Gold - Short and Long Term Trading Idea - 24 Feb 25In the beginning of the last week of February, we expecting Gold to decline. There are several factors on small time frames, but also appear signs on larger time frames.
In fact it is difficult to predict an asset when it discovers new higher highs, but there are methods to determine the turning points. In past few weeks we expected price to close down to psychological level of $3'000 and it is close, but we don't expect to reach it. So in this case we enter in short positions with long term swing target of over $200.
We publish 2 trading ideas in one: one is more intraday, another one is long term swing trading idea.
Gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-24-25 : Breakaway PatternToday's pattern suggests the markets will attempt to make a Breakaway move.
I believe this breakaway will be to the downside after watching the rejection near the 609 level on the SPY play out and the breakdown of the Excess Phase Peak pattern over the past 2+ days.
However, if the breakdown I suggested (above) does not happen, I suggest the markets continue to FLAG SIDEWAYS into a FLAG APEX near the end of this week.
The SPY's trend is such that I see it either breaking down hard over the next 2-3 days (confirming the Excess Phase Peak breakdown) or stalling back into the FLAG formation and reaching the Apex near the end of this week.
That means traders need to prepare for one of two major price events: a continued major breakdown or a consolidation/reversion back to the 605-608 level within a sideways FLAG.
What I expect is a breakdown in price. That seems the most logical. But, after watching the markets continue to flag sideways over the past few weeks, I know the markets can stay illogical for longer than I can try to short this top. lol
Gold and Silver look ready to rally. This could be a huge upward move and very powerful for skilled traders.
BTCUSD looks ready to break downward. And I think a breakdown in Bitcoin would be timed with a breakdown in the SPY/QQQ as well.
This is going to be an interesting week. Start off by letting the markets try to settle today (for the first 10 to 30 minutes). You can't kick the markets to do what you want.
After watching this moderate pullback in pre-market trading, we need to see how the price will attempt to trend.
Get Some.
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GOLD INTRADAY consolidation supported at 2920The GOLD (XAUUSD) index pair price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. The recent intraday price action appears to be an overbought consolidation after reaching the all-time high on 20th Feb ‘25.
The key trading level is at the 2920 level, the consolidation price range and also the current daily pivot level. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 2920 level could target the upside resistance at 2955 followed by the 2968 and 3000 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of the 2920 support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for a further retracement and a retest of 2890 support level followed by 2880 and 2663. .
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DeGRAM | GOLD pullback from resistanceGOLD is in an ascending channel between the trend lines.
The price is moving from the upper trend line and resistance level.
The chart formed a bearish engulfment during the resistance retest.
We expect the pullback to continue.
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BURGERUSDT Falling Wedge Breakout – 120%-130% Gains BURGERUSDT has recently completed a breakout from the Falling Wedge pattern, and it has already retested the breakout level successfully. A Falling Wedge breakout often signals a shift from a downtrend to a potential uptrend, and this retest confirms that the breakout level is now acting as a strong support. With the price stabilizing and holding above this key support level, BURGERUSDT is set to continue its bullish move. The projected gains from this point are significant, with an estimated range of 120% to 130%+, as the market looks ready to resume its upward momentum.
The volume accompanying this breakout is a key indicator of the strength behind the move. Good volume during the breakout and retest confirms that market participants are supporting this price action, and the move is not likely to be a false signal. With the retest successfully holding at support, BURGERUSDT has solidified its position for the next leg up. This suggests that the asset is primed for continued growth as it begins its upward trajectory, offering substantial gains to those who act at this critical point.
Investors have been showing increased interest in BURGERUSDT, recognizing the potential for growth after the breakout and retest. As more traders see the strength in the price action and volume, more buying pressure could be expected, further propelling the price higher. With the breakout behind it and strong investor confidence, BURGERUSDT is well-positioned for a rally toward its projected 120% to 130%+ target. The technicals are looking favorable, and the market sentiment appears to be positive.
Traders should keep an eye on BURGERUSDT as it consolidates above the retest level. Any signs of further bullish continuation could provide an opportunity to enter before the price moves higher. With the technical setup and market dynamics aligning, BURGERUSDT represents an exciting opportunity for those looking to capture high returns in the next phase of its rally.
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XAUUSD The top isn't very far off.Gold (XAUUSD) has been rising non-stop since the November 2024 bottom, which later transitioned into a Channel Up. The market is no stranger at all to such Channel Up patterns, in fact it has been the most dominant rising formation of this Bull Cycle since the September - October 2022 market bottom of the Inflation Crisis.
