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Gold-trading

Gold Gains Amid Low US Inflation – More Upside Ahead? Looking at the gold price action on the 4-hour chart, I see some technical signals supporting the possibility of a price increase. Currently, the price is hovering around $2,699 and maintaining above the EMA 34 ($2,693) and EMA 89 ($2,672). This shows that the uptrend is still dominant. At the same time, the price bounced after touching near the EMA 34 in the recent session, reinforcing the important support role of this area. The arrangement of the EMAs still supports the uptrend, with the EMA 34 above the EMA 89. This combined with the recovery momentum from technical support creates expectations that the price will test the important resistance zone at $2,728. A break of this level would open the possibility of a price increase to the $2,750 area and higher. However, it should be noted that the support zone at $2,693 (34 EMA) will be the first line of defense if the price corrects. If the price breaks this zone, selling pressure could push the price down to the $2,672 (89 EMA) zone. Fundamentals: Lower-than-expected inflation data has reinforced expectations that the US Federal Reserve (FED) will continue to cut interest rates, which will weaken the USD and increase the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset. At the same time, investors are still waiting for economic policy information after Donald Trump returns to the White House. I see gold in a short-term consolidation but has the potential to bounce if it breaks the important resistance zone. Watch the $2,728 zone closely to assess the next market momentum.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by nini_gone
Gold will have a correctionThe US core CPI was lower than expected, a positive sign for gold, increasing the likelihood that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates this year. The market now expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 40 basis points by the end of the year, compared to around 31 basis points before the inflation data. Meanwhile, gold is stuck in the crosshairs of Donald Trump, who is about to start his second term next week. Experts say that imposing tariffs on many types of imports could increase inflation and further limit the Fed's ability to cut interest rates. Many believe that precious metals will have no shortage of bullish catalysts in 2025. According to Chris Mancini, portfolio manager of Gabelli Gold Fund, the main catalyst he is watching is economic uncertainty and the impact on consumer prices.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
World gold price increased slightly after CPIGold prices rose sharply on the back of a fresh US inflation report that showed the pace of growth was not too hot. Key US economic data released recently showed that the consumer price index (CPI) in December rose 2.9% year-on-year, in line with market expectations, compared to a 2.7% increase in the November report. The core CPI (excluding food and energy prices) rose slightly more than expected, rising just 0.2% compared to a forecast of 0.3% month-on-month. US stock indexes are expected to open sharply higher in New York trading, supported by more moderate US inflation data. In overnight news, the Japanese yen rose sharply on fresh speculation that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates at its monetary policy meeting later next week. UK consumer prices came in slightly below market expectations, raising hopes of a resumption of rate cuts when the Bank of England meets early next month.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
1
Will the USD pressure last?On the 4-hour chart, gold prices remain within the uptrend channel established since late December 2024. Despite the sharp corrections in the recent session, the current price ($2,670/ounce) is still above the dynamic support zone of the EMA 34 and EMA 89, indicating that the uptrend has not been broken. However, the pressure from the USD Index – which rose to a 2-year high of 109.35 points – is causing gold to lose short-term momentum. On a closer look, the important resistance zone at $2,696/ounce, corresponding to the recent peak, has triggered strong selling pressure. Meanwhile, the RSI in previous analyses has shown signs of overbought conditions, increasing the possibility of a correction. However, the main trend line and the $2,660/ounce support zone are still acting as psychological support for the bulls. In terms of news, the strength of the USD comes from two factors: positive US economic data and high bond yields (nearly 4.8%). These yields have attracted capital flows away from gold to invest in bonds. In addition, investors are worried about financial instability before Donald Trump returns to the White House on January 20. This uncertainty could spur some gold buying to hedge against risks, creating support for gold prices in the short term. Personal trading strategy: Bullish scenario: If the price holds above the $2,660/ounce support zone, I expect the price to bounce back to test the $2,696 zone. A breakout of this zone could push the price towards the target of $2,720. Bearish scenario: If price breaks the $2,660 zone and the 89 EMA, I expect price to fall further to the $2,640/ounce support zone, or even $2,620.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by nini_gone
Gold prices under pressure from profit takingAt the beginning of the trading session on January 13 (US time), the world gold price fell sharply due to the high demand for profit-taking in the market after the price increased continuously in recent sessions. In addition, the USD also increased sharply. The DXY index reached 109.9 points, the highest level in 2 years. However, according to analysts, in the last sessions of last week, the gold price continuously approached the level of 2,700 USD/ounce, showing positive signals for the precious metal in the future, despite the great resistance of the recovering USD and the rising US Treasury bond yields. It can be seen that in the context of many factors against gold, gold is supported by the hedging tool of inflation, financial market fluctuations, economic and geopolitical tensions. The latest survey results from WisdomTree, an American asset management group, show that the main purpose of using gold in investors' portfolios is "diversification" to spread risks, helping to minimize potential risks in other investments.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by FalCol_TradingMaster
Gold prices will fluctuate strongly when Trump takes officeGold prices fluctuated violently today when the USD Index reached 109.35 points, helping the value of the USD increase to its highest level in the past 2 years. On the other hand, bond interest rates also increased to nearly 4.8%, which encouraged many people to invest in this investment channel. Since then, very little money has flowed into the gold market. Today's gold price has taken on additional disadvantages. Under pressure from the USD and US bonds, speculators may think that holding gold is disadvantageous. Therefore, many people have sold gold to take profits. Today's gold price has naturally "evaporated" tens of USD/ounce. Analysts say the international gold market is fluctuating unpredictably due to investors' concerns about financial stability, before Mr. Donald Trump returns to the White House on January 20.
TVC:GOLDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
World gold prices increased despite the high USD.Gold prices hit a near four-week high on safe-haven demand amid financial market turmoil. Investors sought safety amid concerns about Britain's finances and President-elect Donald Trump's economic policies. In Britain, concerns about the budget deficit sent the pound to its lowest in more than a year against the dollar, with 10-year government bond yields rising to 4.92% and the FTSE 250 index falling for a third straight day, raising concerns about the risk of global financial contagion. Meanwhile, market attention turns to Friday's US nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to show the number of new jobs in December fell to 160,000, compared with 227,000 in November. 🔥 XAUUSD SELL 2677 2679🔥 💵 TP1: 2665 💵 TP2: 2655 💵 TP3: OPEN 🚫 SL: 2687
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
BITCOIN BTC Machine Learning Approximation Strategy applied GOLDHey everyone. Here's a new trade idea potentially for Gold. I created a a new trading strategy script for Bitcoin, and I tuned the parameters for Gold. The original script is called the "BITCOIN BTC Machine Learning Approximation Strategy by NHBPROD." It implements a simplified Machine learning technique and then produces and output that can be used to buy and sell. The script is only for long trading. I'll attach a link: ( ) to the original strategy script. This is the strategy script, but I also have the indicator script which can be used to automate buy and sell signals directly to your phone, email, or your bot. Anyway, applying the idea to Gold, and tuning the parameters gives me a pretty good backtest, AND it shows that Gold has just entered a buy zone on the daily chart. On average according to the performance, the average trade profit is roughly 2%, so this could be a great time to buy Gold and expect a 2% gain.
TVC:GOLDLong
by nhbprod
Gold testing key resistance hereGold has been able to ignore the US dollar strength and rising bond yields until now. But since topping out in October, it has created a few lower highs, suggesting that the trend is no longer bullish as it was in the early parts of last year. The precious metal is now testing a bearish trend line derived from connecting the prior two highs. This trend line happens to cut through a key resistance zone between 2675 to 2685. What's more, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level against the December high comes in around this area, at 2671. All this makes it an ideal area for the sellers to potentially step in. Can we see a potential drop here? Or will the bulls prevail despite all these technical hurdles? By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXcom
Gold is still a safe investment channel.After a 27% gain in 2024, gold is still making experts and retail investors confident, with the precious metal forecast to surpass $3,000 an ounce this year. However, the rally will not happen immediately as the current consolidation phase is expected to last for several more months. Some experts predict that gold will trade in the range of $2,500-2,700 an ounce in the first half of the year, but prices will break out and surpass $3,000 an ounce in the second half of 2025. The bullish macro picture, combined with continued geopolitical risks and strong government buying, will push gold prices to new highs in 2025. Gold prices are largely driven by the Federal Reserve’s decision this year. “The key question for the gold market now is how quickly the Fed will ease policy following Donald Trump’s victory, with the inflationary impact of Trump’s policies likely to result in fewer rate cuts than expected.”
TVC:GOLD
by FalCol_TradingMaster
Nonfarm Forecast This WeekendUS Treasury yields rose to their highest since May last year, which has been a factor in the decline in gold prices. In contrast, the US dollar index fell sharply today due to concerns about the country's ballooning debt burden, which also supported gold's highs. In a new development, President-elect Donald Trump denied that he would ease new trade tariffs. Mr. Trump dismissed a Washington Post report citing his aides as saying that the new president might be more selective about new tariffs. After rising 27% in 2024, Goldman Sachs recently dropped its forecast for gold to reach $3,000 an ounce by the end of 2025, instead forecasting 2026 due to expectations that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates less. Investors are now looking ahead to Friday's nonfarm payrolls data, which is expected to help shape expectations for the Fed's interest rate path this year. Market watchers are also looking to private sector employment data and the minutes of the Fed's most recent policy meeting for further details. 🔥 XAUUSD SELL 2640 - 2638🔥 💵 TP1: 2630 💵 TP2: 2620 💵 TP3: OPEN 🚫 SL: 2647
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
World gold price todayOver the past 10 years, January has typically been the best month for gold. However, Low said that is not necessarily true in the post-pandemic era when countries are still struggling. He pointed out that while recent data shows that Chinese gold demand has been strong over the past 12 months, some US factors could hold back gold prices this month. Investors are still looking at the hawkish factors at the US central bank’s final policy meeting of the year, he said. The revelation that the Fed will slow its pace of rate cuts this year has put the US dollar in a good position, which is not very positive for the precious metal. Another issue Low noted was that the technical outlook for the yellow metal had deteriorated somewhat over the past week. He observed that prices had fallen below the 100-day moving average for the first time in more than a year. Although prices have rebounded in subsequent sessions on the back of buying from investors, he noted that this is also a negative sign for gold.
TVC:GOLDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
Gold price today 1/2/2025Safe haven demand and central bank rate cuts are the catalysts for gold’s rise in 2024, with the precious metal likely to rise more than 26% in the year, its best performance since 2010. Experts say these factors will continue to drive the precious metal in the new year. However, sentiment is likely to turn more cautious given the policy shift under US President Donald Trump. Geopolitical tensions are expected to remain elevated next year, as central banks continue to buy gold, while the US debt problem could return. Donald Trump. All of this will provide safe haven demand for the precious metal... This expert commented that this year will be a bit difficult for gold as the price of this precious metal has increased by nearly 27% in 2024. Prices cooled down in November and December but mainly due to the US election results as it somewhat affected the outlook of the US Federal Reserve (FED) this year. 🔥 XAUUSD SELL 2636 - 2638🔥 💵 TP1: 2615 💵 TP2: 2605 💵 TP3: OPEN 🚫 SL: 2645
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
USD is recovering because of hawkish policiesLast week, the global gold market had a quiet trading week, with prices capped at $2,650/ounce. This week, gold prices are also expected to remain flat due to the tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and pressure from the recovery of bond yields and the greenback. Speaking about gold's movements in 2025, City Index market analyst Fawad Razaqzada said that although the US dollar and higher bond yields could negatively impact gold, there are still some supporting factors that could help the precious metal reach $3,000/ounce. The expert explained that amid persistent inflation concerns, the US Central Bank is expected to be more cautious in its interest rate decisions next year. This is likely to support bond yields and the US dollar, two factors that often reduce the appeal of gold. Higher bond yields have a significant impact on investment demand for the yellow metal, as they increase the opportunity cost of holding these non-yielding assets. “At the same time, the greenback’s resilience, supported by hawkish central bank policies and strong economic data, makes gold more expensive for buyers holding other currencies. These dynamics could limit gold’s upside potential in the first half of next year.” 🔥 XAUUSD SELL 2625 - 2628🔥 💵 TP1: 2620 💵 TP2: 2610 💵 TP3: OPEN 🚫 SL: 2637
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
World gold prices have not changed muchIn its Commodity Outlook 2025 report, TD Securities analysts noted that the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, geopolitical uncertainty and strong central bank demand for gold have pushed gold prices to record highs this year, but capital flows have not provided strong support. "There is no shortage of compelling macro stories that have fueled gold's rally in recent months ahead of the US election. However, the gold rally has not been supported by capital flows. Modules have maintained a 'maximum buy' status since August, confirmed by the largely unchanged COT report. In Shanghai, traders have sold nearly 35 tonnes of nominal gold in recent weeks as domestic investment opportunities have become more attractive. Gold buying has been driven largely by traditional ETFs and China. Fund managers have largely eliminated short positions. At the same time, rising US dollar and US interest rates have reduced the attractiveness of gold to Western capital inflows in the short term."
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
World gold price increased slightlyLooking ahead to gold prices, John LaForge, head of physical asset strategy at Wells Fargo, said during his bank's annual outlook webinar that he won't be paying much attention to the Federal Reserve in 2025. Economists at the bank expect the U.S. central bank to cut interest rates only once next year. He also pays more attention to central bank demand than the opportunity cost of real yields, said the macro investment strategist at Tanglewood Total Wealth Management. Analysts are also paying attention to emerging market consumer demand. In early 2024, gold prices were boosted by record central bank purchases and unprecedented demand from Asian consumers and investors, primarily China. World gold prices increased slightly as the USD decreased. Recorded at 9:35 a.m. on December 26, the US Dollar Index, which measures the fluctuations of the greenback against 6 major currencies, was at 107.940 points (down 0.08%). According to the World Gold Council (WGC), central banks' demand for gold has reached its highest level in more than ten years. This is a clear demonstration of gold's solid position as a safe haven asset, especially when the global geopolitical and economic situation continues to be unstable. At the same time, loose monetary policies and a slower pace of interest rate hikes from central banks have also contributed to creating positive momentum for gold prices. 🔥 OANDA:XAUUSD SELL 2631 - 2629🔥 💵 TP1: 2620 💵 TP2: 2610 💵 TP3: OPEN 🚫 SL: 2638
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
World gold prices slightly decreased as the USD increasedHowever, the precious metal is under some pressure as the dollar index rose sharply and US Treasury yields rose slightly. The Conference Board reported on Monday that its US consumer confidence index fell to 104.7, down from a revised 112.8 in November. The reading was weaker than expected, with economists predicting the index would be largely unchanged. “Expectations that consumer confidence would continue to recover were not realized in December, as the index fell back to its two-year average,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board. Gold is struggling to find its way amid the holiday lull, said James Hyerczyk, an analyst at FX Empire. “The Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and forecast of fewer rate cuts in 2025 are keeping gold under pressure. The precious metal will face key support tests during the holiday week
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
After the US pivoted monetary policy : ??At the beginning of the trading session on December 19 (US time), the world gold price continued to decrease after the US announced the number of unemployment benefit applications was 220,000, down from the forecast of 230,000 applications. This prompted the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to slow down the process of cutting interest rates in the future. Previously, gold investors were disappointed when the Fed sent out an unfavorable signal right after the monetary policy meeting on December 18. The US Central Bank issued a new forecast, showing that there will be 2 rounds of 25 basis point interest rate cuts next year. According to independent metal trader Tai Wong, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell revealed that he will slow down the process of cutting interest rates in the context of persistent inflation. This message from the Fed will make the gold price trend worse in the long term. According to analysts, the gold market has been volatile at times after the US pivoted its monetary policy. Specifically, the FED is expected to cut interest rates by a total of 0.5 percentage points only twice in 2025. This is a big change compared to the FED's announcement in September 2024 that there would be 4 interest rate cuts next year. This move has stimulated a very strong increase in the price of the USD and US bond interest rates. Because gold is priced in USD, when the "health" of this currency is stronger, it will put pressure on the price of this precious metal. Higher US bond interest rates have attracted investors to put capital into bonds, reducing demand for gold.
TVC:GOLDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
The economy is looking to the FedThe Fed has started its two-day policy meeting and is expected to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points. However, the focus will be on the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and dot plot, which provide guidance for interest rates in 2025. While US Treasury yields and real yields both edged lower, the US dollar remained steady. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.379%, while the DXY index rose 0.07% to 107.01. On the technical front, gold prices maintain their long-term uptrend but are under pressure in the short term. The key support level now is $2,600/ounce, which corresponds to the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). A break of this level could send prices lower to $2,531 – the August 20 high. Conversely, if the price breaks above $2,650, the next target will be $2,670 (50-day SMA), and then $2,700. In addition to the Fed’s decision, investors are awaiting the release of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, to gauge the future direction of policy. Signs that the incoming Trump administration may push for expansionary fiscal policy have raised expectations of a change in the Fed’s stance in the near term.
TVC:GOLDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
World gold price todayGold prices continued to weaken today due to stronger-than-expected important US economic news. The US retail sales report for November showed an increase of 0.7%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the forecast increase of 0.5%. This information made some gold investors worry that the FED may postpone the 0.25 percentage point interest rate cut after the end of the monetary policy meeting in the early morning of December 19. Since then, many people have temporarily stopped trading gold. On the other hand, gold is also likely to have limited purchasing power due to some forecasts of rising inflation in the US, a slowing labor market..., prompting the FED to stop cutting interest rates early in 2025. At that time, the USD could increase in value very strongly, negatively affecting the world gold price trend. The question now is whether the Fed will be more hawkish or dovish than the market has been expecting. Investors are now expecting the Fed to be more cautious in easing monetary policy, given the impact of Donald Trump’s agenda on inflation.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
XAUUSD - Daily | BREAKOUT IncomingSimple Trading - Ascending Triangle Gold is overall bullish so if the pattern breaks, it should break to the upside. Of course, if gold can not maintain bullish momentum, it may result in a further decline in the price. This pattern may not break out until the end of Dec. maybe into Jan. with this in mind we are still about to take price action trades on the smaller time frames. Levels to look out for: BULLISH: 2673 - 4hr FVG low 2683 - 4hr FVG High 2700 - supply and demand BEARISH: 2624 - 1hr Head and Shoulder Target 2610 - Daily FVG High 2590 - Daily FVG Midpoint 2575 - Daily FVG Low 2560 - Daily Double Bottom
CAPITALCOM:GOLD
by nikdobii
Gold price forecast December 17, 2024World gold prices increased slightly as the USD dropped. Recorded at 9:45 am on December 17, the US Dollar Index measuring the fluctuation of the greenback with 6 major currencies was at 106,470 points (down 0.08%). The gold market is cautious as investors prepare to receive the decision of the US Federal Reserve (FED), which is expected to reduce interest rates with a "hawkish" message after the monetary policy meeting. last of the year. Although gold prices maintained a sideways trend ahead of Wednesday's decision, one analyst said the message from the Fed could lead to a larger correction in the precious metals market. This medium-term upward trend is mainly driven by new economic policies, including deeper corporate tax cuts and increased tariffs on imports to the US. These policies could cause inflation to increase in 2025 and beyond. Wong also highlighted that real yields on the 10-year note have rebounded sharply after testing the 1.9% support level last week. If it increases to 2.29%, the opportunity cost of holding gold will be higher, making gold less attractive to investors.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by FalCol_TradingMaster
An exciting week with many important economic data.World gold prices decrease when the USD increases. Recorded at 9:40 a.m. on December 16, the US Dollar Index measuring the fluctuation of the greenback with 6 major currencies was at 106,570 points (down 0.11%). According to Naeem Aslam - investment director of Zaye Capital Markets, gold investors should mentally prepare for the possibility of gold prices weakening next week. The main reason comes from the US Federal Reserve (FED) reducing expectations about cutting interest rates, in the context of inflation still being "persistent". Lukman Otunuga - market analyst at FXTM - gave a neutral comment on gold prices in the short term. According to him, the trend of this precious metal will largely depend on the policy message that FED officials give in the upcoming meeting. Otunuga emphasized that, if the FED continues to maintain its "hawkish" stance, this could limit the ability of gold prices to increase as investors gradually narrow their expectations for stronger interest rate cuts next year. 2025. On the contrary, if the FED signals to loosen policy in 2024, gold prices could increase to 2,700 USD/ounce or higher. 🔥 XAUUSD SELL 2656 - 2654🔥 💵 TP1: 2630 💵 TP2: 2610 💵 TP3: OPEN 🚫 SL: 2665
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster