Gold
Gold - Bitcoin Close to a Vital Ray. Volatility Alert.Gold, in terms of Bitcoin, is getting close to an important ray that crosses through the two significant tops.
Should we expect a strong reaction?
If we take a look at the third rejection from the bottom, we can see that it was able to get below the bottom ray but quickly reversed upward. So, we should definitely expect a strong reaction to the upper ray. Especially, as the BTCUSD price was reject at the linear ray that connected the last two bull peaks, this should be treated as seriously.
The 1 day EMA400 is above the MA400, which means that price is likely to rise to hit it, although it has entered the KC (Keltner Channels/EMA Bands), so I wouldn't count on the EMA400 being hit.
Saying that, it will act as resistance at about the same place as the upper ray.
What should we expect?
If gold breaks the upper ray, then we could be in for a very significant rise in price (BTC).
If gold is rejected, then we should expect a decision on direction by the start of August at the latest. If it takes that long, then we should expect to see gold drop to about 0.0248BTC.
We can look for clues in the RSI, depending on which way it breaks out. On the weekly chart, the RSI peaked at 65, not yet in overbought territory.
What to do?
As gold, and charts in general, do not offer a BTC pairing yet (with the exception of tethered gold on a crypto exchange), you'll have to use this chart as a guide and watch both Gold and BTC priced in something like USD or, the oldest currency still in use, GBP.
Gold has been up for a significant amount of time , is overbought and recently hit a Fibonacci Retracement level when priced in USD. If gold cools off and Bitcoin rises then the lower ray won't take long to encounter.
Gold in BTC could pump very up very high and reverse. This would seem likely caused by BTC crashing in that scenario, however, Bitcoin might be entering a bear market. I suspect it will either be very short or very long, based on the 6M and 12M RSI.
Main takeaways:
The gold and bitcoin markets are about to get very volatile, so take caution/avoid high or any leverage.
Use the GOLDUSD chart and change the currency to BTC for clues on direction in the coming days or weeks.
This could lead to a long term direction, but unfortunately, you cannot add alerts to a chart with an altered pairing, so perhaps use the PAXGBTC chart and add alerts there.
[*}BTCUSD hit the 1 day MA/EMA400 at the bottom and is getting close on this chart. I suggest adding BB400 (at various SDs) and KC400 to your charts, even if you use BB20.
You might want to use HLC Area instead of candles/bars as price appears to jump around willy-nilly else.
When you find a chart difficult to read, try swapping to BTC for more clues. If the chart is Tesla, then you might even want to try Dogecoin!
In addition to these charts, the BTC Dominance chart shows that BTC has hit the same pitchfork line that it hit when the first alt season began! So, I expect a strong move there too.
So, if BTC does rise then we might get an alt season very soon.
This is my first Idea that I've published, so please forgive any mistakes, omissions or poor formatting. I am open to critical feedback.
I just wanted to put this out there as I haven't seen anyone cover this online. If you have or know of related ideas, then please
share, as I am always interested in finding ways to predict major market moves.
SILVER: Will Go Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 32.557 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 32.295..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
GOLD: The Market Is Looking Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️
The price is near a wide key level
and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 3,327.25 Therefore, a strong bearish reaction here could determine the next move down.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 3,299.56.Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Potential Reversal in Gold After Completing Widening Formationhello guys!
The 4H Gold/USD chart exhibits a classic Broadening Formation (also known as a Megaphone Pattern), marked by higher highs and lower lows, reflecting increased volatility and market indecision. This pattern is identified with three key swing points on both the upper and lower trendlines:
Point 1 and Point 2 formed the initial boundaries of the pattern.
Point 3, recently touched, completes the structure by testing the upper boundary of the formation near $3,238, suggesting a potential bull trap, as illustrated in the schematic overlay.
just look at:
The price has sharply rallied to the top of the widening pattern, aligning with the third high, often a strong signal for reversal in this setup.
A rejection from this level is anticipated, supported by the bearish projection arrows targeting multiple demand zones.
Bearish Target Zones:
$3,180 – $3,160: Previous consolidation zone.
$3,140 – $3,120: Mid-pattern volume area with past price sensitivity.
$3,060 – $3,040: Major support zone with a strong volume node and previous reaction area.
Volume Profile Insight:
The volume profile shows significant activity in the $3,040 zone, reinforcing it as a major demand area where buyers might step in again.
__________________________
Summary:
This setup suggests a potential bearish correction after a strong upward move. If price action respects the pattern, traders may look for short opportunities from current levels with the outlined targets. Watch for confirmations such as reversal candlesticks or breakdowns of minor support levels.
