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Gold testing key resistance hereGold has been able to ignore the US dollar strength and rising bond yields until now. But since topping out in October, it has created a few lower highs, suggesting that the trend is no longer bullish as it was in the early parts of last year. The precious metal is now testing a bearish trend line derived from connecting the prior two highs. This trend line happens to cut through a key resistance zone between 2675 to 2685. What's more, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level against the December high comes in around this area, at 2671. All this makes it an ideal area for the sellers to potentially step in. Can we see a potential drop here? Or will the bulls prevail despite all these technical hurdles? By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXcom
Gold is still a safe investment channel.After a 27% gain in 2024, gold is still making experts and retail investors confident, with the precious metal forecast to surpass $3,000 an ounce this year. However, the rally will not happen immediately as the current consolidation phase is expected to last for several more months. Some experts predict that gold will trade in the range of $2,500-2,700 an ounce in the first half of the year, but prices will break out and surpass $3,000 an ounce in the second half of 2025. The bullish macro picture, combined with continued geopolitical risks and strong government buying, will push gold prices to new highs in 2025. Gold prices are largely driven by the Federal Reserve’s decision this year. “The key question for the gold market now is how quickly the Fed will ease policy following Donald Trump’s victory, with the inflationary impact of Trump’s policies likely to result in fewer rate cuts than expected.”
TVC:GOLD
by FalCol_TradingMaster
Nonfarm Forecast This WeekendUS Treasury yields rose to their highest since May last year, which has been a factor in the decline in gold prices. In contrast, the US dollar index fell sharply today due to concerns about the country's ballooning debt burden, which also supported gold's highs. In a new development, President-elect Donald Trump denied that he would ease new trade tariffs. Mr. Trump dismissed a Washington Post report citing his aides as saying that the new president might be more selective about new tariffs. After rising 27% in 2024, Goldman Sachs recently dropped its forecast for gold to reach $3,000 an ounce by the end of 2025, instead forecasting 2026 due to expectations that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates less. Investors are now looking ahead to Friday's nonfarm payrolls data, which is expected to help shape expectations for the Fed's interest rate path this year. Market watchers are also looking to private sector employment data and the minutes of the Fed's most recent policy meeting for further details. 🔥 XAUUSD SELL 2640 - 2638🔥 💵 TP1: 2630 💵 TP2: 2620 💵 TP3: OPEN 🚫 SL: 2647
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
World gold price todayOver the past 10 years, January has typically been the best month for gold. However, Low said that is not necessarily true in the post-pandemic era when countries are still struggling. He pointed out that while recent data shows that Chinese gold demand has been strong over the past 12 months, some US factors could hold back gold prices this month. Investors are still looking at the hawkish factors at the US central bank’s final policy meeting of the year, he said. The revelation that the Fed will slow its pace of rate cuts this year has put the US dollar in a good position, which is not very positive for the precious metal. Another issue Low noted was that the technical outlook for the yellow metal had deteriorated somewhat over the past week. He observed that prices had fallen below the 100-day moving average for the first time in more than a year. Although prices have rebounded in subsequent sessions on the back of buying from investors, he noted that this is also a negative sign for gold.
