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GOLD-SILVER

The unwinding of the global excesses will be epic (not here yet)I was just looking at some data and put this chart together. Pay attention to how the dynamics of USD assets have changed over the past 3+ years - and the excesses built into the global economy since the 2008-09 GFC. As much as I want the global to navigate a soft-landing process, I see the excesses of the past 8+ years unwinding in a somewhat extended format through 2025 or beyond. Because of this expectation, I believe the US/Global markets may enter a period of extreme consolidation over the next 4+ years before attempting to shift back into a longer-term bullish price trend. This means we need to stay focused on assets that provide safety and security while attempting to navigate a broad global capital unwinding process. Bitcoin and other speculative assets may see massive revaluation events - same with Technology and Innovation sectors. Traders will get chopped up unless you are able to target quick profits and/or ride our shifting capital trends in various global assets. Passive investing may seem like the safe play - but I believe CASH and HEDGING will outperform almost everything else over the next 3+ years. Follow my research and learn how to spot these bigger cycle trends. The peak in the US markets is not here yet - but when it happens, be prepared for extreme market volatility.
ECONOMICS:USIRYYLong
by BradMatheny
$DXY bearish scenario 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management !! This chart analysis is for reference purposes only !! Recap: Green trendline has the potential to become a new resistance that could lead $DXY to retest the support depicted in red. Support has been holding up for the past six months...but will June be the month that breaks the camels back? Bullish scenario for the US dollar $DXY is pretty self-explanatory, but my team wanted to share with you guys a bearish scenario that could also play out. We aren't fortune-tellers so don't expect a bearish scenario to play out exactly how we've depicted it, but this chart should serve as a useful reference tool throughout June if we do see further correction on $DXY. If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
TVC:DXYShort
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
BTC BITCOIN USD : MASSIVE BULL FLAG, MEASURED MOVE TARGET $200KBTC BITCOIN is in a major bull flag on the macro. This is the bottom and we are going to see a serious move to the upside in a short period of time. Dont listen to everyone saying its going to tank, its all crap. Bitcoin always goes against the crowd and if youve been in this space long enough then you should know that. When everyone is bearish Bitcoin ALWAYS does the opposite, and the same for when everyone is bullish Bitcoin takes a shlt. This bullflag is massive and is going to propel BTC to some serious new all time highs. I cant wait to see the faces of everyone calling for a further drop lol its priceless watching backtrack. Also Bull Flag patterns are one of the most reliable patterns in trading. This is not financial advice this is just my opinion and what I am doing. If you like this content then leave me a like and follow for more updates and analysis. Thank you
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Bitgolder
2
PIVX USD : PIVX MULTI YEAR BULL FLAG BREAKOUT TARGET $100PIVX has been around for a while and I've always liked PIVX. I believe if this pattern plays out then we will see something extraordinary out of PIVX and maybe all of the reputable and stable/secure staking coins. The USA government is going after Proof Of Work mining because of the energy it requires to run and the environmental pollution it creates, its within the executive order that was signed in the Crypto Bill. I believe also that is why Ethereum switched over to Proof Of Stake early is because they knew this was coming and they got ahead of the game, which in turn will probably cause a flippening with Bitcoin putting Ethereum in the number one spot. At least until Bitcoin switches over or finds a new innovative way. I dont know exactly what is coming but something is in the works and i think we will see a mega rally in the staking coins in the not too distant future. PIVX has been playing out a massive bull flag for a few years now and it is reaching what I believe to be its end and PIVX will blast through the upper resistance line and making a run up to about $100 dollars each, which would be a measured move by the size of the flagpole. Its easily possible, especially with a team that has been busting their ass for a while. If you find this content useful then please leave a like and follow me for more updates. This is not trading or financial advice, this is just my opinion and what I am doing! Thank you for looking!
PLong
by Bitgolder
2
IBM USD NYSE: NEW ALL TIME HIGHS COMING, ASCENDING CHANNEL ??IBM has been in an ascending channel formation for a while now. We've had two touches and I believe there is one more then a correction to the bottom support line before the decision of whether this channel will break to the upside or whether we will break to the downside. Thats years away and we can revisit that then but for now it looks like IBM is about to make a nice move to the upside to new all time highs in the $300 dollar range. The MACD is curled and primed and the BBWP shows volatility is expanding while the RSI is kinda neutral but headed upwards. I think a nice move in the works, and it has probably already started. This is not financial or trading advice, this is just my opinion and what I am doing. Leave a comment below and follow me for more! Thank you and good luck!