GOLD v DXY in breakout move --- HVF hunt volatility funnelAlways good to measure against the DXY not just the USD value
Not perfect of course as it is mainly the Euro and Yen but still insightful.
Been watching the relationship for a while
currently breaking out to the upside
HVF theory means this should be a violent expansion
Target 1 coming up.
Gold can exit from wedge and drop to support levelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. Price action on Gold has shown strong bullish momentum earlier, as it broke out of the previous upward channel and started forming an upward wedge. The rally gained traction once the price left the buyer zone between 3006 - 3025 points, pushing through multiple resistance levels and creating a new structure of higher highs. After the breakout from the wedge’s support line, the price continued to grow and eventually reached the upper boundary of the wedge pattern. Here, we saw a clear reaction and reversal, signaling potential exhaustion among buyers. Currently, the price is trading just below the upper wedge resistance and has already made a pullback after the latest local high. Given this structure and the fact that the wedge pattern is tightening, I expect gold to reverse again and decline toward 3270, which is my first TP. If pressure continues, the price may drop to the 3210 current support level as TP2. The reaction from the upper wedge boundary, combined with weakening momentum and a strong support area below, supports my bearish outlook for now. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
GOLD - After upward movement, price can correct to support areaHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
After a long, steady climb inside a rising channel, Gold pushed through local resistance and gained momentum.
The move extended beyond the channel's top, marking a fresh high near $3240 points, attracting strong attention.
But after this sharp push, the price began losing steam and rolled into a soft pullback phase.
Now, Gold is holding just above the $3160 area, retesting the zone that was previously broken upward.
Volume is slowing down, and the price action shows hesitation without follow-through on the upside.
I believe Gold could roll over from here and revisit the $3130 support area in the coming sessions.
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
GOLD On The Rise! BUY!
My dear friends,
My technical analysis for GOLD is below:
The market is trading on 3327.7 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 3342.3
Recommended Stop Loss - 3320.2
About Used Indicators:
A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Bullish continuation?The Gold (XAU/USD) has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 3,300.14
1st Support: 3,245.08
1st Resistance: 3,376.40
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Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
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XAU/USD at a Critical Juncture: Uncovering the Key Levels for ApHere is the technical analysis of the gold/US dollar (XAU/USD) pair on the daily timeframe for today, April 18, 2025, identifying key support and resistance levels based on the latest available data:
⸻
🔹 Current Price:
The price of gold reached an all-time high of $3,357.40 per ounce, driven by growing concerns about tariffs, which Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell described as "much larger" than expected, leading to slower economic growth and higher inflation.
⸻
📊 Technical Analysis (Daily Timeframe):
• Overall trend: Upward, with higher highs and lows, indicating continued positive momentum.
• Moving Averages: The price is trading above all major moving averages, including the 20-day simple moving average at $3,114.60, supporting the uptrend.
• Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI remains in the overbought zone, which could indicate a potential short-term price correction.
⸻
🔻 Key Support Levels:
1. $3,317.20 – Immediate support reflecting a previous high.
2. $3,305.65 – Medium-term support.
3. $3,292.80 – Additional support reflecting a previous consolidation zone.
⸻
🔺 Key Resistance Levels:
1. $3,335.00 – Current resistance that was recently tested.
2. $3,350.00 – Important psychological resistance level.
3. $3,375.00 – Potential resistance if the upward momentum continues.
⸻
⚠️ Additional Notes:
• Technical indicators are showing overbought signals, which could lead to a short-term price correction.
• In the event of a correction, the above-mentioned support levels may be potential entry points for investors.
• Upward momentum remains intact, but it is advisable to closely monitor technical indicators to identify appropriate entry and exit points.
XAUUSD: 1H Channel Up bottomed and is rebounding for the new HHGold is neutral on its 1H technical outlook (RSI = 52.820, MACD = 3.110, ADX = 23.525) and as it just crossed under its 1H MA50 and rebounded, we have the conditions for the new bullish wave of the short term Channel Up. We are aiming for another +4.45% rise (TP = 3,425).
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Gold - Heading Higher For Another +30%!Gold ( TVC:GOLD ) won't stop any time soon:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Back in 2015 we witnessed a significant rounding bottom formation on Gold, starting the next major bullrun. With the all time high breakout back in the end of 2023, this rally was just confirmed and after the recent trendline breakout, Gold can still head much much higher.
