SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-19-25: GAP Reversal Counter-trendToday's pattern suggests a morning GAP will lead to a price reversal in a counter-trend type of mode.
I read this as a potential that price will initially struggle to find a trend. Eventually, when it does identify a trend mode, I believe that trend will strengthen into a reversal of the current upward price trend.
Normally, Counter-trend patterns invert. So, what I would have expected as an uptrend would turn into a downtrend. But, the markets have moved into a very consolidated price channel near recent highs and volume has diminished strongly.
Because of this type of setup, I believe an aggressive breakaway or breakdown price move is pending.
Price will attempt to make a move - and when it does, it should be explosive.
My continued research, which I share with you in this video, continues to suggest price will stall out and revert downward.
We'll see how things play out over the next few days.
Gold and Silver are back near recent all-time highs. Stay cautious of a breakdown in metals associated with a breakdown in the SPY/QQQ.
BTCUSD is still struggling to make a move. As you will see, I believe the dominant trend is to the downside right now.
In short, we are standing at the edge of a cliff regarding price action. At this point, we either grow wings and soar higher or fall downward - hoping for a soft landing.
Buckle up.
Get some.
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GOLD-SILVER
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Post Market Update : Big Squeeze CloseToday is quite a day in terms of trading volatility and volume. We've not seen a low-volume day like today in the SPY for more than a year.
It is very likely this rally near the close of trading was more of a short-squeeze and not really a momentum breakout.
We'll see how things play out tomorrow. But, I'm not budging related to my expectations of a breakdown in the markets over the next 5-10+ days.
I see this market as completely over-cooked to the upside - and it seems to be evident in the lack of buying volume playing out.
My Custom Crash index is flat and topping. My Custom Volatility Index is flat and topping. My Custom US Leading Index is actually LOWER so far this week.
One thing is certain, there is a lot of open "air" below the 598 level on the SPY.
Buckle Up.
When it breaks - it may be a BIG BREAKDOWN setting up.
Get Some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-18 : GAP PotentialAs the markets continue to struggle to break away from the current consolidated/sideways price trend, one thing is certain: The current FLAG/EPP pattern is setting up an explosive price move.
My expectations are for a price breakdown, as my predictive modeling and GANN Cycle Patterns suggest that Major Bottoms will set up near February 21 and March 21-23.
These major Bottoms suggest a strong potential for a price breakdown, reflecting uncertainty for the first half of 2025.
Additionally, I believe the strength of the US Dollar is driving a "Capital Shift," where foreign capital is actively moving away from currency and economic risks, pooling aggressively into the safest currency and assets. This translates into capital pooling into US, UK, and EURO assets to avoid broader currency devaluation events.
The dynamics of the global markets are very interesting right now. The influx of capital into the strongest economies with the strongest currencies may present a MELT-UP type of market trend. However, the uncertainty related to future US economic growth and performance may prompt some deep downturns/pullbacks in price.
I don't see how the US markets can move past the economic turmoil of broad government restructuring until after June/July 2025.
Therefore, I continue to urge traders to stay cautious of any melt-up trend. The markets want to move higher, but there are currently extreme volatility risks related to any potential price breakdowns.
I'm watching Gold/Silver and Bitcoin to see if we move back into any euphoric phase. And right now, I'm seeing metals starting to move into a type of panic selloff while Bitcoin is struggling to regain any real strength.
The continued sideways trend of Bitcoin leads me to believe the euphoria is diminishing, and reality may be setting in. That means we may be in for a bumpy ride over the next 90+ days.
Stay fluid and stay cautious of any big breakdowns.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-14-25 : CRUSH PatternHappy Valentine's Day - everyone.
Tell the people around you how much they mean to you and how important they are to your life.
Today's SPY Cycle Pattern is a CRUSH pattern. These types of patterns are usually very large range bars that attempt to REVERT back to a mean price level - in this case - DOWNWARD.
Near the end of this video, I discuss some of my Custom Indexes and explain why the data tells me we are moving into a topping pattern for the US and global markets. Many of you watch my Plan Your Trade videos and probably think I make things up as I go.
