Gold – watch for rebound from 50-DMASupport - $1250, 1243, $1230
Resistance - $1260, $1263, $1274
Gold’s repeated failure to stay below daily 50-SMA in last two trading sessions, if followed by a rebound from daily 50-SMA and $1250 and recovery above $1253 (23.6% of Sep 2011 high-Dec 2015 low) would open doors for a re-test of $1263, which if breached would expose rising trend line hurdle at $1274 levels.
On the lower side, failure to sustain above daily 50-SMA of $1250 would expose support at $1243.
However, only a break below $1243 would signal continuation of downtrend.
Gold-trading
Gold – watch for a rebound from 23.6% Fibo supportResistance - $1258, $1263, $1273
Support - $1253-1249, $1243, $1230
Gold’s corrective rally from yesterday’s NY session low of $1243.81 levels could gain further traction if prices rebound from $1253 (23.6% of Sep 2011 high-Dec 2015 low) and break above $1258 (Asian session high), in which case resistance at $1263-1273 stands exposed.
On the lower side, failure to sustain above $1253 would expose yesterday’s low of $1243.81. A break below the same would signal continuation of retreat and expose support at $1230 levels.
Gold – intraday correction likely
Gold’s cut through daily 50-MA at $1249 and drop to $1244 levels has left it oversold on the hourly RSI.
Consequently, a minor corrective rally to $1249-1253 levels could be seen before prices resume sell-off towards $1243 (23.6% of Dec low-May high).
The daily RSI at 44 remains bearish, hence corrective rally could be capped around $1249-1253 levels.
Gold – Rising trend line breachedSupport - $1249, $1243, $1225
Resistance - $1256.70, $1263, $1268
Gold’s breach of rising trend line on Wednesday following the release of hawkish Fed minutes has opened doors for a test of daily 50-SMA seen at $1249.
The bearish close yesterday also marked a downside break from symmetrical triangle formation, thus adding credence to bearish break from rising trend line.
Consequently, support at $1249 could be breached, thereby exposing $1243 (23.6% of Dec low-May high).
On the higher side, only a day end close above $1268 (rising trend line hurdle) would indicate bearish invalidation.
Gold weekly chart outlookWeekly chart shows bullish break from falling channel followed by a rising wedge. Whether prices breach it on the upside or downside could be decided in a next month or so since we have June Fed rate decision and Brexit referendum.
A bullish break could see the prices test supply around a larger falling trend line resistance seen around $1370-1380.
A bearish break would open doors for a re-test of falling channel level now seen around $1220-1200.
Gold – Nervous equities may come to rescueHourly Chart
Formation – Falling channel
Support – 1270, 1263, 1255
Resistance – 1279, 1284, 1295
Rebound from $1256.77 ran out of steam near $1280 levels. If followed by a bearish break below hourly 50-MA (currently at $1270) would shift risk in favor of a re-test of channel support at $1255.
The hourly RSI, at 42.00, remain in favor of bears.
Meanwhile, bears should treat a rebound of hourly 50-MA with caution as such a rise if followed by a break above $1280 could translate into a rally towards channel resistance seen at $1284 levels.
US equities suffered losses in the overnight trade, with DJIA dropping 217 points. Meanwhile, treasury yields are hardly showing any signs of life despite rally in oil. Consequently, gold has little to worry about except technical factors. The data docket is thin as well with just weekly jobless claims due for release. Fed speak due after data release is likely to try and talk up June rate hike bets.
Gold – watch out for a break above $1287Daily Chart
Resistance - $1287, $1300-1303, $1310
Support - $1280, $1270, $1263
Gold dipped to $1278 levels before recovering above flag resistance level of 1280 levels.
With daily RSI sitting well above 50.00 and prices comfortably above key support level of $1263, we may see a break above $1287 (daily high).
In such a case, prices may head higher to $1295-1300 area.
On the downside, $1263 stands as a major support.
Gold to remain on front foot unless Fed rate hike bets spikeResistance - $1300-1320, $1350, $1400
Support - $1253, $1227-1223, $1190
Prices clocked a high of $1287 levels.
Gold’s repeated failure to take out $1227 (23.6% of Dec low – Mar high) followed by a bullish daily close above flag pattern on daily chart indicates prices could cut through $1284 and move towards $1300-1320 levels.
On monthly chart, strong rebound from falling channel marks a convincing bullish break. This adds credence to the bullish action on daily chart.
A break above $1320 would expose $1350 levels.
The bullish bias is at risk if prices see a daily close below $1263, while bears would make a comeback below $1227 levels.
Gold – Head and Shoulder intactResistance – 1237, 1244.12, 1263
Support – 1227, 1219, 1207.69
Gold’s failure to sustain above $1263 on Thursday followed by a break below 50-DMA on Friday indicates the prices could be heading towards head and shoulder neckline seen today at $1219 levels.
Day end closing below $1219 would expose strong support around 1190 levels.
On the higher side, hourly closing above $1237 could shift risk in favor of a rise to $1244 -1250 levels.
Bullish momentum would gather pace only if prices see day end closing above $1263 levels.
Gold – losing height, H&S formation on daily chartResistance – $1255, $1270, $1283
Support – $1237, $1223, $1218
Gold’s failure to sustain above $1260 and a fall back below falling trend line on daily chart has left the doors open for a drift lower to 50-DMA of $1237 levels.
Fall back from NY session high kept the head and shoulder formation intact.
On the higher side, prices need to breach $1255 in order to re-test $1263-1270 (previous day’s high).
Gold – double top breakout on hourly chartHourly chart
Formation – double top, head and shoulder on daily chart
Resistance - $1249.10, $1263, $1271
Support - $ $1235, $1227.12, $1217
Double bottom breakout on the hourly chart has opened doors for a drift lower to $1240-1238 levels and adds increases the likelihood of the metal completing head and shoulder formation.
The head and shoulder neckline is seen around $1217 levels.
Drop in oil and resulting risk aversion and rise in demand for the safe haven treasuries (which offer positive yield) could weigh over metal.
On the higher side, previous day’s high of $1258.05 could be challenged once again if prices rise back above double top neckline of $1249.10
The fundamentals for #gold are Already included in the priceThe fundamentals for #gold are Already included in the price:
Many bulls stories have happened again and again in the gold trade, just in the last year has been talked about massive purchases of gold to increase reserves in a imminent currency war facing a setting dominated by central banks. Stories like the end of QE in US, the plebiscite of Swiss National Bank for hold at least 20 percent of its 520-billion-franc ($538 billion) balance sheet in gold, repatriate overseas gold holdings and never sell bullion in the future. Cuts in tariffs on import prices in India, and other more esoteric arguments like factors increasing demand for religious festivals and massive purchases of raw material for the manufacture of luxury IWatch Apple.
Looking ahead, the lack of inflation across the globe, the concerns over the prospects of rising U.S. interest rates that have pushed the dollar to reach a 12-year high, and other factors associated with increased appetite for equities, mean any potential gains that could be for gold short-lived.
As we observed seasonality in gold prices is accentuated since March, however, the price drop by overbought of previous months in this year has been higher than in previous years. Only the Sell-off in the US stock market could mitigate some of the selling pressure in the gold market, since gold acts as a safe haven against falling equities.