Gold ( XAUUSD ) short terme analysiswww.tradingview.com
on the chart h1, here 3 bullish waves ( waves 1,3 and 5 ) and 2 bearish waves ( waves 2,4)
so we expected en A-B-C Corrective waves .
Gold-trading
The Fed will likely keep interest rates higher for longer1. Schmid of the Fed knows interest rates will likely stay high for a while.
2. Mester of Fed said it was too early to conclude that a re-detection was likely.
3. US data PPI is inconsistent.
4. Fed's Powell says the Fed will likely keep interest rates higher for longer.
5. ECB's Wunsch found no need to cut rates after the first cut in June.
The US April PPI published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics rose 2.2% from a year ago, a new high since April 2023, slightly higher than the previous 2.1%. It rose 0.5% from a month ago, beating expectations of 0.3% and the previous revised figure of -0.1%. Core PPI rose 2.4% year-on-year, slightly above expectations of 2.3%, and rose 0.5% month-over-month, exceeding 0.2% and expectations Previously it was 0.2%.
This data surpasses expectations, showing that the rate of hard emission appears to be getting stiffer. However, the actual performance of this report may not be as shocking as the downwardly revised March data.
Powell's been very clear that the next move is a cut“Bears have had ample opportunity to re-take control of the trend, but ever since the low printed on the NFP report, bulls have been making their way back,” Stanley said. “This week saw a break of the falling wedge, which takes on a similar appearance as a bull flag, and this keeps the door open for continued strength next week.”
Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management, sees the situation as fairly balanced for the coming week.
“Gold’s resilience has been very strong,” Day said, “but I suspect we will see a pullback after another assault on $2,400, so for next week I’ll go with unchanged.”
Adam Button, head of currency strategy at Forexlive.com, is concerned about Asian demand, but believes the uptrend remains in place. “Your story about the slowdown in gold buying from China has me worried, but it’s tough to argue with the price action,” he said.
“We should consider that gold quotes have been periodically updating historical highs since February,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro. “We can also consider the April retreat as a correction to the area of 76.4% of the growth impulse from the minimum close of the day in February to the maximum close in April. In this case, the growth target becomes the area of $2640 (161.8% of the initial rally).”
Wall Street back on the bullish bandwagonAmid cooling geopolitical tensions and a slow week for economic data releases, the gold market ultimately returned its focus to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.
Spot gold opened the week trading just above the $2,300 level, and spent most of the week trading in a $30 range. In the absence of other significant data, gold prices took their direction from Thursday morning’s weekly jobless claims, which surprised to the upside.
In light of Fed chair Jerome Powell's comments that rate cuts remain on the table for 2024, gold traders decided that the high jobless claims print improved those odds, and gold broke definitively above $2,330 just after 10:30 am EDT, climbing steadily for the rest of Thursday and throughout the overnight trading session before attaining its weekly peak of $2,378.56 per ounce around 6:30 am Friday morning. It continued to hold most of those gains throughout the Friday session.
💵 OANDA:XAUUSD BUY 2337 - 2334💵
✔️TP 2350
✔️TP 2355
❌SL 2327
XAUUSD setup institutional tactics Gold trading setup
strategy and discipline : institutional tactics
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Supported jobs figures in the US are worth goldAs at end April 2024, the amount of gold held in London vaults was 8,552 tonnes (a 0.1% decrease on previous month), the lowest holdings since May 2020, valued at $634.3 billion, which equates to approximately 684,132 gold bars.
The market last night received information that the number of applications for unemployment support last week in the US increased sharply compared to the previous week, causing investors to worry that the world's No. 1 economy has shown signs of weakness.
Specifically, the number of first-time applications for unemployment benefits last week was at 231,000 applications, much higher than the forecast of 212,000 applications and 209,000 applications achieved the previous week. The 4-week average unemployment support applications also increased from 210,000 units to 215,000 units last week.