TVC:GOLDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
Gold price today 1/2/2025Safe haven demand and central bank rate cuts are the catalysts for gold’s rise in 2024, with the precious metal likely to rise more than 26% in the year, its best performance since 2010. Experts say these factors will continue to drive the precious metal in the new year. However, sentiment is likely to turn more cautious given the policy shift under US President Donald Trump. Geopolitical tensions are expected to remain elevated next year, as central banks continue to buy gold, while the US debt problem could return. Donald Trump. All of this will provide safe haven demand for the precious metal... This expert commented that this year will be a bit difficult for gold as the price of this precious metal has increased by nearly 27% in 2024. Prices cooled down in November and December but mainly due to the US election results as it somewhat affected the outlook of the US Federal Reserve (FED) this year. 🔥 XAUUSD SELL 2636 - 2638🔥 💵 TP1: 2615 💵 TP2: 2605 💵 TP3: OPEN 🚫 SL: 2645
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
USD is recovering because of hawkish policiesLast week, the global gold market had a quiet trading week, with prices capped at $2,650/ounce. This week, gold prices are also expected to remain flat due to the tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and pressure from the recovery of bond yields and the greenback. Speaking about gold's movements in 2025, City Index market analyst Fawad Razaqzada said that although the US dollar and higher bond yields could negatively impact gold, there are still some supporting factors that could help the precious metal reach $3,000/ounce. The expert explained that amid persistent inflation concerns, the US Central Bank is expected to be more cautious in its interest rate decisions next year. This is likely to support bond yields and the US dollar, two factors that often reduce the appeal of gold. Higher bond yields have a significant impact on investment demand for the yellow metal, as they increase the opportunity cost of holding these non-yielding assets. “At the same time, the greenback’s resilience, supported by hawkish central bank policies and strong economic data, makes gold more expensive for buyers holding other currencies. These dynamics could limit gold’s upside potential in the first half of next year.” 🔥 XAUUSD SELL 2625 - 2628🔥 💵 TP1: 2620 💵 TP2: 2610 💵 TP3: OPEN 🚫 SL: 2637
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
World gold prices have not changed muchIn its Commodity Outlook 2025 report, TD Securities analysts noted that the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, geopolitical uncertainty and strong central bank demand for gold have pushed gold prices to record highs this year, but capital flows have not provided strong support. "There is no shortage of compelling macro stories that have fueled gold's rally in recent months ahead of the US election. However, the gold rally has not been supported by capital flows. Modules have maintained a 'maximum buy' status since August, confirmed by the largely unchanged COT report. In Shanghai, traders have sold nearly 35 tonnes of nominal gold in recent weeks as domestic investment opportunities have become more attractive. Gold buying has been driven largely by traditional ETFs and China. Fund managers have largely eliminated short positions. At the same time, rising US dollar and US interest rates have reduced the attractiveness of gold to Western capital inflows in the short term."
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
World gold price increased slightlyLooking ahead to gold prices, John LaForge, head of physical asset strategy at Wells Fargo, said during his bank's annual outlook webinar that he won't be paying much attention to the Federal Reserve in 2025. Economists at the bank expect the U.S. central bank to cut interest rates only once next year. He also pays more attention to central bank demand than the opportunity cost of real yields, said the macro investment strategist at Tanglewood Total Wealth Management. Analysts are also paying attention to emerging market consumer demand. In early 2024, gold prices were boosted by record central bank purchases and unprecedented demand from Asian consumers and investors, primarily China. World gold prices increased slightly as the USD decreased. Recorded at 9:35 a.m. on December 26, the US Dollar Index, which measures the fluctuations of the greenback against 6 major currencies, was at 107.940 points (down 0.08%). According to the World Gold Council (WGC), central banks' demand for gold has reached its highest level in more than ten years. This is a clear demonstration of gold's solid position as a safe haven asset, especially when the global geopolitical and economic situation continues to be unstable. At the same time, loose monetary policies and a slower pace of interest rate hikes from central banks have also contributed to creating positive momentum for gold prices. 🔥 OANDA:XAUUSD SELL 2631 - 2629🔥 💵 TP1: 2620 💵 TP2: 2610 💵 TP3: OPEN 🚫 SL: 2638
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
World gold prices slightly decreased as the USD increasedHowever, the precious metal is under some pressure as the dollar index rose sharply and US Treasury yields rose slightly. The Conference Board reported on Monday that its US consumer confidence index fell to 104.7, down from a revised 112.8 in November. The reading was weaker than expected, with economists predicting the index would be largely unchanged. “Expectations that consumer confidence would continue to recover were not realized in December, as the index fell back to its two-year average,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board. Gold is struggling to find its way amid the holiday lull, said James Hyerczyk, an analyst at FX Empire. “The Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and forecast of fewer rate cuts in 2025 are keeping gold under pressure. The precious metal will face key support tests during the holiday week
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
After the US pivoted monetary policy : ??At the beginning of the trading session on December 19 (US time), the world gold price continued to decrease after the US announced the number of unemployment benefit applications was 220,000, down from the forecast of 230,000 applications. This prompted the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to slow down the process of cutting interest rates in the future. Previously, gold investors were disappointed when the Fed sent out an unfavorable signal right after the monetary policy meeting on December 18. The US Central Bank issued a new forecast, showing that there will be 2 rounds of 25 basis point interest rate cuts next year. According to independent metal trader Tai Wong, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell revealed that he will slow down the process of cutting interest rates in the context of persistent inflation. This message from the Fed will make the gold price trend worse in the long term. According to analysts, the gold market has been volatile at times after the US pivoted its monetary policy. Specifically, the FED is expected to cut interest rates by a total of 0.5 percentage points only twice in 2025. This is a big change compared to the FED's announcement in September 2024 that there would be 4 interest rate cuts next year. This move has stimulated a very strong increase in the price of the USD and US bond interest rates. Because gold is priced in USD, when the "health" of this currency is stronger, it will put pressure on the price of this precious metal. Higher US bond interest rates have attracted investors to put capital into bonds, reducing demand for gold.