Levels to watch: $4.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Gold XAUUSD Intrady Move 17/04/2025🟨 XAU/USD Technical Analysis – April 17, 2025
Timeframe: Intraday (M15/H1)
🔍 Overview:
The gold shows a bullish structure overall, with price currently in a corrective phase. Two key demand zones are marked, which align with prior structure and order block formations. The projection shows two potential bullish scenarios — both suggesting high reward-to-risk trades.
🔹 Key Zones to Watch:
First Buy Zone: 3311–3315 (Upper Grey Box)
Reason: Previous demand zone + minor structure support + potential higher low.
Buy Signal: Look for bullish engulfing or break of descending trendline from current correction.
Target: 3354
Stop Loss: Below 3304
Second Buy Zone: 3292–3296 (Lower Grey Box)
Reason: Stronger support from previous consolidation + demand zone.
Buy Signal: Reversal candlestick (e.g., pin bar / engulfing) or divergence on RSI/MACD.
Target: 3354
Stop Loss: Below 3285
🔔 Note for Confirmation:
If price reverses before entering the first zone, wait for a break of structure (BoS) above 3328 to confirm bullish momentum.
If price drops to second zone, wait for a reversal signal (e.g., hammer, morning star) before buying.
Avoid FOMO entries; let price confirm demand reaction.
Hit follow, like and comment.
Are US Tariffs Similar To The COVID-19 Global DisruptionThis video is in response to a question asked by one of my followers on TradingView.
He specifically asked if the current US Tariffs create a similar situation to the COVID-19 supply disruptions and how it may result in longer-term market disruptions.
In this video, I try to answer these questions and highlight the differences I see related to what is happening now vs. the COVID-19 shutdown.
It is an interesting question.
I certainly see similarities, but I also see vast differences in terms of how the global markets are attempting to address the US tariff issues.
First, the current tariff issues are somewhat self-inflicted, not something like COVID-19 (unavoidable).
Second, the global central banks acted in concert to present immense liquidity to support a global shutdown with COVID. I don't see that happening right now.
Supply-side disruptions are evident, but we'll see how they play out over the next 60- 90+ days.
Longer-term, I hope these tariff issues are resolved before the global economy moves into a deeper recession. I will state that hard assets are likely to take a hit over the next 60-90+ days across the globe.
Any moderate (think 15 to 35%) slowdown in production, shipping, and consumption across the globe is going to be felt all over the planet. It is not going to be isolated to just one or two areas.
This is the smackdown that I don't believe anyone is really ready for. And that creates the urgency to resolve the tariff issues asap.
Hope this helps.
Get Some.
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Gold Is Forming a Bull Flag : Targeting a New ATH?Hey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring XAUUSD for a buying opportunity around 3280 zone, Gold is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 3280 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
GOLD: Target Is Up! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️
The price is near a wide key level
and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 3,305.34 Therefore, a strong bullish reaction here could determine the next move up.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 3,336.25.Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Gold - Chasing Parabolas is Hard to DoThere's a quote from legendary investor John Templeton that goes like this:
"The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell."
This is contrarian, of course, but there's also a lot to it if we try to unwrap it. But first I want to start off even broader than that. I try to often remind myself of just how uncertain the future is and just how pointless it is to try to predict. It can be hard, to be sure, especially if you're around the business of speculation. But, spend a long enough time and see enough 'sure things' turn out to be disappointments or backfires, and I think it becomes a bit simpler.
I don't look at analysis as predictive. I look at it as probabilistic. But even then those probabilities will have a degree of uncertainty because that future will always be vulnerable for some type of surprise. My aim instead is to seek out the prospect of asymmetry; ways to risk a dollar in order to make two, or possibly three.
In analysis, I largely lean technical because I tend to think that most of the 'known knowns' get priced-in fairly quickly and pretty well. Perhaps there is some edge in there somewhere, but my information flow isn't great enough to allow me to have an inside angle against investment banks. While I do think that fundamentals get priced-in fairly well I do not think that markets are perfectly efficient as there is a clear process of price discovery. The chart, however, is a pretty clear depiction of where price has moved and I don't need to concern myself as much for the reasons as to 'why,' if I can focus enough on the 'what.'
I think there are two tenets of technical analysis that are of importance: A) Trends exist, and there's often a reason for them. and B) Support and Resistance can mark inflection points in a market, because trends do not price in linearly. It's the higher-lows that show you bulls' response to pullbacks and that's what really allows for that next higher-high to show up. It's a clear illustration of shifting sentiment, shown perfectly on the chart.
And this is what takes us back to that quote from Mr. John Templeton...
