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GOLD-SILVER

THREAD #2 : Commodities Update ‼️How it works ? Ask me in comment my chart analysis of the asset you want if it didn't have already done under. If I find something intersting to say and show, I will update the idea with it. A comment of each asset expose will be post under, come react about it or debate. Before to start I want to remind that we are in a period of conflict and news can emerge at any moment with strong effect and reaction on market. So invest carefully on this hard times and reduce your loss exposition on market when you can. Don't forget to take profit too. "Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions" As I've already done ideas on copper last months, let's start with it. COPPER ✅ First of all, if you follow my ideas you can see it's the same chart than the 29th of December when I posted it and the 20th of January for the trade. It is attached under and I invit you to see it because it will be the continuation of these analysis. So we are always in the Wyckoff Accumulation which have been developped, pullback on creek is done, and SOS too. Unfortunetly SOS failed so for me it's an end of the pattern. By consequence major part of my position have been closed and I will explain next why I keep a little which I not do usually. Why SOS is a fail ? Simply because we have selling volume, on the resistance area, on a primary resistance (yellow line) and because we have also selling pressure in it. The work have been done for the pattern, we took profit but can't project anymore in a term of "Wyckoff accumulation" of a bull continuation. So what to expect now from it ? The standard expectation after a failed SOS is to go back on the support area, usely rapidly and strongly, and invert the pattern in a way that we will now test the buying strenght on support. So we can expect a retest of support with an SOS to see, if it succeed, a bear continuation. That my scenario (a), and technically the most probable for me. BUT we have to live with our time and with the macroeconomic dynamic that we deal with. I will not hide that if the conflict between Russia-Ukraine continu and maybe gets worse, this will be a boost for every metals assets. That why I closed only 80% of my position, I can't advise to take long position anymore but it's could be wise to take profit and keep a part of your position if you are already in it. We can handle the technics evolutions but we can't handle the macroeconomic evolutions. If it this scenario (b) happen, we will see the construction of an LPS around $4.60 before to break up to the target around $5.70 in a first time. Take care of volatility, it will swing. GOLD ✅ Like for the copper, the chart don't have change since the commodities update of the 20th of January. We are coming to the end of the bull scenario. I invit to take profits on the conjoncture of the resistance area and the (2c) resistance. There is no interest to sell a refuge asset like gold, even more in this time of conflict. So if there is selling signals take it like an opportunity to buy it lower. Especially here, we will wait for buying signals on the (1b) or (1a) support and the best case would be the support area of $1,700 - $1,675 but far from now. For peoples already exposed on it, if it continu is bull movement and breakout the resistance area, we will be in price discovery so it's always hard to find targets in it because of volatility, but I don't expect it to go higher than $2,500 - $2,600 where we will probably find a big selling pressure. SILVER ✅ Like targeted in the last commodities update we are now on resistances of the downward channel. I don't expect a breakout of (1b) and the resistance area, so for me we will see the construction of a range between them around $27 and $29. The biggest probability for me is a bull outcome of the range to target the (1c) resistance (scenario A) and probably more after. If we reject the resistance strongly after lateralization I expect price to go deeply retest the (1a) support around $20 (scenario B). And finally if we see a reject of (2a) / (1b) soon, we could expect a short consolidation to (2b) before to go back again to the resistance area (scenario C). Like every metals, It would be dumb to expose yourself on the bear side in a period of conflict. More wise to wait consolidation and signals around the orange circles areas. PALLADIUM ✅ Palladium is another successfull prediction we had in the last commodities update. In term of evolution now it is very close from the copper analysis because we made an SOS which has also failed. So technically, the biggest probability is to see it go down on the (2b) line in a first time (scenario A) maybe more with (1a) before to retest the resistance (1b). If the macroeconomic dynamic bring it higher we could see an interesting area to enter on a buying signal on the pullback on (1b) (scenario B). Else we could go straight to (1c) around $4,500 - $4,600 before to see a strong selling pressure on price discovery. PLATINUM ✅ Platinum is also targeting the prediction of the last update. In term of perspective now it's more blurry for it. The most interesting pattern that we could see is for me a reject of (2a) to go down to (2b) which could be a nice entry on signal around $950. Else, probabilities to see it continu on the bull side are strong but I'm not confident on any areas, except the support of $860, to target entries once we will reach the resistance area of $1,340 - $1,270. CRUDE OIL ✅ I said in last update : "If I had an advice to give : stay away or be on short timeframe on this asset. Too much risk to see price manipulated by news on this public interest asset." and so after +30% in a week we have to look back on montly timeframe to search resistances. I believe in the fact that it will fall as rapidly as it surged and I also believe in the fact that we will not stay a long time at this level. Oh .... wait ! Just don't take care of what I just said, like the last commodities update it's just a manipulated asset and price will go where OPEP want to see it. So stay away of it. For those who really want my technical analysis it is : I think we can do an ATH just to say : "It's all time high !" but we will find a strong selling pressure because of (1b) and fall down rapidly. WHEAT ✅ Similar to oil technically, boosted by the macroeconomic context we did a new ATH and seen a strong selling pressure. However I don't think it's wise to sell it. We totally outbreak the range we was looking to in the last update, now if we break the resistance it could go really high but you will be attached to macroeconomic news so I advise to also stay away of it in both side.Take profits if you are exposed on it. SUGAR ✅ Rectification from the last update : we are always in the Wyckoff reaccumulation. I thought it failed because of the candle of the 10th of January but it seems to be an anomaly of market and the structure around the 28th of February confort me in the fact that it is a spring. Now we have jumped over the creek so the best area to target entry is, like for the copper pattern, the pullback on the creek. It's exactly the same pattern that we had on copper now, so just wait signals. If it go straight without pullback just let it go and don't buy in the resistance area before a breakout, there is a lot of resistances which will bring many pressure I think for the SOS. 🛑 Like, follow or comment if you like, it give me some strength to continue! 🛑
COMEX:HG1!