TVC:GOLDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
The economy is looking to the FedThe Fed has started its two-day policy meeting and is expected to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points. However, the focus will be on the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and dot plot, which provide guidance for interest rates in 2025. While US Treasury yields and real yields both edged lower, the US dollar remained steady. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.379%, while the DXY index rose 0.07% to 107.01. On the technical front, gold prices maintain their long-term uptrend but are under pressure in the short term. The key support level now is $2,600/ounce, which corresponds to the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). A break of this level could send prices lower to $2,531 – the August 20 high. Conversely, if the price breaks above $2,650, the next target will be $2,670 (50-day SMA), and then $2,700. In addition to the Fed’s decision, investors are awaiting the release of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, to gauge the future direction of policy. Signs that the incoming Trump administration may push for expansionary fiscal policy have raised expectations of a change in the Fed’s stance in the near term.
TVC:GOLDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
World gold price todayGold prices continued to weaken today due to stronger-than-expected important US economic news. The US retail sales report for November showed an increase of 0.7%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the forecast increase of 0.5%. This information made some gold investors worry that the FED may postpone the 0.25 percentage point interest rate cut after the end of the monetary policy meeting in the early morning of December 19. Since then, many people have temporarily stopped trading gold. On the other hand, gold is also likely to have limited purchasing power due to some forecasts of rising inflation in the US, a slowing labor market..., prompting the FED to stop cutting interest rates early in 2025. At that time, the USD could increase in value very strongly, negatively affecting the world gold price trend. The question now is whether the Fed will be more hawkish or dovish than the market has been expecting. Investors are now expecting the Fed to be more cautious in easing monetary policy, given the impact of Donald Trump’s agenda on inflation.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
XAUUSD - Daily | BREAKOUT IncomingSimple Trading - Ascending Triangle Gold is overall bullish so if the pattern breaks, it should break to the upside. Of course, if gold can not maintain bullish momentum, it may result in a further decline in the price. This pattern may not break out until the end of Dec. maybe into Jan. with this in mind we are still about to take price action trades on the smaller time frames. Levels to look out for: BULLISH: 2673 - 4hr FVG low 2683 - 4hr FVG High 2700 - supply and demand BEARISH: 2624 - 1hr Head and Shoulder Target 2610 - Daily FVG High 2590 - Daily FVG Midpoint 2575 - Daily FVG Low 2560 - Daily Double Bottom
CAPITALCOM:GOLD
by nikdobii
Gold price forecast December 17, 2024World gold prices increased slightly as the USD dropped. Recorded at 9:45 am on December 17, the US Dollar Index measuring the fluctuation of the greenback with 6 major currencies was at 106,470 points (down 0.08%). The gold market is cautious as investors prepare to receive the decision of the US Federal Reserve (FED), which is expected to reduce interest rates with a "hawkish" message after the monetary policy meeting. last of the year. Although gold prices maintained a sideways trend ahead of Wednesday's decision, one analyst said the message from the Fed could lead to a larger correction in the precious metals market. This medium-term upward trend is mainly driven by new economic policies, including deeper corporate tax cuts and increased tariffs on imports to the US. These policies could cause inflation to increase in 2025 and beyond. Wong also highlighted that real yields on the 10-year note have rebounded sharply after testing the 1.9% support level last week. If it increases to 2.29%, the opportunity cost of holding gold will be higher, making gold less attractive to investors.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by FalCol_TradingMaster