It's when price is forming those highs that we tend to get most excited. Because we can see it - visually - with our own eyes, that trend or bias showing up in real-time. This is when we might get FOMO coursing through us, compelling us to buy even if it doesn't seem smart, even if we haven't thought about 'what if,' even if we haven't entertained the very rational idea that 'this may not last forever.'
It's just part of the human condition, really, and it's why a lot of retail traders end up buying tops as they let their excitement get the better of them.
Now, Mr. Templeton said the best time to buy is the time of maximum pessimism and that leans very contrarian. And taken to an extreme, this can be an excuse to fade every move that shows up or every breakout that takes place, and that can be a painful way to go about matters. But, there may be a way to hedge that statement in a trend-riding basis as saying the optimal time to establish longs is when the prospect of a reversal has started to rise. Or, to put otherwise, it's when that excitement isn't coursing on a fresh breakout; and instead, after a pullback that has shown that the trend is not infallible. It's when the uber bulls couldn't imagine anything other than continued rip in the trend grow silent, instead fearing that they may get caught holding longs from a top.
In gold the market has been ripping higher for more than a year. But when it seemed most quiet was when it was most opportunistic, such as the bull pennant that brewed in Q4, or the pullbacks that have shown up along the way. We had one of those a couple of weeks ago and it started to seem as though a larger reversal could take hold. But - a clean support hold at 2956 was followed by a doji on the daily chart - and then bulls crowded back in to rush up to another fresh all-time-high.
Again, on Monday of this week another pullback showed up, this time a slighter move with price tilting down to 3200. But bulls responded in a big way and then ran another fresh all-time-high just a day later.
Now, eventually one of these pullbacks could extend and turn into a multi-week or perhaps even multi-month type of event, similar to the Q4 triangle that made up the pennant. But, at this stage that bullish trend that has taken on a parabolic nature continues to press and there's no indication yet that it's over.
There remains support potential and this can be followed for pullback setups. The closest zone is the 3245-3250 area, and if this price comes into play and bulls come in to hold lows around that prior resistance, this could be an illustration of a building higher-low. Below that, 3150-3167 is of interest, as this was resistance earlier in April and, to date, hasn't shown much for support. And below that, there's 3050-3057 which was a point of resistance that also hasn't yet shown as support.
Even the 3k handle can be considered as the April lows rest around the spot of prior resistance, from the March highs, at 2956.
With a trend that's been this one-sided there's a lot of room for possible profit taking; but it's not until there's been a clearer shift of sentiment that we can say that the trend is dead.
Does this mean that we'll be able to predict anything? Because the trick of Mr. Templeton's quote is that predicting 'maximum pessimism' or 'maximum optimism' is just as pointless as trying to predict price. Because it is price itself that will denominate that sentiment! If price continues to tank then, yeah, people are going to get more and more pessimistic and that does not mean that it's automatically a great time to buy (nor sell)!
No, but waiting for pullbacks in clear trends is a way to take a risk-efficient approach towards speculation, while trying to keep our own emotions in check and allowing for us to stick to a plan. Which, for a trader, is one of the more pragmatic ways that one can go about the endeavor of speculation.
James Stanley
Updated Structure & Trend (April 17 – Pre-Weekend Trading)🧠 Updated Structure & Trend (April 17 – Pre-Weekend Trading)
✅ HTF (D1, H4): Price has made a new all-time high at 3357, extending the bullish run — but we're now deep in premium exhaustion territory.
🟠 M30–H1: First signs of distribution and internal CHoCH on M15 are showing. No follow-through above ATH. Price is stalling, likely waiting for NY volume.
⚠️ Volatility is low, and Friday is a market holiday, so any manipulation or rejection will likely happen today.
🔼 New ATH: 3357
This makes previous zones like 3333–3340 less relevant for traps.
Focus shifts to the true inducement zone:
🔻 3355–3365 → Main sniper short zone, valid only with clear M5 structure (BOS or reversal FVG).
🔻 Key Sell Zones (Updated):
3355–3365 → Final inducement / exhaustion zone near new ATH
3342–3345 → OB retest below weak high, valid only if confirmed with bearish PA on M5
🟢 Key Buy Zones (Same):
3284–3288 → OB + FVG + discount zone
3260–3265 → H1 equilibrium and last clean demand
3230–3235 → Deeper reentry zone if we get a flash crash before NY
📊 Trading Logic:
If NY session spikes again into 3355–3365, we're ready to snipe with precision.
If price fails to reclaim 3345 and breaks M5 structure, we target early shorts.
On a clean dump, we look for longs in the 3280–3260 range, with confirmation.