification: Precious metals provide diversification benefits to an investment portfolio. They have a low correlation with traditional assets like stocks and bonds, which can help reduce overall portfolio risk and enhance stability.
Tangible assets: Precious metals are physical assets that can be held directly, offering a sense of ownership and security for some investors. Having tangible assets can also provide a potential alternative during times of financial crisis or disruptions in the banking system.
Disadvantages:
Volatility: Precious metal prices can be highly volatile, experiencing significant price swings within short periods. This volatility can pose risks, especially for short-term traders or those seeking quick profits.
Limited income potential: Unlike stocks or bonds, precious metals do not generate income through interest payments or dividends. Their value primarily relies on price appreciation, which may limit their long-term growth potential compared to income-generating investments.
Storage and insurance costs: If investing in physical precious metals, storage and insurance expenses can add to the overall costs of ownership. Proper storage facilities and insurance coverage are necessary to protect the value of the assets, which can eat into potential returns.
Market manipulation concerns: Critics argue that the precious metals market may be susceptible to manipulation by large players or governments, potentially leading to artificial price movements that may not reflect true supply and demand dynamics.
It's important for investors to carefully weigh these advantages and disadvantages, taking into account their financial goals, risk tolerance, and the broader investment landscape. Consulting with a financial advisor or conducting thorough research is recommended before making any investment decisions in precious metals.
Are Precious Metals A Good Investment For You?
Determining whether precious metals are a good investment for you requires considering various factors such as your financial goals, risk tolerance, and investment timeframe. Here are some key points to consider:
Diversification: Precious metals can serve as a valuable component of a diversified investment portfolio, as they often have a low correlation with other asset classes. This diversification can help mitigate risk and stabilize portfolio performance.
Inflation protection: Precious metals are historically considered a hedge against inflation since their value tends to rise when the purchasing power of fiat currencies declines. If protecting against inflation is a priority for you, investing in precious metals could be advantageous.
Volatility: It's important to recognize that precious metals can experience significant price volatility, which may not align with the risk tolerance of every investor. If you are uncomfortable with substantial price fluctuations, other investment options may be more suitable.
Liquidity: Precious metals generally offer high liquidity, meaning they can be easily bought or sold on major exchanges. This accessibility allows for flexibility and quick access to funds when needed.
Long-term perspective: Investing in precious metals, particularly gold, often yields gradual and steady returns over the long term. Patience is crucial when investing in these assets, as their growth tends to occur gradually rather than in short-term bursts.
Considering these factors, it is recommended to conduct thorough research, assess your individual circumstances, and consult with a financial advisor before deciding if precious metals are a suitable investment for you.
GOLD-SILVER
Strifor || GOLD-07/14/2023Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: The buyer retains the initiative and the previous trading idea for gold in force. We are considering longs, it is best to do this from next week. There is a possibility that at first the sellers will try to approach the level of 1938.915, which is unlikely to succeed, but there will probably still be movement in that direction. The medium-term target for longs is at the level of 1981.680.
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DXY sliding downDollar index show rise in currencies like swiss franc. Every bull run in gold and silver has been linked with a rise in swiss franc since they used to have large gold holding.
If dollar persists lower and sticky inflation and sticky rates, does that mean that the market is pricing in more debt and money printing? Is the break out in swiss franc marking a green light for metals?
$GOLD - WYCKOFF RE-ACCUMULATION - BULLISH - LONG TERM PLAYGOLD completing signs of RE-accumulation, Currently in the Last Point of Supply.
Now looking for signs of strength likely with in the next couple Weeks/Months
***Another Textbook Wyckoff Study case we've seen in a while.***
*** THIS IS A WEEKLY CHART *** Could take months to fully playout ,
PLEASE YOLO YOUR LIVE SAVINGS *at your own risk* - NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
Natural Gas - The Girl Who Hopes You Remember HerSince the end of February, and more accurately mid-March, the volatility on Natural Gas has all but disappeared.
This is a good thing if you're bullish, because it's both consolidation and indicates accumulation.
It's also a good thing from a sentiment/narrative perspective because everyone has all but forgotten trying to gamble on BOIL.
