XAUUSD D1: TP BULLS 2000 USD V-shape recovery(SWING SL/TP)Why get subbed to me on Tradingview?
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XAUUSD D1: TP BULLS 2000 USD V-shape recovery(SWING SL/TP)
IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own
due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage.
Tagged as LONG as I expect GAINS until 1950/2000 USD
🔸 Summary and potential trade setup
::: XAUUSD 1days/candle chart review
::: updated/revised outlook
::: strong bull run / pump in progress
::: V-shape recovery in progress
::: BULLS maintain strategic advantage
::: all shallow dips get bought up
::: off the triple bottom formation
::: 1950 USD / 2 000 USD - major/heavy S/R
::: expecting uptrend to resume after pullback
::: no pullbacks in sight currently
::: BULLS should focus on buying dips
::: final TP - BULLS will hit 2 000 USD
::: strong bullish impulse in progress so bulls
::: BULLS maintain control after recent PUMP
::: short-term range bounce price action / SLOW
::: then expecting REVERSAL get ready to BUY LOW
::: LOW risk strategy BULLS: BUY LOW near market price
::: TP bulls is TP1 1950 USD TP2 is 2 000 USD
::: BEST/recommended strategy: see above MARKET BUY
::: slow grind until we hit major resistance
::: SWING trade setup do not expect
::: fast/miracle overnights gains here
::: good luck traders
🔸 Supply/Demand Zones
::: 1945 USD fresh demand zone
::: 2000 USD fresh supply zone
🔸 Other noteworthy technicals/fundies
::: TD9 /Combo update: N/A
::: Sentiment short-term: range/bulls
::: Sentiment mid-term: BULLS/REVERSAL/2000USD
RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
GOLD-SILVER
Gold is about to breakout above $2k - Here we goThe Fed and US economic data will likely prompt s big move in Gold/Silver over the next 36+ months.
My read on the data is that we are starting a price cycle that is similar to 2002~2005 again.
Early bullish trending throughout 2002~05 prompted a massive 500% rally in Gold - reaching a peak in 2011.
If that happens again from the $1700 support level, we may see Gold reach levels above $11,000 by 2027~28.
This is NOT the same market condition as 2019~2022.
Follow my research
BTC will get "squeezed" price action soonZoom in on current $BTC state
See our profile
#BTC volume DYING out
Makes sense with #Fed talking & US #Dollar "basing"
#Bitcoin has also had a nice run
Notice swings are getting LARGER
Ultimately, going 2b squeezed one direction or another
Keep eye on RSI & Volume
$DXY first signs of possible turnaroundFirst signs of TURNAROUND for #DXY
"Coincidentally" $DXY is trying to find foundation while #BTC #GOLD #SILVER #ETH are @ RESISTANCE levels
US #Dollar trying to base here
Historically this area has NOT served as strong support
but doesn't mean it wont now
#currencies
What an incredible rally in GOLD from Support - what's next?This incredible rally in Gold won't really end until prices reach levels above $2250. My target is closer to $2400 - but we'll see how things play out.
Overall, Gold moves in $350 price phases. From recent lows, the top of that $350 price phase is near $1985.
I would suspect a moderate pause/pullback after reaching the $1985 level. The low of that pause/pullback will prompt another $350 upward price phase.
If we assume the low of the pullback will be near $1900, then the upper target of the next upward price phase will be $2250+.
Eventually, as Gold shifts into a parabolic phase, those $350 price phases will increase..
A. $481
B. $525
C. $566
D. $700
As the speculative phase in precious metals continues, we'll see varying expansion/contraction phases until the peak is reached after 2027~28.
Hang tight, this is just getting started.
Follow my research.
IMO likely Bitcoin stepsIMO steps for #bitcoin over next few weeks
$BTC likely rally more, looks like breakaway gap
Break downtrend
Hit 24k, pink line, maybe even trade bit above
Pullback, maybe even fill gap @ 20k
*HERE'S IMPORTANT PART if Bottom*
#Bitcoin VOLUME from here on in, heavier or light?