The USD today fell 0.3% against larger currencies after this report was published. A weaker USD makes gold cheaper for buyers outside the US.
Today's data showed signs of a weakening job market, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will lower interest rates sooner than forecast. This sentiment supports precious metals markets, such as gold and silver. Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, determined: "US jobs numbers support gold prices. Hidden buying force appears."
💵 TVC:GOLD SELL 2352 - 2350💵
✔️TP 2340
✔️TP 2330
❌SL 2358
USD heavily influenced by Fed rate expectationsWhen assessing that prospect, there are worse market indicators to monitor than the front-end of the US bond curve. As this chart shows, the daily correlation between the US dollar index and US two-year bond yields over the past quarter stands at 0.89, implying the dollar usually follows movements at the front-end of the US curve.
Gold looks great on he charts, continuing to consolidate above former record highs within a broader uptrend. With RSI breaking its downtrend and MACD looking like it may soon crossover from below, momentum looks to be shifting higher once again. Having tried and failed on multiple occasions to break below $2285 in May, that would provide a decent entry level for longs, should the price return there. A stop could be placed below the level for protection.
Alternatively, should the price get a foothold above $2355.10, that too would be a decent entry level, allowing for a stop to be placed below targeting a retest of the 2024 high above $2430.Right now, the jury is out when it comes to whether we’re witnessing a turning point for the big dollar with futures remaining close to key horizontal resistance with the 50 and 200-day moving averages sitting just above. This zone looms as important when it comes to directional risks for the dollar and short-end rates, managing to repel an attempted break higher last Friday following the release of softer-than-expected payrolls and ISM services PMI data.
Gold Bull Run Is Not Just A U.S. Dollar StoryLast week, I had the satisfaction of web website hosting a webcast on gold and gold mining stocks, and I become satisfied to be joined via way of means of portfolio supervisor Ralph Aldis. Thanks to all who participated!
Regretfully, I`m now no longer accepted to proportion a replay of our dialogue because it become supposed for economic advisors, however there are some key factors I`d want to highlight.
Gold hit a sparkling all-time excessive of $2,432 in line with ounce recently, marking what Ralph and I see as one of the superb gold breakouts because the cease of Bretton Woods. The yellow metal`s attraction as a hedge towards uncertainty, coupled with consistent month-to-month purchases via way of means of relevant banks, has now no longer simply raised the charge ground however need to assist the asset obtain new highs withinside the coming weeks and months.
Gold’s recent surge isn’t just a U.S. dollar story. The precious metal is also making historic breakouts in various currencies around the world, from the Japanese yen to the Chinese yuan and Indian rupee. This global phenomenon underscores the universal appeal of gold as a store of value and a means of preserving purchasing power.
Chinese retail investors are leading a significant influx into the country’s gold-backed ETFs. In March alone, Chinese gold ETFs saw an impressive inflow of RMB1.2 billion ($164 million), marking the fourth straight month of positive flows, according to the World Gold Council (WGC). The investing spree propelled total AUM in gold ETFs to a staggering RMB35 billion ($5 billion) by month’s end.
Gold Falls As US Dollar Rises On Strong Core PCE InflationGolden Dilemma: The rate of the yellow steel has fallen from its excessive as US Dollar`s restoration pushed with the aid of using increased US middle PCE inflation information, placing strain at the cost of gold. The annual underlying inflation information rose at a better tempo of 2.7% from the estimates of 2.6% however decelerated from 2.8% recorded in February. Stronger-than-anticipated figures hose down Gold`s charm with the aid of using lowering the chance of Federal Reserve charge cuts in the approaching September economic coverage meeting. The month-to-month underlying inflation information met expectations, last steady with the preceding studying of 0.3%. This state of affairs favors bond yields and the United States Dollar.
* Technical Breakout: Gold fee changed into traded decrease following previous retracement from the resistance stage 2335.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum sign endorse the commodity to possibly expand its retracement.