The previous 4 completed Channel Up patterns, rose by a minimum of +18.57% and a maximum of +23.48%, so the average rise since a pull-back low has been more than +20%. Those technical pull-backs hit the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level in 3 out of 4 occasions.
Base on the above conditions, we believe that Gold will top either by the end of this month (+18.57%) or the next (+23.48%), with the Sell Zone designated within those ranges. Similarly, the Buy Zone can be between the two potential 0.382 Fib levels.
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24/2 Today's Market Analysis and SignalsGold technical analysis.
Daily resistance 3000,
Support below 2892
Four-hour resistance 3000,
Support below 2930
Gold operation suggestions: Gold 4-hour level enters high-level fluctuations, with 2920-2915 area as support below, maintaining high-level strong fluctuations, the daily level upward trend remains unchanged, gold prices will rebound every time they step back on the 10-day moving average, the key support area, bulls will strengthen after touching it. The short-term bullish trend remains unchanged.
From the current 4-hour analysis, the support below continues to focus on the vicinity of 2930, and the short-term pressure above focuses on the 2940-45 line. Focus on the 2930 line support at the four-hour level. If the four-hour closing price falls below 30, it will be bearish. The overall trend continues to rely on this range to maintain high selling and low buying, and patiently wait for key points to enter the market.
BUY:2930near SL:2925
BUY:2892near SL:2888
Use small size, control risk
GOLD short-term analysis, shock range 2915~2950Gold has risen for 8 consecutive weeks. According to the time period calculation, it has reached the key time window. In the general upward trend, 7-9 consecutive rises are regarded as a turning point in the medium and short cycle (changing time window). Therefore, the upward space of this round of bullish trend is gradually compressed. Entering the end, the daily chart price maintains the previous high and adjusts below. The price has formed a wide range of high-level fluctuations for three consecutive trading days.
At present, the MA10/7-day moving average is shrinking, and the RSI indicator is running above the high 70 value. Be careful of the high-rise and fall of the medium. The short-term four-hour chart Bollinger band closes to the upper track 2950 and the lower track 2924. The current price is adjusted at the middle track 2937, and the moving average sticks to the RS1 indicator at the middle axis 50. The trading idea of gold at the beginning of the week is to sell at the rebound high (pay attention to the opportunity of band layout).
Last week, the price of gold hit a record high of $2,955 before falling back, indicating that the selling pressure at high levels has increased, but the overall trend is still bullish. After eight consecutive weeks of rising, the market has a need for technical corrections. The daily line has been sideways, indicating that the long and short forces are evenly matched, the market has entered a high-level consolidation, and the MACD has crossed, and there is a need for a correction!
The answer is to exchange time for space, waiting for further strong breakthroughs, or brewing a wave of downward corrections? This week, continue to pay attention to the breakthrough of the 2916-2955 range, and follow up after the break.
The strength of Monday this week is the key point for the long and short choices of gold. If gold continues to break upward steadily on Monday, then gold is now showing the form of refueling in the air. If it goes down, gold may be the beginning of a change. The key to gold this week is still at 2955.
Key points:
First support: 2915, second support: 2908, third support: 2893
First resistance: 2933, second resistance: 2946, third resistance: 2955
Operation ideas:
BUY: 2913-2916, SL: 2909, TP: 2940-2950;
SELL: 2947-2950, SL: 2959, TP: 2920-2910;
Golden Opportunities: Navigating the New Era of InvestmentFolks, we're witnessing something truly remarkable with XAUUSD. Gold's weekly uptrend is not just a blip on the radar; it's a beacon signaling a return to the fundamentals I've been harping on for ages. Recall my earlier insights? I pegged the long-term trend in Gold, and here we are, watching it soar. Trump's chatter about inflation and rates? It's like watching a chess game where each move by the Fed could be influenced by such rhetoric. The market, my friends, seems to be betting on this narrative, pricing in these potential shifts.
Now, let's not forget the basics. Historically, precious metals dance to the tune of real interest rates - those inflation-adjusted numbers. Sure, during times of market panic or geopolitical tension, Gold might get caught in the crossfire as either a collateral darling or a safe haven. But in these calmer waters, it's the real rates that dictate the dance. So, keep your eyes on the prize. Gold isn't just shining; it's setting the stage for what might be a golden era in investment. Watch, learn, and maybe, just maybe, enjoy the ride as we navigate these waters together. Stay vigilant, and may your investments be as golden as your opportunities.
Horban Brothers,
Alex Kostenich
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however I advise to Place Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest.
Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at 2935.0 (swing Trade Basis) Using the 4H period, the recent / swing high or low level.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
Target 🎯: 2820.0 (or) Escape Before the Target
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GC1! "The Gold" Metal Market is currently experiencing a Bearish trend., driven by several key factors.
💠 Fundamental Analysis
The GC1 contract is influenced by global economic trends, monetary policies, and commodity market fluctuations. Central banks' cautious approach to interest rates and inflation management impacts gold prices.
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GDP Growth Rate: Global economic growth slows down, with the US GDP growth rate at 3.3% in Q4.
Inflation Rate: Inflation trends show moderation, with the US inflation rate at 1.0% annualized.
Employment and Labor Market: The US job market remains solid, with 353,000 jobs added in January.
💠 COT Data Analysis
Institutional Traders: 55% long, 45% short.
Retail Traders: 52% short, 48% long.
Large Banks: 57% long, 43% short.
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Market Sentiment: 40% bullish, 60% bearish.
Trader Sentiment: 29% long, 71% short.
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- Institutional Traders: 60% bullish, 40% bearish
- Hedge Funds: 55% bearish, 45% bullish
- Retail Traders: 55% bullish, 45% bearish
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Bullish Trend: 45% likely.
Bearish Trend: 55% likely.
💠 Overall Outlook
GC1 prices may fluctuate due to central banks' monetary policies, inflation trends, and geopolitical tensions. Investors are cautiously optimistic, with a focus on technology and innovation-driven sectors.
Key Factors Influencing GC1 Prices
Monetary Policy Adjustments: Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.
Inflation Trends: Global inflation rates.
Geopolitical Risks: Middle East tensions and commodity market fluctuations.
Technology Sector Resilience: Growth potential in AI and semiconductor fields.
Cryptocurrency Market Volatility: Bitcoin's impact on traditional markets.
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Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
📌Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions.
📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
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MY WEEKLY FORECASTING AS WELL AS AND TODAY TARGET INCULDED 2970XAUUSD market currently on 2945.00 Acoording to time frame H4 bullish trend if market WILL break the key point 2955. then it WILL BE TOUCH on 2970 if MARKET break my resistance level then IT WILL BE BEARISH on 2900.00
target 1 2960
target 2 2980
target 3 3000
resistance level 2930
World gold price today"Gold's increase over the past two months has exceeded the normal trend, so there may be a correction. However, I think this decline will only be short-lived and insignificant. The reasons why investors buy gold are still there, while North American investors have not increased strongly."
"Gold reached a record high of nearly 2,955 USD/ounce on February 20. However, technically, it is starting to show signs of being susceptible to a downward correction. The increase of more than 13% from the beginning of the year until now may cause investors to falter and slow down their buying momentum."
The world gold market continues to fluctuate strongly due to the impact of President Donald Trump's policies. Kitco News' latest weekly gold survey results show that industry experts are cautious about the yellow metal's short-term prospects. Meanwhile, retail traders are optimistic, with prices forecast to continue rising this week.
XAUUSD - 1hr | Wyckoff EventSimple Trading: Distribution Phase
First, we can see that gold has started to consolidate. Once we see this, we look back at previous candles to identify the patterns in this phase:
(1) preliminary resistance
(2) the last buy
(3) a retest to confirm support
(4) confirm resistance without making a higher high.
(5) Higher high (typically a FAKEOUT)
We are waiting for the price to confirm the last step (6) to complete the pattern. If the price falls to SUPPORT, creating a LOWER LOWER, the Distribution Phase is complete. Expect gold turn to remain bearish.
Falling as low as 2815.
Trade Idea: XAUUSD Long (BUY LIMIT)Technical Analysis
1. Daily Chart (Macro View):
• Trend: Strong bullish trend, price at 2933.30, nearing overbought RSI (69.87) but not extreme.
• MACD: Strong bullish momentum (MACD 54.58 > Signal 56.73), indicating sustained buying pressure.
• Resistance Level: Around 2945, with room to test or break.
• Support Level: Around 2813.30.
2. 15-Min Chart (Mid-Term View):
• Trend: Pullback within the bullish structure.
• MACD: Flatlining around 0, signaling consolidation.
• RSI: 42.55, suggesting room for upward movement.
• Key Zone: Price hovering around 2933, consolidating before potential breakout.
3. 3-Min Chart (Entry Timing):
• Trend: Recent short-term pullback.
• MACD: Bearish crossover but flattening out.
• RSI: 32.63, nearing oversold levels, indicating possible short-term bounce.
Fundamental Analysis
• Gold Bullish Sentiment Drivers:
• Geopolitical Risks & Inflation Concerns continue to drive safe-haven demand.
• Dovish Fed Expectations: Market anticipating potential rate cuts later this year, weakening USD and supporting gold prices.
Given the strong bullish macro trend and short-term pullback nearing oversold levels on lower timeframes, a long position offers the highest probability setup.
• Entry: 2928.00 (slight pullback to minor support & oversold RSI on M3)
• Stop Loss (SL): 2918.00 (below recent lows & strong support zone)
• Take Profit (TP): 2948.00 (breakout above resistance and continuation of bullish trend)
This offers a 2:1 RRR. FUSIONMARKETS:XAUUSD
Weekly and Monday analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed lower as the Consumer Sentiment Index declined. Last Thursday, I mentioned that the weekly chart suggested continued downside potential, and with Friday’s sharp decline, the weekly MACD has once again turned strongly bearish. Since the weekly MACD failed to form a bullish crossover and has now resumed its downward trajectory, this move can be seen as a whipsaw pattern followed by renewed selling pressure.
On the daily chart, the Nasdaq has dropped to the 60-day moving average, and the MACD has crossed below the signal line, triggering a sell signal. However, since Friday’s daily candle alone does not fully confirm the sell signal, today’s price action will be key in determining whether the sell signal is fully confirmed. The market decline was primarily driven by concerns over weaker consumer spending, tariff-related inflation expectations, and broader economic uncertainty. Since a large bearish candle has formed on the daily chart, the market should be approached with a sell-biased strategy. Given the strong resistance zones, selling near the 3-day moving average upon any rebound would be an effective approach.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has dropped sharply, pushing the signal line below the zero level. However, a short-term bounce may occur due to oversold conditions, making it important to watch for early support levels in the pre-market session. A range-bound approach remains favorable in the short term.
Crude Oil
Crude oil closed lower, pressured by expectations of increased oil supply from Iraq. On the daily chart, a buy signal appeared on Friday, but as mentioned earlier, it was not fully confirmed. Instead, oil closed lower, leading to a failed bullish signal and renewed downward momentum in the MACD. This shift in momentum suggests that selling pressure is increasing, making it more likely that oil will struggle to sustain a bullish breakout.
On the weekly chart, the MACD has not yet crossed below the signal line, meaning that some rebound potential remains. However, if oil closes the week with a bearish candle, a weekly sell signal could be triggered. The $70 level remains a key support zone. Until $70 is broken, oil should be treated as range-bound. However, if $70 is breached, downside momentum could accelerate, making a sell-biased strategy more favorable.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has dropped below the zero line, while the signal line remains above it. This suggests that some support may still exist near $70, but if the signal line also drops below zero, selling pressure could intensify further. Risk management is crucial for long positions in this environment.
Gold
Gold closed flat, remaining within a range-bound market structure. On the weekly chart, the bullish trend remains intact, but the market is now in a potential correction zone. On the daily chart, the MACD and signal line are nearly converging, making today’s price action critical in determining whether gold will break higher or enter a consolidation phase.
On the 240-minute chart, gold is trading sideways at recent highs, reinforcing the range-bound nature of the market. The MACD failed to maintain bullish momentum and has started turning downward, but since it remains above the zero line, even if gold declines, it is likely to bounce back within the range. However, if the 240-minute MACD falls below zero and the signal line follows, this could trigger a sharp correction following the recent rally. Traders should watch this development closely.
This week, key events include NVIDIA earnings(Wednesday), U.S. GDP report(Thursday), PCE inflation data(Friday). As the week progresses, market volatility is expected to increase, making risk management a top priority.
Wishing you a successful trading week!
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Weekly Market Forecast Feb 24-28: SPX, NAS, DJI, GOLD, ...This is a FUTURES market outlook for the week of Feb 17-21st.
In this video, we will analyze the following futures markets:
ES | S&P 500
NQ | NASDAQ 100
YM | Dow Jones 30
GC | Gold
SIL | Silver
PL | Platinum
HG | Copper
The USD continues its bearish ways this upcoming weak. It's currency counterparts will likely see some upside this week. Especially the JPY.
Patience and an ear to the news will be the best way to approach the equity markets. The same would also apply to news sensitive commodity markets like US OIL, Gold and Silver.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
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