Actually, a lot of data and research go into my decision-making. Ninety-nine percent of that data (usually in predictive modeling, Custom Indexes, and other resources) delivers a clear outcome. In this case, the result is "the markets are TOPPING."
So, even though the markets didn't cooperate with my Deep-V breakdown from Feb 10 to 13, I urge you to watch this video until the end, when I start sharing some Custom Index data/charts. Pay attention to what that data tells us.
Notably, the Smart Money Index and the Accumulation Phase Index are screaming, "The markets are TOPPING."
Gold and Silver move into a Gap-Revert-Stall-Flush pattern, again representing a reversion to the mean price level.
I believe today will be another moderately downward-trending Friday, as we've continued to see over the past three or more weeks.
Please spend a little time hitting the pause button and checking out some of my Custom Index charts. They are the data that drives much of my decision-making.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 2-13: Harami Inside PatternToday's pattern is a Harami Inside pattern. This suggests the markets will stay rather muted today - attempting to stay within yesterday's high/low range.
I believe the markets are still struggling to identify a channel that will ultimately break to the downside.
You'll see in this video why I believe the markets are struggling and will attempt to confirm the multiple Excess Phase Peak patterns over the next 20+ days - attempting to move downward.
But, we do have a very interesting FLAG/CHANNEL setup on the NQ, which is somewhat confirmed on the ES.
What I can guarantee is that we will see extreme volatility over the next 20-30+ days as price moves into the Flag Apex - attempting to break away from the Apex level.
Thank you for all your support and understanding yesterday. Dad is good. No issues.
The VA out here is great (Long Beach). Probably the best center for spinal recovery in the US. I love the people up there and how they take care of my father.
I urge everyone to stay cautious until the end of this week. As you know, I expect a breakdown into new lows.
We'll see if it plays out as I expect over the next week+.
Get some.
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Gold and Silver Out of Sync-Extreme Sentiment and Runaway Movesgold and silver futures chart analysis and why gold may no longer predictably be used to time the silver moves at this period in time; though there are several ways for silver to reach 37-43 and ultimately 50, as gold is likely set to overshoot 3000.
Daily Market Outlook: BTC & Forex Setups (#2)Today’s market saw extreme volatility following the USD CPI data release. Inflation appears to be rising due to Trump’s recent tariff actions on countries like Canada, Mexico, and China, adding further pressure to markets. This led to a major sell-off in crypto and stocks, while pairs like USD/JPY surged.
📉 BTC 4H Analysis – Holding Support or Breaking Down?
BTC dropped hard to $94K after the CPI release but found some rejection and is now still holding above the 4H support at $95K.
📊 Potential Scenarios:
1️⃣ If BTC stabilizes above $95K, we could see a breakout above $98,500, triggering long setups.
2️⃣ If $95K fails, expect a test of lower supports at 92K and possibly $85K if rate cuts don’t continue.
📌 Recommendation: Stay cautious and wait for clear structure before entering.
🟡 XAU/USD (Gold) – Bullish Recovery After Support Test
Gold remains in a major uptrend and recently completed a price correction to the $2,884 support zone. After a fake breakout, it is now recovering and pushing higher.
📊 Trade Idea:
✅ Long trigger above $2,910 for confirmation.
✅ More aggressive entry: Buy early if we see higher highs forming.
⚪ XAG/USD (Silver) – Momentum Building for a Breakout
Silver has been forming an accelerating uptrend curve, indicating increasing bullish momentum. This suggests the potential for high R/R trades if we catch the right move.
📊 Key Trade Setup:
✅ Breakout above $32.19 = Long Entry.
✅ Aggressive traders: Enter before breakout with stop-loss below the trendline.
📌 GBP/CHF Update – Holding for Bigger Move
📊 Our GBP/CHF long position triggered, but we didn’t enter just for a small range move—the goal is to catch a breakout of the daily range for at least R/R 2.
✅ Stop-loss remains below the 4H range bottom.
✅ Holding position unless market structure shifts.