US Dollar may have a lot to do with this
$BTC EARLY Bottoming Inverse Head & Shoulder PatternCopy paste, pls see profile
1
Okay, few hours ago noticed $BTC pattern
Don't want to mess with the #futures #BTC chart so will use the #Bitcoin #Index
Weekly, it's a bit tough to see
Keep in mind that this can take few months to resolve
See it?
Hint: BOTTOM forming pattern
#crypto
-
2/2
VERY EARLY, #BTC forming Inverse Head & Shoulder
Some Sells came in BUT Buys still #hodl
Last chart is $BTC #Futures
Would be nice 2c breakaway gap end the downtrend but Inverse H&S MUCH better bottom pattern
#crypto
$DXY @ IMPORTANT LEVEL!!! Historical dataCopy paste, please see profile
1/2
IMPORTANT $DXY
As this affects:
#stocks #gold #silver #btc #ETH #crypto
Been meaning to post on US #Dollar, haven't had chance
4 of last 5 days have been battle, cross formation
Makes sense since @ SUPPORT, blue line
Positive Divergence on RSI
$GLD $SLV $BTC $ETH
-
2/2
HISTORICALLY, weekly basis:
US #Dollar has HARD time trading ABOVE blue line = Resistance
When blue line is SUPPORT, more often than not, it doesn't hold, very weird
Monthly $DXY also shows this
Last 2 charts show current
#GOLD #SILVER #BTC #ETH #DXY #Commodities
Moderating inflation could further reinforce gold and silverLet’s begin with a recap. In 2022, precious metals were down 4.4% when the S&P500 Index was down 19.4%. That is an outperformance of 13.8% for precious metals against equities. Still, many firm believers of gold were, at times, questioned why gold was not scaling new highs in a year when inflation was doing exactly that.
As Nitesh Shah outlines in his model, gold is influenced by four variables. These are:
1. Changes in the US dollar basket (-ve relationship)
2. Consumer price index (CPI) inflation (+ve relationship)
3. Changes in nominal yields on 10-year US Treasuries (-ve relationship)
4. Investor sentiment measured by speculative positioning in futures (+ve relationship)
Although inflation was supportive of gold last year, the aggression with which central banks acted to tighten monetary policy strengthened the US dollar and lifted Treasury yields creating headwinds for precious metals. As a result, investor sentiment was also weak (see figures 01 and 02).
A shift in sentiment
Although the Federal Reserve (Fed) has not yet signalled a dovish pivot, markets are beginning to expect this to happen at some point this year. With the US consumer price index (CPI) inflation falling for its sixth straight month in December and moderating to 6.5% vs 7.1% in November , this market consensus might be reinforced. Even if the Fed remains on its tightening path in the first half of this year, the pace of rate increases could slow down. If inflation figures continue to decline steadily and growth data has not become alarmingly worrying, the central bank may hold its rates at a terminal rate during the second half.
Of course, the exact trajectory of these dynamics cannot be predicted. Still, however, market consensus is at least forecasting reduced hawkishness compared to last year. As a result, investor sentiment in gold has been on the rise since November. If Treasury yields and dollar continue to pull back, inflation moderates gradually, and economic data slowly deteriorates, sentiment towards gold as a safe-haven asset could continue to improve.
The silver lining
Silver often exhibits a leveraged relationship with gold. We experienced this in the twelve months after the March 2020 Covid crash in markets when silver meaningfully outperformed gold while both metals rallied. In 2022, things went in the other direction. As gold’s sentiment deteriorated, investor sentiment towards silver fell even further.
And once again, gold’s recovery is enabling silver to bounce back even more strongly. Silver is, of course, affected by the dynamics of industrial metals as well given more than half of its demand comes from industrial applications. This was also a factor for its lacklustre performance last year as industrial metals were pricing in a slowdown in China and recessionary fears across major economies more widely.
If in 2023, China’s lockdowns are lifted for good and the economic engine starts firing again, fuelled by accommodative monetary policy, this could be the catalyst for the recovery of industrial metals. It could also spur silver’s rally further.