by Kentg
26
The GoldSilver head and shoulders and bearish wedgeThis is tagged as short due to the bearish patterns on the chart but it is kinda confusing because I am writing this to long silver A zoom out has help me get a more detailed look at the goldsilver ratio. What appeared to be random chop and a blow off top now appears to be a left shoulder and head. The C19 dump created a new all time high for the goldsilver ratio and ever since then it has been bearishness. The ratio dropped almost in half from 120 to 64 and then created a classic bearish rising wedge pattern. Given the quick downside we have a flagpole and a bearish continuation structure that combined with the previous chop looks like a head and shoulders. The chart also shows a Fibonacci channel with the carats showing the anchor points. With the bearish chart pattern I see a high probability that the monthly MACD sees a bearish cross of the signal line as we see performance on the flag pole/head and shoulders. Here is a draw on the channel drawn to monthly candle bodies as opposed to wicks. One reason I think the fib channel is valid for trading is there are lots of strong reversals at key levels. Now this is a important point: I don't foresee this move happening in the next year or so. Price has spent a lot of time bounding around between the 62-66 range and since it has bounced there so many time as both support and resistance there is a fair chance that the ratio will be testing the range as resistance in the next couple of years if it fails as support here. A initial sell off then a return to the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern would be very typical price action. The chart below shows a fib draw and just the bottom of the fib channel. There is a confluence between the 1.618 target and the trend line support so some stall or bounce there is concurrent with the flag pole portion of the head and shoulders. Below is my favorite example of a chart pattern hitting target off all time. It is a head and shoulders draw on Ford with quite the cant to the neckline, but it predicted a massive sell off and the technical traders stepped in right where we would expect them at that key ratio. Sure, price went down another 10% but if you were the mad man buying long term out of the money calls down there you would look like a genius. The targeting shows that we can't expect much below that 1.618 level with a high level of confidence. I have heard some technical analysts with a lot more experience than me say a flat neckline gets you better performance but I think I will be happy rotating out of silver into something else between 39 and 41. Some Silver Nasdaq Stuff Below is a comparison between the NDX, Silver, and Silver/NDX. It is still a bit to early to tell if Silver/NDX is in a ascending triangle with the purple as resistance or a symmetrical triangle shown by the black. But the case for NDX and Silver moving in opposite directions seems clear. This could be its own post, and maybe I will make it one. The high beta index is NDX, and silver is high beta compared to gold. Just by simply looking at the SilverNDX pair it looks like equities broadly isn't a good decision. But if it looks like SilverNDX and GoldSilver are reversing at the same time it will be time to broadly be looking at equities and tech stocks and not precious metals and mines.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by This_Guhy
5
GOLD - To the Moon?-With Russian banks getting banned and sanctioned everywhere, what will happen to the market? Well if you freeze a country's dollar reserves, you decrease the liquidity within the market. With the decreased liquidity central banks such as FED would normally have to print more money or open more Swap Lines for other banks so that these banks have money to lend. This whole swift ban and sanctions on Russia have such a dramatic effect on the economy which we can't even imagine how will come out in the end. Definitely has a bearish effect tho! -Another issue is the rising Gas prices. Well, why do they rise tho? Maybe because Russia is a major supplier of Gas internationally? That might be the issue, right? Of course, it is! One thing that Putin has, and that's his Ego. With so many sanctions applied to him from his western friends, he definitely plans about a pay-back in terms of Gas. Germany is a major economy in the European Union and Germany greatly depends on Russia for Gas. Guess what happens in inflation goes up in Germany due to rising oil prices? Union goes down as a whole. -Third and last issue is the March Fed interest rate hike. Initially, it was clear that Powell wants to start easy with some small rise, but what about now? With the whole war and its effects on additional inflation, will we have a bigger rise? Or will FED ignore inflation for a while and save the market from a crash by easing the economy for a little more? Well, that's the question that keeps the market away from the crash, for now, it all depends on FED. Honestly, in this hell, we see no light, super bearish. But who are we when there is FED and their decision in March? Let's see how it goes!
TVC:GOLDLong
by caldooninvestment
Vox support holds, assets will support through 2022C$3.66 is a weekly support level that has been tested and proven to be a solid base to build on. Looking left along the chart there is very little imbalance within the price action to backfill unless of course, we go lower. With their focus on acquiring third-party royalties mainly within the precious metals (80%), they are delivering growth and returns on the invested capital and have executed 25 separate transactions since 2019. Invested capital so far is C$32M and now they have around C$140M total equity value. In 2021 they had 5 producing assets in the next year or so we should be seeing that number more than double. There are currently 17 royalties in the development stage and 33 in exploration.
V
by TH_Analysis
XAUUSD UpdateAnother week another post that the gold is short despite it is melting up on a Russian-Ukraine war hype. Yes, the triangle scenario is getting extremely challenged. I even allow a scenario where the triangle is broken and I have to relabel it in some other bearish way. Tradingwise, I am very close to the point where I give up with my shorts to step outside and watch whatever happens next be it a melt up or forming the local top which will allow me to re-enter. If it melts up - perhaps I will miss that move. I will elaborate more using my blog / website referring to Silver charts for confirmation.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Fomenka
Vox Royalty finds weekly supportI am going to assume that the price of gold is supported around the $1800 for the rest of 2022. If that level were to break, and a bear market ensued, precious metals miners, #GDX, etc. would come under pressure and the current rising tide that is lifting all boats would recede and companies like Vox Royalty Corp may come under pressure becue of sentiment. Fundamentally, the Vox Royalty story goes from strength to strength and this coming earnings report should highlight the accretive nature of the current producing royalties which will form a base for what happens in the rest of 2022 and then beyond. With all that said, I don't think we get back down to C$2.69, which is the previous support, imbalance. This week's low dipped into C$3.66 and was rejected, which to me shows that the support level is currently there with the volume confirming the price action. Looking left across the chart, there is no level of market structure to worry about, which means liquidity runs above C$4.00 is the path of least resistance.
V
by TH_Analysis
AUY's Inevitable Path to $7Is it finally time to be bullish on gold and silver mining stocks? A lot of indicators are pointing to YES. There will certainly be pullbacks along the way, but with interest rates rising and war tensions overseas, precious metal stocks are beginning to gain a lot of interest. NYSE:AUY will be the perfect example of that. The featured content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. Everything shared here is my own opinion. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment based on your own personal circumstances. Please subscribe to our channel if you like what you are seeing!
ALong
by jstrasburger
1
There will be ,,golden‘‘ times coming From a chart technical perspective we are nearly at the highest point of the cyclicality. It’s unbelievable if you recognize how many years it’s costs to stay there where we are. Anyway, if we see at the fundamentals right now, it doesn’t seems that bad for gold: - inflation isn’t peaking - Russia Ukraine could getting more worse (I don’t hope so) - Gold is hitting 1870$ for several times & - (If we should gonna get more worse economic datas than gold will more rise) We are at a level of 1870$ right now. We could nearly hit 1900/1920 (or even more) in middle of march. If the FED will hike the interest rates we are gonna see big pullback to much bigger lower levels like 1720 or 1640. For now…
TVC:GOLDLong
by Heinisch_2108
XAUUSD UpdateGold did it again. Smashed my shorts. Still what happened in the red rectangle does not allow me to interpret the recent development as a bullish move. I keep watching for a turnaround. Though now it is again extremely challenging, and there is no divergence against the RSI. I remember I hesitated to label the recent abrupt sell-off as 5 wave impulse thinking it was wxy in wave 1 of the leading triangle. I was right about wxy, I was wrong about the leading triangle. Now I am back to square one, betting on a turn around in gold with no hard evidence so far on 4 hour chart.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Fomenka
3
Gold - Odds of bullish breakout are increasingGold keeps holding up pretty well despite the prospect of upcoming rate hikes in 2022. It continues its choppy price action within the neutral zone between 1750 USD and 1835 USD. At the moment, it trades slightly below the upper bound of the neutral zone which increases odds of yet another bullish breakout. We noted previously that we expected such breakout to be accompanied by resumption of the uptrend. However, previous breakouts became invalidated shortly after their occurrence took place. Because of that we will pay close attention to price action and we will reassess the situation as developments move forward. Illustration 1.01 Picture above shows the daily chart of XAUUSD. It also shows the price which has returned back into the upward moving channel. This is bullish development. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI and Stochastic are bullish. MACD is bullish too. Same applies to DM+ and DM-. ADX contains low value which signals that no trend is currently present. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish. However, lack of suggests that price action will continue to be choppy until breakout above the neutral zone or below it takes place. Illustration 1.02 Picture above depicts the daily chart of XAUUSD and its previous false breakouts and invalidations. We will observe whether gold will manage to break above the resistance at 1835 USD without being invalidated shortly after. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI and Stochastic are neutral. MACD is bullish. DM+ and DM- are mixed with ADX suggesting the presence of the neutral trend. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral. Support and resistance Main resistance lies at the upper bound of the neutral zone (1835 USD) while main support sits at its lower bound (1750 USD). Other important resistance levels can be found at 1850 USD, 1877 USD, 1916 USD. Other important support levels can be found at 1725 USD, 1700 USD and 1676 USD. Please feel free to express your own ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Tradersweekly
7