Final Thoughts & Risk Management
⚠ Markets are volatile after CPI—don’t FOMO.
⚠ Keep stop-losses tight & follow structure.
⚠ See you tomorrow with another breakdown!
📌 If you missed yesterday’s analysis, go check it out for better context!
⚠ Disclaimer : These trade setups are based on my personal analysis and are not financial advice . If you don’t have a solid risk management plan , these triggers may not be suitable for you . Always do your own research (DYOR) and trade at your own risk. 💡
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-12: Base Rally PatternAlthough I believe the Base Rally pattern is still valid, the markets have been wound tightly near recent highs and I belive this unwinding/breakdown is what I have been suggesting (the Deep-V breakdown) for more than 35+ days.
I believe the sticky inflation data (CPI) will overpower the Base Rally pattern today and we will see the SPY/QQQ move downward into the Deep-V lows - likely setting up by Friday/Monday of this week.
I'm sorry I'm not able to create a morning video. I'm taking my disabled VET father to his annual checkup this morning. He is still sleeping and I don't want to wake him up.
So, you get this content as a substitute.
Be prepared for the markets to FLUSH OUT a low and try to grab some easy profits throughout today and tomorrow as the markets struggle to find support.
Remember, the broader cycle patterns can sometimes overpower the Daily Cycle Patterns. This happens when NEWS overpowers a Daily cycle pattern construct. In this case, the CPI data is overpowering the Base Rally Daily Cycle Pattern.
Ultimately, the markets will find support and move into a brief recovery phase.
Get some.
SILVER - Finally Following Gold!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈SILVER has been in a correction phase and it is currently approaching the lower bound of the blue rising wedge pattern.
Moreover, the green zone is a strong structure and support zone.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of support and lower blue trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #XAGUSD approaches the blue circle, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-11 : GAP DefenderThe GAP Defender pattern is where price struggles to maintain a recent open GAP - attempting to defend against closing that GAP.
In my mind, this is the lower GAP window between 601.30 and 602.75 (yesterday's opening GAP range).
If this recent gap is filled, then I suggest the SPY will attempt to move downward (into my Deep-V breakdown) trying to target the lower GAP near 584.29.
Watch Gold and Silver as they continue to breakdown. Any big breakdown in metals should be considered a warning sign the markets are moving into a PANIC phase (selling).
We have lots of news today (Powell and other Fed members testifying) while we just found out Trump initiated a larger tariff on steel. I believe the strength of the US Dollar will continue to put pressure on global currencies - possibly leading to even more foreign market distress. This may result in a broader global market breakdown over the next 5-10 trading days.
Remember, we have the Deep-V pattern setting up this week and another Major Bottom pattern setting up on Feb 21. I interpret this as a dual-breakdown event - where price attempts to move downward and tries to identify solid support.
Bitcoin will likely follow this trend downward over the next 5 to 10+ days.
Buckle up.
It looks like today may be the day my Deep-V breakdown starts to drive prices lower for the SPY/QQQ and other major sectors.
We'll see how things play out.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update - Watching Paint Dry...Today's market seems to be trapped in a "go nowhere" zone.
Get thread though. The markets will react to my Deep-V and Breakdown patterns with some aggression in the near future (24 to 48+ hours).
Buckle up.
This is going to get very interesting as the SPY attempts to move down to 585-590 - or lower.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-10: EveningStar Island PatternThroughout the past week and a half, I've been watching the markets as I prepare for what I believe will be a sudden and fairly aggressive Deep-V setup between 2-10 and 2-13.
Yes, that means RIGHT NOW we are sitting on top of a potentially aggressive type of FLASH market move to the downside.
Will it come from news, or someone's comments (think Fed comments or news), or will it come from some other source - if it shows up at all.
I'm sticking to my Deep-V analysis because I have no reason to believe it is wrong. We may see a mild type of Deep-V pattern, but I believe it will happen anyway.
So, as we move into this week's trading, I want to urge everyone to stay very cautious of a potential FLASH breakdown into my Deep-V type of price activity.