Moreover, it's strange for Natural Gas to trade so cheaply in light of the situation with the conflict between NATO and Vladimir Putin and how it impacts both China and Xi Jinping and Europe.
I've said in many of my previous natural gas calls that $10 wasn't the top. And if that supposition is true, the fact that we're trading at such an enormous discount for so long is really notable.
Just look how big the discount is on the monthly:
One of the core tenants of 2023's thus far price action being a likely bottom is that Natty has swept out the $2 mark twice, the last time in April.
Since, it's then made a series of higher lows and now looks certain to make higher highs.
Moreover, on the weekly we see any red bars are continually traded through to the upside by the MM.
All of this comes while the algorithm has been playing around the December of 2020 monthly pivot.
The fact that $2 has been protected so strictly and that the high of the year was set at only $3, which it touched for only a day, a Friday, to start March tells us that the target is more likely to be up than it is to be down.
It is very hard for me to tell you if Natty is going to do $3.2, $3.5, $4, or $4.5. It may just double top at $3 and then go back to $1.8.
What I can say is that getting over $4 ought to have a high degree of resistance. However, if the algs push it through, it's going to take off and take off in a hurry.
One thing that is true is that you really should not be bearish on energy.
I also believe that the Nasdaq in specific is about to correct so violently that it's going to set a new low.
We may be in a scenario right now where we see something like:
Equities correct
USD up
Energy up
Metals up
10Y yield up
VIX up
Instead of the usual everything down and everything up all at once shenanigans.
The world is running out of energy. Oil is not a bear market.
Worldwide and US production peaked in 2018 and hasn't come back.
A lot of the "oil" that is included in daily production numbers isn't actually crude oil but is "natural gas liquids" and other lesser substances.
In a climate where mankind is using more and more electricity and temperatures are getting hotter and hotter, there is no reason to believe that natural gas should stay this cheap.
How hot will July, August, and September be in North America?
Natural gas _is_ electricity. It's also plastics. It's also what the places that get winter use to fuel their furnaces to stay alive.
Are you really expecting $1.50?
XAUUSD(GOLD)-07/12/2023Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: Gold reached the levels of stop losses of sellers and on impulse the price broke through the level of 1938.915, as we expected. On this, the buying potential has not ended and the medium-term target is located at the resistance of 1981.680.
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GBPUSD-07/12/2023Preferred direction: Neutral
Comment: The long-awaited level of 1.30000 has been reached and now most likely we should expect a stop from the buyers. A downward correction is also in question. It takes some time to watch the price. The formation of a balance is now most likely.
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#GOLD Update In the previous week's update, I highlighted enough certainty to go long because of the ending diagonal (C) of in the chart below.
We spent the entire week creating the opening move, which I've labelled wave A or (1) below. There is no preferred structure at this moment, and the complexity of the scenarios should remain on the chart. However, I can somewhat discount the larger running triangle labelled in black circles ABCDE. Given that wave is a clear (W)(X)(Y), and wave is nearly 2x of , the running triangle is less likely but not ruled out.
$TNX broke downtrend, rates likely keep goingLong ago we mentioned that #FederalReserve had decision to make.
They either chose the Economy or the Markets.
They CANNOT do both.
It's obvious, plus they keep repeating, with rate hikes where their mindset is.
Media states that Wall St thinks that #interestrate will be cut.
BUT
Looking @ short term rates, they look primed to go higher.
#bonds
-------------
The 1Yr is moving very nicely.
BUT
The 2YR picked up a lot lately. It's closing in on the 1Yr.
🚨🚨🚨
The 10Yr #yield is cranking & broke downtrend. #TNX
How much higher can things go before they break?
We've also mentioned that extreme #currency devaluation has bullish consequences
(many countries are an example of this)
Dilemma
EDIT:
We're still forming higher highs so market correction likely not there. This tends to happen once the inverted yield curve fixes itself.
2Yr Peak during great financial crisis was 5.28
10Yr Peak was 4.32
#GOLD #silver CRYPTOCAP:BTC
XAUUSD(GOLD)-07/06/2023Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: Gold slowed down a little with uptrend impulse, unlike Silver. Although such a trend is natural in principle, that silver outperforms gold (especially in %). The previous scenario is in force and has already begun to be worked out. Approach to the level of 1938.915 will be more likely very soon, in addition, given the news background, we can expect an impulsive upward movement. In this case, this level will be stitched through and for buyers it will be necessary to fix it above the specified mark.