The risk to the view
If the Fed takes markets by surprise and continues to tighten into the second half of this year, our base case could be challenged, and gold and silver may face newfound resistance. If the Fed signals such intentions early this year, say, in response to inflation numbers as they become available, these challenges could present themselves sooner.
For now, it appears, that inflation is moderating steadily encouraging the markets to believe that so will Fed’s hawkishness.
Longest Wyckoff Distribution Ever.The history of the new world, reduced to its fundamentals. A simple channel and a few important events, define a Wyckoff Distribution.
This chart is the DNA of the new world. The end of phase four would be the much-advertised-great-reset. The end of the past 120 years, and a beginning of a new era, if it is for the best or for the worst.
I am not very hopeful for the future, but there is hope in the real things. Stay real.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
PS. 120=7,77*7,77*2
120 is a super-cycle. It is the cycle of the cycle of 7.7 years
An alternate chart.
DJI/GOLD to drop longterm?It may not be that simple...
Now that inflation is in the headlines, I decided to "follow the herd" and post an idea regarding it.
To compare the current financial market with the market 100 years ago, one may analyze the pairs DJI/CURRCIR, or DJI/ GOLD .
From the chart is trivial to realize that DJI/ GOLD historically moves inside the blue channel.
Historically the following occurred in this specific order.
A. The ratio increases from the bottom of the channel (without a significant change of course) to the top of the channel.
B. RSI maximizes and then breaks it's increasing trendline.
C. Near the RSI trendline break , price breaks it's trendline.
D. Then a retest of the price trendline occurs. Only then the drop is significant.
E. Price reaches the bottom of the channel.
F. After a while, the middle of the channel is tested with a significant reaction to the downside. (In 1976 it caused the ratio to stop growing and the price went below the channel)
G. The price now increases from the bottom of the channel, and the cycle repeats...
Right now we are are in a make-or-break moment.
We haven't reached the top of the channel and already the RSI trendline is violated to the downside and RSI indecisively fluctuates a little above the 50 mark. Shortly after the attempt passing the channel axis, a rejection occured. The price trendline is violated to the downside. It seems a second trendline exists now and looks intact.
On the chart there are 3 very distinct cycles, which peaked in 1929, 1966 and 1999. The cycle lasts about 35 years. I find it very interesting that it is that consistent.
Maybe the 35 year cycle is not that consistent and we are in an abrupt stop. And in the years following having DJI/ GOLD drop significantly. And it makes sense for a drop in stocks and gold exploding. We are talking about food shortages, water shortages and war. This is not a recipe for success for stocks. Most companies need a calm climate to grow.
Or maybe in the end, even though we talk about inflation , money losing it's value and the economy being in the brink of collapse, we will grow until 2030 and then we collapse. After all, recessions happen when noone expects them to. We are also above the 1M, 3M Ichimoku clouds.
Who knows what will happen? I certainly don't know what will happen. My gut feeling is "way down we go". It may be a controlled demolition of the stock market, but I don't think we have much room to grow for now in absolute terms.
$DXY going to level we called some time ago$DXY US #Dollar was sleep walking!🤣
Saw the move coming, didn't trade it, but didn't expect it to fall so fast!
Looks like it'll reach level we expected, PURPLE LINE
#Gold still going bit higher
Silver having hard time breaking resistance area
$BTC keeps slowly chugging along
#currency #currencies
Gold May Reach New All-Time Highs Early In Q3:2023My research suggests Gold may continue to rally above $2079 in early July 2023.
I believe the current US/Global market crisis event is very unique - something many people fail to understand.
Many professional analysts have gotten married to the 2008 market collapse scenario. I'm watching dozens of posts on social media and other sites where everyone is uber short.
I don't understand why it seems so many people fail to understand the real context of the global markets right now.
In my opinion, this is 2003-05 all over again - mixed with a bit of 1993~1997.
Few people really understand what I'm talking about. Let's see if you can tell me what you see in the markets right now.
The biggest opportunity of your life is about to unfold.
Get ready for a big WAVE-5 Rally.