As you may get trapped into longs and feel comfortable entering some solid bullish price trends/trades, be aware that this FLASH breakdown (Deep-V pattern) may still be lurking behind what appears to be a solid uptrend (for now).
Gold and Silver are falling - which is perfect for my Expansion Phase rally to $4400+ (gold).
Bitcoin is stalling - preparing for a breakdown.
This is the time to prepare for the rest fo 2025. Follow my research to know when you JUMP INTO the markets for greater success.
Get some.
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ETH—Time Has become CrucialETH has had 2 weekly closes below 3000
This is not too surprising nor should it be an end all be all indicator, that determines whether the bull run in BTC, Alts, or both, is coming to a halt or resuming
With that being said, time appears to be getting important, as 3 weekly closes should certainly be concerning.
Here we can see an intact trendline from multi-year lows all the way to more recent lows, until it just recently retested.
Additionally, most volatile, and aggressive moves from from a flase breakdown, which washes out week hands one last time.
-After hitting strong support at 2150, and dropping nearly 30% in hours, ETH QUICKLY recovered the entirety of its loses within a day.
-2150 has several levels of strong support and a further array of support/former resistance levels with 25-50$
-Time is important here—I expect for ETH to make a beeline to 3000 early next week and definitively close above 3000 on the weekly chart, signaling the resumption of the altcoin bull market in earnest.
-If this does not happen, I would say there is a cause for concern, and something is very wrong.
It is also important to note the Bollinger Band crash on the weekly chart when 2150 was tested. The last time this exact scenario occurred, ETH rallied back well above 3000 in a short period of time.
Comments appreciated thanks
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-7-25: Where's The Deep-VShortly after I created the morning video, the markets opened with a BANG.
First rallying, then rolling over - just as I predicted.
Granted, I never expected the markets to rally above 606 before rolling downward, but the breakdown move into a potential Deep-V looks to be playing out very nicely right now.
Come Monday (2-10), and possibly carrying into the 13th, we could see a very sharp deep-V type price move that pushes the SPY below 580 for a period of time.
That could be a very big move from the 606+ levels we saw this morning.
And you know I'll be saying, "Just as I predicted," for at least 3 to 5 days starting early next week if that happens.
Again, I put my research out to the public like this to either live or die by my work. Very few people are able to do this - or they flip/flop all the time (every 2-3 hours).
My research is different. I'm really trying to make a difference by telling traders what to expect now and in the future.
I know I'm starting to make a difference for many people because I'm getting emails and messages from individuals who use my research to identify great trade opportunities.
Are you going to be the next person to share your success story with me?
Remember, have a safe weekend and GET SOME come Monday morning.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-7-25: Carryover PatternAs many of you know, I'm still expecting a breakdown in the markets leading to my Deep-V pattern on the 9th and the secondary Major Bottom on the 10th.
Why haven't we started to move downward yet? I really don't know. I suspect the markets are being pushed higher by Market Makers trying to crush the shorts (premium).
Either way, we'll know how this is going to play out over the next 5+ days.
If I'm right, we'll see the SPY break downward towards 580-590 over the next 5+ days.
The QQQ should move down 510-515 throughout that same breakdown (possibly a bit lower).
I expect Gold and Silver to also move downward if this breakdown in the SPY/QQQ happens as I expect. Metals tend to move downward when the SPY/QQQ makes a sudden impulsive breakdown move.
Bitcoin also appears to be poised for a breakdown event.
It seems that all the indexes and symbols I follow in the morning video are already standing near the edge of a cliff, just waiting to jump off.
I urge traders to move into a protective mode (protecting open longs and hedging against any breakdown event) over the next 5-10+ days.
We'll eventually see another bounce/rally off some lows, but right now, everything looks ready to JUMP (off the cliff).
Get Some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-6-25: Counter-Trend RALLY Today's pattern is a counter-trend Rally pattern. I read this as a downward trending type of rally phase/bar.
Much like yesterday's rally in the markets. Today should be just the opposite - a downward trending bar.
I believe this is a move downward setting up the Deep-V pattern which should hit early next week.