NYSE:IBMLong
by Bitgolder
$XAUUSD: Huge reward to risk bottom signal...$I'm long PMs as of today, Silver and Gold acting strong after a weekly down trend expired recently. As per my long term yearly chart data, both $XAUUSD and $XAGUSD show long term uptrend signals active and are attractive to rejoin that potential scenario being oversold into support, while short term charts progressively turn bullish from daily upwards. Weekly had a signal which will expire next week and implies a potential mean reversion move towards $1927+ within the span of 6 weeks or less. The daily timeframe turned bullish today, reversing the recent weakness seen since March 8th when metals peaked. Select gold and silver mining stocks look very appealing with low valuations once again ($GFI, $SBSW, $PAAS, $AU, as well as $SCCO and $FCX to name a few). Decent opportunity to go long with low risk vs potential upside in the case of a stagflationary scenario or a scenario where real rates stop going up or come down over time. which seems likely given demographics and fundamentals. For instance, the adoption of renewable energy and electric vehicles to resolve climate change and potentially address the energy crisis at hand could serve as a tailwind for precious and base metals and mining stocks in general. Long term investments can be done with funds that we can afford to lose or see cut in half to hold for long as necessary to let this trend play out, the trend in $XAUUSD is also a great short term trade, from where we can hold long exposure with big size, while risking small given the tight stop that is possible here at the signal invalidation. Long term positions are better done with physical gold and silver ETFs and/or mining stocks to buy metals in the ground, rather than dealing with futures or CFDs and their carry. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
1
Vox Royalty to C$4.50Vox Royalty (TSX-V:VOX) Corp has told investors it expects to report royalty revenues of between C$10 million and C$12 million in 2022—more than double what it realized in 2021—as it also revealed it has acquired a producing royalty on a Western Australian iron ore mine. The royalty, purchased from a private vendor, is a 1.25%-1.50% sliding scale gross revenue royalty (GRR) on the Wonmunna mine operated by major Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX:MIN). Vox is paying US$4.75 million in cash, US$12.15 million in Vox shares, and issuing 3.6 million share purchase warrants with an exercise price of C$4.50. "The Wonmunna royalty acquisition further expands the revenue and growth profile of Vox and is accretive on all key metrics," said Kyle Floyd, CEO of Vox in a statement. "The opportunity to add significant, immediate, incremental revenue through a non-brokered accretive transaction with a private seller generates significant value for Vox shareholders for years to come. ©Proactive Investors The line that I find most interesting is 'warrants with an exercise price of C$4.50', as the current price action is hovering above C$3.00. For the vendor of the Royalty to find this deal acceptable they must have looked at Vox Royalty Corp and seen what others clearly can not see. And that is a 50% increase in value at the minimum. Warrants and Call Options Similarities The basic attributes of a warrant and call are the same: • Strike price or exercise price – The guaranteed price at which the warrant or option buyer has the right to buy the underlying asset from the seller (technically, the writer of the call). “Exercise price” is the preferred term with reference to warrants. • Maturity or expiration date – The finite time period during which the warrant or option can be exercised. • Option price or premium – The price at which the warrant or option trades in the market. ©Investopedia For a strike price of C$4.50 to work, the share price needs to be above C$4.50 or otherwise the warrants have little to no value.
