Gold-trading
GOLD Should recover a bit from this mornings news. An inverted hammer has been formed on the 1H chart. TP is the .618% fib
Continuation Pattern for EURUSDAfter some indecision, last week a doji candle was formed in weekly major support level. We can now se on the daily chart some head and shoulders pattern indicating long for EU in the short term.
We are expecting it to reach the 61.8 fib retracement on the green line, and then a possible downside breakout.
This will probably stop at the -27% extension to then retest major levels, and continue to move to the downside.
This is a long term trade, which on it's way, will leave a lot of intraday opportunities.
THE OVERALL SENTIMENT IS SHORT FOR THE LONG TERM.
Gold – minor correction likelyGold’s drop to a low of $1181.70 yesterday pushed the daily RSI into the oversold territory. The daily MACD shows loss of bearish momentum despite prices dropping to fresh multi-month low.
Hence, a corrective move to $1200 is likely.
On the downside, a strong support is seen directly at $1171.85 (61.8% of Nov 2015 low – Jul 2016 high).
GOLD IDEAS --- ***IF IT DOESN'T BREAK 1305 I WOULD RECOMMEND ENTERING SHORT HERE.
IF IT BREAKS ABOVE, IT WILL GET TO NEW HIGH AND WE MIGHT CONSIDER LONG
Gold chart suggests Clinton victory…but, The monthly chart above clearly shows repeated failure at the falling trend line resistance coupled with the monthly 50-MA topping out.
Prices failed to hold above $1301.35 (50% Fib of 2008 low - 2011 high).
The chart thus suggests a corrective move is more likely, which means Clinton victory.
However, charts could lie as markets have been reacting to Polls which are unreliable as proved by Brexit referendum earlier this year.
Trump victory could easily lead to a bullish break above the falling trend line.
Gold – stuck at confluenc e of weekly 5-MA & weekly 200-MADespite Gold’s bullish close on Tuesday above 200-DMA, caution is advised as the pair is having a tough time breaching the confluence of weekly 5-MA and weekly 200-MA noted around $1274 levels.
Also note that Weekly 5-MA is sloping downwards, hence area between the moving average and resistance at $1290 could be dominated by sellers.
On the lower side, breach of support at $1260 would open doors for a revisit to $1241 (Oct 7 low).
Gold – Re-test of Thursday’s high Despite the retreat from the previous day’s high of $1274.60, the subsequent rebound from weekly classic R1 level of $1261 in the wake of a bullish 5-DMA and 10-DMA crossover and a bullish break from symmetrical triangle suggest prices could revisit $1274.60 and may breach the same for $1280 levels.
Only a daily close below $1253 (23.6% Fib retracement of move from 2011 high to 2015 low) would signal bullish invalidation.
Gold – Close below $1311 would be bearishThe falling top formation as shown by the three monthly candles and a retreat from the monthly high of $1352 if followed by a close today below monthly 50-MA level of $1311 would open doors for drop below $1300 levels next week.
Below $1300, a major support is seen around $1284-1260 levels.
On the higher side, only a daily close above $1350 would signal continuation of the rally from December lows.
Gold – Bulls eyeing $1350/OzGold’s repeated failure to breach 100-DMA support earlier this week followed by a sharp rise on Wednesday and a day end close back above 100-DMA suggests the metal has switched gears and is heading towards flag resistance of $1353/Oz.
A daily close above $1353 would mean a larger uptrend from the December low of $1047 has resumed.
Gold – Potential bullish divergence on hourly chartOn the left hand side is the hourly chart, while the daily chart is on the right hand side.
Gold’s retreat from $1353 followed by a day end close below 50-DMA on Thursday suggests prices could retreat further to $13330 levels, although support of 10-DMA at $1327 would hold due to oversold nature of the hourly RSI.
Moreover, a rebound from $1330-1327 levels would result in a bullish price RSI divergence. The subsequent move higher could run into resistance around $1350-1353 levels.
Gold – Trades below monthly 50-MAGold ended August below monthly 50-MA after having failed to take out long-term falling trend line resistance.
Prices currently trade below monthly 50-MA and monthly 5-MA seen at $1312 and $1300 levels.
Congestion is likely as investors are seen sitting on the sidelines ahead of the August non-farm payrolls data due for release tomorrow.
Gold – Descending trend line remains intact, What's next?“Everything that happens once can never happen again. But everything that happens twice will surely happen a third time.” ― Paulo Coelho, the Alchemist
To a greater extent, the same logic is applicable in markets as well.
The falling trend line was established at the end of October 2012 and was put to test last month. Prices failed to take out the same last month and an attempt this month was thwarted as well.
So the price has already failed twice to take out falling trend line resistance… does that mean the third attempt will fail as well?
The stage looks set for another failure as –
A re-test of falling trend line could happen on Friday or next week if the non-farm payrolls and wage growth figure in the US is horribly weak.
However, August figures are usually weak and are revised higher in the subsequent months, hence markets are unlikely to read take them seriously. Thus, another failure at falling trend line hurdle looks likely.
Gold – Flag and Pole formation on monthly chartPrices failed to hold above Flag resistance and now appear on track to test monthly 50-MA level of $1318 levels.
Also note; the monthly 50-MA has topped out and is now moving lower…towards monthly 100-MA. Losses this month and in the next month could result in a bearish monthly 50-MA and 100-MA crossover. The bullish crossover must have happened in 2002.
Only a month end closing above flag resistance (bullish break) would signal continuation of the long term rally.
Gold – Bearish move could gather paceGold prices retreated in Asia as treasury yields rose, leading to broad based USD strength on hopes Fed’s Yellen could come out hawkish during her speech at Jackson Hole event on Wednesday.
On the daily chart, we have a bearish break from symmetrical triangle, with prices now within touching distance from 50-DMA support of $1329/Oz.
The daily RSI also shows a head and shoulder formation and a breach of neckline would signal further losses in gold prices.
To the downside, a break below 50-DMA could yield $1311 (July 21 low).
On the higher side, a break above $1358 (Aug 16 high) would signal bearish invalidation.
Gold – Daily chart is a mess!Gold’s daily chart is a mess as we have an expanding channel formation, whose upper end is still acting as a support/resistance.
We have a rising trend line that was breached on August 8 and since then multiple attempts to get back above the same on daily closing basis have failed.
And now we also have a symmetrical triangle formation.
Amid all this the money flow index is dropping, which goes down well for the bears when viewed in light of multiple failed attempts to retake rising trend line.
Selling is seen gathering pace once $1337 is breached (symmetrical triangle support). The metal could target $1300 in this case
On the higher side, bulls are advised to wait for a convincing close above $1363.
Gold daily outlookGold’s retreat from the high of $1356 on Friday despite strong US retail sales data marked a rejection at the rising trend line level.
The long upper shadow of Friday’s candle along with a bearish daily close suggests the metal could break below $1333.50 and open doors for a drop to $1310 (July 21 low).
On the higher side, only a day end close above $1358 (Friday’s high) would signal bearish invalidation and expose $1375-1380 levels.
Gold – Awaits breakout from symmetrical triangle
We have symmetrical triangle formation on the daily price chart as well on the RSI chart.
We await the breakout, although the odds of a bearish break are high given the failure to sustain above the rising trend line.
A day end close below $1333 (23.6% of May 30 low – July high) would also trigger a bearish break from symmetrical triangle on RSI and open doors for $1300 levels.
On the higher side, a break above expanding triangle resistance could yield a test of symmetrical triangle resistance.
Gold – sideways action likelyGold’s sharp decline on Friday and a breach of the daily rising trend line suggests the rally from $1312 (trend line support then) has topped out for now at $1367 levels, however, a loss of momentum could restrict gold in the range of $1330-1342.
Bulls may make a comeback only if prices see an day end close above $1342 (expanding channel hurdle).
Gold – Poised to test July highsGold’s rebound from daily rising trend line on July 26 followed by a dip and recovery above $1356 (July 29 high) amid bullish daily MACD and bullish daily RSI suggests prices are likely to test July highs around $1375. We may extend gains to $1380 (38.2% of 2011 high – 2015 low).
On the lower side, only a daily closing below rising trend line support currently seen at $1333 (also 23.6% of May 30 low – July 11 high) would suggest bullish invalidation.
Gold – Multiple Inv. Head and Shoulder breakout on weeklyGold weekly chart shows a bullish break from two inverse head and shoulder formations after Brexit vote followed by a rise to $1375 and a drop to inverse head and shoulder neckline support followed by a rebound of the same and a break above $1358 (61.8% Fibo extension).
The entire price action suggests we are heading towards $1400 handle by next month or so.
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The bullish view goes down well with the fact that August is usually a bad month for risk asset.