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EURUSD-07/05/2023Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: The EUR still retains the buying potential. Today, however, strong growth should not be expected. An excellent entry point is located at the level of 1.09000. You can consider placing a pending order on this idea and go long immediately after the price passes the level of 1.09000. Upside potential is still the same at 1.09623.
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USDJPY-07/04/2023Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: Today, the USDJPY currency pair has the greatest chance of turning down over the past 2–3 months. The potential and most confident short entry point is now located at the level of ~143.8. When closing below this level, the instrument is very likely to roll down to 142.204 and 141.327. However, it is unlikely that the instrument will fall like this right away, maybe the same re-test to ~143.8, after which the movement will resume towards the specified targets.
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The Markets Are Weird...Just when I thought SPX was bearish...
...the bulls pull me back in.
Not many of us in here made millions from trading. One of the reasons is that the markets are weird.
Just when we be lie ve that the bottom is in, another bottom appears.
Just when we be lie ve that more down is coming, no more down comes.
When you open TradingView, and look at the prices, don't fall for the trap. These are the prices the seller put up. Just like browsing the retail markets, you browse the trade markets.
Price action is what the seller wants you to buy into.
The standard, dollar-denominated SPX is shaping into a bear flag.
The not-dollar-denominated SPX is shaping into a bull flag.
This is basically SPX measured against the average non-US buyer.
Which one is right???
It is at these points when buyers/sellers get trapped. They expect one movement, and the opposite comes. The "I shorted the bottom" motto must not be misused, everyone can fall for the trap.
The Stock Market is about long-term strategies. What matters is the stance you keep. Your stance must not get shaken-up from the news.
Last year was the year the classical investment strategy failed.
And that occurred in a period when the US economy was not in a technical recession.
While we cannot perform meaningful measurements on this chart, the trend change cannot be ignored. From a period of the equity-bond pair being bulletproof, we are heading into a period when it is full of holes. Don't believe me? Listen to one smarter than me explaining it...
www.youtube.com
And the culprit of last year's pain was bonds.
I am comparing it with the META price action from last year.
I expect weakness in bonds for many years.
Weakness in Bonds can mean only one thing. Money outflowing from bonds and into alternative investments. Be lie ve it or not, in this environment equities may seem like a reasonable thought.
To confirm this, we must perform some relative analysis on charts.
The KST-Based MACD indicator I developed works beautifully when we want to analyze the performance of a trend.
It basically ignores up-down movement. It takes into consideration the relative strength gained-lost. It is a cousin of RSI, and is analyzed like Stochastic RSI / MACD would be.
This indicator helps us pinpoint trend strength shifts . A bearish signal could mean that a fast growth is beginning to slow down. A bullish signal could mean that a slow growth/drop might turn bullish/go faster. I will not go into much detail as to what is considered a bullish/bearish signal. An explanation might get too long for this idea. For now, take my word for it...
While the US economy (SPX * DXY) might not outright crash, weakness in SPX is apparent.
This chart suggests that the bull-flag that is shaping on the SPX * DXY chart is probably a blow-off-top behavior. This however does not mean that the top is in.
Price has just reached the mean.
From the above we realize that SPX behavior is nearly identical to the 1953 period.
More info about it in this idea below:
Not all is well for SPX however...
Relative weakness of SPX appears, when compared against other continents.
Curiously, a bullish relative performance can be seen when compared against Japan.
There are however many obstacles for SPX to jump through.
The Bitcoin Bubble was born to swallow the Equity Bubble.
Besides crypto, the arch-enemy of SPX are commodities. And the best performer of commodities may be oil.
From this chart we conclude that oil will beat anything SPX + Gold might throw at it.
Perhaps Buffett was right after all, when he called for investing into oil.
Finally, a couple of charts for these eternal Gold Bulls...
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
P.S. Be lie ve it or not, this is a serious idea. Many hate equity bulls, just like they hate gold bears. Some charts do suggest bullishness for equities. Either we trust the analysis or we dictate it.
XAUUSD-07/03/2023Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: Since writing the last metal idea (on Friday), buyers have been able to overcome the 1912 level, as we expected, and as we needed to fulfill the buy condition. Now, one of the best setups is located at the level of 1920, where one can place a pending buy order. The price area near this level will make nervous a large proportion of sellers, who will close their positions. Long potential is located at the level of 1938.915, that is very important in the medium term for buyers.
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$TNX looks interesting on the Weekly ChartThe consensus is LOWER #interestrates
(I mean, they have been around 3.2ish)
Every time the 10Yr #yield was in this same situation it FOLDED.
Easier to see on daily.
However, something looks lil different this time around.
Can't make it out on the daily.
Let's see the weekly chart.
Hmmm...
Not yet, but gaining momentum...
If the 10 Yr yield starts pumping this could be good for $DXY.
Likely mean the inverse for precious metals like #Silver & #Gold.
#stocks #crypto
XAUUSD-06/30/2023Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: A potential BUY-position can be considered for GOLD if the price closes above the level of 1912. This level has a local significance, since it was from it that buyers were forced to exit the market and the price failed by 1893. The target in case of a purchase is at the level of 1938.915.
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$TNX in range and a comparison of Yields around 2008#Yield is moving well today.
1Yr is bouncing back better than 2 and 10Yr.
$TNX is not bouncing as much but has not sold off as much as the others. The 10Yr is trading between 3.80 - 4.08.
Did we see the top in short term #yields a few days ago?
10Yr on the other hand did not break the most recent high. Interesting to say the least.
The last picture shows the highs of the 2 yr and 10 yr right before the crash of 2008.
Interesting that almost everything happened in the month of June. Even when it was 3 different years! Hmmm.
***
Now let's compare what yields did around the 2008 crash.
***
The 2yr yield peaked @ 5.28% and it did it much earlier. It was almost 2 years before the 10Yr yield did. The 2yr also formed a lower higher in 2007 (5.13%) & peaked in June 2008, much lower @ 3%, before the real crash happened.
The 10yr didn't peak until June 2008. way after short term rates peaked. We also see that the peak was around 4.3%.
Stocks peaked in Oct 07 and the lower high was May 2008.
***
We are seeing something similar today. However, IMO everything happens faster today. We're keeping a close eye on lower highs in short term yields and we could be seeing this now. Time will tell.
This data is just like other data. Just past info to help weather the current & future storms.
UKOIL (BRENT)-06/29/2023Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: Oil has been trading in the range of 72.36 - 77.39. The most pleasant entry points are certainly located at the extremes, however, the current price attracts those formed by accumulation. Accumulated selling can well push the price up to the level of 76.30.
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Stubborn MarketsThe markets simply refuse to give up. The birds are speaking to them, but nobody listens.
Gold, still living inside a massive bearish wedge pattern, is almost ready to print a death cross.
The 1M, 2M and 3M timeframes print a similar picture.
The 2M chart is beginning to give in. Volatility between MAs is keeping these still glued together, unable to figure out the next move.
Either the best Golden Cross prints or the worst Death is soon to come.
Markets are weird. I always found incredibly interesting the period before the .com bubble.
Equities had just printed a death cross. After the post-1988 prolonged weakness, all support seemed to have been lost. Instead, the markets boomed.
It is at these extremes when the good and bad stuff happens.
I am getting annoyed from all the birds speaking, many of them bullish on gold, others bullish on equities.
The Gold Bird
Everybody wants to keep this fella alive!
The SPX Bird
Everybody wants to kill this poor fella!
With both birds SCREAMING, we cannot reach conclusions.
Gold Bulls are buying into their ultimate doom.
SPX Bears are selling into one of the most powerful bull runs we have witnessed.
It is the duel between them that will clear the picture.
Honestly, it looks like a Gold Cross is about to shape for equities, not for Gold!
Gold may instead take the black death-ish color.
Again, Buffett may be right after all... Japan + Oil = love-4-many-years
US Yield Rates show significant signs of strength.
The end of the 2nd Big Tech bubble is right around the corner...
Bird might be Peter's word. Don't be like Peter.
Remember: Trend is the trader's word.