V
by TH_Analysis
Daily Futures Volatility Forecast 27 May 22 Gold, Silver, OilGOLD XAU USD 27 May 2022 For today, the current expected volatility is going to be below 1.5% with a chance of probability of 88% This is going to be translated in a movement of +- 27.6 from opening candle Taking into account the close candle price which was around 1850 we can consider our daily channel the next TOP 1878 BOT 1823 For today we have no big fundamental news which can affect the price of the asset. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SILVER XAG USD 27 May 2022 For today, the current expected volatility is going to be below 2.78% with a chance of probability of 88% This is going to be translated in a movement of +- 0.62 from opening candle Taking into account the close candle price which was around 21.98 we can consider our daily channel the next TOP 22.6 BOT 21.37 For today we have no big fundamental news which can affect the price of the asset. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ US OIL 27 May 2022 For today, the current expected volatility is going to be below 4.6% with a chance of probability of 88% This is going to be translated in a movement of +- 5.25 from opening candle Taking into account the close candle price which was around 114 we can consider our daily channel the next TOP 119 BOT 109 For today we have no big fundamental news which can affect the price of the asset. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOIL
by exlux
Daily Futures Volatility Forecast 26 May 22 Gold, Silver, OilGOLD/ XAU USD26 May 2022 The current volatility is expected with close to 87.5% chance to be below 1.5% In this case, our channel for today is going to be TOP 1880 BOT 1825 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SILVER XAG USD26 May 2022 The current volatility is expected with close to 87.5% chance to be below 2.8% In this case, our channel for today is going to be TOP 22.50 BOT 21.34 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US OIL USD26 May 2022 The current volatility is expected with close to 87.5% chance to be below 4.65% In this case, our channel for today is going to be TOP 115.8 BOT 105.5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOIL
by exlux
Daily Futures Volatility Forecast 23 May 22 Gold, Silver, OilGOLD 23 May 2022 For today, based on the last 30 days, the current implied volatility is around 1.06% movement. So with a more than 78% chance we can estimate that the current daily channel made with 1845 open candle value, is going to be: TOP 1845 + 20 -> aprox 1865 BOT 1845 - 20 -> aprox 1825 At the same time, if we want to increase our probability, we can go for a IV of 1.55% With this we can achieve over the last 5000+ daily candles, a 90% probability. So in this case , our daily channel is going to be compressed within TOP 1845 + 28 -> aprox 1873 BOT 1845 - 28 -> aprox 1817 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SILVER 23 May 2022 For today, based on the last 30 days, the current implied volatility is around 1.86% movement. So with a more than 78% chance we can estimate that the current daily channel made with 21.73 open candle value, is going to be: TOP 21.73 + 0.4 -> aprox 22.13 BOT 21.73 - 0.4 -> aprox 21.32 At the same time, if we want to increase our probability, we can go for a IV of 2.92% With this we can achieve over the last 5000+ daily candles, a 90% probability. So in this case , our daily channel is going to be compressed within TOP 21.73 + 0.64 -> aprox 22.36 BOT 21.73 - 0.64 -> aprox 21.09 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crude Oil 23 May 2022 For today, based on the last 30 days, the current implied volatility is around 3.19% movement. So with a more than 78% chance we can estimate that the current daily channel made with 110.5 open candle value, is going to be: TOP 110.5 + 3.55 -> aprox 114 BOT 110.5 - 3.55 -> aprox 107 At the same time, if we want to increase our probability, we can go for a IV of 5.1% With this we can achieve over the last 5000+ daily candles, a 90% probability. So in this case , our daily channel is going to be compressed within TOP 110.5 + 5.66 -> aprox 116 BOT 110.5 - 5.66 -> aprox 105 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NYMEX:CL1!
by exlux
Weekly Volatility Forecast 23-29 May 2022 Gold & SilverGOLD 23-29 May 2022 We can based on the last month analysis, that the current volatility is around 3.66% This is translated into 68$ from the current point. So lets imagine that GOLD is going open Monday candle around 1845 With that in mind, with close to 86% probability of pointing correctly the top and bottom places we are going to have: TOP 1845 + 68 -> aprox 1913 BOT 1845 - 68 -> aprox 1777 If we want at the same time to narrow a bit this channel, we can go for close to 76% probability. In this case the volatility would be around 2.75% => 50$ TOP 1845 + 50 -> aprox 1895 BOT 1845 - 50 -> aprox 1795 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SILVER 23-29 May 2022 We can based on the last month analysis, that the current volatility is around 6.93% This is translated into 1.5$ from the current point. So lets imagine that SILVER is going open Monday candle around 21.7 With that in mind, with close to 86% probability of pointing correctly the top and bottom places we are going to have: TOP 21.7 + 1.5 -> aprox 23.2 BOT 21.7 - 1.5 -> aprox 20.2 If we want at the same time to narrow a bit this channel, we can go for close to 76% probability. In this case the volatility would be around 5.2% => 1.1$ TOP 21.7 + 1.1 -> aprox 22.8 BOT 21.7 - 1.1 -> aprox 20.6 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SILVER
by exlux
Volatility 19 May 22 Metal Commodities Copper, Gold, SilverHG/ Cooper Futures 19 May 2022 Based on the HV measures from the last 5630 candles our expected volatility for today is around 1.45% However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 1.82% This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 0.077 With this information our top and bottom , with close to 82% probability for today are going to be TOP 4.231 BOT 4.08 GOLD/ GC Futures 19 May 2022 Based on the HV measures from the last 5630 candles our expected volatility for today is around 0.88% However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 1.1% This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 19.86 With this information our top and bottom , with close to 84% probability for today are going to be TOP 1835 BOT 1795 SILVER /SL Futures 19 May 2022 Based on the HV measures from the last 5630 candles our expected volatility for today is around 1.68% However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 2.1% This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 0.45 With this information our top and bottom , with close to 84% probability for today are going to be TOP 21.88 BOT 20.98
COMEX:SI1!