* Resistance and Targets: If the bearish momentum persists, there`s a robust probability that the fee will probably head in the direction of 2270.00. Conversely, a breach lower back above the extent 2335.00 might endorse a fashion continuation and probably head in the direction of 2400.50 stage.
Understand how technical evaluation let you on this buying and selling opportunity.
GOLD (XAUUSD) - Scalping/IntradaySELL LIMIT:
R1 - 2353.632
BUY LIMIT:
S1 - 2323.364
Trading Guidelines (GOLD):
Risk Management: Risk no more than 1% of your capital per trade.
Maximum Trades: Limit yourself to a maximum of 2 trades per day.
Trading Sessions: Focus on trading between the London and NY sessions.
Discipline: Execute the order at the identified level.
Stop Loss and Target: Set stop loss at 500 points and targets at 1000-1500 points.
Evaluation: If a loss is incurred, wait for the next day and try again.
Simplicity: Keep the trading routine simple and straightforward.
World gold prices are high and seem quite stable 2300World gold spot rate is round 2,318.eight USD/ounce, down 1.2 USD/ounce in comparison to overnight. Gold futures rate in June 2024 at the Comex New York ground is at 2,330.2 USD/ounce.
At 8:00 p.m. on April 24 (Vietnam time), today's spot gold price on the world market is at 2,320 USD/ounce. Gold for delivery in June 2024 on the Comex New York floor is at 2,334 USD/ounce.
The world gold price on the night of April 24 is about 12.5% higher (257 USD/ounce) compared to the end of 2023. World gold price converted by USD bank price is at seventy-two million VND/tael, including Taxes and fees are about 12.5 million VND/tael lower than the domestic gold price at the end of the afternoon session on April 24.
The world gold price hangs high and appears to be quite stable above the threshold of 2.3 hundred USD.
World gold prices are kept at a high level because investors are still concerned about the situation in the Middle East as well as in Ukraine.
Previously, pressure from the people to create investment pressure hit the possibility that the Israeli government would have to be careful in deciding how to reduce tensions in the Middle East. Both sides also lowered their voices a bit.
However, on April 24, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi warned that if Israel attacked Iran again, it would wipe out Israel. Specifically, the President of Iran said when "it is unknown whether this country will stay or not".
Gold rebounded towards $2330 after an unsuccessfulGold rebounded towards $2330 after an unsuccessful attempt to settle below the $2300 level.
From the technical point of view, gold received strong support in the $2295 – $2305 range.
Gold completed a 50% retracement today with a low of 2,291 before buyers took control and ran the precious metal up to a high of 2,334, at the time of this writing. Earlier in Tuesday’s session the sellers were in control and dropped gold down to below its 20-Day MA to test support around the 50% retracement of the internal upswing. The 50% level is at 2,289. That is close enough given the subsequent bullish reaction following that low.
An upside breakout will be triggered on a rally above today’s high of 2,334, while a drop below today’s low of 2,291 signals a continuation of the correction. Also, gold could trade tomorrow inside day, which would provide a setup for Wednesday. A rally will be heading up into a potential resistance zone that arguably starts from around 2,354. Also, keep an eye on potential resistance around the 8-Day MA at 2,362 and this week’s high of 2,389.
Who is buying gold at this time? bullion is turning to all-time highs again, however this time buyers are fleeing gold miners` shares in droves.
Even gold exchange-traded funds, which use buyers` cash to collect bodily stockpiles of bullion, are contracting as gold costs rise, that's exactly the alternative of what many analysts expected.
The disconnect ties right into a broader fashion wherein the profile of the biggest customer of gold has shifted: buyers are fleeing the gold industry, dumping gold mining shares and redeeming gold ETFs, at the same time as imperative banks across the world, especially in China, have dramatically multiplied annual bullion purchases at some stage in the beyond years.
The chart underneath illustrates this ramped-up shopping for from international imperative banks.
We`re searching at purchases relationship again to 2010. Notice how the extent of gold sold in 2022 and 2023 towers principally different years.
World gold prices went down as the market increasingly lowered eWorld gold prices went down as the market increasingly lowered expectations that the US would cut interest rates. On the other hand, the need to safely hide capital in precious metals has also gradually decreased as the Iran-Israel conflict has calmed down.
Any major stable addresses continue to support gold and any escalation would take prices up to $2,500 an ounce. This precious metal will only stop if central banks continuously buy or return to investing in risky assets.
World gold prices are forecast to increase sharply at any time if the Middle East becomes more unstable. On the other hand, precious metal products are also being slowed down thanks to a rising USD on a global scale. A strong USD puts pressure on gold, thereby restraining the rise of this metal commodity.
Will safe harbor demand accelerate next week?Gold is losing ground as traders lock in the time aggressively. The US Dollar tested a multi-month high today. Normally, a strong dollar would lower gold prices, but the current situation is unique as gold prices are driven by central bank demand and rising geopolitical tensions.
In case gold falls back below $2,350, it will head towards the nearest support, which is in the $2,295 – $2,305 range.
But with the current unstable war situation, combined with the fact that the FED is seriously considering cutting interest rates in the coming period, gold will consolidate its current position and it will be difficult for it to fall deeply.
Gold reached record values consecutively last weekWith gold reaching many consecutive price records, the current investor situation is as follows :
Net-short exposure to yen futures rose to a 16-year high among large speculators
Large speculators increased long gold exposure by 15.7% (+10.1k contracts) and reduced shorts by -7.1% (-8.4k contracts), whereas asset managers are on the cusp of flipping to net-long exposure for the first time in nearly five months
I noted the divergence between asset managers and large speculators regarding net exposure, and with the US dollar rising it seems that asset managers were on the right side of the move. The US dollar benefitted from hot CPI, Fed members pushing back on rate cuts and safe-haven flows from Middle East tensions.
Asset managers decreased short exposure to gold by -9.4% (-7k contracts) and increased longs by 1.1% (+703 contracts), whereas large speculators increased long gold exposure by 15.7% (+10.1k contracts) and reduced shorts by -7.1% (-8.4k contracts).
And that means gold remains on the ‘buy the dip’ watchlist, even if dips may be shallow.
Where will gold's next peak be?The rise in gold prices may be driven by geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as stubborn global inflation. Despite concerns about the delay in the Federal Reserve's easing of US interest rates, investors have focused on protecting themselves against rising price pressures. Now, market attention will turn to the upcoming release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes and US consumer price index data for more information on the direction of interest rates.
According to gold trading platforms, the gold price has risen by $290.42 per ounce, or 14.08%, since the beginning of 2024, according to trading on the contract for difference (CFD) which tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Gold is expected to trade at $2273.85 per ounce by the end of this quarter, according to global macroeconomic models and analyst expectations. Looking ahead, we expect it to trade at $2500 per ounce in 12 months.
Amid this performance, the yield on 10-year US Treasury notes fell to 4.37% on Tuesday, after reaching 4.46% on Monday, the highest level in four and a half months. Overall, traders are preparing for the release of US inflation today to adjust their bets on the timing of a US rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Currently, the probability of a cut in June is around 57%, down from 60% earlier in the month. Last week, hawkish comments from several Fed officials, coupled with strong employment and manufacturing data, raised investor concerns that interest rates will need to stay higher for longer. Policymakers, including Fed Chairman Powell, suggest that a rate cut on federal funds this year may be appropriate, but there is no need to rush it as the Fed needs more confidence that inflation is moving sustainably back to 2%.
Gold will regress or move sideways during this timeGold has pulled back a bit in today's Tuesday trading session as it looks like we will continue to try to get higher.
Regardless, I think this is a slightly stressed market and it might be worth noting that the relative strength index is well above the 70 level.
All in all, I think the $2,200 level below would be an excellent support barrier similar to the 50-day EMA at $2,150. On the positive side, I think we're going towards $2,500 but sooner or later you have to get out because people are going to take profits and of course you need to attract more buyers into the market. Speaking of buyers, it's probably worth noting that the world's Chinese banks are net buyers of gold in general and that's a bit of a miss in the market, but they also have to be aware that the storylines have Is it beneficial for gold? Now and most certainly there are geopolitical worries. So with all that said, I'm just looking for opportunities to buy gold cheaper when prices drop. I have no interest in selling in this market.
Nonfarm prediction April 5, 2024Gold fell back after an unsuccessful attempt to stabilize above $2,300. Traders withdrew some profits after the strong rally.
Gold is still in an overbought state so there may be more downward momentum in the near future.
Prediction information from Nonfarm is currently inconsistent on one side when the Average Income Index / Hour is growing strongly at 0.3% but Nonfarm is predicted to decrease compared to the previous period and Nonfarm prediction ability decreases. is extremely high when unemployment claims are at a high level and because of this, the Fed is also highly likely to reduce interest rates to attract more jobs.
The Fed will loosen monetary policy in JunePCE inflation measures for December and January had been raised, signaling that inflation changed into worse than to start with estimated. For example, the center index alternate changed into revised to 0.5% in January, up from the formerly mentioned 0.4%. To apprehend the importance of the upward push in inflation, it's miles crucial to don't forget that the month-to-month center inflation price changed into 0.1% in October and November, and 0.2% in December.. The headline PCE index rose through 2.5% ultimate month from a yr earlier, hurriedly from 2.4% in January. The month-on-month alternate withinside the center index (which excludes meals and energy) rose through 0.3%, quicker than the tempo in October, November or December. Especially extremely good changed into the revision in figures posted through americaA Bureau of Economic Analysis. PCE inflation measures for December and January had been moved upward, signaling that inflation changed into worse than have been first estimated. For instance, the center index alternate changed into revised to 0.5% in January, up from an already improved 0.4% mentioned earlier. To apprehend the importance of the acceleration in inflation, it's miles crucial to bear in mind that the month-to-month center inflation fees had been 0.1% every in October and November, and 0.2% in December.
Gold price forecast: XAU/USD trades with a slight negative biasGold prices fell nearly 2,155 USD in early trading on Monday in Asia.
The FOMC will likely leave interest rates unchanged at its March meeting on Wednesday and will be in no rush to cut rates.
Chinese policymakers emphasized the need to continue implementing proactive fiscal policy and strengthen the country's economic recovery.
China's February retail sales and industrial production will be released on Monday.
Gold prices (XAU/USD) hovered around $2,155 during early Asian trading hours on Monday. The decline in yellow grades was supported by stronger-than-expected US February inflation data, which could delay interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Meanwhile, positive forums surrounding stimulus measures from the Chinese government or strong demand from China could lift gold prices.
The University of Michigan revealed today Friday that its Consumer Sentiment Index was weaker than expected, falling to 76.5 in March from a level of 76.9 in the previous reading. Meanwhile, inflation expectations in 1 year and 5 years remained unchanged at 3.0% and 2.9% respectively. Finally, US Industrial Products improved by 0.1% MoM in February from a downward revision of -0.5% MoM in January.
XAUUSD - Signal UpdateXAUUSD H4
Price dumped yesterday following the cluster of inflation data we witnessed, US stock indices whipsawed, XAUUSD dumped beyond our support on the LTF, but held on the H4.
A slight bounce was we are currently witnessing, before the next potential downside leg. US stock market volume to follow in 1 hour 45 minutes time. Lets see what it brings.
XAUUSD Bull run due a correction?XAUUSD exhausting evidently around this 2185 price. Previous legs upside have rallied significantly and moves sideways (consolidated). We are now starting to see price scallop over and exhaust somewhat.
LTF structure break is currently active and this could be the start of a deep correction from swing low of 2040 to swing high of 2195.