I suggest traders prepare for a rollover-topping pattern near this upper resistance area and prepare for the markets to move downward - seeking support.
Gold and Silver will likely move downward as well if the market does roll over, as I suspect. Gold and Silver tend to move downward when the markets shift into a downward trend.
Bitcoin is trapped within a range (again), and it appears that over the next few days, it will attempt to move downward with the markets.
Again, the next four to five days will be a do-or-die type of move. I've been telling all of you this Deep-V breakdown will happen for more than thirty days, so I'm watching to see if it really does happen.
Either way, it is now a bad idea to take some profits near these highs in preparation for any potential breakdown.
Get Some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade : Where's The Deep-V Bottom?I created this video to help illustrate what I believe are nearly perfect setups of multiple Excess Phase Peak Patterns over the past 30+ days in the SPY and QQQ.
It is incredible how these patterns continue to form/setup in a broadening sideways price channel. If we didn't know to look for these patterns, we could easily mistake this volatility as some type of longer-term buying opportunity.
Remember, if my research is correct, we are going to see an almost immediate reversal of the trend over the next 48 hours - leading to a Deep-V set up in the early few days of next week.
I've been wrong before, but I really do believe this Deep-V downward trend is about to happen.
I believe some news event over the weekend could send the markets into a minor panic-type selloff.
Additionally, I believe the disruptions related to what is happening in DC and other areas may be enough to send the markets searching for support.
Recent earnings have not been fantastic, and we are moving into a relatively complacent Q1:2025. So, I still believe we are moving into a broadening "megaphone" price range on the SPY and QQQ.
One thing is certain right now: In about 4 to 7 days, we'll know whether my Deep-V base/bottom pattern call (from more than 30 days ago) was accurate.
Buckle up, folks. This is when things get really interesting.
Get Some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 2-5-25 Update : Rally PatternRight now, the markets continue to struggle to move higher. We are seeing a solid upward price trend, but I'm watching the MNQ and metals for any signs of weakness.
At this stage of the market's price action, I'm cautiously waiting for the ROLLOVER to setup.
My patterns suggest we move into a Counter-Trend Rally phase tomorrow (which would be a downward trending bar).
I believe the end of the trading day may see a very solid Long-Squeeze (trending downward) today.
And, as of right now - I'm just sitting on my trades, waiting for the Rollover to happen.
I would not suggest taking any big long trades right now unless you are prepared for the risks.
Sometimes, this is what trading is all about.
Looks like things are going to get very exciting over the next 3-5+ days.
GET SOME.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-5-25: Rally PatternFor some reason, the first video I created did now complete the UPLOAD to Tradingview. Don't know why.
I waited more than 60 minutes for it to upload, then gave up, saved it, and uploaded it to another location so you could access it. Check my profit for more info.
This is a short video highlighting why I believe the markets will rally a bit in early trading and then roll over into a strong downward trend through the end of this week.
Gold and Silver should continue to try to rally higher.
Bitcoin is about to break downward - targeting 80-85k
That is the short update today.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For Feb 4, 2025: Rally PatternToday's rally pattern will attempt to provide some relief related to the recent breakdown in the SPY. Overnight, the ES/NQ rallied to FILL THE GAP. So, today, I believe the SPY will attempt to rally back above 600-601, then stall out and consolidate.
Today may be a "GO GOLFING" day in the markets.
I would not advise anyone to get Uber-Long in the markets right now. My research suggests the markets will roll downward near the end of this week - seeking the DEEP-V bottom/base I've predicted near 2-10~2-13.
Gold and Silver should attempt another rally phase over the next 3 to 4 days. I expect metals to continue to rally into this expansion phase, and I'm initially targeting $3200 for gold.
Bitcoin is trapped in a big Excess Phase Peak pattern that I believe will resolve into a breakdown price trend.
The Deep-V and other breakdown patterns, which my cycle research says are pending, will drive Bitcoin downward, possibly targeting the $72k levels again.
Today may be a relatively FLAT type of Rally day. So, play cautiously.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold