Gold's longterm update.Channel,elliott and Fibonacci levels.Technical analysis is a powerful tool for creating a better sense of the market and making some predictions based on price actions but it's useless or it has minor importance when a big news with catalystic role appear.
XAU/USD seemed unable and weak to break and mostly established the 1263$ level resistance being in a shakeout area for 20 days more or less.
First it was the US descision to launch cruise missiles on a Syrian base that helped XAU/USD reach the 1271$ level intraday but then the selling power sent back the price back at 1253$ level,once again bears confirmed their dominance at these levels.
Two days later president Trump decided to provoke North Korea through twitter,as it's logical with war possibility rising at the background XAU/USD finally took this extra push it was needed to break and established the 1260$ area for good.
XAU/USD now is at 1287$ and try to break that resistance that it holds since 2016/11 to reach the highs of 1315-1320 area.
As i mention before at my articles published at 26 January of 2017 and 26 march of 2017(SEE RELATED IDEAS BELOW) we had a 5 Elliott waves structure and now we wait the ABC correction waves before making new highs.
Remember that these violent rallies may favor the short-term trader but the same way the went up they can come down due to absence of supports,so be careful with your trades at these moments of extreme volatility due to geopolitical reasons.
I believe we might reach the 1315$ area where we have the 23,6%FIB level and a strong reistance and then i expect a pullback as i show at the chart until 1240$ levels near lows of wave 4.
TECHNICALLY
We can see at the chart the 5 Elliott waves and the corrective waves ABC.
We can also noticed the ascending channel of XAU/USD.
Fibonacci levels well repsected.
LEVELS TO WATCH:
BULLISH SCENARIO: 1290$ GOOD RESISTANCE
1315$ GOOD RESISTANCE AND 23,6% FIB LEVEL
1370$ PREVIOUS HIGHS
BEARISH SCENARIO:
1278$ GOOD SUPPORT AND 38,2% FIB LEVEL
1263$ VERY STRONG SUPPORT
1253$ VERY STRONG SUPPORT AND 50%FIB LEVEL
1233$ SUPPORT
1222$ VERY GOOD SUPPORT AND 61,8% FIB LEVEL
1200$ GOOD SUPPORT PSYCOLOGICAL LEVEL
1185$ YEARS LOWS
HAPPY TRADING GUYS!
Gold-trading
Gold eyes support at $1239Gold’s fourth failure to hold above 200-DMA in two weeks, despite US-Syria tensions coupled with the fact that Friday’s daily close was below 200-DMA suggests the prices could be heading lower to support at $1239.
On a larger scheme of things, the outlook would turn bearish only after a daily close below $1239.
Gold looks heavy, expecting a sell-offFailure to breach the falling trend line adds credence to the bearish break from the rising channel seen earlier this week. This coupled with the head and shoulder pattern on the RSI suggests the metal is more likely than not to take out support around $1247 and test demand around $1240 levels ahead of the weekend.
Gold intraday outlook – sell-off seen below $1247Repeated failure to retake the rising channel as seen now, if followed by a break below $1247 in the wake of a head and shoulder pattern on the 4-hour RSI would open doors for a quick fire sell-off to $1240 levels.
Only a break above $1260 would revive bullishness
Oro: possibile balzo del toro?Il Macd segnala un incrocio interessante, insieme ad una possibile rottura della media mobile semplice a 20 periodi. La rottura della prossima resistenza in area 1233.90 potrebbe dare spunto ad un ingresso long fino all'area 1251, dove incrocia la resistenza diagonale di lungo periodo (in arancione).
Continuation Pattern for EURUSDAfter some indecision, last week a doji candle was formed in weekly major support level. We can now se on the daily chart some head and shoulders pattern indicating long for EU in the short term.
We are expecting it to reach the 61.8 fib retracement on the green line, and then a possible downside breakout.
This will probably stop at the -27% extension to then retest major levels, and continue to move to the downside.
This is a long term trade, which on it's way, will leave a lot of intraday opportunities.
THE OVERALL SENTIMENT IS SHORT FOR THE LONG TERM.
Gold – minor correction likelyGold’s drop to a low of $1181.70 yesterday pushed the daily RSI into the oversold territory. The daily MACD shows loss of bearish momentum despite prices dropping to fresh multi-month low.
Hence, a corrective move to $1200 is likely.