by exlux
XAUUSD LONG TO 2140Market structure is offering us a beautiful opportunity to long the Gold markets towards 2140, a new all time high! After Wave 3 hit a peak of 2060, we saw a strong and deep pullback towards 1790 which would be considered Wave 4. We are now ready for the next bullish leg up towards 2140-2160. I will be catching this move on behalf of myself and my Account Management investors. Drop a like if you agree or let me know what you think. Feel free to drop a follow if you want to keep up with all the latest analysis!
SAXO:XAUUSDLong
by BA_Investments
1
Silver and Gold have outperformed the SPY - and it will continueThis chart shows how Silver and Gold continue to outperform the SPY in 2022. I expect this trend to continue as I expect both Silver and Gold to recover to new All-Time Highs very quickly. This deep selling in the US and global markets is an indication that a contagion event may be building. I strongly suggest China/Asia may be the source of this event (including Emerging Markets). Debt levels in these areas are excessive and the unwinding of the speculative consumer cycle could last 15+ years (based on my expectations). This puts Gold and Silver on a target to rally well into 2031-32 - possibly longer. Are you following my research yet?
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by BradMatheny
⭐️GOLD: forecast for May 16-May 20➡️ Precious metals are under strong pressure from sellers, at the moment, the bearish trend in the market continues to strength in Gold. Thus, the US dollar will continue to be the focus of market participants in terms of risk aversion. It is assumed that this bearish trend will persist for some time, after which it will begin to recover. Growth under 3000 and 4000 looms very, very unlikely. This scenario is unlikely, and transnational companies will not be interested in such prices. The products and services of these organizations will simply have a gigantic price tag that no one can afford. At the moment, we can consider a long from the level of 1780. The target of growth is the level of 1850. So far, it is very risky to set goals higher, since the liquidation of longs will continue with a high degree of probability. ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ 👍 Thanks for your comments and likes 👍 👇🔥 LINKS TO PREVIOUS IDEAS AND FORECASTS 🔥👇
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by TradePlus-Fx
3
Gold - Bullish circle With the attack on the Ukarine, gold prices hit the old peak from Corona August. After the last interest rate hike was announced, there was a series of consolidations on the commodity markets. Including the gold and silver prices. Unlike the gold prices, the silver prices have hit an important support line, which I will also provide an update on. Nonetheless, gold prices have taken an interesting chart-technical shape over the years. The mix of geopolitical and fiscal events has caused gold prices to slowly but surely adopt a bullish formation. We have impulses from several areas: - rising inflation - geopolitical problems - higher US debt (another topic in the next silver article) - Weakening of the crypto market and with it a restructuring of the liquidity inflows Gold as a safe haven investment will definitely be an interesting topic. Also because this is considered a good headger for economic inflation. How do you feel about gold? Do you own physical ? Do you think gold prices will dominate in the long run? Are we then talking about worse economic data in the future? If I forgot something or you want to add something, write your opinion in the comments.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Heinisch_2108
1
Copper Falls - An OpportunityIn May 2021, the nearby COMEX copper futures contract reached a record $4.8985 per pound. After a correction to just below the $4 level in August 2021, the red nonferrous metal made higher lows and higher highs, leading to another all-time peak at $5.01 per pound in early March 2022. Range trading gives way to a downside break Goldman Sachs believes higher highs are on the horizon Copper is a green metal with the demand outstripping supplies It will take a decade to bring new production online Buying copper scale-down on the dip could be the optimal approach The new record high on March 7 led to a period of consolidation where copper traded between $4.60 and $4.60 per pound. On April 25, the leader of the nonferrous metals fell below the bottom end of its trading range to the $4.40 level. The decline in copper could be the perfect opportunity to load up on the metal that Goldman Sachs calls “the new crude oil” because of its requirements for green energy technology. Range trading gives way to a downside break On May 7, the continuous COMEX copper futures reached a new all-time high at over $5 per pound. The chart highlights the rally that took COMEX copper futures above the May 2021 $4.8985 peak to $5.01 per pound in early March. Copper rallied on the back of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the highest inflation readings in over four decades. The chart illustrates July copper futures traded in a range from $4.4710 to $4.7660 per pound from mid-March through April 22. On April 25, the price dropped below the bottom of the range on the back of the prospects for higher US interest rates and the rising value of the US dollar against other world reserve currencies. Higher rates increase the cost of carrying raw material inventories, and a strong dollar tends to be bearish for commodity prices as they rise in other currency terms. However, 2022 is anything but an ordinary year as inflation will keep real interest rates in negative territory, and all currencies, including the US dollar, are losing purchasing power. July copper futures traded to the most recent low on May 2 at $4.2040 per pound, the lowest price in 2022, and since December 15, 2021, when it found a bottom at $4.1105. The short-term technical trend is bearish, but the longer-term path of least resistance remains bullish. Moreover, supply and demand fundamentals tell us that the current dip in the nonferrous metal is a buying opportunity. Goldman Sachs believes higher highs are on the horizon In 2021, as copper was on its way to the May $4.8985 high, Goldman Sachs’ analysts called copper the “new oil” because of its role in green energy technology. Electric vehicles, wind turbines, and other alternative energy initiatives require ever-increasing copper supplies. Goldman pointed out that decarbonization does not occur without copper. The leading financial firm expects copper prices to rise to $15,000 per ton by 2025. At that level, COMEX futures will eclipse $6.80 per pound, nearly 60% above last week’s closing level at $4.2670. Other analysts expect even higher copper prices. Meanwhile, markets tend to move to prices on the up and downside that defy logic and reasonable and rational analysis. It is impossible to identify tops for bottoms in significant bull and bear market periods. The latest example was crude oil, which fell to below negative $40 per barrel in April 2020. No analyst saw that price coming. Copper is a green metal with the demand outstripping supplies Copper demand is set to rise over the coming years, but supplies to meet requirements will be a challenge for at least three reasons: Addressing climate change - ironically, copper demand will rise because of green initiatives, but net-zero carbon emission pledges by mining companies will weigh on production. Copper production is energy-intensive, requiring hydrocarbons. Rising production costs - Inflationary pressures have caused labor, financing, energy, equipment, and all mining input costs to rise, putting upward pressure on prices and downward pressure on output. Supply chain and political issues - Global supply chain bottlenecks continue to cause problems in transporting all commodities from production sites to consumers. Moreover, the geopolitical landscape is creating price distortions. The war in Ukraine, sanctions on Russia, Russian retaliation, and the “no-limits” support between China and Russia create an ideological bifurcation with the US and Europe. China is the world’s dominant copper consumer. The tensions distort all raw material prices, and copper is no exception. The prospects for a growing deficit in the copper market are high in 2022. The five-year trend in LME copper warehouse inventories has made lower highs and lower lows, indicating that robust demand is outpacing supplies. It will take a decade to bring new production online The cure for high prices in commodities is always the high price level as producers step up output to take advantage and earn more profits. In copper, it takes eight to ten years to bring a new mine into production, meaning the high prices in 2022 will only yield new and higher output in 2030. Moreover, the leading mining companies are scouring the world for new proven and probable reserves. BHP, a leading mining company, is even exploring the potential for a copper project in the challenging political climate of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. BHP calls the area a “tougher jurisdiction” because of the DRC’s long history of corruption and political instability. The bottom line is production will struggle to keep up with copper’s growing demand. Buying copper scale-down on the dip could be the optimal approach- A similar pattern to the May through August price behavior The latest price action in the copper futures market looks very similar to the move from the May 2021 high to the August 2021 bottom. The chart shows the decline from $4.8985 in May 2021 to a low of $3.98 in August 2021, an 18.8% correction in five months. Copper futures only traded below the $4 level for one day in August 2021. The most recent correction took the red metal from $5.01 to $4.1900 per pound or 16.4%. If copper holds above the $3.98 level, it will make another in a long series of higher lows since the March 2020 bottom at just over $2 per pound. I favor buying copper on a scale-down basis as supply and demand fundamentals and the long-term technical trend remain bullish. The short-term trend is bearish, but that could be an opportunity for those looking to accumulate the nonferrous metal that is a critical component in climate change initiatives. I expect higher highs in copper over the coming years. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by Andy_Hecht