An exciting week with many important economic data.World gold prices decrease when the USD increases. Recorded at 9:40 a.m. on December 16, the US Dollar Index measuring the fluctuation of the greenback with 6 major currencies was at 106,570 points (down 0.11%). According to Naeem Aslam - investment director of Zaye Capital Markets, gold investors should mentally prepare for the possibility of gold prices weakening next week. The main reason comes from the US Federal Reserve (FED) reducing expectations about cutting interest rates, in the context of inflation still being "persistent". Lukman Otunuga - market analyst at FXTM - gave a neutral comment on gold prices in the short term. According to him, the trend of this precious metal will largely depend on the policy message that FED officials give in the upcoming meeting. Otunuga emphasized that, if the FED continues to maintain its "hawkish" stance, this could limit the ability of gold prices to increase as investors gradually narrow their expectations for stronger interest rate cuts next year. 2025. On the contrary, if the FED signals to loosen policy in 2024, gold prices could increase to 2,700 USD/ounce or higher. 🔥 XAUUSD SELL 2656 - 2654🔥 💵 TP1: 2630 💵 TP2: 2610 💵 TP3: OPEN 🚫 SL: 2665
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
Investors predict the Fed will lower interest ratesAccording to a report by the World Gold Council (WGC), the People's Bank of China (PBOC) bought gold for reserves in November after a 6-month pause. China's gold reserves rose to 72.96 million ounces of pure gold at the end of November, up from 72.8 million ounces the previous month. In November, gold prices dropped sharply due to the sell-off after the US election results. WGC said that central banks' demand for gold continues to be positive. The main motivation for buying gold is to diversify foreign exchange reserves and reduce dependence on the USD. In the US, the market is looking towards an interest rate adjustment by the Federal Reserve (Fed). According to MT Newswires, strong labor market data reduces immediate pressure on the Fed to accelerate interest rate cuts. 🔥 XAUUSD SELL 2676 - 2678🔥 💵 TP1: 2650 💵 TP2: 2640 💵 TP3: OPEN 🚫 SL: 2686 🔥 XAUUSD BUY 2653 - 5651🔥 💵 TP1: 2665 💵 TP2: 2675 💵 TP3: OPEN 🚫 SL: 2646
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
Gold prices fluctuate in a narrow rangeCurrently, gold prices are said to be "stuck" in a medium-term correction cycle, while the long-term price chart and macro fundamentals still support this safe-haven metal's price increase after the correction. Adjustment lasting 6 weeks ends. According to Kitco's latest survey, with 12 Wall Street analysts suggesting that price fluctuations are unlikely in the short term, only 17% of experts believe that the price of this precious metal will decrease, while the proportion forecast increases and decreases. equal at 42%. World gold prices have increased more than 27% this year, reaching a record high after the Fed loosened interest rates and geopolitical tensions escalated. According to the assessment of head of foreign exchange Christopher Vecchio at Tastylive, the long-term outlook for gold is still positive. If it overcomes the resistance level of 2,725 USD/ounce, gold prices could experience a fierce increase. 🔥 OANDA:XAUUSD BUY 2636 2634🔥 💵 TP1: 2645 💵 TP2: 2655 💵 TP3: OPEN 🚫 SL: 2628
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FalCol_TradingMaster
World gold prices increasedSpeaking in an interview with the press hosted by the New York Times yesterday, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve (FED) - Jerome Powell - said the US economy is now stronger than when the FED started cutting interest rates in September. According to Mr. Powell, the positive news is that the FED can be more careful in setting neutral interest rates - interest rates that do not promote or inhibit growth. However, the FED Chairman did not directly mention the FED's policy direction at the meeting from December 17 to 18. However, some analysts believe that the FED's interest rate reduction process may slow down. Gold prices often react sensitively to changes in the FED's interest rate policy. When interest rates fall, the opportunity cost of holding gold - a non-interest-bearing asset - also decreases, increasing the appeal of gold as an investment channel. Conversely, if the Fed slows down in reducing interest rates or keeps interest rates at a higher level than expected, this could reduce demand for gold, leading to downward pressure on prices. 🔥 OANDA:XAUUSD BUY 2643 - 2645🔥 💵 TP1: 2655 💵 TP2: 2665 💵 TP3: OPEN 🚫 SL: 2637
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FalCol_TradingMaster
The short-term gold market is difficult to predictLast week, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure was the newly announced personal consumption expenditure index (PCE). PCE increased 2.8% over the past 12 months, higher than expected. The US central bank indicated in its latest meeting minutes that higher-than-expected inflation could force it to adjust the pace of its easing cycle. The market still predicts the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and will continue cutting until early 2025. In addition to Trump's social media posts, markets will focus on key economic data this week such as jobs data. If the employment situation is not as expected, gold prices may increase again. A stronger labor market could make an interest rate cut unlikely this month. Investors who record profits can rest assured. In the long term, market sentiment is quite optimistic. Many analysts believe that gold price will reach 3,000 USD/ounce next year. 🔥 XAUUSD BUY 2627 - 2625🔥 💵 TP1: 2640 💵 TP2: 2650 💵 TP3: OPEN 🚫 SL: 2618
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FalCol_TradingMaster
World gold price todayWorld gold prices continued to increase slightly, with spot gold increasing by 3.2 USD to 2,632.8 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at $2,660.40 an ounce, up $4.80 from the bright spot. USD weakness added momentum to gold on Wednesday. Accordingly, the US Dollar Index fell 0.8%, hitting a two-week low, increasing the appeal of gold to holders of other currencies. However, the growth rate of this precious metal has been limited by the release of new data showing the potential distribution of chlorophyll. This indicates that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could be very important in cutting interest rates. According to the report, US consumer spending increased sharply in October, but the slowdown appears to have been patchy in recent months. According to the minutes of the recent policy meeting released on Tuesday, there is currently uncertainty about the direction of the economy. That increased market expectations for an interest rate cut in December after the minutes were released. According to CME's FedWatch tool, the market currently forecasts a 70% chance of a 0.25 percentage point rate cut.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
World gold price decreasedDespite the decrease, world gold still maintains the level of 2,630 USD/ounce. Neils Christensen - an analyst at Kitco News commented that gold prices are anchored high as this precious metal continues to reflect uncertain geopolitical changes related to the upcoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump. . However, one market analyst still expects the gold bullish trend to continue until 2025. In a recent interview with Kitco News, Nitesh Shah - Head of Macroeconomics & Commodities Research Model at WisdomTree, said he expects the US dollar to fall by 2025, creating favorable conditions for gold prices to rise. At the same time, Shah said that the Federal Reserve's (FED) easing cycle will help push bond yields lower, another positive factor for higher gold prices. The newly released minutes of the FED's November meeting provide important information about the central bank's economic outlook. Fed officials expressed growing confidence in the economy's trajectory, especially regarding inflation and the labor market. The minutes showed policymakers believe inflation is gradually moving toward the Fed's 2% target and that the labor market is currently strong.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
Russia-Ukraine tensions appear to be spreadingRussian President Vladimir Putin today, November 22, announced that the test of a medium-range missile complex carrying an Oreshnik supersonic warhead was successful. A day earlier, Russia attacked the Southern Machine Manufacturing Factory (Yuzhmash) in Dnipro (Ukraine), saying this was a move in response to Ukraine's use of ATACMS missiles supplied by the US with Storm Shadow missiles from the UK. This week, gold prices increased by 5.7% - recording the strongest weekly increase since March 2023 - when the local banking crisis in the US broke out. The price has increased for 5 consecutive versions, for a total of more than 170 USD. Gold is the preferred tool during any political, economic upheaval and low interest rates. The price went up despite the Dollar Index reaching a 2-year peak today and Bitcoin setting a new record at 99,768 USD per coin. The gold market also ignores that the probability of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) easing monetary policy next month is gradually decreasing. Investors currently forecast that the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates is only 53%, down sharply from 82% last week. 🔥 XAUUSD BUY 2672 - 2670🔥 💵 TP1: 2680 💵 TP2: 2690 💵 TP3: OPEN 🚫 SL: 2660
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FalCol_TradingMaster