On the downside, a strong support is seen directly at $1171.85 (61.8% of Nov 2015 low – Jul 2016 high).
Gold chart suggests Clinton victory…but, The monthly chart above clearly shows repeated failure at the falling trend line resistance coupled with the monthly 50-MA topping out.
Prices failed to hold above $1301.35 (50% Fib of 2008 low - 2011 high).
The chart thus suggests a corrective move is more likely, which means Clinton victory.
However, charts could lie as markets have been reacting to Polls which are unreliable as proved by Brexit referendum earlier this year.
Trump victory could easily lead to a bullish break above the falling trend line.
Gold – stuck at confluenc e of weekly 5-MA & weekly 200-MADespite Gold’s bullish close on Tuesday above 200-DMA, caution is advised as the pair is having a tough time breaching the confluence of weekly 5-MA and weekly 200-MA noted around $1274 levels.
Also note that Weekly 5-MA is sloping downwards, hence area between the moving average and resistance at $1290 could be dominated by sellers.
On the lower side, breach of support at $1260 would open doors for a revisit to $1241 (Oct 7 low).
Gold – Re-test of Thursday’s high Despite the retreat from the previous day’s high of $1274.60, the subsequent rebound from weekly classic R1 level of $1261 in the wake of a bullish 5-DMA and 10-DMA crossover and a bullish break from symmetrical triangle suggest prices could revisit $1274.60 and may breach the same for $1280 levels.
Only a daily close below $1253 (23.6% Fib retracement of move from 2011 high to 2015 low) would signal bullish invalidation.
Gold – Close below $1311 would be bearishThe falling top formation as shown by the three monthly candles and a retreat from the monthly high of $1352 if followed by a close today below monthly 50-MA level of $1311 would open doors for drop below $1300 levels next week.
Below $1300, a major support is seen around $1284-1260 levels.
On the higher side, only a daily close above $1350 would signal continuation of the rally from December lows.
Gold – Bulls eyeing $1350/OzGold’s repeated failure to breach 100-DMA support earlier this week followed by a sharp rise on Wednesday and a day end close back above 100-DMA suggests the metal has switched gears and is heading towards flag resistance of $1353/Oz.
A daily close above $1353 would mean a larger uptrend from the December low of $1047 has resumed.
Gold – Potential bullish divergence on hourly chartOn the left hand side is the hourly chart, while the daily chart is on the right hand side.
Gold’s retreat from $1353 followed by a day end close below 50-DMA on Thursday suggests prices could retreat further to $13330 levels, although support of 10-DMA at $1327 would hold due to oversold nature of the hourly RSI.
Moreover, a rebound from $1330-1327 levels would result in a bullish price RSI divergence. The subsequent move higher could run into resistance around $1350-1353 levels.
Gold – Trades below monthly 50-MAGold ended August below monthly 50-MA after having failed to take out long-term falling trend line resistance.
Prices currently trade below monthly 50-MA and monthly 5-MA seen at $1312 and $1300 levels.
Congestion is likely as investors are seen sitting on the sidelines ahead of the August non-farm payrolls data due for release tomorrow.
Gold – Descending trend line remains intact, What's next?“Everything that happens once can never happen again. But everything that happens twice will surely happen a third time.” ― Paulo Coelho, the Alchemist
To a greater extent, the same logic is applicable in markets as well.
The falling trend line was established at the end of October 2012 and was put to test last month. Prices failed to take out the same last month and an attempt this month was thwarted as well.
So the price has already failed twice to take out falling trend line resistance… does that mean the third attempt will fail as well?
The stage looks set for another failure as –
A re-test of falling trend line could happen on Friday or next week if the non-farm payrolls and wage growth figure in the US is horribly weak.
However, August figures are usually weak and are revised higher in the subsequent months, hence markets are unlikely to read take them seriously. Thus, another failure at falling trend line hurdle looks likely.
Gold – Flag and Pole formation on monthly chartPrices failed to hold above Flag resistance and now appear on track to test monthly 50-MA level of $1318 levels.
Also note; the monthly 50-MA has topped out and is now moving lower…towards monthly 100-MA. Losses this month and in the next month could result in a bearish monthly 50-MA and 100-MA crossover. The bullish crossover must have happened in 2002.
Only a month end closing above flag resistance (bullish break) would signal continuation of the long term rally.